11:14 – MatsExtrude
👍👍👍
12:17 – Johan No.1
👍👍👍👍
18:56 – Johan No.1
Johan No.1 likes this kind of thing 👍
I think it was Dengamle who got Budanov on board who first wanted to give fifty bucks for a Kalashnikov.
https://twitter.com/alexbondodua/status/1700547818430103566?s=46&t=FSKsXNjH-xJNkWp3uPYqaQ
18:57 – Johan No.1
Tank battle, UA won of course 👇
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1700553253346300152?s=46&t=FSKsXNjH-xJNkWp3uPYqaQ
19:35 – MatsExtrude
👍
08:45 – Johan No.1
To cure the thread from all hangover, you can slog through this update, looks good 👍
https://twitter.com/andysch64494719/status/1700751966836498524?s=46&t=NcJQQlzhBFaUy44Mep4i-A
08:59 – MatsExtrude
Interesting thread!
10:54 – Johan No.1
Now it seems Bakhmut is moving, if UA has broken through the line along the railway, then it’s Opytne – lower Zaitseve that matters.
It is still the 3rd Assault brigade fighting – attrition rate is not higher than that.
The reason Bakhmut has been so difficult to force is because RU has rotated in new units every few weeks constantly since the spring offensive started – flycatchers.
They have done this at the expense of other fronts so Bakhmut has fulfilled its purpose as intended.
But of course, people are eyeing Horlivka and wondering how well fortified that city is if there should happen to be a breakthrough…
Up at northern Luhansk, ISW no longer agrees that RU is reinforcing and I also believe that RU has further weakened so that they are past the point where they had the initiative.
The entire VDV is gone and they have 3 Spetsnaz brigades as offensive reserve.
https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1700328727899504789?s=46&t=l4ML6QJ2tm-EjrmONAjXPg
Here David D has tried to compile Russian reserves to Robotyne and this is VDV’s last fight.
Everyone understands how serious it is for RU if they send the entire VDV there.
And it is one of four attack vectors on the southern front…
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1700192978361258004?s=46&t=PVPxKGx5TjaUsBpDLmntmg
Besides VDV reserves, it seems RU is pulling out smashed units and trying to build a new CAA at Crimea?
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1700336051552723319?s=46&t=l4ML6QJ2tm-EjrmONAjXPg
I haven’t managed to get a grip on all troop movements but it certainly looks like RU has invested its last offensive reserve to hold back on the southern front?
The weakest areas now are the Dnipro front, north of Vuhledar and up to Horlivka which is defended by the rebels, and between Soledar – Kreminna RU is very weak.
We know that UA has an offensive reserve left, probably under the 10 brigades we wrote about at the start of the offensive but there is a big hit to deliver at a weak point.
There are also small movements on all these fronts now 👍
You may have noticed that Johan No.1 hasn’t been this nervous since the grill chips ran out and that is due to the whole chain of western support, Russian mobilization, China’s support to Russia and so on.
My assessment is that this is a Russian low point that UA is trying to exploit fully. IF there is no breakthrough down to Azov, OR if UA sees an opening at a weakened front that delivers something equally devastating for Putin then there CAN be a slowed offensive and then there is a great risk that the West will start to waver.
I find it hard to assess UA losses but it is crystal clear that they have gone all in on this offensive and that they are taking heavy losses. Since this is the world’s largest minefield, success is not measured in captured locations but in exterminated barbarians so the defense becomes weaker and an empty hole doesn’t shoot back.
But… if RU manages to refill the holes they are back to square one.
So everything is a race right now – Russian mobilization, strategic reserves that are unprepared and UA spring offensive.
Then the West should already have started promising materiel for the next offensive (if it is needed…) and we don’t hear much. Admittedly, ATACMS was very welcome but my god how late that ammunition is.
That the missile rain has decreased is tragic, Storm Shadow, Taurus and Tomahawk are gathering dust in enormous stockpiles instead of delivering the decisive blow.
The pre-talk before Ramstein was completely absent for quite a while but we also hope that Taurus and more Storm Shadow besides ATACMS will be announced after the meeting.
https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1700362746565423483?s=46&t=l4ML6QJ2tm-EjrmONAjXPg
This one was probably up but a T90M captured in Robotyne
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1700227511198572892?s=46&t=5q1XZ-ivyaAmJ9IB_TjI9A
This map is good to see how humiliating this war is for Putin.
https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1700370436540739719?s=46&t=l4ML6QJ2tm-EjrmONAjXPg
This one totally contradicts the other link that UA lost all older vehicles, this one says T80 is going up. Must be posted since I am impartial and honest.
https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1700358885452726420?s=46&t=l4ML6QJ2tm-EjrmONAjXPg
I think we have already started to hear more of this but there will come a tsunami about how misunderstood Russia is, everything is the West’s fault and that they actually wanted well for Ukraine but rogue commanders have committed terrible crimes for which they are punished.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1700210872969216120?s=46&t=l4ML6QJ2tm-EjrmONAjXPg
The Russian offensive was said to take Kiev in three days and then RU has abandoned 50% of captured territory.
Besides that, Wagner has made a revolution and dissolved and Ukraine has invaded Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk oblasts and each time met zero resistance except tired customs officers.
The war is already lost for Putin and why the West is stingy with materiel so the risk of an out for Putin remains is incomprehensible to me.
Russian low point is now and it must be exploited fully. The indirect combat should not be underestimated and it is directly proportional to how much ammunition UA gets – more weapons with big bang must be delivered.
Top up IFV and MBT too, announce a few hundred more per month, trained crews are available now.