10:43 – Johan No.1
Yesterday we went through what is happening in Ukraine, and there is much that is positive; Ukraine has survived the initial blow and risen from the ashes enough that Russia cannot handle this.
Russian losses since summer and autumn have been absolutely extreme and high in every respect.
UA is also working deeply, and an experienced helicopter pilot was murdered in Voronezh, which was later denied by the Russians, so probably true 😀
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1733780605781864858?s=46&t=BM8w9PQODMdgNiziQF6kFQ
SOF is so widespread that the mechanized brigades have their own sniper groups, but we already knew that when the Home Guard started setting up such earlier. UA snipers account for the second highest number of RU losses, so these field biologists are no small problem for the Russians.
https://twitter.com/militarylandnet/status/1733781984743182839?s=46&t=BM8w9PQODMdgNiziQF6kFQ
Then soon only BAE Systems in the UK will be able to manufacture 1.5 million shells per year in large calibers. Just BAE… and just large calibers…
The ammunition shortage was apparently another Russian influence operation.
https://twitter.com/cameron19460429/status/1733670684700594436?s=46&t=BM8w9PQODMdgNiziQF6kFQ
A bit ambiguous but possible that they are planning offensive operations on the northern front, the Russians.
https://twitter.com/blackrussiantv/status/1733513312887873637?s=46&t=sh9VAJ95j9SPJkhpo3MTAg
The number of eliminated barbarians continues to be sky-high above average even in December, and these days the Russian counterattacks from VDV have been pulverized at the Dnieper.
Posts about RU subversive activities always get a bit darker because it is not Ukraine that is beating them but a West that continues to act submissively.
What RU is now trying more and more is to win through their subversive activities, a cheat-win simply. So far the West has not taken the measures they should, and the blanket of disinformation is spreading more and more.
It costs Russia nothing to create chaos on the streets in the West.
It costs Russia almost nothing to create civil wars in Africa and conflicts between groups in different countries; they probably profit from their operations in Africa.
A low-budget solution simply, but it is only possible as long as the West chooses not to act, right? The day Russia is a “state sponsor of terrorism” it will go quiet very fast.
But unfortunately, there are a couple more levels of trouble.
Russia has been allowed to manipulate elections in the West and created the refugee crisis, the electricity crisis, and most recently through various targeted efforts against different groups succeeded in creating conflicts between different religions and nationalities; one example is the Quran burnings, another that they drew stars on J…a stores.
This causes fringe parties to thrive; first out were Slovakia and the Netherlands, but in Germany it does not look very good either. These countries will naturally block all attempts in their countries and the EU to make Russia a “state sponsor of terrorism,” but that does not prevent other countries from doing so on their own.
Something that has consistently been the fringe groups’ first point on the list in the past year when they have gained power is to stop supporting Ukraine, so I hardly think we need to discuss whether they are doing Putin’s bidding or not.
It is a bit simplified to say that during the Cold War some in the West supported the Soviet Union ideologically and now it is just money. The Russians are cunning animals and also give their contacts rock star status. They bring them to Russia at official events where they are treated with great respect, and the whole military parade and such is fun because they have never been allowed to come to the Nobel party.
They live in luxury hotels in Dubai with as many escorts as they can talk to and eat and drink the most expensive available – such things are surely also highly appreciated by many; one is now somewhat behind after all these years of anonymity.
Sure, money is fun, but the rock star status also attracts, and then they become celebrities in the West from having been nothing; if you get a quarter of the votes in an election, you suddenly are more than nothing.
During the Cold War, it was rumored that RU infiltrated rings of 3-4 spies who started at one level and worked their way up where they worked, then used their influence to help each other move up step by step. The one who got the highest pulled the others up with them.
“the long march through the institutions” is well known to everyone, but these were direct spies.
If there were insurmountable obstacles that were important to overcome, they were removed or character assassinated, and they had the Russian state backing them up.
Character assassination is very simple, for example, one can plant illegal adult films, where the people in the films are not adults, on someone’s computer in a folder they never look in, and then trigger the workplace’s warning system or otherwise attract the authorities’ attention towards them. Even without a conviction, the career is destroyed and the obstacle removed because the stigma is so great.
You, I, and everyone else trying to make a career all have others against us since we are competition, but here they got the boost they needed and could climb high up the tree.
It is quite reasonable that the same strategy has been used to elevate these fringe candidates because after all, one must get their candidate into a position where they can make a difference.
The whole discussion around H…as and I..el has been interesting to follow because people who definitely should have cared about their jobs have gone out hard with arguments that were completely sound in the echo chamber they moved in, but when it became a public discussion they learned where the line was – many have been fired from their jobs, many.
The employees at a restaurant who refused a j..k woman to go to the bathroom.
https://twitter.com/stopantisemites/status/1733661826758459644?s=46&t=BM8w9PQODMdgNiziQF6kFQ
And the first principal was fired, more are likely to follow, this one was Pennstate.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1733604196501393670?s=46&t=BM8w9PQODMdgNiziQF6kFQ
If anyone thought Elon had only made mistakes before because he didn’t understand better, he is now actively pushing the Gonzalo story…
There is simply no excuse anymore, he is trying in this sensitive period to actively influence so that the USA does not give support to Ukraine – the purpose is to cut off the money tap and that is exactly what Russia wants. The connection is why should we give money to Ukraine when they imprison our citizens.
https://twitter.com/fella6_9/status/1733723310620381510?s=46&t=BM8w9PQODMdgNiziQF6kFQ
RU has gotten Houthi to throw themselves into this wholeheartedly and the American destroyer has to date shot down 22 targets and a French frigate has also engaged targets from the Houthi rebels.
They will probably soon be subjected to an operation and take enormous damage but we are not there yet.
The influence is quite clear, right – they are preventing commercial traffic to the Suez Canal, that is the purpose.
https://twitter.com/ianellisjones/status/1733643706215858502?s=46&t=BM8w9PQODMdgNiziQF6kFQ
https://twitter.com/centcom/status/1733665600612749708?s=46&t=BM8w9PQODMdgNiziQF6kFQ
Orban will now influence opinion among the Republicans in the USA. When it comes to Hungary, it is time to take this seriously, there is no natural law that the rest of the EU should send lots of aid and appease them when Hungary tries to destroy the EU from within. Hungary is the EU’s most corrupt country and probably does not live up to many of the rules they promised to follow when they joined, so if you want to act, you can act Al Capone-style.
https://twitter.com/dougklain/status/1733878005137625174?s=46&t=ceRftawDE85Q_r6zXCUUlg
Here Iranians have been arrested, they were sent to attack J..s in Cyprus.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1733821871609561302?s=46&t=Nq3AuCvQEGb_UkNSfOJisw
Regarding the demonstrations in support of H..as attacking Christmas markets and Christmas decorations, it was apparently the J..s holiday first that was targeted in many places.
The risk has even been so elevated in some places in the USA that they either did not hold or were recommended not to hold the holiday.
https://twitter.com/craftsmanbob/status/1733653101666615610?s=46&t=BM8w9PQODMdgNiziQF6kFQ
It was fun when all these years of reasoning about the Russians’ subversive activities in various discussion forums with pros and cons turned out to be completely true because they are playing exactly the same playbook now. The conclusions drawn over the years from the information made available were completely right.
The follow-up question for me is how strong the points of contact are with the Cold War because at least Germany has had enormous problems during this war, there have been influential people at all levels everywhere who have slowed down or sabotaged and only now does Scholz seem to have gotten order in the meeting room. Thoughts go to the cleaners who had to mop up the blood.
Easy to understand why – when East and West met after the fall of the wall, East Germans were hired outright and Russia could get anyone anywhere without effort and have them as sleepers.
Are there Russian operators in the established parties, in the military or counterintelligence and not just the fringe parties and some opinion makers in other Western countries?
Yes, there probably are?
I have to say that Sweden has done pretty much everything right during this war, so if they exist here, they have not succeeded in significantly influencing decision-making.
I am beginning to wonder if the Russians have also realized that a simple way to the goal is to make a party they control popular and try to get their influence in a completely democratic way?
It has worked excellently in the USA unfortunately and it probably would not have gone better if they had some agents in the administration who, at risk of their careers, stuck their necks out, they remain dormant.
I was going to write that they went from using someone else’s platform for their opinion shaping to creating their own platform but during the Cold War there were openly communist parties loyal to the Soviet Union and a peace movement that was more or less controlled by the Soviet Union so no, not new.
In conclusion, we have an unflattering description of a drunk Putin who can barely stand straight and holds the champagne glass like a twelve-year-old and everyone around wants a shame cushion 😀
A statesmanlike champagne-alcoholic, simply.
https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1733904119637688351?s=46&t=ceRftawDE85Q_r6zXCUUlg
10:43 – Johan No.1
I found the illegal word for once and posted about it 😀💥
11:20 – MatsExtrude
Unfortunately, the Russians seem to be doing quite well with their subversive activities, let’s hope everyone wakes up so it can be stopped.
Whether Putin had had too much champagne or not, it was really funny to see the expressions of those around. A really happy and lively atmosphere there! 🙂
13:09 – Johan No.1
Not everything is black and white but Russia’s guilt is not insignificant in the migrant flows, trying to sort it out below.
I am quite convinced that Russia is pulling strings here and there – H…as attack and now with Venezuela feels like a commissioned job. But often it is enough to light the gasoline, right, October 7 and after that it is a self-playing piano.
Then the USA managed to destroy Syria which led to refugee flows and through their wars in Afghanistan and Syria laid a foundation for the following migration – hence not black and white.
Wagner is currently present in a large number of countries in Africa and is driving conflicts that directly lead to refugee flows; Italy accused Russia of migrant flows as recently as spring 2023.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italy-blames-surge-migration-russias-wagner-group-2023-03-13/
Russia entered Syria in 2015, well, already in 2016 the BBC was out accusing Russia of actively triggering refugee flows.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35706238
The refugee crisis in 2015 involved large flows from Turkey, and the refugees themselves reported how the military drove them to places to make their way to Europe; Turkey and Russia have close contact, as we now know.
Russia has paid millions of dollars in plane tickets for migrants to get to Mexico to begin their journey to the USA; I posted that link the other day.
The groups influenced by Russia in the EU were probably also partly the groups that pushed for welcoming immigration to the EU. In 2019, Russia positioned itself to drive migrants through Libya, and as for me, I have not yet found connections to Russia financing those refugee boats from NGOs in the EU that Italy has begun to question, but if one is willing to dig, that connection might be there?
However, it is indisputable that someone pays large sums to NGOs that purchase and then operate several ships in the Mediterranean that assist refugees in need.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2019-11-08/russia-positioning-itself-in-libya-to-unleash-migrant-crisis-into-europe
Here is a long article that is worth reading.
https://militairespectator.nl/artikelen/allegations-russian-weaponized-migration-against-eu
So yes, Russia absolutely has its hand deep in the cookie jar when it comes to using migration as a weapon; this has already been exposed by credible sources, so it is a bit unclear to me where your questioning actually comes from 😀
When Italy and others started to crack down on migrant ships and the flows began to die down, suddenly migrants came from Belarus towards Poland, to the Baltics, and to Finland—not to be confused with this round; that was earlier.
Then we must not forget that millions of Ukrainians have now fled to Europe, and that is 100% Russia’s doing.
13:31 – Johan No.1
Regarding Putin as a puppeteer, it is not Putin personally who commands the H..as on October 7 or called and asked Venezuela to intervene in Guyana.
Subversive activities in the West are a prioritized state function in Russia that several “offices” engage in. Since they can, they also engage in outright crime and stealing for their own gain in a delightful mess.
As with everything else, there have probably been policy decisions that these units then implement in practice through various influence operations. For example, sending out some Moldovans to draw stars on damn buildings. That was exactly what was done during the Cold War in West Germany, where neo-Nazism was Russian spies with a marker pen.
But yes, they sow the seed – a clear example is the Quran burnings that have had all sorts of consequences and especially not a NATO member. There, Russia was just responsible for the actual burning of the Quran and then some pushing on social media until it takes off. You can’t burn a Quran that no one hears about, it doesn’t work, so you also need the bot farms and social media accounts that can amplify it so that the impact is achieved – Russia has that, popularly called troll factories.
1. carry out an action identified as a core issue for a group.
2. blame another group that has historically opposed the first group.
3. ensure it gets full impact on social media.
4. sit back.
It is also established that the right-wing group in the EU Parliament can be financially linked to Russia, source unclear but an interesting article.
https://jam-news.net/european-parliament-and-russia/
The link below was interesting reading, source unclear
https://www.occrp.org/en/investigations/kremlin-linked-group-arranged-payments-to-european-politicians-to-support-russias-annexation-of-crimea
We really don’t have opposing views here at all, but for my part, I believe that the level of Russian subversive activity is greater than we want to believe and that one cannot overestimate what they are up to.
14:25 – Johan No.1
Don’t know who it could be, but the EU tried to vote it through but failed, I discovered today 😀
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/25/russia-labelled-as-sponsors-of-terrorism-how-did-europe-vote
So here’s the thing – if you can make them a “state sponsor of terrorism,” then cooperation with them becomes illegal, like with ISIS or Al Qaeda?
You are not allowed to have financial dealings and doing their bidding becomes illegal; if you can be linked via intermediaries to representatives of the state sponsor, you get caught.
Then some broader rules for surveillance open up, I believe?
10:41 – Johan No.1
Yesterday we went through what is happening in Ukraine and there is a lot that is positive, Ukraine has survived the initial blow and risen from the ashes to the extent that Russia cannot handle this.
The Russian losses since summer and autumn have been absolutely extreme and high in everything.
UA is also working deeply and an experienced helicopter pilot was murdered in Voronezh, which was later denied by the Russians so probably true 😀
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1733780605781864858?s=46&t=BM8w9PQODMdgNiziQF6kFQ
SOF is so widespread that the mech brigades have their own sniper groups but we probably already knew that when the home guard started setting up such earlier. UA snipers account for the second most RU losses so these field biologists are no small problem for the Russians.
https://twitter.com/militarylandnet/status/1733781984743182839?s=46&t=BM8w9PQODMdgNiziQF6kFQ
Then soon only BAE Systems in the UK will be able to produce 1.5 million shells per year in large calibers. Just BAE… and just large calibers…
The ammunition shortage was apparently another Russian influence operation.
https://twitter.com/cameron19460429/status/1733670684700594436?s=46&t=BM8w9PQODMdgNiziQF6kFQ
A bit ambiguous but it is possible that the Russians are planning offensive operations on the northern front.
https://twitter.com/blackrussiantv/status/1733513312887873637?s=46&t=sh9VAJ95j9SPJkhpo3MTAg
The number of knocked-out barbarians continues to be sky-high above average even in December and recently the Russian counterattacks from VDV have been pulverized at the Dnieper.
Posts about RU subversive activities always get a bit darker because it is not Ukraine that is beating them but a West that continues to act submissively.
What RU is now trying increasingly is to win through its subversive activities, a cheat-win simply. So far the West has not taken the measures it should and the blanket of disinformation is spreading more and more.
It costs Russia nothing to create chaos on the streets in the West.
It costs Russia almost nothing to create civil wars in Africa and conflicts between groups in different countries, they probably profit from their operations in Africa.
A low-budget solution simply but it is only possible as long as the West chooses not to act, right? The day Russia is a “state sponsor of terrorism” it will get quiet very fast.
But unfortunately there are a couple of levels of trouble more.
Russia has been allowed to manipulate elections in the West and created the refugee crisis, the electricity crisis and most recently through various targeted efforts against different groups succeeded in creating tensions between different religions and nationalities, one example is the Quran burnings, another that they drew stars on d…n stores.
This causes fringe parties to thrive, first out were now Slovakia and the Netherlands but in Germany it does not look good either. These countries will naturally slow down all attempts in their countries and the EU to make Russia a “state sponsor of terrorism” but that does not prevent other countries from doing so on their own.
Something that has consistently been the fringe groups’ first point on the list in the past year when they have gained power is to stop supporting Ukraine so I hardly think we need to have the discussion about whether they are doing Putin’s bidding or not.
It is a bit simplified to say that during the Cold War some in the West supported the Soviet Union ideologically and now it is only money. The Russians are cunning animals and also give their contacts rock star status. They invite them to Russia to official events where they are treated with great respect and the whole military parade and such is fun because they have never been allowed to come to the Nobel party.
They live in luxury hotels in Dubai with as many escorts as they can talk to and eat and drink the most expensive available – such things are surely also highly appreciated by many, they are now something after all the years in anonymity.
Sure money is fun but the rock star status attracts that too and then they become celebrities in the West from having been a nobody, if you get a quarter of the votes in an election you are suddenly more than nothing.
During the Cold War it was rumored that RU infiltrated in rings of 3-4 spies who started at one level and worked their way up where they worked and then used their influence to help each other further up in steps. The one who got highest pulled the others up with them.
“The long march through the institutions” is well known but these were direct spies.
If there were insurmountable obstacles that were important to overcome they were removed or character assassinated and they had the Russian state behind them as help.
Character assassination is very simple, for example you can put illegal adult films, where the people in the films are not adults, on someone’s computer in a folder they never look in and then trigger the workplace warning system or otherwise get the authorities’ attention directed at them. Even without a conviction the career is destroyed and the obstacle removed because the stigma is so great.
You, me and everyone else trying to make a career have everyone else against us since we are competition but here you got the boost you needed and could get high up in the tree.
It is quite reasonable that the same strategy has been used to lift these fringe candidates because after all you have to get your candidate in a position where they can make a difference.
The whole discussion around H…as and I..el has been interesting to follow because people who surely should have cared about their jobs have gone out hard with arguments that were completely sound in the echo chamber they moved in but when it became a public discussion they had to learn where the line was – many have been fired from their jobs, many.
The employees at a restaurant who refused a j..k woman to go to the bathroom.
https://twitter.com/stopantisemites/status/1733661826758459644?s=46&t=BM8w9PQODMdgNiziQF6kFQ
And the first principal got fired, more will follow, this was Pennstate.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1733604196501393670?s=46&t=BM8w9PQODMdgNiziQF6kFQ
If anyone thought Elon only made mistakes earlier because he didn’t understand better, he is now actively pushing the Gonzalo story…
There is simply no excuse anymore, he is trying in this sensitive period to actively influence so the USA does not give support to Ukraine – the purpose is to cut off the money tap and that is exactly what Russia wants. The connection is why should we give money to Ukraine when they imprison our citizens.
https://twitter.com/fella6_9/status/1733723310620381510?s=46&t=BM8w9PQODMdgNiziQF6kFQ
RU has gotten Houthi to throw themselves into this wholeheartedly and the American destroyer has to date shot down 22 targets and a French frigate has also fought targets from the Houthi rebels.
They will probably soon be subjected to an operation and take enormous damage but we are not there yet.
The influence is clear, right – they are preventing commercial traffic to the Suez Canal, that is the purpose.
https://twitter.com/ianellisjones/status/1733643706215858502?s=46&t=BM8w9PQODMdgNiziQF6kFQ
https://twitter.com/centcom/status/1733665600612749708?s=46&t=BM8w9PQODMdgNiziQF6kFQ
Orban will now influence opinion among Republicans in the USA. When it comes to Hungary, it is time to take this seriously; there is no natural law that the rest of the EU should send lots of aid and appease them when Hungary tries to dismantle the EU from within. Hungary is the EU’s most corrupt country and probably does not live up to many of the rules they promised to follow when they joined, so if one wants to act, one can act Al Capone-style.
https://twitter.com/dougklain/status/1733878005137625174?s=46&t=ceRftawDE85Q_r6zXCUUlg
Here Iranians have been arrested; they were sent to attack J..s in Cyprus.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1733821871609561302?s=46&t=Nq3AuCvQEGb_UkNSfOJisw
Regarding the demonstrations in support of H..s targeting Christmas markets and Christmas decorations, it apparently was the J..s holiday first that was targeted in many places.
There has even been such an increased risk in some places in the USA that they either did not hold or were advised not to hold the holiday.
https://twitter.com/craftsmanbob/status/1733653101666615610?s=46&t=BM8w9PQODMdgNiziQF6kFQ
It was funny when all these years of reasoning about the Russians’ subversive activities in various discussion forums with pros and cons turned out to be completely true because they are playing exactly the same playbook now. The conclusions drawn over the years based on the information made available were entirely correct.
The follow-up question for me is how strong the parallels are with the Cold War, because at least Germany has had enormous problems during this war; there have been influential people at all levels everywhere who have slowed down or sabotaged, and only now does Scholz seem to have gotten things in order in the meeting room. Thoughts go to the cleaners who had to mop up the blood.
Easy to understand why – when East and West met after the fall of the Wall, East Germans were hired outright, and Russia could get anyone anywhere effortlessly and have them as sleepers.
Are there Russian operators in the established parties, in the military or counterintelligence, and not just the fringe parties and some opinion makers in other Western countries?
Yes, there probably are, right?
I have to say that Sweden has done almost everything right during this war, so if they are here with us, they have not succeeded in significantly influencing decision-making.
I’m starting to wonder if the Russians have also realized that an easy way to the goal is to make a party they control popular and try to gain their influence through completely democratic means?
It has unfortunately worked excellently in the USA, and it probably wouldn’t have gone better if they had some agents in the administration who, at the risk of their careers, had to stick their necks out; they remain dormant.
I was going to write that they went from using someone else’s platform for their opinion shaping to creating their own platform, but during the Cold War there were openly communist parties loyal to the Soviet Union and a peace movement that was more or less controlled by the Soviet Union, so no, not new.
To conclude, we have an unflattering description of a drunk Putin who can barely stand straight and holds the champagne glass like a twelve-year-old, and everyone around wants a cushion to hide behind 😀
A statesmanlike champagne-alcoholic, simply put.
https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1733904119637688351?s=46&t=ceRftawDE85Q_r6zXCUUlg