2023-09-12 -

10:56 – Johan No.1

Is it slowly starting to shape up for an okay Ramstein meeting?

People are worried since the memory of the catastrophic NATO meeting has not yet faded, the one that made Putin feel he could start with piracy. But Marder, Taurus, and ATACMS are not going home empty-handed if everything is delivered.
Ukraine really needs to get a battery of rockets that can strike deep targets and fast.

Opytne is starting to emerge as quite exciting because the area is supposed to be swarming with rebels and is relatively easy to defend. So easy to defend that I completely dismissed an offensive down towards the airport when I first looked through the maps.
Since UA themselves are not strong in the area, that should mean the rebels have existential problems, presumably?
There are supposed to be 7 RU units at battalion or regiment level and UA is numerically inferior and has the terrain against them.

According to many Twitter rumors, there were “hundreds” who either fled or surrendered and they had neither ammunition nor food. What is true remains to be seen.

It was also rumored that UA continued beyond the water obstacles down towards the airport but that looks risky and is at best a rumor.

The rebels’ wellbeing has been discussed many times and Muntz is of the opinion that their condition is terrible.

According to the Accent man, there was some more mechanized than what we see on the unit maps but maybe those were the motorized on the other side of the bulge – one is curious if UA has brought in capabilities from the strategic reserve.

They are not yet inside the old ATO line but the fact that there is any movement at all is sensational because this is the rebels’ heartland.

If Ukraine manages to retake that place, there are many exciting weak points along the fronts that suddenly become interesting where it is not at all swarming with rebels.

There are many rumors at the southern front, partly about UA’s impending violent offensive and partly about RU pulling units from other fronts there.
Both seem to be true – UA has increased intensity at both Robotyne and Staromaiorske and especially is moving towards the community of Novoprokopivka which is now supposed to be defended by VDV.
If they managed to enter Opytne as they did, that probably means they have weakened the rebels there as well – there could definitely be truth in that rumor.

At Bakhmut there is also movement and at northern Luhansk the Russians have completely lost momentum in their diversionary offensive.
It is easy to find 4-5 more places where RU is weak and if they have started to empty out right in front of Donetsk, they have probably started to empty there as well and UA has an offensive reserve left that can reach anywhere within a week – a bit of Kharkiv vibes from the whole thing right now. UA has been good at surprising throughout the war.

Taking a step back, UA has the initiative on all fronts today, there is a rumor that they are weak in northern Luhansk but they are not and absolutely not compared to now when RU has pulled away VDV and a couple of brigades.

Then we have the looming large mobilization and I want to make a point that we are in mid-September and we hear nothing. Last time this happened we were flooded with videos.

I belong to those who believe that RU cannot mobilize for half a million Russians in arms is a bigger threat to the elite than the Ukraine war is.

How can the recruiters know that not all who want to make a revolution voluntarily sign up to be armed?
The Russians also have no strategic reserves – they had 20,000 Wagner who could have made a difference but they have been dismissed because they are not trusted.

25CAA is poorly trained and not fully staffed and the clearest sign of this is that they could only send 2 regiments from northern Luhansk.

Other strategic reserves do not exist today but will be talked up heavily during the autumn as a big dark deadly threat.

It is clear on the unit maps that VDV together with reconnaissance and naval infantry are in their last battle – all are at active fronts in trenches or often overused task forces. At the start of the spring offensive, the remaining offensive reserve was around 50,000, maybe a bit more, according to my assessment and today they are heavily decimated.

The only ones who are offensive reserve and can rest are three spetsnaz brigades up in northern Luhansk.

The opsec cover and no big map gains fool the media and the West but Ukraine grinds on relentlessly.

RU defense at Staromaiorske, Bakhmut, and Robotyne has taken absolutely enormous losses.
For example, 83rd GAAB located at Klischiivka announced 1.5 months ago that they were very heavily decimated.
Or the 72nd brigade in Bakhmut which also took existential hits both in Vuhledar and then in Bakhmut.
You see brigades on the maps but units can have 60%-80% losses and that makes Hitler’s map warfare in the bunker seem competent.

A clear sign that things are going downhill is all the newly established units with 1000-series designations which are a base of transferred personnel from wiped-out units and then topped up with newly mobilized and in at least one case T54-55. Battalion strength on those.

The average losses in the spring offensive since May are around 17,500 and I stand by the 2:1 ratio.
It is the spearhead that loses proportionally more and that is after their winter offensive where in February they approached 25,000 dead so UA took the initiative in a Russian low point.

RU defensive fighting was probably partly to try to talk the West out of it which seems to have failed despite our own media’s persistent attempts to assist them.

A second goal is probably to try to hold out until the strategic reserves are fully trained and can man the trenches but if RU mobilizes nothing they cannot resource the strategic reserves.

And they are not fully trained until January anyway.

Looks bleak for the southern front commander thus and he has probably started looking for asylum little by little one hopes.

The funniest thing this week was probably that Putin meets his new best buddy Kim in Vladivostok. According to rumor he flew there so apparently he does not lack courage. I also understand that it is just a disguise so China can increase deliveries but it is still fun to see how tragically lonely Putin is, it nags all the time 😀

11:32 – Johan No.1

Putin makes Hitler seem sane.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1701512281194971563?s=46&t=RGmpcMmaZDSYInwOYtFSOA

11:35 – Johan No.1

Summer is over when the last leaf has fallen from the trees farthest south 😀

Exactly – last autumn RU logistics was in absolute chaos and it will be the same this year. Anyone can see that they are repeating the miracle at Kherson with the entire southern front right now and that it works.

Then that RU soldiers at Opytne had no ammunition – a rumor of course but an interesting one because logistics should work as it should there so maybe they are simply low on ammunition?

11:47 – Johan No.1

Gossips say that the eastern flank on the outskirts of the occupied settlement of Novoprokopivka has been breached and that the tanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are entering the operational space in that area.

https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1701515955589832716?s=46&t=RGmpcMmaZDSYInwOYtFSOA