10:32 – Johan No.1
The mechanized lions ✊
https://twitter.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1724104250068791462?s=46&t=aWLAtFMyrNOaYt-qCCuoNA
We are likely at the watershed now – either Russia loses and turns inward (the probable outcome) or they manage to cheat their way to a win and can wriggle out of this and then they continue.
Shame on anyone who gives up, then it will probably be the next step in the plan – Moldova, the Baltics, and lots of influence on Finland.
I read to my great surprise that Finland has had problems with fifth columnists in its own political ranks over the years and all these damned houses on islands that are strategically important suggest that not everyone is working to keep the Russian out at the gate in Finland.
A scenario we have often written about during the war – Russia topples a government in Estonia and gets a Russia-friendly government that invites Russian peacekeeping forces, what will NATO do then?
For anyone who knows their history and has a reasonable understanding of things, it should be very clear that the country Russia pushes forward its positions and will not give up unless they are defeated enough to shake the leadership for a power change.
No one can today predict how it will end and then the West must prepare for the risk – a strong eastern border and that includes all of Ukraine. Then if Belarus happens to have a popular revolution and Kaliningrad happens to be demilitarized, that would be purely positive.
I think everyone understands the purpose of Ukraine taking so many prisoners of war and treating them well – they are preparing for the liberation of Russia and prisoners who are treated well quickly queue up for ethnically Russian fighting units. Unclear when UA started thinking like this but in the videos the prisoners are treated better and better so clearly there is a plan behind it all. “Freedom Russia” and the other units make rounds in the prison camps and recruit as much as they can. For quite a while it was fun with tape, nowadays they care about the prisoners and see them as a resource.
The Dnipro front is becoming difficult to supply, partly UA now has fire on the road that runs along the river and the drone screen lies deep, 20-25km according to Russian reports.
Then the 810th Marine Infantry has reported that they are at a disadvantage of 1:3. This is of course one unit but it is their everyday reality right now. Yesterday RU also fought off a counterattack at the Dnipro with the usual epic losses.
https://twitter.com/andysch64494719/status/1723741676445810970?s=46&t=UQMfZqvirpxmORVbMfyozQ
Then SOF and partisans have fun every night against Russian third-rate troops without night vision.
The Dnipro front is becoming as difficult to supply as Kherson was when it was happening but there they still had enormous supplies in the city of Kherson that UA did not destroy – at the Dnipro there is nothing because the Russians themselves swept away the supplies with the Khakovka dam breach.
Then RIA and TASS simultaneously announced that the Dnipro front will be abandoned in a tactical redeployment of divine capability or something like that, so naturally such thoughts are simmering among the combat leadership even if it was announced too early by mistake.
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1723977004280590389?s=46&t=aWLAtFMyrNOaYt-qCCuoNA
The idea is probably to retreat down to prepared defenses at the land bridge to Crimea and an NS line through Melitopol for defense east – that’s the only prepared defense I can find.
They will destroy as much as they can in Enerhodar of course.
Then they get a “horseshoe defense” at the southern front and can pool a couple more brigades there.
Smart?
Not at all, since UA has gotten rid of the Russian navy, most of the LV platforms are gone. They can take abandoned terrain and start moving artillery, LV and heavy vehicles.
Since it always gets chaotic with the Russians, some units will not get the order and be overrun.
Then UA will unleash everything they have in their arsenal on the retreating Russians – Kuwait highway 2.0.
The signal for when it’s time will be when the artillery fires all its ammunition over Kherson.
It will be distributed so that some units go down to Crimea and some behind the southern front.
Crimea today is said to have 12,000 in defense according to what we have been told.
Then maybe 10,000 – 15,000 retreat down there?
After that it’s over, no reinforcements by land or via Kerch.
Over time Crimea will be taken so when the retreat from the Dnipro plays out the chess move is delivered but then Russia must understand that as well.
What is the alternative – that the UA makes a hard breakthrough and rolls into Crimea without resistance, which would be even worse.
The logic in this, why do they attack like madmen at Avdiivka and then retreat from the Dnipro?
The Dnipro front is very long and swallows many units, and Ukraine has now (again) maneuvered Russia into a position where they have to choose what to defend. We wrote about this last summer, if I recall correctly, when it was already rumored that the Dnipro would be abandoned.
The attacks at Avdiivka are probably partly politically motivated – Putin wants any kind of win.
Northern Luhansk is smartly fought to try to reach the Oskil river – that should have happened already last winter but did not.
At Bakhmut they are trying to hold out.
Then Avdiivka and Vuhledar are also front straightening, so something attractive, and RU is also trying to find a weak point, which is why they are attacking broadly right now in all possible places because in their world there must be something poorly defended, but so far they have only driven into minefields and defenses 😀
After the Belgorod raid 1, the thread probably thought that even Russia would understand what would happen if they abandoned northern Luhansk – a 3 times longer unprotected border than today. We guessed that they would instead abandon the area behind the southern front and start with the Dnipro.
Before that, I guessed they would abandon northern Luhansk but no one could have understood that the border was completely unguarded, staggering.
And this seems to be exactly what is about to happen, otherwise RU would have reinforced the Dnipro front long ago. Now they held it as long as they could instead.
Yes, they try to post the daily lions to keep morale up but this is an absolute sh1t war with endless suffering. The worst cards in the whole war are probably held by the newly mobilized who have been sold to Storm Z by some corrupt officer now that it is no longer Wagner, because then they were the worst – slaves plain and simple with guaranteed death, a win if it does not happen under torture and the biggest jackpot if they manage to surrender.
It is easy to forget all the personal tragedies and that the Ukrainian soldiers have no choice here, they cannot choose to leave when it gets too heavy and if they lose focus they die, setbacks affect them themselves.
Mix of films on the theme of sh1t war –
https://twitter.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1723342632603033975?s=46&t=zoOhM4nDy7016SWIB3kjhA
https://twitter.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1723794286444007935?s=46&t=zoOhM4nDy7016SWIB3kjhA
https://twitter.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1723732294626578701?s=46&t=zoOhM4nDy7016SWIB3kjhA
The subject of drones, imagine if China manages to get military drones to operate in cohesive swarms like in the film – since the technology exists civilly it also exists militarily, right? Now there is still some way to go before it becomes autonomous on the battlefield but that is the future. When Johan No.1 exclaimed that the drone weapon was a disappointment a few months into the war, it was someone with this vision and we have often talked about small 10cm long autonomous drones with 50g explosive tips hunting shooters. The future is already here.
https://twitter.com/howthingswork_/status/1724009458915758280?s=46&t=aWLAtFMyrNOaYt-qCCuoNA
It has probably not escaped anyone that Germany has just excelled in the subject of strategic communication – credit to the steel axle, for 8 billion euros, then that the support will be doubled and finally – no discussion unless Russia leaves Ukraine (that’s how I interpreted it). Scholz’s suits set the fashion in the world.
Perpetua’s hitlist, as usual only Russian vehicles.
https://twitter.com/andrewperpetua/status/1724264579180437775?s=46&t=XHkITFvEj4Vcb60o55N-xw
WAPO is very deep down the rabbit hole of Russian psyops which is strange,
https://twitter.com/glasnostgone/status/1723711651428319497?s=46&t=UQMfZqvirpxmORVbMfyozQ
It is also indisputable that “the other side,” that is those who have stood and seen the pro-P…a protests become anti-everything and jump on the most sacred things countries have, have now started, or been activated…
Welcome a very lively EU thanks to Russia 😐
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1723755554667925688?s=46&t=zoOhM4nDy7016SWIB3kjhA
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1723663642590126160?s=46&t=UQMfZqvirpxmORVbMfyozQ
N…u currently has very strange rhetoric – I can’t I..el enough but guess it is to balance hardliners in his own ranks or something?
He is a controversial figure but I find it very hard to believe that RU has gotten to him even though the first head of state he called was Putin?
He pours unnecessary gasoline on the fire through sensational statements all the time now, he should keep quiet and let the military do its job and then de-escalate the situation. This sharply raised tone is unlike I..el in how they have acted before.
Here you have a crazy film from a car camera driving around explosions.
https://twitter.com/benyehuda65/status/1723687530787168339?s=46&t=UQMfZqvirpxmORVbMfyozQ
HIMARS in Kreminna, it is exciting because it signals a slightly changed ambition level in that area, right?
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1723711854151667823?s=46&t=UQMfZqvirpxmORVbMfyozQ
Overall, the Dnipro front is collapsing for the Russians and they have two options, try to retreat in time or flee when it breaks, they seem at least to be considering the first option.
Maybe that’s why Teplinsky came to the Dnipro front?
The alternative would have been that Teplinsky came there to strike the bridgeheads but then he would have been accompanied by strategic reserves and 350 AP-tired soldiers from the 810th Marine Infantry do not qualify as that.
Looks very good and if they can create an isolated island of the Dnipro front they can create isolated islands everywhere, right, as long as they pool enough capabilities.
Positive-Positive as usual.
10:34 – Johan No.1
Today’s post unfortunately got stuck in the filter and if there is time it would be nice to get it released from the freezer 👍
Have that damn job again today so can’t hang out here (unfortunately 😭) but the post is long and tried to make it interesting as compensation 😀
10:49 – MatsExtrude
What?!! When you for once write an interesting post you make sure it ends up in the freezer? 😉
Your essays are always interesting so now you have really managed to raise expectations!
15:16 – Johan No.1
Still stuck in the WordPress freezer but wrote below in today’s post,
The subject of drones, imagine if China manages to get military drones to operate in cohesive swarms like in the film – since the technology exists civilly it also exists militarily, right? Now there is still some way to go before it becomes autonomous on the battlefield but that is the future. When Johan No.1 exclaimed that the drone weapon was a disappointment a few months into the war, it was someone with this vision and we have often talked about small 10cm long autonomous drones with 50g explosive tips hunting shooters. The future is already here.
https://twitter.com/howthingswork_/status/1724009458915758280?s=46&t=aWLAtFMyrNOaYt-qCCuoNA
15:41 – Johan No.1
Ukraine today has many “analog” drones and autonomous drones are starting to appear little by little.
What we haven’t seen yet on the battlefield are swarms of “smart autonomous drones” flying around in houses, etc. I guess those drone shows are heavily pre-programmed and involve a huge amount of Chinese work behind them, but it’s only a matter of time before you can have drone swarms sniffing around like dogs after targets over large areas.
Ukraine has tested the first drone hunter drones and those swarms will of course also come, maybe small fast drones with explosive tips chasing all kinds of drones?
16:20 – Johan No.1
MXT still has the mandatory commenting obligation when posts come late now that Erik14 was quick.
16:45 – MatsExtrude
Thanks for today’s essay!
It certainly looks like things are moving in the right direction at the Dnipro, nice that they are starting to yield good results.
However, I am a bit worried about how things will develop at Avdiivka.
I have, by the way, been concerned about Avdiivka since March but now it has actually moved in the wrong direction for over a month. Admittedly with enormous Russian losses but they keep stubbornly grinding away..
I think it would be devastating if Avdiivka were to fall. Russian propaganda would get a huge boost but worse is probably that it would surely also corrode Ukrainian self-confidence.
Also, I really don’t like that the Russians have small successes at Bakhmut. There I thought Ukraine would have secured properly and be able to hold out.
On the other hand, the Russians haven’t achieved much and it costs them dearly. It’s not impossible that what we see is their death throes.
Far from any panic, but I feel more “positively cautious half-positive” 🙂
16:49 – MatsExtrude
I replied to the second of the two, thought it was much better formulated than this first attempt! 😉
17:51 – Johan No.1
🤣🤣
18:33 – Johan No.1
Never forget the fallen
https://twitter.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1724452838766502277?s=46&t=ldtpoeSdfnHilnDM8xV7TA
19:04 – MatsExtrude
💔🫡
10:30 – Johan No.1
The mechanized lions ✊
https://twitter.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1724104250068791462?s=46&t=aWLAtFMyrNOaYt-qCCuoNA
We are probably at the watershed now – either Russia loses and turns inward (the likely outcome) or they manage to cheat their way to a win and can wriggle out of this, and then they continue.
Shame on anyone who gives up, so then it will probably be the next step in the plan – Moldova, the Baltics, and lots of influence on Finland.
To my great surprise, I read that Finland has had problems with fifth columnists within its own political ranks over the years and all those damn houses on strategically important islands suggest that not everyone is working to keep the Russians at bay in Finland.
A scenario we have often written about during the war – Russia topples a government in Estonia and gets a pro-Russian government that invites Russian peacekeeping forces, what will NATO do then?
For anyone who knows their history and has a reasonable understanding of things, it should be very clear that the country Russia is advancing its positions and will not give up unless they are defeated enough to shake up the leadership for a change of power.
No one can predict today how it will end and then the West must take the risk into account – a strong eastern border and that includes all of Ukraine. Then if Belarus happens to have a popular revolution and Kaliningrad happens to be demilitarized, that would be entirely positive.
I think everyone understands the purpose of Ukraine taking so many prisoners of war and treating them well – they are preparing for the liberation of Russia and prisoners who are treated well quickly line up for ethnically Russian fighting units. It is unclear when UA started thinking like this but in the videos the prisoners are treated better and better so clearly there is a plan behind it all. “Freedom Russia” and the other units make rounds in the prison camps and recruit as much as they can. For quite a while it was fun with tape, nowadays they care about the prisoners and see them as a resource.
The Dnipro front is becoming difficult to supply, partly UA now has fire on the road that runs along the river and the drone screen lies deep, 20-25 km according to Russian sources.
Then the 810th marine infantry has reported that they are at a 1:3 disadvantage. This is of course one unit but it is their everyday reality right now. Yesterday RU counterattacks at the Dnipro were also pushed back with the usual epic losses.
https://twitter.com/andysch64494719/status/1723741676445810970?s=46&t=UQMfZqvirpxmORVbMfyozQ
Then SOF and partisans have fun every night against Russian third-rate troops without night vision.
The Dnipro front is becoming as difficult to supply as Kherson was when it mattered but there they still had huge supplies in the city of Kherson that UA did not destroy – at the Dnipro there is nothing because the Russians swept away the supplies themselves with the Khakovka dam breach.
Since RIA and TASS simultaneously announced that the Dnipro front will be abandoned in a tactical redistribution of divine ability or something similar, such thoughts are naturally simmering among the combat leadership even if it was announced prematurely by mistake.
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1723977004280590389?s=46&t=aWLAtFMyrNOaYt-qCCuoNA
The idea is probably to retreat down to prepared defenses at the land bridge to Crimea and an NS line through Melitopol for defense east – that is the only prepared defense I can find.
They will of course destroy as much as they can in Enerhodar.
Then you get a “horseshoe defense” on the southern front and can pool a couple more brigades there.
Smart?
Not at all, since UA has gotten rid of the Russian navy so most of the LV platforms are gone. They can take over abandoned terrain and start moving artillery, LV and heavy vehicles.
Since it always gets chaotic with the Russians, some units will not get the order and be overrun.
Then UA will unleash everything they have in their arsenal over the retreating Russians – Kuwait highway 2.0.
The signal for when it’s time will be when the artillery fires all its ammunition over Kherson.
It will be distributed so that some units go down to Crimea and some behind the southern front.
Crimea today is said to have about 12,000 in defense according to what we have heard.
Then maybe 10,000 – 15,000 retreat down there?
After that it’s over, no reinforcements by land or via Kerch.
Over time Crimea will be taken so when the retreat from the Dnipro plays out the chess move is delivered but then Russia must understand that too.
What is the alternative – that UA gets a hard breakthrough and rolls into Crimea without resistance, even worse.
The logic in this, why do they attack like madmen at Avdiivka and then retreat from the Dnipro?
The Dnipro front is very long and swallows many units and Ukraine has now (again) maneuvered Russia into a position where they must choose what to defend. We wrote about this last summer some, if I remember correctly, when it was already rumored that the Dnipro would be abandoned.
The attacks at Avdiivka are probably partly politically motivated – Putin wants any kind of win.
Northern Luhansk is smartly fought to try to reach the Oskil river – that should have come already last winter but did not.
At Bakhmut they are trying to hold out.
Then Avdiivka and Vuhledar are also front straightening so something attractive and RU is also trying to find a weak point, that is why they attack broadly right now in all possible places because in their world there must be something poorly defended but so far they have only run into minefields and defenses 😀
After Belgorod raid 1 the thread probably thought that Russia would also understand what would happen if they abandoned northern Luhansk – 3 times as long unprotected border as today. We guessed that instead they would abandon the area behind the southern front and start with the Dnipro.
Before that I guessed they would abandon northern Luhansk but you could not have understood that the border was completely unguarded, dizzying.
And this seems to be exactly what is about to happen because otherwise RU would have long ago reinforced the Dnipro front. Now they held it as long as they could instead.
Yes, they try to post the daily lions to keep morale up but this is an absolute sh1t war with endless suffering. The worst cards in the whole war probably belong to the newly mobilized who were sold to Storm Z by some corrupt officer now that it is no longer Wagner because then they were the worst – slaves plain and simple with guaranteed death, a win if it does not happen under torture and the biggest jackpot if they manage to surrender.
It is easy to forget all the personal tragedies and that the Ukrainian soldiers have no choice here, they cannot choose to leave when it gets too heavy and if they do not keep focus they die, slumps affect themselves.
Mix of videos on the theme of sh1t war –
https://twitter.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1723342632603033975?s=46&t=zoOhM4nDy7016SWIB3kjhA
https://twitter.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1723794286444007935?s=46&t=zoOhM4nDy7016SWIB3kjhA
https://twitter.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1723732294626578701?s=46&t=zoOhM4nDy7016SWIB3kjhA
The topic of drones, imagine if China manages to get military drones to operate in coordinated swarms like in the movie – since the technology exists in the civilian sector, it also exists militarily, right? Now, it’s probably still a way off before it becomes autonomous on the battlefield, but that’s the future. When Johan No.1 exclaimed that the drone weapon was a disappointment a few months into the war, there was someone with this vision, and we have often talked about small 10cm long autonomous drones with 50g explosive tips hunting shooters. The future is already here.
https://twitter.com/howthingswork_/status/1724009458915758280?s=46&t=aWLAtFMyrNOaYt-qCCuoNA
It has probably not escaped anyone that Germany has just excelled in the subject of strategic communication – credit to the steel eel, for 8 billion euros, then that the support will be doubled and finally – no discussion unless Russia leaves Ukraine (that’s how I interpreted it). Scholz’s suits set the fashion worldwide.
Perpetua’s hitlist, as usual only Russian vehicles.
https://twitter.com/andrewperpetua/status/1724264579180437775?s=46&t=XHkITFvEj4Vcb60o55N-xw
WAPO is very far down the rabbit hole of Russian psyops, which is strange,
https://twitter.com/glasnostgone/status/1723711651428319497?s=46&t=UQMfZqvirpxmORVbMfyozQ
It is also indisputable that “the other side,” meaning those who have stood and seen the pro-P…a protests turn anti-everything and jump on the most sacred things countries have, has now started, or been activated…
Welcome, very lively EU thanks to Russia 😐
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1723755554667925688?s=46&t=zoOhM4nDy7016SWIB3kjhA
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1723663642590126160?s=46&t=UQMfZqvirpxmORVbMfyozQ
Netanyahu currently has very strange rhetoric – I can’t I..el enough but guess it’s to balance hardliners in his own ranks or something?
He is a controversial figure but I find it very hard to believe that RU has gotten to him even though the first head of state he called was Putin?
He is pouring unnecessary gasoline on the fire with sensational statements all the time now, he should keep quiet and let the military do their job and then de-escalate the situation. This sharply raised tone is unlike I..el in how they have acted before.
Here you have a crazy video from a car camera driving around explosions.
https://twitter.com/benyehuda65/status/1723687530787168339?s=46&t=UQMfZqvirpxmORVbMfyozQ
HIMARS in Kreminna, it’s exciting because it signals a somewhat changed level of ambition in that area, right?
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1723711854151667823?s=46&t=UQMfZqvirpxmORVbMfyozQ
Overall, the Dnipro front is collapsing for the Russians and they have two options: try to retreat in time or flee when it breaks, they seem at least to be considering the first option.
Maybe that’s why Teplinsky came to the Dnipro front?
The alternative would have been that Teplinsky came there to strike the bridgeheads but then he would have been accompanied by strategic reserves and 350 AP-weary soldiers from the 810th Marine Infantry do not qualify as that.
Looks very good and if they can create an isolated island of the Dnipro front, they can create isolated islands everywhere, right, as long as they pool enough capabilities.
Positive-Positive as usual.