2023-11-19

10:49 – Johan No.1

We recently learned that Ukraine has lost about 70,000 dead, I believe, which gives a ratio of 1:5 compared to RU losses.
Is there anything that suggests this ratio will decrease going forward?
For Russia to win this war, they need to be able to absorb 5 times UA losses.
Today, a couple of million of mobilizable age have left Russia, 3-3.5 million was mentioned but it is unclear to me.
Losses in Ukraine are disputed in the thread, but for me it is at least 300k + 600k wounded.
Already today, the pool of possible candidates has been reduced by 4.5 million people, but now it seems the Russians are mobilizing everyone who can stand without support, so the pool of mobilizable has probably increased.

Almost all categories such as MBT, IFV, artillery, and barbarians have had their highest daily numbers during the autumn and also had a high average. Only the first month of the war is comparable to the recent months’ Russian losses. This is naturally a combination of both sides attacking now during the autumn.

According to an official UA source, RU has been pushed back 3km-8km from the Dnieper at present. This is not reflected at all on the maps, so we will see if there will be any adjustment going forward.
https://twitter.com/euromaidanpress/status/1726145537513066865?s=46&t=kXF_fnyjjBXxXczsKQ7WyA

Erik14 refrained from tweeting about the proposal for a new Russian defensive line at the Dnieper and as mentioned, we have not yet seen any retreat even if the messages on TASS and RIA that came simultaneously suggest they are considering withdrawal.
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1726002191696093231?s=46&t=kXF_fnyjjBXxXczsKQ7WyA

So without commenting on the likelihood, let’s look at whether it is a sound plan or not.

They have actually thought (according to the above link which is a Twitter rumor!) to keep the same length of the front and only fall back beyond artillery range.

The reason is of course that UA holds dominant terrain on the other side and lob indirect and direct fire onto the defense, so it is completely unsustainable – something must be done and it is forced.

They envision the line in areas that today are not fortified at all and they will anchor it in settlements in the North and down to the coast in the South.

For this, they need a very high number, right?

They will not be able to retreat with existing units in good order, so they need to bring in strategic reserves or take from other fronts.

Immediately UA will transfer all heavier capabilities across the Dnieper and then reach this new line with everything within weeks.

They will look for weak points and since this is not well prepared, they exist.

It will be a dip in the curve on the way to completely abandoning the Dnieper front. The only logical thing would be an NS line through Melitopol and to defend the land bridge down to Crimea as well as a delaying battle if they are capable of that.

Yesterday we found out that RU pulled units from the southern front to Avdiivka.
Today we found out that UA took dominant terrain at Horlivka, two slag heaps.
It IS a myth that the Russians are strong because they attack at Avdiivka and that is exactly the image they want to paint.
They cannot hold the Dnieper line and have weak points elsewhere to be able to conduct offensive operations at Avdiivka.
https://twitter.com/intelcrab/status/1725919750088204503?s=46&t=kXF_fnyjjBXxXczsKQ7WyA

One should be very clear that Ukraine still has an offensive reserve that we have not yet seen. Then about thirty tanks or armored vehicles come in at a time at regular intervals. It is not hundreds but it tops up the losses.
Already today they have so much fragmentation protection that the home guard drives around in BMP-1 and PTGB to some extent.

David D is positive-positive I have thought for a long time and thinks like some in the thread about various situations. I also think he does his homework every time and backs it up with hard numbers.
Then he has a wall map where he moves the brigades manually – hard not to like him.
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1725891906582774195?s=46&t=kXF_fnyjjBXxXczsKQ7WyA

The ammunition from NK was just as bad as suspected.
https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1725821663273472476?s=46&t=VBQr7aJs9jIUxhPUb_WwqA

The Russians have again activated refugee flows. It is now generally accepted that they had a not insignificant hand in this since 2015?
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1725917812697293232?s=46&t=kXF_fnyjjBXxXczsKQ7WyA

Then they have now activated right-wing groups so it will be lively going forward in the west.
https://twitter.com/efischberger/status/1725954243310280794?s=46&t=kXF_fnyjjBXxXczsKQ7WyA

There is movement at the Dnieper and RU are unable to handle this, if they have already fallen back 3km-8km then UA has its bridgehead and can start transferring heavier weapons which is very good.
Then this is just part of the big campaign plan, one should not forget for those who remember it.

11:26 – MatsExtrude

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16:46 – Johan No.1

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