10:41 – MatsExtrude
Well observed!
I wonder if they were more afraid of their own blocking units than of the AFU..
11:04 – Johan No.1
It is that kind of silence you get when you have small children – dead silent and then you know that something big has been torn apart, often paint or food over large areas.
At Robotyne it is really balanced right now and at Verbove it is BARS and a composite unit trying to hold out.
The Russians are obviously prioritizing Tokmak which they have to.
According to Wargonzo, UA is moving -towards- (where exactly is undefined) Ocheretuvate.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1698578221061583114?s=46&t=KgAgVD2xilB_MDfQpmWE4Q
It is a surrounding defense where the VDV garrison was pulled out weeks ago to reinforce the front line.
Soon it will start moving near a settlement a bit away because it is a tactically important point to secure, Erik14 was scouting it about a week ago.
I get the feeling that more is happening than we know in this area. The low point is now, breakthrough within reach and no point waiting for RU to get reinforcements in the area.
What I see on the maps at Robotyne is that they are right inside the lines now and then it is a rolling up of the first Suvorikin line. Moving parallel is always easier than moving perpendicular to the defense which is what they are built for and the defense has trained for. Coming from the side or behind is tough for a Russian in a trench who suddenly has a threat outside their prepared firing field.
What we saw from the 3rd Azov brigade was that they reached legendary level in one of the hardest things there is – clearing fortification systems.
That experience has been shared with all brigades and presumably they fight the same way on the southern front now?
With smaller mines and artillery you can increase numbers and have more heavy vehicles but the principle of how to clear fortifications is the same, maybe using IFVs and MBTs for more direct support if they are no longer worried about artillery or drones. We always went straight up and used PBVs for direct fire support.
There are also flashes about movements over at Staromaiorske and there must be because UA needs to keep up the pressure so the southern front command cannot pull units and reinforce over at Robotyne.
Between Staromaiorske – Vuhledar it is quite dense with RU defense but the units have previously taken heavy losses as I recall and that is presumably why they have grouped them so tightly?
We haven’t had a nail-biter like this since Kherson or Lysychansk and then our intelligence situation was terrible in comparison. Now they have unit maps and follow this in real time (yes, you know what I mean…).
Gregg brought up what we discussed that if it goes into lower intensity this autumn, the West can very well be talked down by Russia and then it’s a critical situation. The command knows it and the soldiers in the offensive know it – they have to reach a decisive point now in the Russian low point. We have discussed this quite a bit in the thread before.
That was among the reasons Zelensky ordered the Kherson offensive to be able to show that UA is retaking terrain.
Russia completely lacks blocking units – they are now doing everything to mobilize citizens of other countries and Ukrainians for their war to avoid unrest at home.
They deserve a revolution for what they are doing – arming citizens of other countries when you are weak is probably one of the dumbest things you can do?
If the FSB is reading – is it really the smartest of your plans to arm citizens in countries that are no longer friendly to Russia?
Something I have thought a lot about is how the infantry in this war has defended itself well. Compared to World War II, whole divisions could panic and there were hundreds of thousands surrounded who surrendered.
Here it seems to be a matter of the last bullet on both sides and both sides have managed to retreat when needed.
If UA could have paraded a few hundred prisoners, they probably would have done it?
It is my conviction from my little experience in the military that if UA had pushed with NATO doctrine it would have been the real-life equivalent of the entire training ground full of orange juice mixers.
What we have seen from the 3rd Assault brigade up in Bakhmut is definitely something that works – they fight outnumbered, use the full palette of indirect capabilities and inflict 4-5:1 losses on the barbarians.
What they sacrifice is time but so far they have considered they have it.
More and more videos of night fighting are coming and that Easter egg was one of the better ones. When you spectacularly break into a line like this it feels like you actually did it in the dark.
They face thousands of units and BARS – neither seem to be prioritized for night fighting.
How fun is it to sit in your trench and hear the neighboring trenches scream and then it’s quiet – night after night?
I saw a video yesterday of some kind of equipment similar to the Predator movies, you saw the thermal image of a Russian sneaking through the forest and then being killed.
When this war is over and history is written, everyone will understand how intense it was and the enormous losses both sides took, RU magnitudes greater.
The same applies to how Spetznaz, reconnaissance, VDV and naval infantry fought before they were wiped out – they had good night fighting capability. There were some videos early in the war where UA groups were overrun and it was really hard to watch.
Now someone considered that even the 76 GAAD were newly mobilized and nowhere near expected capability anymore.
RU has been very careless with their valuable resources – the 30 attack divers who died on a hill in Kharkiv were probably the worst so far.
UA has been grinding and building out its (all of the West’s) SOF which today is a formidable field army that is indeed now used to clear fortifications at night on the southern front but they are strong and tough.
I did not share that YouTuber’s picture of northern Luhansk, but he is probably right. I have the impression that the initiative is starting to shift to UA up in northern Luhansk now, except maybe still around Kupiansk for the time being.
Remember Kherson, it came in November – there are months of passable terrain left, which is good now that they got started a bit late and the minefields were more difficult to cross than Budanov told Dengamle.
The Azov push is coming. To take a pause and wait for Russian reinforcements would be almost the dumbest thing to do – UA will keep up the pressure.
We should above all believe in Ukraine and their spring offensive, it delivers.
https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1698351950637453640?s=20
Highly anecdotal that UA has double the artillery against RU on the southern front, highly anecdotal.
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1698465419999244608?s=46&t=KgAgVD2xilB_MDfQpmWE4Q
Perpetua’s anecdotal losses on both sides are, as usual, a catastrophe for RU
https://twitter.com/andrewperpetua/status/1698497443631902736?s=46&t=KgAgVD2xilB_MDfQpmWE4Q
The spring offensive is important, the bow was drawn to the breaking point and everyone pulled in the same direction. That Reznikov was fired is a good reminder that UA is only as strong as they are until they are not. Russian influence is enormous and the country can at any time stop functioning as effectively as it has so far – the West is playing a high-stakes game.
https://twitter.com/teoyaomiquu/status/1698418872053821497?s=46&t=KgAgVD2xilB_MDfQpmWE4Q
Now using ammunition from Iran from 2022.
https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1698547542596755551?s=46&t=KgAgVD2xilB_MDfQpmWE4Q
Remember the discussion about UA using all marine brigades to land on the left bank of the Dnieper, Kinburn Spit, and between Kinburn Spit – Crimea and open threats right in the Russians’ backs?
That was probably a development of the big campaign plan and was discussed sometime this spring?
Now it didn’t happen – all marine brigades are occupied at the southern front but UA has equipped those riverboats with anti-ship missiles, SOF, and LV capability and are wreaking havoc like the worst pirates west of Crimea and south of Kherson.
They will of course continue with that and it is a threat right in the undefended back of the southern front and especially in the area where there are still depots and command posts that are poorly defended.
https://youtu.be/gnRIRP3vo6o?si=2WDrFM02vHDcCvIG
11:28 – Johan No.1
The Russian MoD has sent lots of generals to all the countries where Wagner was – clearly they have taken over instead of Wagner now.
A criminal clan that saw their chance to steal everything from another criminal clan that had become weak.
11:34 – MatsExtrude
Thanks for today’s report!
So far there is no time pressure. It was pretty much at this time last year that the offensive seriously began and it was not until around December 1 that the fronts had fully stabilized.
I trust that AFU will not let themselves be rushed into doing anything rash but that they can keep calm and minimize their own losses even though of course they must not slow down the pace. I am probably most worried that the West will not continue to be able to deliver artillery shells and GMLRS at the needed pace.
Regarding the Dnieper, it would of course have been nice to see that they had managed to establish a more extensive bridgehead but as it is now they tie up Russian troops (and cause them losses) and that is actually quite enough. It may end with them never launching a massive attack that way, but we will see how the Russians act when AFU has advanced further on the southern front.
12:03 – Johan No.1
When we talked about HLR and having to mop up the blood after the German cabinet meetings, we don’t seem to have been completely wrong 😀
https://twitter.com/glasnostgone/status/1698631751382274053?s=46&t=KgAgVD2xilB_MDfQpmWE4Q
13:02 – Johan No.1
There is not a new driver and truck ready every day to replace the 30 that were knocked out.
Those 30 did not deliver 30 loads of whatever they were transporting either.
So the day it didn’t get through – rinse and repeat.
Someone wrote that a brigade needs 18 trucks for maintenance per day. Now maybe the units are heavily decimated but then it is two brigades that do not get their maintenance every day – and it goes on like that.
What they didn’t get yesterday accumulates provided the logistics can’t catch up, which they reasonably cannot.
14:44 – Johan No.1
Yep, it’s probably going as it should roughly and I had earlier fixated on October 1 but the clever ones in the thread informed me then that things were happening all autumn last year.
14:46 – Johan No.1
Yep, since there doesn’t seem to be any mobilization, because they can’t, the question is how many of the trickle of volunteers have been held back for the new CAA they have set up. 25CAA will be exciting to see…
The southern front is now our time’s Kherson – the logistics completely shattered and units are starting to have difficulty holding out – there will be breakthroughs and wild Russian retreats from it all.
We were like this with Kherson too and everyone kept saying – “it never happens so it won’t happen”.
14:47 – Johan No.1
It’s enough to look at the unit maps, check the terrain maps and fortifications to understand that it’s pitch black for the Russians at the southern front.
21:41 – Johan No.1
Rumor of possible mobilization of 200,000 to be ready by November 1 – too little too late?
https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1698781809465589764?s=46&t=5wAn5MR43V04S5wCF_S8AA
21:42 – Johan No.1
As said, it’s a close call at Verbove right now, if they can roll up and achieve a breakthrough there is not much behind (right now).
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1698781427683172387?s=46&t=5wAn5MR43V04S5wCF_S8AA
07:59 – Johan No.1
The Erdogan-Putin meeting with a hidden camera. The unvarnished truth.
https://twitter.com/tweetforanna/status/1698658539001057712?s=46&t=15HEIlagWhxJFQ77nXLh2A
08:31 – MatsExtrude
😂
10:31 – Johan No.1
Those who choose life north of Klischiivka, Daste above has the coordinates and it is the forest north of Klischiivka.
What you can see on Deepstatemap is that they should very comfortably be able to retreat back into Bakhmut?
Since it is geolocated, it is clear where it is and either UA has advanced significantly more than Deepstatemap shows OR it is some company or platoon of Russians who have chosen to surrender without being overrun.
Both are good 😀