12:11 – MatsExtrude
Thanks for today’s report!
It’s nice to see that Avdiivka seems to be under control. The question is how much the Russians are willing to sacrifice. So far it feels more like they continue with about the same intensity as before. I interpret it as that they do not have the capability to gather for bigger attacks than that, and that they might actually be under time pressure. Otherwise, they should wait for reinforcements so they could attack with much more resources.
I wish the EU could take the opportunity to promise both even more economic support and arms deliveries, now that it is “stalled” in the USA. It would be a clear signal to Russia that it does not matter if support from the USA disappears and that we will not back down.
It would also send a good signal to Ukraine, where they are surely somewhat worried by the USA’s wavering.
13:01 – Johan No.1
Do you remember that when RU’s winter offensive started you were very little worried that they would cut off Avdiivka from the north where that slag heap is. Then it was Krasnohorivka that mattered?
Fast forward to today and they are still stuck 😀
Exactly, Ukraine is after all the buddy fighting against the three big guys and looking to us for help.
13:35 – MatsExtrude
That’s right, it was probably a bit into the winter offensive, maybe February, when they made a smaller advance that then stalled. They have probably taken maybe 4x5km in the 9-10 months that have passed.. Embarrassingly slow.
13:46 – Johan No.1
Very well written Seeberger, I usually call it a “whack a mole” where you try to knock down the enemy’s capability and raise your own and when the combo is right you have a win – I agree with you that Ukraine excels at that.
Completely excited about the hovercrafts actually 😀 +500, absolutely brilliant idea.
The mine weapon is a weapon that the world’s arms industries brought with them that worked excellently in this war together with drone weapons and guided ammunition.
A ground-flying splinter-protected “helicopter” that just does not give ground pressure or a hovercraft with low ground pressure. Having shooting with jet engines does not work because then they are just big targets, crossed that out immediately 🤣
13:51 – Johan No.1
Russia has had land in Ukraine since 2014 but yes, Russia must get out of all of Ukraine – Ukraine must get back the 1991 borders and then be able to defend its country with help from the West and that then becomes part of our eastern border against barbarism. They need to have a maintained defense force to be able to secure their land border and that is probably why they do not go to zero in round 1.
Absolutely, wanting peace and preparing for war is what matters, and the EU must pay the countries that hold our eastern land border so they can have disproportionately large defense forces without collapsing.
Then the West must have rapid reaction brigades, maybe two from Sweden, that at the slightest shake are immediately sent to the eastern border where they have trained together with the countries twice a year or something?
13:55 – Johan No.1
Yes, that is the risk the West chooses to accept right now, they are simply gambling that Ukraine will not break under the increasing pressure.
Very few governments probably have full insight into Ukraine and know how the developments are going, so if I were the dictator of Sweden I would send everything they pointed to as loans to be returned in the condition it is in at the end of the war and hoped they managed to fight until the last Russian was out. Treating them as second-class citizens is a high risk.
Then maybe one more point, if Ukraine loses, 15,000,000 Ukrainians will form Europe’s new unstoppable mafia that will rule the underworld in the EU for decades.
11:20 – Johan No.1
The war is getting darker, not because Ukraine is fighting poorly but because the free West seems completely incapable of defending itself against Russian influence operations spreading like a wet blanket. The media has completely forgotten to report that the Russians are unable to secure bridgeheads over the Dnieper and that the strategic reserve 104th AAD is soon depleted.
We have reached one of those points again where lots of loose assumptions become truths again and when everyone forgets to look in the rearview mirror, unwarranted anxiety spreads –
-that the West has nothing more to send is a popular talking point that is disproven in the thread.
-that the West will force Ukraine to negotiate is disproven by all those accused denying it.
-that Ukraine cannot win – this one will not die out before Ukraine has won even though Russia has already lost 50% of the conquered territory 😀
-that Russia will win. The criteria for a win have changed so many times that I am no longer clear on what counts as a win for them but maybe someone can enlighten me. I also believe that goal shifting at this level automatically disqualifies any further discussion about Russia being able to win but I’m not sure.
-that Russia can threaten the EU within X number of years – here I become seriously curious because apparently quantity is a quality in itself when it comes to Russia and the Ukraine war, more mobilizable barbarians and more materiel than Ukraine and therefore Ukraine cannot win, period. But the EU has more mobilizable and more materiel than Russia – is it really fair debate technique to just flip that argument completely without shame?
The EU wants peace and must prepare for war, period. This task must be taken very seriously and one must expect that Russia will try to attack the Baltics, Gotland, Åland, Bornholm. One must also expect that they will try to topple governments in Moldova for example.
But that does not mean that Russia can conquer the EU or seriously threaten the EU.
It also does not mean that Russia can win in Ukraine – they have already lost the war in Ukraine.
The country Ukraine fights every day around the clock and the least the West can do is to honor Ukraine, ridicule Russia, carry out their amplifiers and send the weapons Ukraine needs.
Another story that has been heavily pushed is that Russia adapts and will emerge stronger from setbacks, presumably citing WW2.
Yes, we see that…
The fact is that those who have adapted and today fight like gods are Ukraine. There are complaints now and then about the incompetent Ukrainian army but their digital command and control “Uber for artillery” that delivers clustered Russians 1 minute after the drone has passed (according to Russian sources) is probably world-class.
In the Russian army there is reverse Darwinism because they wear out their units to 90% before pulling them out. The spearhead is wiped out and reformed and already last year training battalions and instructors were sent to Ukraine. During 2023 they didn’t even try and simply set up new thousands of units and let the old ones die when the last have passed away in hospital corridors because they didn’t receive care.
In the Ukrainian army they rotate and replenish with reserves so that expertise is transferred to newly enlisted, the group does not collapse to zero on the ladder and existing soldiers in the unit train the new recruits as fast as possible. There were some exceptions mainly up to Lysychansk when they had little choice.
Ukraine’s brigades are today elite units and even the home guard has SOF and some mechanization and are at least experienced infantry brigades.
When reading the descriptions of how Ukraine fights at the Dnieper it is 2023 and the technological edge that allows countries to operate at this scale. The cooperation required for this to work is of a higher school and Russia is completely incapable of this.
Descriptions from the Dnieper are roughly like when Skynet took over and the resistance in Terminator fought from the sewers.
Then we saw at Avdiivka how Russian armored infantry was transported forward in trucks from the 1950s – directly embarrassing and probably very bad for the morale of the infantry I guess.
How can Russia make the big leap in our time to 2023 in this war?
They can’t because they are incapable of 3D warfare in the way Ukraine conducts it, it simply doesn’t work.
Ukraine also has a very effective SOF, you remember the entire West’s SOF fighting in Ukraine, and an active partisan movement. They also have communication with at least six liberation fronts operating inside Russia to free the country from the dictatorship.
Russia would need to tear up and fundamentally change its training and rebuild the entire pyramid again and that takes several years.
The only thing they have left is subversive activity and that works perfectly because it is a prioritized state function while the West tries to make the world better.
Just look at the universities in the USA. A basic ingredient is to know the countries and echo chambers and amplify conflicts, what we usually call pouring gasoline on the fire.
That is why we write that the likelihood of attacks on Christmas markets or tearing down Christmas decorations is sky-high because it creates conflicts.
Quran burnings create conflicts and torn down Christmas decorations create conflicts.
There are many more tools in the Russian subversive arsenal and some we will never know about.
But they do not hesitate to murder when needed so nothing is off limits for the Russian dictatorship.
What happens then outside active fronts?
-Viking vendetta seems to have started and no one is safe in Russia, a traitor operating in Russia has been eliminated and it is not the first time.
-In Tyumen there is a fire at the railway. If anyone still has the railway map you will probably discover that it lies on the line China and NK – Russia.
https://x.com/PStyle0ne1/status/173248336872436
-There is a large number of “NAFO accounts” currently pushing the most far-fetched claims, this that NK is preparing to attack RU is one example of many things completely pulled out of thin air, Russian influence.
https://twitter.com/zendude11/status/1732063802982617432?s=46&t=J4zeP7xgZNL5hGr3r-eBiA
A Russian ship suitable for bottom work is moving back and forth over NS2 (again).
https://x.com/auonsson/status/1732151033063752044?s=20
Do you think it’s the copy or the original giving a high five to the Saudi crown prince and flashing the widest smile, quite unlike Putin one must say.
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1732473975077302515?s=20
Perpetua has continued sky-high loss ratio for RU, it’s anecdotal but that’s what his team finds in a day and it has value.
https://twitter.com/andrewperpetua/status/1732617431724458394?s=46&t=I8gtsgTCZqXyemGzJEuTrw
Now that Ukraine is soon supposed to lose it didn’t fit well when Zelensky went out statesmanlike and now Zalizny is doing the same, I thought Zalizny was preparing a coup against Zelensky who had allied with some other high general, we have undeniable evidence of this from anonymous sources?
https://x.com/banderafella/status/1732332818145976490?s=20
So what is happening right now?
RU has stalled in northern Luhansk, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka – they simply cannot advance.
Ukraine has established its bridgehead across the Dnieper and is pushing forward, as well as starting to move in northern Luhansk in the Kreminna forests and in front of Horlivka, while holding off RU offensive attempts at Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
The spring offensive has absolutely not slowed down, Ukraine advances as soon as an opportunity arises and takes back ground, and the underlying carpet bombing against rear functions and in depth is at a high intensity, as high as Ukraine can manage without getting hit by missiles 🤬
20 ATACMS took out +20 ahkp, you can guess what the air force would look like if they had received 500.
Then there is something that has not happened – the RU mobilization in April of 425,000 did not happen, nor did the September mobilization despite many directives on paper with stamps and signatures and serious press conferences with Shoigu.
It is still my conviction, as we probably wrote already in January, that Russia simply cannot mobilize a million angry men with weapons, as that is a direct threat to the regime rather than a smashing victory in Ukraine.
The only thing the criminal clan is really afraid of is popular revolution, then anything can happen and chance decides whether you end up dangling from a lamppost or not – the risk runs wild and they do not like risk.
That the citizens of Russia would not be negative to the war is a lie, pensioners burn down conscription offices, mobilized men are driven to the front kicking and screaming, and the widows are so angry that they try to hold demonstrations. The Russian state budget is also not doing well, and for the average Russian everything is worse today than before the war.
We have a positive bias from Russia right now because Putin has silenced critical voices while we have a negative bias from the West because Putin’s subversive activities are allowed to be as effective as they are, and surprisingly many fall for this.
If the USA were to lock up, there is one more measure that is quite simple – Spain, Portugal, Benelux, the UK, France, and Germany all enjoy full protection from the countries defending our eastern border – Finland, the Baltics, Poland, and Ukraine.
These countries can today, without risking anything at all, send 60-70% of their deployed equipment to Ukraine and only keep what is required for training and the intervention brigades.
Ukraine would then overrun the Russians in a few months, Leo2 has proven very effective in combat as have Bradley, CV90, Marder, and so on.
One could then let the USA forward base more in Europe during an interim period if that feels better and pay for it.
Ukraine has asked for – 200 advanced aircraft, 400-500 MBTs, and 1500 IFVs of Western manufacture, and the EU could deliver 3-4 times this without any increased risk to anything.
Then Western countries could buy up surplus equipment in the USA, right?
Pay for it and send it to Ukraine, we absolutely have astronomical budgets for various cool things both nationally and at the EU level where one can redirect enough for Ukraine to win this war.
But for some reason, suddenly everyone is a real budget hawk when it comes to support for Ukraine, and the biggest fraud of all – the cost of the equipment sent is not the new price.
The problem is not the Ukraine war or whether Russia will lose – the problem is the subversive activity that has managed to move the goalposts so much that there is even a discussion in the USA about whether to smash Russia or not. MXT, the legend on presumably two legs, wrote a good post about it in yesterday’s thread.
Russia is at war with the West, they know it themselves and act accordingly, the level of subversive activity is on par with the Cold War.
The solution to everything – make them a “state sponsor of terrorism” and then sort out who is on the payrolls and it will probably quiet down quite fast.
A small disappointment that the USA would not set up a training base on Gotland, I would have liked them to permanently station a battalion there and an Arleigh-Burke 😀
Amid all this marinating in Russian psyops, we must not forget – frozen Russian in a trench and that Ukraine runs around with the latest image intensifiers in bakelite while the Russian in the trench is starting to run out of batteries for their flashlights. An endangered species simply, the trench Russian 👍