11:23 – Johan No.1
The Russians are dangerously close to succeeding in reaching the stage where the UA war falls somewhat into oblivion.
Already now we are at the point where the Ukrainian at work is considered a bit too bitter and why does he have to ruin every day in the lunchroom with his rants about the war. There are actually other things to talk about, the unit thinks, and has started complaining a bit to the boss because Margareta and Stig feel threatened by his staring gaze when the Ukraine war comes up, which he always brings up.
The G20 completely watered down its statement, the UN wants to try to mediate so RU can come back into the fold if they sign the grain agreement again, and Erdogan appeals to everyone to let relations with Russia normalize.
Putin is also welcome to the next G20 according to the host Brazil.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1700754384068411733?s=46&t=NcJQQlzhBFaUy44Mep4i-A
Just so one understands RU’s subversive activity here – Alex Jones is sitting and praising Putin on Russian TV.
https://twitter.com/ronfilipkowski/status/1700478477244223620?s=46&t=FSKsXNjH-xJNkWp3uPYqaQ
Tucker Carlson also just came out as a Russian influence operator and he had the US’s most watched news program and could steer opinion among broad layers of the public.
No one doubts Trump anymore after his statements about the war…
Russia has quietly been able to take over the information arena and get its narratives out in Western media, we saw it most recently a month ago where most quality Western news outlets published not only written but also their own versions that Ukraine cannot win the war.
It is becoming harder and harder for Ukraine to claim they are making progress when Russia can very easily get out its version and now we have four months of very little territorial gains which makes many start to doubt (except the thread).
Unfortunately, we are starting to reach a point where Ukraine must show something to get continued support here, same as with Kherson in autumn 2022. Simply put, thousands of Ukrainians die because the West is more easily influenced than a teenager.
When history is written we will understand that the number of fallen has been sky-high but that it is magnitudes worse for the Russians.
“number game” as we proclaimed as soon as the 3rd assault brigade started in Bakhmut is a winning strategy but it is a race right now against Russian mobilization and strategic reserves that are not manned or trained and against a wavering West.
We all understand that if RU gets several CAA down to man the last line at the southern front then UA is back to square one.
At Bakhmut UA has crossed the railway and the NS line along the railway is now in various stages of having fallen.
Then the next line is Opytne – lower Zaitseve which they must fall back to and that makes the settlement in Bakhmut completely untenable reasonably.
Half the settlement can probably be retaken and then suddenly the flank defense is overrun again, rinse and repeat.
UA continues to cross the Dnieper and establish new bridgeheads – the threat on the flank on the southern front is very real as intended in the big campaign plan and Rybar is starting to look anxiously towards the area.
https://twitter.com/rybar_force/status/1700553567839433191?s=46&t=FSKsXNjH-xJNkWp3uPYqaQ
I have the impression that RU has reinforced further at Robotyne but can’t figure out with which unit, a VDV regiment has been added but I think there is one or a few more?
Looking at other fronts there are several areas that are heavily weakened and one wonders if there will be a repeat of Kharkiv ahead since UA has historically been excellent at exploiting opportunities. There is an offensive reserve that can be deployed anywhere at weak points in less than a week.
Ukraine clearly lacks artillery in the sense that they do not have enough for all fronts and must prioritize both that and the drone weapon while Europe has countless in its stockpiles gathering dust – we have discussed this to tears already.
RU seems to have distributed VDV between the southern front and Bakhmut where they are actively fighting at both. They have pooled together 3 spetsnaz brigades as an offensive reserve up at northern Luhansk which is not exposed right now.
There are also more incursions into Russia at the northern front but they are not making a PR show of it.
In the ongoing discussion about the war and how the different bars of capabilities overlap in that whack-a-mole, one has to admit that something as simple as mines and time proved to have a very large impact. Not everything needs to be high-tech or next generation, old can also be best.
Now everyone sees how RU has pooled all the reserves they have to Robotyne while the entire Staromaiorske front section lit up from Vuhledar over to Pryutne. The breadth, amount of artillery and number of elite units in the area signal sky-high ambition levels.
This is a bit of the charm of the southern front – UA needs ONE breakthrough and has five attack vectors where RU has existential problems holding out at just one point.
For the archive, Elon himself responded regarding the shutdown of Starlink so now we know how it was.
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1700495712738263443?s=46&t=FSKsXNjH-xJNkWp3uPYqaQ
Azerbaijan – Armenia is an expression of a weak Russia as I interpret it and the risk of conflict is probably imminent.
A whole bunch of republics, oblasts or provinces in the patchwork Russia are probably watching wide-eyed at what is happening and thinking about their freedom.
That more hasn’t happened so far is strange but the Russian colonial empire’s halo probably takes its time to fall maybe.
Then the UN couldn’t decide if it was a “genocide” in Ukraine or not so Wagner decided it for them – shame on the UN.
https://twitter.com/glasnostgone/status/1700480541936537744?s=46&t=FSKsXNjH-xJNkWp3uPYqaQ
Unfortunately, there is quite a high risk that the West will try to normalize relations with Russia as soon as the war is over. We still hope that an end to the war will be to the 1991 borders before the West decides to normalize relations.
A little note that it is mostly outdated materiel coming to the fronts via Crimea.
https://twitter.com/andysch64494719/status/1696447023875068042?s=46&t=O5Ap_ZEfdhbMzCENWwy5Ag
Here we have an official UA assessment of RU numbers – 420,000.
Not including Rosgvardia and FSB but should probably include DPR and LPR?
Was David D so far off in his assessment really?
The occupation power should also reasonably be high in numbers and measure several hundred thousand.
From David D’s numbers we probably had a total of 800,000 or something if we counted 2:1 in losses, don’t quite remember?
Russia concentrated over 420,000 troops in occupied Ukrainian territories – intelligence (ukrinform.net)
There is a lot happening at Bakhmut and the southern front and that UA is out there reclaiming land outside Donetsk which is spectacular.
At the same time as RU has deployed all its offensive reserves now to Robotyne, it is starting up over at the Dnepr front and at Staromaiorske.
RU has completely lost the initiative and is also unable to counter UA’s dynamic warfare right now.
That Ukraine is inside Kursk and Bryansk causing havoc again is downright embarrassing.
They are reactive and it is too little too late, and historically such things have led to major retreats and will do so here as well.
Now the media is starting to say that UA has one month left of fighting – that is Russian influence again.
There are two things that threaten the smashing victory – that RU brings forward large strategic reserves or that the West withdraws. Today RU cannot muster these reserves and the West has not yet backed out.
Thus, positive-positive applies.
11:52 – Johan No.1
The alternative doesn’t have to be that we nuclear bomb Russia and pave over China, but sometimes you feel that a bit more integrity wouldn’t hurt?
Pretty sure that this whole discussion about the colonization of Africa that has completely stirred up the West was Russian influence so that Russia and China could quietly recolonize the country in the most brutal way possible – there is no politician except Macron who is willing to stake their life on that today.
Then it’s good that we in the thread keep the pressure up?
Have noticed some decline in comments lately and also that there are often tangents introduced by new names in the thread that are often unrelated. Attempts at domestic political quarrels, for example.
12:14 – MatsExtrude
Thanks for the situation report!
Good that Ukraine itself has announced that the offensive continues even if it becomes winter. The talk about one month left is exaggerated. Sure, it is harder to conduct an offensive with worse weather conditions but that doesn’t mean it can’t be done. If we were to get there.
Don’t think the West will back down even if the risk exists. If you have said you will support as long as needed, you have to stand by that. It’s more a question of how much support is given. Lack of artillery shells is what I am actually worried about if this isn’t decided within a couple of months.
12:23 – Johan No.1
This one may have been up before but let’s be Sunday satisfied over (not a little) Russian friendly fire of some battalion grade it seems 😀
https://twitter.com/golub/status/1700814689259618440?s=46&t=NcJQQlzhBFaUy44Mep4i-A
12:27 – MatsExtrude
👍More of that!
12:28 – Johan No.1
Now Kadyrov totally lost it and buried some ministers alive 👇
https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/1700800571920228402?s=46&t=NcJQQlzhBFaUy44Mep4i-A
12:33 – Johan No.1
That information is probably planted and Budanov was quick to clarify the facts.
Same here, now that the rocket rain has quieted down, one begins to understand that if UA doesn’t get artillery ammunition in all calibers and then replaces heavy vehicles, it could become a low point.
13:10 – Johan No.1
WARNING – many screaming Russians on the radio and some artillery-engaged Russian soldiers.
15:36 – Johan No.1
Forgive them Lord because we can’t
https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1700861166296207682?s=46&t=qBFS_xK2rtH8SkOTuIiCIQ
10:48 – Johan No.1
This is roughly how the Russian special operation goes 👇
https://twitter.com/tyzhdenua/status/1569384376307273735?s=46&t=NcJQQlzhBFaUy44Mep4i-A