2023-11-27 -

10:07 – Johan No.1

Putin is joking around a bit with the copies, lighthearted atmosphere 😀

https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1728770015959334977?s=46&t=3H6eqvNcLXwE4-XX6gxSyw

10:47 – MatsExtrude

😄

11:21 – Johan No.1

Far too many forget that Ukraine has been at war with Russia since 2014 when the West either betrayed Ukraine or at least did not set any boundaries at all for Russia when they invaded a country in Europe. Then they also invaded Moldova in Transnistria, and that was not front-page news in the media directly. All this disinterest naturally encouraged Putin to fully invade Ukraine, and further disinterest will motivate Putin to continue his conquest – it’s not more complicated than that.

In autumn 2022, Ukraine needed confidence and they got it; today they don’t need it because they know they can beat Russia.

Why would Ukraine give up now after 1.5 years when they finally get everything they point at and it’s absolutely going terribly for Russia in the war?

The Ukrainians themselves know what their population has been subjected to since 2014 and for hundreds of years before that.
On the other side of the scale is EU membership and entering the warmth of the West – quite attractive.

That Ukraine will be forced into negotiations on bad terms or voluntarily come crawling to such will not happen even though Putin is absolutely desperate now. It has been hinted in the media more than once from Russia in the past month that they are absolutely ready for negotiations.
Will return to this below.

An open question regarding Putin being afraid of NATO expansion – now that it seems generally accepted after some months that they have moved air defense from Kaliningrad to Ukraine, isn’t that the opposite reaction to being terrified of NATO?
Kaliningrad is surrounded by NATO and they weaken the defense there?
Asking for a friend who doesn’t quite understand how it fits together because he thinks the whole narrative that it’s all NATO’s fault for expanding so close to Russia is wrong.

I think NATO is a bit like when a gang that owns a suburb somewhere gets a local police station and screams police brutality. They are worried that their crime will suffer but the whole suburb is very happy that they are finally covered by the country’s laws. Russia wants to be able to pounce on weaker neighbors whenever they feel like it and NATO simply makes this harder.

Then there was that exercise by the West trying to get Russia to reinforce other borders. NATO is doing quite poorly if they demilitarize Kaliningrad…
Right when the war started, someone in the thread thought Japan should start running landing boats right at the territorial border so the marine infantry had to take the Siberian railway back but no one bit on that.
One could at least have bigger and more exercises in areas close to the Russian border?

The lions ✊
https://twitter.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1728493913495794116?s=46&t=9lqf0Vyv888jj9kiw53tPA
No one is born for this but they have stood up and done the impossible countless times risking their lives.

These soldiers will never give up, these are videos from now in November with rain and storm, does it look like they plan to throw in the towel?
https://twitter.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1728787131185688771?s=46&t=9lqf0Vyv888jj9kiw53tPA

Faces of Freedom was what the poster called this, fitting.
https://twitter.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1727749566349320279?s=46&t=9lqf0Vyv888jj9kiw53tPA

Avdiivka is not Bakhmut and why it is Russian chaos category 1. It is one big graveyard that will hopefully have similar consequences for the army as Bakhmut had for Wagner.
https://nitter.net/secretsqrl123/status/1728615103182897188?s=20

The operational cover is tight but it seems UA has a broader and deeper bridgehead than the maps suggest.
Russian counterattacks also seem to be regularly repelled.
The purpose is actually already achieved, they have opened a real threat in the rear of the southern front that either forces a retreat or must be tried to be beaten – which will fail with enormous losses.

The area suggests that they will build up a strong bridgehead and be able to continue offensive operations in the area.
So everyone who says the spring offensive has failed – how does a bridgehead over the Dnipro fit into that picture?
Especially since RU hasn’t managed to take a square meter of land lately.

And the summary of the spring offensive below in costs is pleasant reading
https://twitter.com/spartan_news1/status/1728469667587469723?s=46&t=9lqf0Vyv888jj9kiw53tPA

Winter – I want to remember from history lessons that Russia attacked mostly in WW2 during winter because that was when the Germans had it hardest?
This is how bad the Russians are doing today,
https://twitter.com/andysch64494719/status/1728877883190563316?s=46&t=3H6eqvNcLXwE4-XX6gxSyw

If this lasts for a longer period we will most likely get dead snowman-Russia (this is probably a UA video but shows the weather)
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1728799579028480068?s=46&t=9lqf0Vyv888jj9kiw53tPA

HMS Repulse might have something about God’s displeasure maybe but I think Putin is really painfully alone, not even the weather wants to be friends with him.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1729057538883395771?s=46&t=3H6eqvNcLXwE4-XX6gxSyw

For those of you who have followed the deliveries the past six months, you know that a few hundred BV206 or the fragmentation-protected version have been delivered. They get through everywhere because they are built to get through everywhere so for prioritized brigades it means maintenance.

Then there have been “winter packages” from several countries so prioritized brigades are likely fully winter-equipped.
Sure, we will see territorial forces standing and shivering in videos but that doesn’t mean offensive units have lost their combat value.

Putin himself has hinted that Russia is ready for negotiations and several channels have sent the same message. He thinks he can go over Ukraine’s head and make some advantageous deal with the West and Bild’s article about Scholz and Biden cooking something fits well into this.

October 7th there was a terror attack, demonstrations with thousands of participants with suppressed placards the day after (quick work…) and more conflict-filled at least in my social media. Right now it’s all the T…ps campaign videos filling my feed.

Then came a deepfake video with Zalizny urging revolution and something else I forgot that was significant.

Do you know what else happened – Russia activated many sleeper agents in Ukraine to create a breeding ground for larger internal conflicts.
https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1729054302562394354?s=46&t=3H6eqvNcLXwE4-XX6gxSyw

For those of you who still don’t believe there are connections, it’s quite interesting that all this has managed to coincide in time within a month?

If you go by Oryx losses, Ukraine holds back about 80% of vehicles delivered from the West.
https://twitter.com/ukikaski/status/1728918425056014340?s=46&t=3H6eqvNcLXwE4-XX6gxSyw

Ukraine has shown it can retaliate proportionally but what is also constantly ongoing as a low-intensity war are all sabotage acts against war-important industry.
That tractor factory that makes tank engines, watch the video below the conclusion can only be that production of engines is over after that fireball?
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1728907017350435056?s=46&t=3H6eqvNcLXwE4-XX6gxSyw

We discussed 50,000 war-related amputations earlier, but now I have the impression that the number was between 20,000 – 50,000. Sky-high but it is a
https://twitter.com/jayinkyiv/status/1729035462826947066?s=46&t=3H6eqvNcLXwE4-XX6gxSyw

Russia is weak and trying to appear strong but it doesn’t succeed because everyone has read Sun Tzu. We will see what Ukraine can achieve with the weather, my money is on them being able to use it to their advantage and that it is the Russians who have been completely caught off guard by this, we will see but it is hard not to be positive given all the good news.

12:05 – MatsExtrude

👍 It will be interesting to see if it really is the case that the Russians are now on a downward slope. I believe what happens next in Avdiivka will show how much more they have left to give.

12:16 – Johan No.1

I think so too 👍

13:49 – Johan No.1

Attack on Krunky by units that should be further south, interesting both for the ambition to try to break the bridgehead but at the same time no reinforcements are supplied.

a larger attack so the two regiments have been heavily decimated one hopes.

https://twitter.com/astraiaintel/status/1729058224501088498?s=46&t=n2XU_vqM9G81WDIoEWHHBQ