10:11 – Johan No.1
Now that we have seen what a few mines and defense can achieve, I would like to refer back to the first weeks of the war and when a Russian begging camp rolled over the Antonovsky Bridge and Khakovka around lunchtime on the first day of the war.
I think we all, with the knowledge we have today, understand how enormously wrong it went for UA in defense down there.
If they had blown up the bridges and mined with a few thousand mines, it would have stopped.
The rumor was that Zelensky did not order general mobilization to avoid provoking the Russians and that he believed in the West’s guarantees, mainly from Scholtz and Macron.
The other rumor was that broadly speaking, the FSB did not pay out the bribe money but stole it, but on the southern front, they bribed the right people. A couple of big shots from different branches of the military have been fired, including the GUR chief down there.
In hindsight, one is led to believe there is some truth to these rumors – the Russians basically just drove straight over the bridges to the mainland and then pushed forward all the way to the Dnieper.
A mechanized battalion that had prepared for a week could have stopped it.
Then came this war’s big mistake for Putin – instead of moving up along the left bank of the Dnieper and taking the crossings up to Dnipro, they went straight for Mariupol.
There were reports of columns with 200 tanks and marine infantry landing in Berdyansk.
If they had combined that attack wedge with bypassing Kharkiv and going straight for Kremenchug, this war would have ended before it even started.
My best guess before the war started was that Putin only grabbed all the terrain east of the Dnieper River.
In hindsight, we also understand that Mariupol and Bakhmut were delaying battles necessary for later.
If Mariupol had fallen early, RU would have sped straight north and this war would have looked different.
Bakhmut is this war’s big flytrap that has provided opportunities on other fronts.
Since Ukraine did not carry out a humiliating surprise attack after broad promises of peace, they got a poker hand to deal with.
Despite the Russians having a 16:1 artillery advantage and devastating superiority in mechanized and air forces, Ukraine achieved success after success – Kiev, Kharkiv, Kherson, Izyum, Lyman and more.
We have just witnessed the new Red Army and how they behave in Avdiivka. Everyone warns that the Russians are learning, but 1.5 years later they do exactly the same – going and dying in the potato fields.
If Ukraine could achieve all the above after almost being strangled out, don’t you think they can manage it after their mobilization and all the Western-supplied materiel – I believe they can 😀
10:19 – Johan No.1
A small study in an influence operation to take in, try to read this without blinkers –
So far, I..el has not invaded G..a, right?
H..as has pushed its ethnic cleansing rhetoric hard and all the world’s media have jumped on it, but the invasion never came, so it started to sound hollow and the red lines were never crossed as stated by Iran and H..ah, the escalation did not happen because I..el has not gone all-in yet.
Never miss an opportunity…
H..as fired a salvo of rockets at I..el and they flew over a hospital where one rocket landed in the parking lot.
H..as immediately claimed that the hospital was bombed by I..el and that 500 died.
We know from Ukraine that 500 in one strike would be an insane (lucky) hit, right?
500 dead would imply what, 1500 injured?
Western media jumped on it immediately and reinforced the message which then became verified information because it came from established media and all propaganda channels joined in to influence.
If you link to BBC or CNN, everyone takes it as truth.
Now violent demonstrations have broken out in several MENA countries where embassies or other buildings have been stormed and half of MENA has strongly condemned this horrific war crime within a day from when the rocket fell in the parking lot and a few cars were destroyed.
The spokesman is H..as, who are notorious liars as everyone knows, but Western media overlooked this in their eagerness to spread the news and referred to “pal….ka authorities,” which sounds formal and credible.
What I..el says is at best dutifully reported, but the verdict is already passed.
The evidence is overwhelming, TV filmed the rocket attack and the one that fell, so not much to discuss, but for I..el it does not matter, they are already condemned and it became the escalation that has been sought since H..as murdered thousands of civilians in I..el – the purpose is now achieved, right?
– the rocket landed in a parking lot
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1714410341063434343?s=46&t=AcIwldEOSEnix1UR43nQNw
– huge protests against this atrocity but directed at the wrong party
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1714371648252490199?s=46&t=AcIwldEOSEnix1UR43nQNw
– evidence that it was H..as
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1714393424130941268?s=46&t=AcIwldEOSEnix1UR43nQNw
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1714415067431674316?s=46&t=AcIwldEOSEnix1UR43nQNw
– Evidence of no damage.
https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1714524240089669958?s=46&t=AcIwldEOSEnix1UR43nQNw
– Even more evidence that the hospital is intact.
https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1714509053588582774?s=46&t=AcIwldEOSEnix1UR43nQNw
It is as if the world expects this and takes the first opportunity and explodes.
If we now thought that our media in the West had gone wrong in the Ukraine war, it was elementary school level because they have just managed to be highly involved in a very successful influence operation to escalate the war in MENA despite I..el showing willingness (read forced by the USA!) to de-escalate by not invading G..a so far.
I had started to hope that the temperature could be lowered, but never miss an opportunity as they say.
I am content with DN but the whole world has this as front-page news and the UN has issued strong condemnations.
Reality seems to have crept into Expressen right now at least, which is positive.
https://www.dn.se/
If I am wrong in my analysis above, it should become clear within two days, but I felt that when I..el could show drone images of an undamaged hospital, then it was safe enough to take a clear stand.
We’ll see how long our media in the West continue down the wrong track and how big the backtrack will be.
I’ll stop here, but this is quite a big misstep by Western media, the UN, and everyone who is supposed to be impartial here 🤬
That the other I..el hostile countries come out and condemn is part of the game – simply smart.
And then one must congratulate a superb influence operation, someone must be damn tired of champagne by now.
The infrastructure to get the message out has been there before, well established.
The message is already ready and they are waiting for the right moment – hundreds of civilians murdered, preferably children, hospitals, schools, kindergartens or similar.
Images are already prepared – crying women and children, injured women and children, dead women and children
Wait for something suitable to be blown up, and since I..el hasn’t blown anything up, this hospital had to do.
Then pour more gasoline on the fire, let the crowds do the rest and wait for escalation.
12:15 – MatsExtrude
Thanks, we are slowly approaching a decision! 👍
12:31 – MatsExtrude
👍Of course they will fix this, it’s just a question of how long it takes.
Every day the war continues is one day too many, but it is not Ukraine’s fault but the West’s, who worry about red lines that are just to be crossed as quickly as possible.
12:40 – MatsExtrude
Thanks, I fully agree! Hopefully at least the usual established media can learn something and become a bit more careful with source criticism and/or be very clear that the information is uncertain.
One link didn’t work for me. I guess this is the video that was supposed to be linked to:
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1714535687070916987
13:55 – Johan No.1
Exactly, Putin’s red lines have proven to be quite harmless to run over 👍
ATACMS was supposed to be met with a wiped-out London or something?
14:13 – Johan No.1
Yes, that one, I think it’s about time now to understand how the world has changed and relate to the new reality.
14:38 – Johan No.1
Being read over coffee is probably the highest praise 😀
The area around Antonovsky is in the sky so it is very suitable to expand with infantry and some armored vehicles.
Up by Khakovka, for example, there is a settlement and then open fields to cross.
The idea has been that they continuously expand the bridgehead in this area until it is large enough to bring over artillery, mechanized forces for further offensive.
The shortest way would be to go towards the water south of Melitopol.
They have pontoon bridges, they have ferries, and now they also have two bridges.
14:45 – Johan No.1
😀 (with all goodwill below)
I distinguish between China – THEN – not actively daring to side with Russia and I stand by that.
Even today they feel they have to sneak the aid behind North Korea etc.
However – I am quite sure that the relationship between them is much better today than last winter, you can see it in the body language.
So we are slowly moving towards an ever better relationship between China – Russia so you will be right in about half a year 😀
14:46 – Johan No.1
We do, that they want to get rid of air and army aviation from the southern front speaks volumes.
16:07 – Johan No.1
IngenAhning – you wrote about the telecom cable further up and I replied below.
Hello there, do you mean that the same ship has been at all three sabotages?
https://twitter.com/erikkannike/status/1711490846351073769?s=46&t=44bWt8Ie8v_8fjUx9A2ChA
This is impossible to ignore.
Is it confirmed that it was the same one low by the telecom cable as well?
17:44 – Johan No.1
BREAKING Putin might be arrested!
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1714593107960832505?s=46&t=44bWt8Ie8v_8fjUx9A2ChA
(he just called the special operation a war which is punishable by 10 years in prison or something)
17:49 – MatsExtrude
Right, both talk about London Paris and Berlin, and also that one that was supposed to detonate in the sea and create a tidal wave that would drown all of Great Britain..
10:09 – Johan No.1
It took a while to see the commitment to the fallen’s family yesterday and as someone wrote – we hope the phone didn’t keep ringing. Terrible to stand there with two young children and the whole existence ripped away.
I always get extra moved when you see children who start crying when their fathers, or mothers, come home from the war – it’s an enormous stress they carry that comes out and then all those whose parent never returns. When I’ve been away and come home, our youngest usually comes running, cries for a minute, and then everything is fine.
Nothing is fair and the families have to carry the grief forward and in Ukraine, there are too many of them.
Last winter we guessed that the residents of Mariupol would freeze or starve to death as there was a shortage of both. Now there have probably been cholera outbreaks as well.
Allowing us to go into a second war winter with these enormous losses is indefensible but the world is not fair. Ukraine will have to win on its own and then rebuild its country and population with too little support from the West.
How do you even value destroyed cities like Mariupol?
Over the Dnipro or not is probably the big question, Erik14 posted this news in the middle of the darkest night shift.
https://twitter.com/andysch64494719/status/1714477563051974736?s=46&t=AcIwldEOSEnix1UR43nQNw
We have been discussing for a while that RU sources considered that the marine brigades have been pulled from Staromaiorske and that they have been terrified of crossing the Dnipro for some time now.
That it has been quiet at Staromaiorske despite a forest of brigades with hard bites we have also noted and discussed – either the brigades have been moved or they are building up for a huge hit, we wrote.
Now again RU sources report that the Dnipro has been crossed north of Antonovsky at the railway bridge.
It is supposed to be two marine brigades and the reconnaissance battalion and they have achieved success immediately – the numbers are unknown and nowhere does it say that it is the entire brigades, AND these are Russian sources!!
My first thought is that you don’t risk these high-value units in some high-risk raid and that the ambition level is high but we’ll see.
https://twitter.com/danspiun/status/1714422744442441931?s=46&t=AcIwldEOSEnix1UR43nQNw
David D reasons that it is the 70th division defending at Antonovsky and north of that a sparse picket line with home guard.
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1714448985467846824?s=46&t=AcIwldEOSEnix1UR43nQNw
My second observation is that this is right in the 70th MRD main area and that if there are future landings further north, it is much more sparsely defended.
If they have managed to capture the two communities 4km in from the railway bridge, it is very interesting because it suggests that RU is weak in the main area.
What should RU do now, pull units from the southern front and weaken it further.
If they cross with units from two brigades and a reconnaissance battalion, it is not a raid but an attempt to establish a bridgehead, presumably?
A bit south is the bridgehead at the Antonovsky bridge which they have held for months because RU withdrew across the waterway so they got a natural terrain obstacle to their advantage.
It doesn’t feel entirely unlikely that they are trying to widen the bridgehead south and as we discussed earlier, the terrain in this area is very suitable.
Opening a threat right in the back of the southern front is smart warfare.
Looks good 😀
Regarding UA capability, they have now received what they need to knock out aircraft and helicopters at the front-line bases and have deployed some wilder air defense.
I might think that 12 ATACMS was a bit ridiculous but it allowed UA to strike the airbases and at least five have been fired now.
https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1714350961525686508?s=46&t=AcIwldEOSEnix1UR43nQNw
RU artillery neutralized – check.
Acute ammunition shortage – check.
Deny aircraft and helicopters – check.
We are getting closer to part two of the spring offensive where UA can start to use their heavy elephants.
Remember Kherson where HIMARS came and laid the foundation for the entire collapse, we are almost there again now in mid-late summer 😀
When we discuss UA reserves, UA still has its tank brigades left except for the detached battalions presumably?
My feeling is that they are holding back a serious blow and now the stage is almost set.
On the ground, the VDV at the southern front are weak and hungry and the thousands of units now taking over are infantry without heavy vehicles and certainly low on everything.
1917 meets 2023 and feel the might of combined arms warfare.
Unlimited ammunition for the artillery is supposed to be available to UA at the southern front so it might get quite lively there going forward.
RU has also damn well decided that there will be an offensive over in Donetsk and apparently will continue with it, good for UA.
https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1714325127096144284?s=46&t=cetkbt0IDDAMZtJCUu-n9g
Kasparov went out with the message that there will be no regime change before Crimea is retaken. Ukraine has been very clear that Crimea is the goal so you start to wonder if GUR is in contact with the opposition and that they have agreed that Crimea is needed as the triggering factor 😀
It is hard to ignore that from the Russian side they feel that they have held the defensive lines all summer, that they might get a little respite and that then there are fresh new army corps to send to Ukraine to win the war.
These absolutely disastrous offensives are super fun but they change nothing in essence especially since it is RU who are attacking.
We’ll see if we get further aircraft losses but two things have happened in recent days – knocked out airbases and shot down aircraft at the fronts. Rumors went about a certain system starting with P.
UA might be able to start fighting in larger formations which can give bigger movements and thus opportunities.
The “Azov thrust” which is to reach Azov, cause a general flight from the southern front and plug the land bridge to Crimea remains a possible war-deciding factor and should be work in progress.
In the long run, Crimea is lost…
My amateur analysis of Putin meeting Xi Jinping was that both looked satisfied, Putin has a tendency to look self-satisfied which directly triggers the reflex to give him a kick.
Since they never sent a clone, we can assume that Putin is in good spirits, not terminally ill and that the relationship between these two is good.
If Xi Jinping had not supported H..as attack, it would have looked different at the meeting.
So my conclusion is the following – both think things are going better than the last time they met in Russia
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1714245408115843231?s=46&t=cetkbt0IDDAMZtJCUu-n9g
If we continue the reasoning, things are not going better in Russia so then they are presumably satisfied with the escalation they have achieved maybe?
Putin was first into the dinner which should make him the guest of honor?
https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1714310328022949999?s=46&t=cetkbt0IDDAMZtJCUu-n9g
I have been browsing pro-Russian forums as one should and noted to my surprise that some are very negative towards the Kremlin and the whole war, a significant shift from the usual mockery and lies.
If you saw today, it is no longer a red angry emoji because the West has given UA what they needed to start striking the airbases. If RU loses its air force and army aviation, things might start moving.
The only thing I am a bit worried about is why more bases are not being hit, because aircraft can unfortunately be redeployed quite quickly.
Yesterday we had India’s statement that Russia is on the decline and today there are large protests in the West…against their own government – very positive.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1714380437299109906?s=46&t=AcIwldEOSEnix1UR43nQNw
And then a final piece of strategic communication, a bit like the cherry on top of the cake. The West has delivered its part.
https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1714459523887284260?s=46&t=AcIwldEOSEnix1UR43nQNw
Looks insanely good if you scout around in the undergrowth 👍