14:06 – Johan No.1
Got a bit late, lots of meetings…
14:32 – Johan No.1
I was thinking, unlike the Cold War where a lot was ideologically motivated because the Soviets had no cash to pay with.
Yes, honey traps with film and where minors might be involved are probably A1 in the extortion book…
I have the impression that many who have been exposed recently have been very well paid.
Then it can be a combo; once you’ve received the first payment, you’re a tax criminal and all that, and can be blackmailed for that too.
15:01 – MatsExtrude
It’s completely insane that Russia has such success in its subversive activities and gets so many to stand in their corner. Seems to be easy to buy supporters regardless of what level they are at.
The craziest thing of all is that the US even hesitates when it comes to providing support. The country that previously had Russophobia now consists to such a large extent of Putin-admiring MAGA crazies that they manage to get the rest of the Republicans to follow their lead and thereby freeze the issue. Before, they would have thrown in everything they could to get the chance to sink Russia without taking their own losses.
If support from the US is withheld, I’m afraid it will get really tough. The EU and others have the capacity to fix it anyway if they want, the question is whether they will really manage it?
It’s not impossible that the countries in the EU will also reduce support and hope Ukraine will be forgotten (and that the Russians have already taken so much beating that they won’t manage more for a few years). Our politicians are short-sighted and none of them want to have to raise taxes etc. I hope I’m wrong if we end up there if the US fails.
When it comes to the war, it’s good to look back a bit as you do. Since the first month of the war, it’s Russia that has had to retreat about 50%. Comparing the map from a year ago, basically nothing has happened. Sure, the Russians took Bakhmut, but that’s really no area to speak of. Then there has been some movement here and there but overall it has stood still.
If Russia were invincible with endless resources… Isn’t it very strange that they haven’t gotten anywhere?
They are completely stuck. Ukraine hasn’t managed to take back any larger areas yet, but considering the Russian losses, this period (the year) in the match must still go to Ukraine.
08:52 – Johan No.1
If the US doesn’t deliver because it’s blocked, countries westward in Europe that are not part of the border defense can basically send all unit-equipped equipment to Ukraine, right?
No one seriously believes that Spain will jump on Portugal or vice versa, and if it has come to a point where Portugal needs to defend itself with tanks against Russia, then it’s over anyway.
So the equipment would have done the most good in Ukraine, and that’s probably where the Belgians’ F-16s come in; they don’t need an air force because they have free protection from a number of countries that will take the hit before them.
14:05 – Johan No.1
Zelensky is doing what he does best, leading his country ✊
https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1732293201992597884?s=46&t=J4zeP7xgZNL5hGr3r-eBiA
I also want to highlight that a Russian influence operation right now is running what looks like Ukrainian accounts (and sometimes established accounts that are pro-Russian sleepers) that are furious about the lack of Western support to create a conflict surface between the West and Ukraine. It’s clever but the West is smarter and now we know it’s from the Russians.
The Ukraine war has point by point shown that the Swedish Armed Forces’ strategy and direction have always been completely right, we would have managed.
I thought it was a good question asked in the thread the day before yesterday about how NATO would handle an attack into the Baltics, whoever wrote that?
Earlier in the thread, we discussed what would happen if Russian subversive activity succeeded in toppling a government in Estonia and installing a pro-Russian government that did not want anything to do with NATO but invited Russian peacekeeping troops.
Everything is relevant because that’s how Russia works, they have just toppled the Netherlands.
I also believe that if NATO is faced with a fait accompli after a lightning-fast offensive, the willingness to retake Estonia at perhaps a loss of 200,000 soldiers would be low.
We have also discussed JEF before and that they might take over the defense of our eastern border.
Russia has with relatively small means completely neutralized US aid to Ukraine and now a last attempt will probably be made before Christmas but today it looks somewhat decent.
In the branch of strategic communication against Putin, this is a disaster, he has gotten a serious energy boost from this.
Don’t forget that a Russian attack on Gotland would happen without Sweden being at war.
Same with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
Yes, they build up at the border but the subversive activity will be absolutely deafening.
So…
A Russian Zapad exercise where a sufficiently large landing force and helicopter ships lie just outside in international waters with their protection would probably have been able to reach Gotland and our defense of Gotland is not several brigades strong.
Now maybe I’m miscalculating but the sailing time with ships at high speed from the territorial waters border is probably at most an hour?
That is not much time for the Swedish chain of command to get organized especially not if there is storm force on the influence operation at the same time and the government is in major conflict.
I absolutely think that questions about Gotland and the Baltics are relevant because Russia will try to surprise again while there is chaos everywhere.
No chance, say many, but the country Ukraine, which was already at war, was caught off guard by the attack because Putin managed to get Macron and a German multi-star general to calm Zelensky down.
Then we see how JEF has taken matters into their own hands and patrols the Baltic Sea. I wouldn’t be surprised if much of the eastern border defense going forward is through JEF and that Ukraine and Poland join there.
But you see how fast it changes, right, now the Netherlands is out…
Since the start of the war, Russia has gotten Slovakia and the Netherlands along with Hungary previously.
A lot is happening that we don’t know about but sometimes we get flashes –
-JEF takes over patrolling the Baltic Sea.
-The support package in the US is under enormous focus with half of the EU pushing and nagging.
-As on a given signal, country after country starts saying that Russia must be defeated.
Now we are really just waiting for what we hoped for this summer – the war-deciding support package and then the bad news would be almost too much for Putin but today this doesn’t look very good.
If Putin gets some kind of frozen situation in Ukraine then he and his circle have the mandate to continue.
If Putin’s imperialist army is thrown out of Ukraine feet first then he has to start over from zero, “go directly to jail without passing go” everyone knows how fun that is, right?
Then the air goes out of them and changes happen when others smell morning air and take over something on the bubble list.
The next phase in the geopolitical situation is simply decided in Ukraine, if Russia is defeated the world will consider this the great war of our time and return to a normal state.
The free West has already awakened and is slowly starting to ramp up production.
If Russia manages to get something they can spin as a win this will escalate and in a few years we’ll be in the queue at some mobilization depot fingering AK4s in too small M59s when China and the BRICS countries throw down the white glove.
It’s not more complicated than that and we have written this in the thread since spring 2022, it’s so incredibly clear.
I’ve probably never had high thoughts about Belgium and they first came on the radar when they complained the loudest of all that UA invaded Russia because some Russian volunteer had a UNFAL carbine or whatever it was?
Then this, it takes until 2025 before they can send their F16s, that’s worse than the Germans’ 5000 steel helmets 🤬
Previously they have frozen a lot of funds from Russian oligarchs but one wonders why the country Belgium had so much oligarch money, is it pro-Russian?
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1732014805748265192?s=46&t=9eCL-iSRwKVhicxXp3-DlA
Noted that Yass..r Araf..t had 42 billion SEK when he died. That there hasn’t been a bigger discussion than this about where the aid has gone is strange. H…as leaders are good for more than that…
As said, my son’s Christmas won’t be any happier knowing that his father has financed tunnels in G..a and H..as leaders’ luxury life.
Arafat’s wife wants to cheat the Palestinians out of the billion inheritance | News | Expressen
Right now it’s a very sad discussion but we must not forget that it is a Russian influence operation simmering as well.
That the US does not pass support for Ukraine means they do not honor the agreement from the 90s.
Clinton’s widest Colgate smile when Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal, 1000 missiles and some hundred weapon carriers.
The US should be ashamed but we are democracies and democracies are easy to hijack, Slovakia, the US and the Netherlands have fallen even though I have good hope for the US because the screws are probably being tightened now.
https://twitter.com/banderafella/status/1732009494857593281?s=46&t=9eCL-iSRwKVhicxXp3-DlA
The easiest way to get at all this is to make Russia a “state sponsor of terrorism” and my guess, which is probably not a guess, is that everyone doing Putin’s bidding today does it for money.
Then I saw some film from the Aldai group where they institute awards and treat the participants like rock stars so sure there is status involved too.
All these anonymous people who suddenly reach the skies but they have also been paid and that’s where you get to them.
You have to give Russia credit that they have succeeded beyond expectations in the only area they are good at – subversive activity.
Country after country becomes anti-Ukraine and in the US they fail to pass the support packages and the border to UA is blocked.
Now there is a long lead time before it makes an impact on the battlefield, but if Russia can maintain this, it harms Ukraine.
Now Zelensky has done what he is good at – promised Ukraine victory and that they will never give up.
Then there is probably a little Western psyops in the middle of all this to paint the devil on the wall, at least that’s how I interpret it 😀
The only thing the West needs to do is to continue sending weapons and ammunition, and then Ukraine will win. That Russia has started Maidan 3 signals to me that they are panicking, which is good.
Unfortunately, Ukraine needs to deliver something here and that will happen with heavy losses, but the Azov strike is under construction.
The West seems unable to handle the simplest thing here – if you want peace, you must prepare for war.
Ukraine, on the other hand, has first survived the largest sneak attack in modern times, forced the Russians to give up 50% of the conquered territories, effectively prevented Russian offensives during 2023, driven the Black Sea Fleet into retreat, decimated the air force and removed artillery, and launched a broad offensive.
Things are not going well for Russia!