2023-09-05 -

12:34 – Johan No.1

Is there anyone else besides me who is obsessively zooming in on all the defense systems and then looking for attack routes on the satellite images?
Fortifications are only as good as they are manned, that’s probably the first truth, and then you have to conduct a dynamic defense battle, which the Russians have proven to be terrible at.

They have already thrown in all their offensive reserves at the front line over a couple of months, but Ukraine broke through.
That alone tells me that Ukraine will win the war – they got through 10 km of minefields, fought their way through all the Russians’ offensive reserves like Spetsnaz, VDV, reconnaissance and naval infantry, broke through and then stepped straight into the next defense line.

On top of that, they have decimated the artillery enormously – UA now has the advantage in artillery duels.

It appears confirmed that UA has gained a foothold in the first of the two Suvorov lines – they have gotten past the minefields, dragon’s teeth, and tank ditch and are in BOTH defense systems on that line.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1698781427683172387?s=46&t=5wAn5MR43V04S5wCF_S8AA
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1698781427683172387?s=46&t=5wAn5MR43V04S5wCF_S8AA

They have also deployed Challenger 2 in the fighting, which suggests a continued very high level of ambition.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1698955909026746863?s=46&t=15HEIlagWhxJFQ77nXLh2A

Presumably, they are now rolling up as many defense systems as they can on both flanks to widen the breakthrough of the first of the two Suvorov lines.

Very high level of nail-biting right now, I must admit, constantly scanning for signs of movement.

There are rumors of tunnels connecting the defense systems and tunnels that the artillery could move through – feels like they have both above and underground to roll up the systems right now.
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1698940369637912614?s=46&t=15HEIlagWhxJFQ77nXLh2A

They were well built with the purpose that UA would never break through – 10 km of minefields and a front line that was aggressively defended and then the artillery in the first and second Suvorov lines that they pulled back into cover after firing?

It feels like UA with its legendary tactics from Bakhmut can now roll this up without interruption.

Then they have to tackle the last line, but if it is retreating Russians who are defending it, they are tired, hungry, and low on ammunition.

There is another unconfirmed rumor that UA has restarted the offensive at Staromaiorske. That makes sense because then they tie down troops there and if RU is too weakened in that area, there will be a breakthrough there instead.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1698952582360715708?s=46&t=15HEIlagWhxJFQ77nXLh2A

Then there is a third rumor that UA has restarted the offensive over at Vuhledar. There it is previously heavily decimated brigades that are defending.

All rumors of course but exciting rumors to watch.

Yesterday the discussion was about the logistics and its non-existence.
They have knocked out the supply lines, depots, and warehouses behind the southern front – the artillery has been heavily hampered and one can guess that food and water are also scarce.

Units carry ammunition and close-range air defense, but if they have been in combat it is used up.

Now the units are moving backward after having been in combat and surely they are short on close-range air defense and anti-tank missiles.
Batteries for the image intensifiers are probably far down the list.

Then there are central depots like in Tokmak and one can hope that UA hits a lot there but it has to get out to the units in the defense systems and for that you need transport.

The rail network is heavily disrupted behind the southern front and we see every day how the vehicle fleet is being decimated.
UA does not have similar problems because Russian indirect fire is never aimed at their logistics in the same way – the Russians chose terror bombing instead.

Ukraine has created a Kherson situation for the Russians behind the southern front now just as they will create it in the darkest Donbass when they get there.

To get logistics forward, they first brought it by train, then large depots to smaller ones near the front to the units’ locations and everything must go forward by truck.

Bridges are knocked out, trains stand still, depots burn, and trucks are like hunted during a fox hunt through clouds of drones.

Every knocked-out truck must be replaced and the logistics that day from that truck failed.
Can RU compensate or will it accumulate, probably they cannot compensate?
30-40 trucks per day is drivers, vehicles, and loads disappearing.

Presumably, there are units at the southern front now that have no close-range air defense left, are thirsty, and no one answers the field radio when calling in indirect fire.

Then again – if the idea is that Ukraine shall beat Russia themselves and NATO overlooks everything – NS1-2, Reaper drones, missiles in Poland, drones in Romania, Transnistria, natural disaster, kidnapped nuclear power plant, and piracy in the Black Sea.

Can’t they at least give Ukraine enough weapons to solve the task?

I understand this will not happen but what would happen if the tide turned in Ukraine and they felt the West was exploiting them in a proxy war and joined Belarus and Russia instead?

It would be a very sad mood.

Then we have the signaling politics to Russia and China, if NATO and the West turn a blind eye to everything they will step on the gas.

Some red line is probably good to have, I myself thought piracy would have prompted a bit more action but apparently not.

It is better than the Balkan wars and WW2 but it wouldn’t hurt to think about signaling politics a bit in between.

I’m also curious about future arms deliveries here, how are they going?

Apparently, four countries are emptying their barns of Soviet armor and Bulgaria is a guaranteed candidate.
Then when UA retakes Crimea there should be a few thousand IFVs and MBTs standing with technical faults – a target as good as any together with all the ammunition.

I’m starting to feel that the West is about to make a mistake here by not increasing deliveries of IFVs, MBTs, missiles, and advanced aircraft.

Partly the war-deciding package in strategic communication that never needs to be delivered but also actual deliveries of vehicles so Ukraine is strengthened instead of attrition rate which makes them weaker.

The offensive consumes enormous resources and they have resourced this offensive but need to build up for the next one (if needed…)

Russia will see immediately if the West stops sending materiel and know that there is an end date.
It was quite a while ago we saw deliveries of MBTs, IFVs, and missiles, right?

Shoigu just announced that there will be no Zapad exercise this year. It would have been perfect to train all the new CAA being set up in an exercise before they are supposed to die in Ukraine?
Strength or weakness?

Regarding the mobilization of 200,000 that is supposed to be proven by a leaked letter. 200,000 is too few and ending November 1 is also too late. Consider here that RU has threatened general mobilization of the country several times but it doesn’t happen.
Last time it happened it was chaos, we’ll see how it goes this time.
However, I must admit I was completely wrong – Russia could apparently mobilize in September.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1698786102629355747?s=46&t=5wAn5MR43V04S5wCF_S8AA
https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1698781809465589764?s=46&t=5wAn5MR43V04S5wCF_S8AA

The warning signs were strategic reserves for the southern front and mobilization – 25CAA and 200,000 do not qualify for that.

Then the UN has announced that it cannot determine whether there is a “genocide” in Ukraine or not – has the world gone mad?

On another level, one might almost begin to suspect that there is an aggressive “white-washing” of the Ukraine war by Russia right now, but that is just a guess.

Sometime history will have to be written, and second best is to remove all war crimes, right?

Then we continue the nail-biting until UA breaks through the last line at the southern front.

13:10 – MatsExtrude

👍

Unfortunately a bit too hectic right now, otherwise I would have zoomed in on the defense systems 🙂

I agree, it’s time for the West to take new steps and at least communicate future deliveries (which hopefully will not be needed). It feels a bit like now that they have promised aircraft (which will not arrive until at the earliest New Year) they have done their part.

Sure, we see new deliveries now and then but none that include tanks, armored personnel carriers, or artillery pieces.
I really hope that it’s because more are not yet needed and that Ukraine has not actually pushed for more deliveries right now… Though I find that a bit hard to believe because the amounts received are not huge.

LV and more long-range weapons like Storm Shadows they can never get enough of, but there hasn’t been much news about that lately either.

By the way, I would be very disappointed if it turns out that AFU runs out of artillery ammunition because we have not stepped up production and the US does not send enough cluster variants.

The UN has become completely toothless and should probably stop worrying about conflicts and instead focus on pure humanitarian projects.

Slava Ukraini!

14:50 – Johan No.1

The mud factory has stopped working so I’m working on scanning defense systems 😀

14:56 – Johan No.1

A gun barrel that fires must – be functional, have ammunition, and be manned by personnel.

If one of the three does not function, there will be no shelling.

Ukraine has done hard work removing the ammunition.
Then you might argue that fewer guns need less ammunition…

They have also knocked out 30 artillery pieces per day for months, some artillery battalion or two per day.

The gun crew is key personnel and likely in short supply.

Then you need artillery radar for counterbattery fire, and UA themselves have stated that they are at least on par, and the RU side constantly complains that they don’t get indirect fire.

The last factor is hitting the target – I don’t think RU artillery today is as accurate as UA’s.

Gun barrels wear out, tracked howitzers get technical faults, and so on, so probably 30-40% of the artillery in the rear is out of commission due to technical faults.

For UA, all of Eastern Europe helps repair equipment.

15:07 – MatsExtrude

😄

17:02 – Johan No.1

Don’t stop believing in these Warriors!
Victory will be Ukraine. Slava Ukraini!🇺🇦

https://twitter.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1699070292809900296?s=46&t=vKd2UCz9qS_ozD0Se6t6Wg

17:04 – Johan No.1

Russian channels report about (for them) worsening situations in Klishchiivka, Andriivka and Kurdyumivka near Bakhmut.

Meanwhile on the Velyka Novosilka axis, Ukrainian attacks near Pryyutne, Zavitne Bazhannya, Novodonets’ke and Novomaiors’ke are also reported by the Russians.

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1699074321610846283?s=46&t=vKd2UCz9qS_ozD0Se6t6Wg