10:56 – Johan No.1
This thing about Dengamle’s choice of Budanov’s tie was apparently a sore spot, the story goes that Biden laughed so hard he doubled over when he saw the tie and that it was an honest attempt by the spy chief to dress in civilian clothes and according to the latest fashion.
Budanov has his constant liberation-murder plans to implement so he delegated dressing him in the latest fashion to Dengamle and then it became the 1700s. The rumor is that the hotel stay in Mauritius is over as punishment so Dengamle should show up here sooner rather than later.
If by any chance there is a pause, there are always more times Dengamle has made history by failing at something at the wrong time and place to kill time with.
This one is a bit sad, citizens in countries in Africa don’t have great knowledge of Europe and Russian influence can probably go very well in Africa.
Personally, I think it’s time to classify all ABC agencies and the country Russia as terrorist so we can root out Russian subversive activities here, a better opportunity will never come again.
Qanon went way too well in the USA and it is absolutely not something we should allow as democracies – to be tolerant you need to be intolerant of the intolerant, as they say.
There is a difference between freedom of expression and active Russian destabilization.
We have anti-terror laws and it only takes classifying something as terrorism or sponsor of terrorism to prosecute under them – completely legal as it should be.
That doesn’t prevent countries in Africa from welcoming Russia if they want, but it gives the West more means to work against this subversive activity.
https://twitter.com/jayinkyiv/status/1708443015600107760?s=46&t=F23YAdCLQaAH9_SBSUa3fQ
Surtrutn speculated yesterday that there are rumors of a landing on Crimea to show that something is being done.
High risk to say the least but do you remember Davyidiv Brid?
UA crossed a watercourse that became a threat to the Kherson front and in an area where RU was weak.
RU then needed to band together reinforcements on the highway which tried to strike the bridgehead that comfortably lay in defense under its own artillery umbrella and RU took astronomical losses.
Is there defense today down in Crimea – no, not much because most is at the southern front.
How much can UA get over – good question.
When we discussed crossing the Dnieper (a further development of the discussion after the big campaign plan) we thought the marine brigades would rampage over the Dnieper but also between Kinburn Spit – Crimea to open a threat in the rear.
Now the waters west of Crimea are quite empty of Russian fleet and smaller boats can operate there as UA has already shown with the latest raids against Crimea.
But to get over something that can hold out over time probably requires hundreds – at least a battalion with direct communication to all indirect capabilities.
Here comes the kicker, if the Russians pull units from the southern front to strike the bridgehead they need to cross the land bridge down to Crimea and then they are within range of UA long-range weapons and air and army aviation.
Definitely a point on Budanov’s list now that most of the air defense, radar, and direct-fire weapon platforms have been removed from the waters west of Crimea.
Knocking out radar and air defense in Crimea and shooting out all supplies and barracks they can naturally has a purpose, they don’t do it just for fun.
It would be incredibly exciting if RU left Crimea as undefended as its northern border and UA only needs to go on defense northwards and then they have taken the peninsula…
When the FSB has finished reading this and feels it’s time to fortify Crimea it’s also perfect because then they pull units from the southern front so it weakens. Called win-win.
It’s sad when you have to choose what to defend, it’s sad to be Russian command in the Ukraine war, it’s sad to be Russian in Ukraine.
Then you don’t have to limit yourself to that – the entire land tongue between Kinburn Spit – Crimea is full of soft targets and poorly defended.
13:17 – Johan No.1
You had three options before the spring offensive –
– “it didn’t work”
– “we lose so damn much but we go on and then we did our best”.
– go against the West, change tactics fully aware that it is time lost.
They chose the best option in my opinion. Yes, in relation to the alternatives it is a low-loss offensive but sure the losses are high for UA, it’s just that we don’t usually point it out. I see value in not painting it too negatively because it’s not morale-boosting but a drag.
If they reach Azov and the Russians flee in panic down to Crimea and get trapped there – I personally think it’s a 3rd but we’ll see 😀
1. will never happen because with RU that is not an option, I thought so but the knowledgeable in the thread have convinced me otherwise.
2. doesn’t work as long as UA is not allowed to attack into Russia or rain Western missiles into Russia. Had their 10 brigades marched towards Moscow after taking Belgorod and all defense attempts had been storm-shadowed away is probably a possible scenario where they would have had to abandon Ukraine but that didn’t happen because the West considered it could set conditions.
15:32 – MatsExtrude
👍 Thanks for your situation report! (Finally got a little time to drop in here and catch up on reading).
15:40 – MatsExtrude
DENGAMLE may have infinite wisdom due to his advanced age and experience but when it comes to ties I wonder if it might be a disadvantage..
15:43 – Johan No.1
Saw your comment from last night Erik14, couldn’t resist 😀
It was a hell of a night shift from your side with lots of good information I just saw that I’ll steal for tomorrow’s post.
I was really proud that I almost guest-starred in the night shift yesterday, now it’s back to reality again and I’ll probably fall asleep by ten as usual.
15:48 – Johan No.1
Isn’t it time for the EU and the USA to approach China with some proposals that they overlook if China retakes the territory it lost to Russia in the 1800s, on the condition that China remains passive going forward?
Book a meeting, accidentally leak the talking points, and then cancel the meeting?
15:54 – MatsExtrude
🤣 👍
17:25 – Johan No.1
UA has broken through the 56th AAR from the 7th division south of Verbove.
Looks good as VDV folds.
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1709224932754727307?s=46&t=_5DWeyujZu9tCpTxUSdWzQ
17:27 – MatsExtrude
👍
18:00 – Johan No.1
A very good plan Erik14, I’m sitting here working on contingencies for lack of anything else but this one wasn’t included 😀
The entire invasion of Belgorod could have been done with existing units, UA had or has about a dozen brigades in the area and RU had customs officers.
The fact that RU still today doesn’t bother to fortify the border is naturally because they have received assurances from the West but Ukraine has shown integrity before, right? And moving around up there as you describe would create chaos.
Chaos creates opportunities and I wouldn’t trust the West’s assurances here for a second if I were Putin.
But then it’s all a win-win for Ukraine, if Putin pulls units from the fronts to reinforce up north then they become weaker there instead…
It would become a huge pocket to say the least between Toretsk and Horlivka 😀
Some risk that Russian units retreat straight east before the enormous pincer closes.
10:48 – Johan No.1
Went to the hairdresser here during the intense mission in Portugal and he was Ukrainian. A slightly different story though – the family had lived there for 20 years and he himself had come and gone over three years. He brought up the war and besides being saddened by the enormous losses UA is taking (which we in the thread know about but do not discuss) he said he didn’t want to live in Ukraine and believed that many Ukrainians will move or have already established themselves in other countries. To me, this nicely shows the other side of the coin – UA is not immune to war fatigue at all and if this goes on too long we risk ending up there. Resignation and low morale always spread like wildfire. The army has made enormous sacrifices today and if they feel they are being double-crossed it can go quickly. Do you remember that Cossack in Bakhmut, whatever his name was – in a video he discussed Zelensky and the “j-ers” so there is definitely stuff bubbling under the surface even in Ukraine.
It would be strange otherwise, right – just look at how a domestic political discussion in the thread goes, the longest discussion every time…
The “Azov push” is also hugely important domestically for Ukraine. Right now everyone is pulling in the same direction and hundreds of thousands are ready to sacrifice themselves for the country but that can change very quickly and UA understands that better than anyone and that is also why they will keep the pressure up with their low-loss offensive. If the air goes out of this offensive, a lot is at stake so the air will not go out of this offensive.
Then there is another discussion making the rounds in the media and that is the big threat posed by Orban, Erdogan, Trump and now Slovakia’s pro-Putin party.
My opinion is that as long as the big countries don’t betray, it’s not a major problem; UK, Germany, France, Scandinavia, Benelux, Poland, Australia, Canada and all the others I’ve forgotten.
Every country is free to donate whatever they want, it doesn’t have to be under EU auspices, right?
Orban, Erdogan and Slovakia are annoying but in no way decisive.
What is happening in the USA, in my opinion, is the ripple effects of a slick influence operation signed by Russia playing out but it is not decisive either. One suspected that Qanon was the buildup phase and what radicalization it became…
What has had a big impact, however, is that the West managed to unite on sanctions to damage Russia economically and to persuade China not to openly support Russia.
We could absolutely be in a situation today where the West had not imposed sanctions and China matched everything the West sends for a status quo. Our thoughts go to the cleaners who had to clean up the German meeting rooms after the steel eagle put the screws on.
It’s the upside-down world as usual, those who take real damage in this war are Russia but we get through our media that now it’s a critical situation because a pro-Putin party got the highest number of votes in Slovakia. How they will manage to get two (2) other parties to form a government when they themselves had just over 22% is something no one reflects on – the message is that Western support is faltering (which it is not).
Russia is very good at influence operations and still 1.5 years later it is always questioned whether it really is Russian influence behind all this – if you have read a bit about Russian influence during the Cold War it is quite obvious that they have their tentacles almost everywhere and now they are also at war with the West according to their own statements so if anything even hotter than during the Cold War.
Someone has probably brought this up but after Girkin and Prigozin disappeared from the airwaves and not least after all the PR people and debaters were stripped away, the critical voices against the war have partly disappeared and we are led to believe that everything is going better for the Russians. Someone was attentive in the thread who brought this up a few weeks ago.
During 2022 we were quite agreed that Girkin often stuck to the truth but had an agenda and we evaluated the source accordingly.
Prigozin we have in hindsight been able to confirm also stuck reasonably close to the truth when Wagner’s losses became known and the coup attempt played out. The coup attempt up in the thick of the fighting as this year’s anticlimax, bad for the blood pressure.
Potemkin facade thus – everything is worse on the ground but they silence the truth-tellers and project strength and Western media report it uncritically. Previously, Prigozin’s and Girkin’s statements used to find their way into our media as a counterbalance since they were Russian voices.
Emaciated Azovstal prisoners, is anyone really surprised.
https://twitter.com/alexbondodua/status/1707516403857727559?s=46&t=DwJ72ppdm07ieJOX_QjA6w
The Ukraine war is a bit like letting seven violent sexual offender drug addicts into your house who run amok and then trying to talk them into behaving. That seems to be how the West thinks anyway.
It should be crystal clear to everyone that it is more violence than Russia can absorb that applies and that you have to break their backs – with less than that they will not pull back their claws.
Robots, advanced aircraft and more ammunition for indirect capabilities will deliver this because Ukraine has the world’s best infantry doing the heavy lifting.
Found the 88th motor rifle brigade, an LPR unit that has been in Starobilsk since February 2023. Unclear where they have been since February but it could be another indication that the northern Luhansk has been weakened. It’s starting to look a bit thin on the Russian side up there.
At Bakhmut it is now a critical situation for the Russians. They have lost the NS line at Klischiivka with dominant terrain like the railway embankment and the irrigation canal/watercourse.
The unit maps do not agree on who is defending around Odradivka but I think there is more and more about that community, that UA has been there sniffing around.
We know that the 72nd is wiped out and we have previously received information that the 83GAAD, 57th and 4th are heavily decimated and the 80th tank regiment had many vehicles knocked out in Klischiivka.
Right now Ukraine is pushing hard south of the settlement in Bakhmut and RU cannot hold back.
https://twitter.com/andysch64494719/status/1708918992323084555?s=46&t=nEeTungh_fnxXjBS-oo2Vg
RU’s next defensive line is the NS line between Opytne – lower Zaitseve and the road between them. At first glance it looks like fields between the two defensive lines but there is a lot of forest, forest belts and ravines for UA to advance through.
Right now RU is trying to defend between these two lines and UA tanks are engaging in sniping while trying to man the next line with those now retreating.
The 346th Spetznaz brigade is possibly the Spetznaz brigade recently pulled from northern Luhansk and together with four (4) VDV regiments that makes a total of 5 of RU’s elite units trying to defend south of the settlement in Bakhmut and they cannot hold back.
Today’s Accent Man sounds a lot like Normandy now, UA is advancing with reconnaissance and identifying RU defenses or build-ups which are then cut off with indirect capabilities.
RU completely played out in the stands south of Bakhmut.
https://youtu.be/OQbK357Bjdk?si=QBZ_hesAU1wplrfd
Kurdymuivka and Ozarianivka are probably also being probed by UA if one may guess, and if they take them, they have probably gotten “behind” earlier minefields meant to protect Horlivka?
If a threat is projected against that city, which if not a twelve-gauge is a place worth protecting, RU will be forced to send down a couple of brigades to protect it as well, wherever they are taken from.
By the way, the railway embankment is an enormously advantageous position for UA. Western tanks can lower their barrels enough so they can stand behind the railway embankment and shoot accurately at all targets they can see over 4 km away. It’s somewhat coincidental with the NS line Opytne – lower Zaitseve so they can stand there with their thermal sights and shoot anything that moves – an absolute biggie that makes the next line untenable!
Looks very interesting around Bakhmut then, positive-positive.