12:31 – Johan No.1
Out bobbing again in the shark-rich waters but it’s better than two days of topographic survey, welcome grilled Swedish lobster.
Then it’s quite fun to see how nothing ever goes Russia’s way – if Sweden is now in NATO, the Baltic Sea is NATO territory forever.
The Baltic fleet is not exactly a bathtub but if you pool the countries in the Baltic Sea area and top it with an Arleigh Burke destroyer or two, it’s game over before it even starts.
No more landings, that’s now overplayed and Sweden doesn’t need an invasion defense like during the Cold War so we can be an offensive reserve for the Baltics and Finland.
Finland would never be penetrated anyway, and in the future Sweden will have trained so much with Finland that we forward base what they might want from us in a twilight scenario and it’s ready for war.
For the Baltics, maybe two Swedish armored brigades would fit nicely.
The EU eastern border is secured with this and now the Russians try to pretend nothing happened but this stings enormously in their grandiose self-image. They struggled all through the Cold War to keep Sweden and Finland neutral and now idiot Putin has gone and given everything to NATO, hair has been torn out.
Having poked the wasps’ nest I..el was probably the biggest mistake of the year because they have previously shown extreme grudges and a high capacity without restraints when their red lines have been crossed, and one can probably assume that 1200 tortured and murdered civilians was a thick red line. There is a good chance that I..el and Ukraine cooperate or share experiences in the future administration of justice.
This geostrategic game that I imaginatively paint in free fantasies, no one knows how it will end, and just like in an MMA fight, both are convinced that they will win.
The Ukraine war has commendably shown how whack-a-mole works, two sluggers constantly trying to knock down the other team’s capabilities and then push up new own capabilities that make a difference on the battlefield.
Expand that to the world and it is the same way, both the West and the “axis of evil” (for those of us who remember) believe they have some aces up their sleeves that will make a difference.
Sitting and talking with a Chinese person on Twitter and he is convinced that China can win a war against the USA. Unclear if he is representative of how China views its own capability but he is a hardcore believer.
Now it is a bit difficult to speculate about China but if one may guess, they have made a somewhat similar journey as Russia with their military, they have shining parade units and staged exercises but at depth it is not as fine and then they are a “follow orders and take no own initiatives” country to the fingertips.
Taking the navy as an example, China has 500 ships and the USA 470. Adding all of the West, they are already counted out before it has started.
The army is irrelevant because it is India and Russia they can reach by land route, China’s fate is decided in the South China Sea (that’s what it’s called, right?) and their fleet is not big enough. Analysis complete 😀
The conclusion can only be that China can cause a hell of a lot of damage but the outcome can only be a loss.
So IF China has imperial ambitions, it is therefore also in their interest to spread the conflict and draw more countries to their side because alone and together with a half-beaten Russia they are too weak.
The word is still IF, they have not shown their cards yet.
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At the same time as RU artillery gets dumb ground-burst ammunition, Ukraine has increased its capability in guided, cluster, and area rocket ammunition. Added to that is that UA has an absolute advantage in counter-battery fire.
I can see nothing else but that the back is broken on the Russian artillery.
They try to compensate with suicide drones but even in the drone weapon Ukraine is ahead.
Previously, air and AHKP had to compensate and now AHKP has probably been heavily decimated since last summer.
What remains is thus elite air force and FAB500, FAB1500.
Low odds that UA is preparing LV and more drone attacks against air bases to decimate those as well.
Then there is nothing more to pull out of Putin’s too big and dented hat, there are no new moles to whack down.
12:36 – Johan No.1
What is the logic behind a Chinese merchant ship tearing apart the Baltic Connector with an anchor?
Of 195 countries, it is China that is responsible for cable breaks in Russia’s sphere of interest.
Maybe Russia has come to the realization that if they blew up more cables, the West would act and they concluded that the West still does not dare to act against China, it is too early in the match for them.
The probability that it was an accident is zero but because it was a Chinese ship and anchor, it can be delayed long enough.
Apparently China does this with all cables to Taiwan which signals that they are not as peaceful as they appear – according to Twitter gods.
Turkey has just approached H..as and P..a and not the West – a step in the wrong direction.
Note the shift – now RU sources are peddling the NYT article that I..el proof that the rocket came from H..as does not hold. The hospital still stands, it was not knocked out but the West continues to dig into information about this. Whether it was falling H..as or I..el rocket is irrelevant, the hospital was never hit 😐
South of Bakhmut, RU milbloggers believe that UA is advancing more than reported. From the maps, it is quite clear that Ozarianivka and Kurdymuivka will fall soon, fire from three directions.
UA has also advanced towards Odradivka which is spectacular and quite sure that the dominant terrain from the railway embankment plays a role here – sniping.
It looks to me like the line Opytne – lower Zaitseve will fall quite soon and then the retreat to Popasna – Svitlodarsk line applies (the prepared one that goes up to Lysychansk).
RU brigades in that area are well known and many have been heavily decimated during the summer and autumn.
Now the 1st Tank brigade has joined Avdiivka and then Russian successes there will end quite soon.
The brigade is according to David D “stronger than a RU division today on the ground in Ukraine”, right or wrong but he backs it up with nice graphics 😀
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1717192623440498912?s=20
For the archive from WP that Ukraine carries out legal executions in Russia.
https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1716481270648045692?s=46&t=KOe8ZUBbcgLUW9l6BW9iTw
Stuff like this drives me crazy, give UA a few hundred rockets and let them knock out everything on the ground for a week or so. The air bases just lie there full of unprotected aircraft.
https://twitter.com/jayinkyiv/status/1716485074013520251?s=46&t=KOe8ZUBbcgLUW9l6BW9iTw
For archive number 2, Russian women are recruited as drone operators or snipers.
https://twitter.com/andysch64494719/status/1716696630055842246?s=46&t=Ae7dUnEdhmxWUnxNItRiBA
According to Estonia, as said quite a lot recently, seems well informed, NK has sent 350,000 artillery shells. That is very little.
https://twitter.com/glandsbergis/status/1717459095928578291?s=46&t=GTMGEAqJgN4tCSEeOm2aNQ
I’m beginning to think that Ukraine has lost more than Russia in total losses. In combat, Ukraine probably has about 50,000 killed and 250,000 wounded (including those who lost legs or arms and have re-entered service in non-combat roles) or similar, maybe against Russia’s million.
But the number of civilians murdered, starved to death, and frozen to death must be astronomical and 100,000 of the Russian losses are probably Ukrainians from the east?
Then no one knows how hard RU has advanced in the darkest Donbass, that will require a war’s end to find out.
It is a national trauma and we don’t talk about it but when this war is over and UA releases numbers on the dead, we will be speechless.
The figure of 700,000 children is something the Russians themselves have boasted about having taken from Ukraine, for example, even though voices in the West try to claim that it is unreasonable.
13:34 – Johan No.1
GeneralSVR does not give up and I find this interesting – not because I believe the account is a credible source but because an obvious psyops that I thought was Kremlin-controlled has now taken the narrative that Putin is dead and is pushing it hard.
GeneralSVR is not a person, it is an organization and there have been many points of contact with Qanon in how it has been set up, an insider in the corridors of power and something is happening all the time so you never get tired of it.
That Kremlin then goes out and denies that Putin has died makes it even more interesting, obviously Kremlin feels it is important to deny and they did the same with the heart attack. It would be more Russian to just ignore that fly on the wall but they don’t.
If we disregard the message, I am sitting and wondering if it is the opposition and if it is the opposition then they have probably just stirred the pot a little with these messages?
Pretty sure it is not nothing anyway.
13:34 – Johan No.1
The last sentence – I mean not that Putin has died but the account and who is behind it 😀
13:48 – Johan No.1
Messy from me but it is GeneralSVR that is interesting not the message.
18:07 – MatsExtrude
Well, in a way it would be wildly funny if everyone contributed to spreading the rumor, preferably serious media even if they write that it is unconfirmed. Then when the Russians deny it you spread it another round and when Putin shows up it is of course just a double..
18:18 – MatsExtrude
You preferably don’t want to think about what has happened to the population and of course mainly the children in the occupied areas. I remember when they took Mariupol and they talked about 80k killed/missing..
All occupied areas have several million inhabitants and I am afraid that they have not proceeded carefully when it comes to forced recruitments..
18:23 – Johan No.1
Moving image of (a) Putin from yesterday. Does anyone know the Japanese and can ask if it is the original or a body double.
https://twitter.com/julianroepcke/status/1717935105388257515?s=46&t=_4xmA9XVIvZ8WdbSQa1lIg
18:34 – MatsExtrude
Of course it is a fake Putin. He looks way too happy!
11:59 – Johan No.1
The lions.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1717807147373969412?s=46&t=_4xmA9XVIvZ8WdbSQa1lIg
Here we have some figures for UA from Kiev Independent, my guess of 50k killed and 250k wounded was not correct.
https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1717916676933513335?s=46&t=_4xmA9XVIvZ8WdbSQa1lIg
At the start of the war the defense forces were 261,000, I interpret that as total defense which now is over a million with 500,000 in the army?
The USA counts on 70,000 killed and 100,000-120,000 wounded, that was probably where I went a bit off with the total number of wounded 😀
UA has stated that 80% of the wounded return to the units.
These types of articles have also started to appear now that take a reality check and paint it as it is. The message to the West is probably – read this article and think for a while about how long we can afford to be stingy with materiel to Ukraine. We usually write in the thread that nothing is constant in Ukraine and the army consists of three branches and that it is a very corrupt country. Suddenly it also happens in Ukraine and then the West stands there with the whole mess in their lap and has to take the consequences. There is no shortage of voices pointing out that the great decisive moment of our time is happening in Ukraine right now.
I need some help with this but did the attack at Avdiivka come before or after the marine brigades started wreaking havoc at the Dnepr?
I am pretty sure we knew that the marine brigades had been pushed back to the Dnepr before Avdiivka started so UA’s intention was known.
It is then very strange that RU chooses to burn their reserves at Avdiivka instead of hitting the bridgeheads at the Dnepr or reinforcing the front line at the southern front.
Wild speculation – since RU seems to have rejected a long war and frozen fronts for a wild offensive, does that mean they do not consider themselves able to conduct this war over time?
One begins to wonder and Estonia’s whatever it was thought they could continue for a year low intensity, high intensity as now was not speculated on.
We know that RU has done many illogical things just because it is a new boss who wants to keep the job or that they compete with Wagner but now Gerasinov is in Rostov na Don and knows what it looks like over at the Dnepr. Nevertheless, he burns the whole reserve at Avdiivka.
The Russians are not logical but this is quite unusual even for them because previous offensives have not come at the same time as they are supposed to try to play defensively. The winter offensive came instead of a UA offensive for example and they got to go and die quietly in the potato fields until May 4, 2023 when the spring offensive started.
Now there is loss of strv ATH which we have already written about but there is more – IFV third highest, soldiers possibly fourth highest. Artillery, air defense, special forces and trucks have gone down which signals front line attrition. This fits well with both RU attacks at Avdiivka and northern Luhansk and UA offensive operations over the Dnepr and at the southern front.
It is becoming clear what UA’s combat goals are at the southern front and they are pressing on quietly, we only hear from Russian sources because the opsec cover is heavy.
They have previously abandoned 50% of conquered territory for less than this.
The next question will probably be if RU has strategic reserves enough to be able to waste units as they have done now at Avdiivka and up in northern Luhansk?
I am of the opinion that they do not have these strategic reserves, 25CAA which has begun to be resourced was reportedly only 12,000, no information about vehicles.
We have heard about these CAA, AC and new divisions that are to be set up but the first that appeared was substandard at best.
Surely the Russians will also be able to form a new assault army, train and resource it as long as they get enough time, anyone can.
But the question is if they today have strategic reserves and I don’t think they have it in the amount needed to prevent Crimea from falling.
I wrote rather unclearly yesterday but what I was interested in was the account GeneralSVR itself that has worked hard for a long time to get followers and now has burned itself. There was immediately moving footage of Putin at some meeting so why did they take that line?
Anyway, I got a bit worried about the condition of my caviar-eating friend in a bunker out in Altai.
After all, he only has caviar, a stripper pole, a few bottles of oil and a way too big double bed in a way too big bedroom to entertain himself with. All behind triple barriers of security services that he does not trust the least but mostly goes great detours around and glares suspiciously at.
The food is tasted by three people before he starts eating and then he feels that others have been poking in the food and is no longer hungry. His doctor has long had to force him to eat digestive biscuits so that he doesn’t fall asleep hungry.
Imagine my surprise when I understood that he is GeneralSVR, the name is a bit of idol worship from his KGB days, he always wanted to be in SVR.
Now I have to admit that his messages were more than cryptic, it is likely that he has completely lost it here and that it is some kind of self-projection.
My friend in Altai simply thinks that he has caused too much damage now and everything is a cry for help for someone to take him out of the picture because apparently death by caviar is not allowed in the Orthodox Church.
So now you know and that it is only a matter of time, with some risk that I misunderstood something in the communication from my lonely buddy in Altai, half of it was voice messages and to show off he always records them in very broken Swedish with a heavy Russian accent like in a bad action movie 😀
A little newsflash is that Wagner supports local talents in Ghana who aim to overthrow the country’s government – Russia not only fuels but also creates new conflicts where none exist.
Then the party that wants a free Catalonia has been proven to have ties with Russia.
https://twitter.com/jayinkyiv/status/1717744349625086357?s=46&t=mKQUIEtRiuX7R03YmcSj9A
This can never be said often enough, the country Russia bears a huge debt for a lot of what is bad in the West for the simple reason that while the West tries to make the world better, Russia does its utmost to destabilize the West.
They now have training camps in several countries in Africa where they train opposition for armed uprisings, or alternatively they support a regime in a country – whichever pays best.
I’m getting some 1968 vibes from American universities right now, it worked excellently during the Vietnam War so why not dust off that influence operation and run it again. No shortage of films where damn students have to flee lynch mobs so when I say 1968 it’s the same reaction but a slightly different outcome.
The bridgeheads at the Dnieper seem to be growing daily, unfortunate for the southern front command.
12:25 – Johan No.1
Do you remember when we only had Liveuamap to rely on for information? Today, anyone can be General Patton and follow the war in real time, not just those of us related to him through a secretary. I’ve also felt for a while that OSINT analysts with their finger on the pulse can read situations better than the experts who are still stuck in pre-war thinking at times; there are a couple who are really good.
The country of Ukraine cannot go more “all-in” than they already have, and Russia can forget about a negotiated solution even if they nervously start looking for a way out now, or they have been doing so for a long time but now it’s becoming a crisis situation.
The West has made a classic mistake best summarized as “He who is merciful to the wicked will eventually become wicked to the merciful.” By letting Russia get away with things for too long, the West has contributed to the suffering we now see, and the most honest course of action would be to ensure that Ukraine beats the hell out of Russia as quickly as possible, but we have been hoping for that for 1.5 years now.
The great patriotic three-day special operation is going so-so, most people are probably starting to agree. When we saw the drone footage of a Russian mechanized unit the size of a company with trucks from the 40s or 50s, it became pretty clear that the barns are empty and a new low point has been reached.
(otherwise they would have used BMP-3s and T90s, right!)
The contrast to the commanders in the invading units having booked tables at all the best restaurants in Kiev in early March 2022 and packed their parade uniforms could not be greater.
Then we have had a pretty sensational shifting of goals that has been continuous, where the definition of what counts as a Russian win has been constantly redefined. Both by the Russians themselves and the collective experts.
Unfortunately, the enchantment that Russia is a great existential threat refuses to be broken for many, not even trucks from the 50s can do that. They simply must have unlimited everything, 70-year-old officers and T54-55s don’t count. And then the usual – “even a T54-55 is deadly” – a muzzle-loaded musket with a bayonet is also deadly, or a spear.
I doubt Russia really has any plan today; the last straw to grasp was that the West would betray Ukraine and force a negotiated solution, but the West is not doing that, the West has just announced the war-winning weapon packages and so they are not reasonably on their way to betray.
Everyone wonders how long Ukraine can hold out. The question that should be asked is how long can Russia DAILY afford to lose – 40 artillery pieces, 40 hard vehicles, and 1500 dead and wounded?
Because that is what everyday life will look like until the war ends, Ukraine will not run out of either drones or ammunition and they are only getting better at killing Russians in every conceivable way.
I want to nuance that speech Zelensky gave that we were supposed to interpret as him starting to worry that Western support is faltering.
New speech – the illusion about Russia is broken, nothing to be afraid of anymore (already proven hundreds of times in the war).
https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1716796320235561452?s=46&t=Jxcuz1cyiNBywPmZawDvtA
Then he promises that UA will hit back hard against RU infrastructure if they try a winter campaign, f@ck around and find out (which the Russians will of course do and then sit and sulk all winter after getting a Grom 2 in the Kremlin) 😀
https://twitter.com/glasnostgone/status/1717168383190265987?s=46&t=JgT_Zp-ZuRumigCXud72fA
And if we thought Ukraine was starting to run short on everything, they are now setting up 5 new mechanized brigades.
https://twitter.com/militarylandnet/status/1714376663193026943?s=46&t=KOe8ZUBbcgLUW9l6BW9iTw
The mistakes from the Russian side over the past year have been endless, and very embarrassing, but they still have their impact on public opinion and direct influence on decision-making. For some reason, the West refuses to see it for what it is.
They managed to get Germany and France to fool Zelensky into thinking there would be no war, but it seems these two have done everything to make the world forget that. Macron also sent the first “tanks,” which was well received by everyone who had no military knowledge as a consolation prize.
It also passed by the other day, and I didn’t save the link, that the US was late with weapons to Ukraine because they were worried about a nuclear war. In hindsight, one can only conclude that the best in the US could hardly have been more wrong, right?
Then most have probably forgotten that RU fooled the world into demilitarizing Ukraine, great patience and much evil. Obama in Ukraine watching ammunition destruction.
https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1717537281592926544?s=46&t=GTMGEAqJgN4tCSEeOm2aNQ
At the start of the war, only a few were properly calibrated and later many got it right, but now it’s starting to slip again.
Just because it has been quiet for a while doesn’t mean it will be quiet for another two years. Have we learned nothing from Kherson, Kiev, Izyum, Kharkiv or Kupiansk?
When Ukraine grinds on for long periods, it is to achieve something, right? They don’t lose soldiers because it’s fun in itself to lose soldiers.
That’s also why I can’t understand how the West can still hold back weapons – for what purpose?
The absolute smartest thing would be to give Ukraine the key to the warehouse.
That leads me to believe that Russia still has influence in decision-making. They can crash all EU consensus decisions right now with Orban, for example.