12:44 – Johan No.1
Yep, the thread discussed that a lot if I remember correctly 😀
Up in northern Luhansk, the soils are supposed to be sandier, and inside the forests there are roots and other things holding it together.
In the south, UA carried out the Kherson offensive quite late, and if you advance on the HILLS it’s dry, but in the VALLEYS it’s marshy.
Robotyne lies just a bit west of the high terrain, so it’s not unreasonable that it will be passable down there going forward 👍
14:14 – MatsExtrude
+++++ Thanks again for the interesting read!
15:11 – Johan No.1
Thanks.
15:22 – Johan No.1
😀
I long argued that UA denied RU air supremacy with air defense and then created their own air supremacy with indirect guided capabilities.
That’s not wrong, but of course it would help UA to get a large amount of frontline aircraft with suitable support.
ATACMS, Taurus, and Storm Shadow were probably bigger game changers, and if UA just gets rid of the frontline aircraft now – 5 SU25 shot down in a week, then the stage is set.
I think.
08:54 – Johan No.1
According to below, soldiers, MBTs, and IFVs are at record highs, is that correct?
https://twitter.com/hullu_rakkaus/status/1715245727415140712?s=46&t=0khXAR5__UGVduwrGWaHdQ
11:14 – Johan No.1
Yesterday we discussed the crossing of the Dnieper.
FAB500, FAB1500 and ahkp have long been written about as a dampening force for the spring offensive.
It is crystal clear that UA forward-based qualified LV for SU25 are dropping like flies right now and the battle against the helicopter fleet is probably bigger than we are led to believe, a total of between 17-25 according to David D.
I am of the opinion that we have not yet discussed the second base in detail and then what happened in Kursk, about which we have zero information, so he might possibly be right.
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1714851262817063317?s=46&t=xihPm2Pef0oMl84U43aJgg
Then we have also discussed that RU has moved most of the fleet from Crimea and those remaining are largely hiding in Sevastopol.
At least to me, it looks like Ukraine is now taking the final steps to be able to carry out its offensive against Azov.
For months they have been clearing minefields and have now basically destroyed the last offensive reserve, it is practically finished and very depressed.
Grankovitch posted that the VDV on the southern front had less than 60% of personnel left and that was a conservative figure. That was presumably the personnel they started with when they were transferred to the southern front.
Other VDV units are taking a beating up at Bakhmut and the 83rd has been sulking for a long time.
The marine infantry is only so in name and apart from the two spetsnaz regiments held in reserve up at the northern front, they are probably in poor shape and reconnaissance has also been relegated to trench Russians and is dying in large numbers.
They have effectively eliminated the artillery and ensured ammunition shortages across the entire battlefield.
At the same time, they have resourced their own offensive with “unlimited” ammunition.
They have fought with small groups that have used indirect capabilities as much as possible to save lives and inflict maximum damage on the barbarians.
The Russian counterattacks aimed at buying time for lives, UA has taken losses but they have been proportionally much less than RU – a 1:5 ratio has been reported during the spring offensive and now after Avdiivka it probably isn’t any worse than that?
If my coffee grounds haven’t blown me away and are rolling on their back laughing, Ukraine is now at the point where they can start engaging the heavy elephants on the southern front and achieve success, a window for higher intensity should begin.
It won’t go fast but they will increase the intensity and push on until they reach Azov at one of the attack vectors that you all know if you have closely read that guy in the thread’s big campaign plan.
That RU is attacking in the Donetsk area is excellent and can be fought off.
The pressure on Bakhmut will be maintained by UA, quietly they are now crushing the units trying to defend Opytne – the lower Zaitseve line since they have the dominant terrain on their side and have tanks as snipers.
In northern Luhansk there are early indications that the RU offensive is over and that UA at least can manage local offensives to improve their positions. Over time this will turn into offensive operations in an operation revolving door. We have been writing about this for a while now as there have been many signs.
https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1714750892656709801?s=46&t=xihPm2Pef0oMl84U43aJgg
Unleash the freedom-thirsty Russians in Belgorod and Kursk, take the terrain down to Azov, keep the pressure up at Bakhmut and start the offensive in northern Luhansk.
Strike relentlessly against airbases and those damn twelve military bases on the Russian side of the border.
Then we’ll see…
And sure, they have already started with the military bases 😀
https://twitter.com/maria_drutska/status/1714569342266769420?s=46&t=44bWt8Ie8v_8fjUx9A2ChA
If the West just supplies the right ammunition at the right time, this could go faster than what the experts have now calibrated their models for, just because it has been snail-paced all summer. Then they get quiet for a while to catch up and then there will be new flashy analyses.
They are knocking out ammunition in Tokmak right now, you know that bulls-eye circle the Russians built and put all their depots within so they would be easier to strike for Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1714523963685024084?s=46&t=44bWt8Ie8v_8fjUx9A2ChA
We are definitely heading towards a chess move here during late summer, we hope it won’t be too difficult terrain if it rains.
A bit slow that Abrams arrived just now when the ground bearing capacity is questionable but I guess they can find some task for them.
The spring offensive has been very successful and now we’ll see what Ukraine can achieve during the autumn, a lot is my guess.
Whether it will be a chess move is the big question, Russia is quite unpredictable but right now the West has carried out the amplifiers he with his bright red emoji faces has been calling for all summer and Ukraine will carry out its offensive as promised after they read the big campaign plan.
If that’s not enough because Putin simply has Russia in too tight a grip or because they have managed to escalate the situation in MENA enough so the Ukraine war is secondary, then Ukraine will just continue to root out the trench Russians and kick them out by force until the whole weed country is cleared.
But when the land bridge to Crimea is cut, then the war is irretrievably lost for Putin. It already is but then it will be written on the wall in the Kremlin for everyone to read.
And yes – as Erik14 suggested, Dengamle went with Budanov to the USA, it was burgers and milkshakes at Jack in the Box breakfast, lunch and dinner the whole stay. Budanov was completely distraught.
A big plus was that Dengamle took the criticism to heart and let Budanov choose the tie which was a success because Biden wasn’t rolling on the floor laughing this time and Budanov got ATACMS and those specialists to assist with the knowledge on site in Ukraine when they were to be fired.
Then there was a discussion with Majsa13 and Ingenahning yesterday and the conclusion was that the below ship has been at NS1 and NS2, Baltic connector and the telecom cable between SE and Estonia before the sabotages.
(with the risk that I have misinterpreted and remember that I always extrapolate too far 😀).
For me, that is almost the burden of proof you need to point firmly at Russia.
The ship is suited for bottom work…
There has to be some limit to how cautiously one tiptoes around Putin here, this is terrorism against critical infrastructure.
https://twitter.com/erikkannike/status/1711490846351073769?s=46&t=44bWt8Ie8v_8fjUx9A2ChA
And the absolutely most important thing that we have probably learned after 1.5 years of war of aggression and genocide – if you don’t say stop, Putin takes it as encouragement to speed up.
As soon as Ukraine sank some ships in the Black Sea, the blockade of sea traffic fell through and the fleet fled.
That this ship has been able to carry out three sabotages, and the West has been very aware of this, is almost I don’t know what actually, anyone have an idea?
If civilian OSINT analysts can figure it out, then the military intelligence must have known all along, but they let the ship carry out sabotage after sabotage as it cruises around the Baltic Sea.
What are our navies actually for?
Also, I’m quite annoyed that this information about the ship came out right at the beginning, but then the media chose to completely ignore it and instead followed misleading leads like the sailboat Andromeda.
Times are out of joint 🤬
Also, as a homeowner, I don’t want a runaway electricity bill just because Putin sees he can get away with murder and targets our vulnerable electricity infrastructure this winter, I don’t want that 😭
Putin might get the gas weapon from MENA going now, but he needs to top it up with sabotage against EU electricity infrastructure this winter.
From his perspective, the West has done nothing when he carried out three sabotages in broad daylight with many witnesses.
Do you think Putin is worried that loose wrenches dropped into nuclear reactors will provoke any violent response from the West – not at all, because there was no reaction to the first three terrorist attacks.
That Russia has been low on tanks, “snorkort” as someone usually writes, we have known for a long time.
Then in the Avdiivka offensive, we saw MTLB as troop transports, T62 in offensive operations, BTR50 and cluster munitions with infantry shooting at everything that moved.
Here is another observation about tanks as troop transports.
All in all, they are scraping the bottom of the stockpiles right now, presumably?
We were told early in the war by those who knew that they would first attack with second-rate equipment and then when Ukraine was down on its knees, the T90, BTR90, and BMP-3 would come rushing in. Wrong as usual 😀
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1714878486077170115?s=46&t=xihPm2Pef0oMl84U43aJgg
A small indication that the megaphones were just waiting for the right moment to spread “500 dead women and children,” Turkey flew its flag at half-mast across the country the morning after the atrocity.
https://twitter.com/golub/status/1714879276292464733?s=46&t=xihPm2Pef0oMl84U43aJgg
Positive – Positive indeed, and I assume there will be increased intensity going forward provided the weather doesn’t stop it, but since Putin has everyone against him and probably the worst luck of anyone alive now, it will be a dry and sunny autumn and the barbarians will be run over 😀