2023-12-12

12:15 – Johan No.1

Now WAPO is out again with a doomsday article that the West has nothing left to send 🤬
https://twitter.com/rshereme/status/1734252665599574407?s=46&t=92aweUnA5jUi1sqFCWwzeg

MTG wants peace on Russian terms to save the children.
https://twitter.com/jayinkyiv/status/1734323545537175918?s=46&t=92aweUnA5jUi1sqFCWwzeg

Perpetua feels like us in the thread that it is a high-level lie that the West has run out of weapons to send and the thread has well debunked this several times.
https://twitter.com/andrewperpetua/status/1734363034846466071?s=46&t=92aweUnA5jUi1sqFCWwzeg

At the same time, Zelensky in his speech in the USA announces that 2024 will tear down the Berlin Wall 2.0 – does that sound like a man starting to give up?
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1734321893614686702?s=46&t=92aweUnA5jUi1sqFCWwzeg

Now Meiden 3 has reached full storm strength and we are supposed to be afraid of a Ukrainian crushing defeat and that the West has completely run out of weapons to send now. Just like with The Great Mobilization, it hangs like a dark veil over us and many worry even though time passes and there is never any mobilization despite two attempts on paper with double stamps.

I’m stealing the quote below from Cesar in yesterday’s thread because it was very sharply analyzed.
”There must be panic among the Russians when their Iskanders are shot down 90-100%, likewise with their nuclear-capable cruise missiles having 90% shoot-down rates, while Ukraine has no more than a handful of Patriot/SampT, at the same time as a few Storm Shadows cause trouble in Crimea so they have to leave Sevastopol with their Black Sea Fleet, the jewel from Catherine the Great, how will Russia manage to protect Königsberg, Peter and Moscow if they attack the Baltics and Gotland?”

The Russians are blowing a lot of hot air right now through Meiden 3 but after all, they also have analysts who evaluate how they have coped against Western weapons and how a war with the West would go.
They haven’t managed to stop a single Storm Shadow (or maybe one?), but if 90% of their own missiles are shot down, then some red warning lights should be going off even in Russia, right?

This is not something you can build away in a few years, the whole technology is substandard both in missiles and in air defense – it has very little to do with personnel training.

The war in Ukraine is going terribly and they have lost 15,000 hard vehicles since the start of the war. What they had in stock was indeed quite a lot but what remains now is in terrible condition, and above all it is much less than what exists in the West in all categories.

Moreover, the former Russian colony Ukraine has succeeded in something they have never managed and never will – fully digitized command and control integrated at all levels. Russia naturally understands that the entire West can manage this as well as Ukraine, or better.

They themselves started this war with First World War orders on printed paper and the slightest setback crashed everything totally because no one commanded anything and everyone had to follow written orders even if there were mines and ambushes on the way.

The digital battlefield versus orders printed on paper that no one follows – Tannenberg meets 2023.

What Russia has really done here was a sharp mobilization check and weapon tests and everything got a weak grade – I think Russia’s conclusion from this war will be that they absolutely cannot go to war with the West.

The weaknesses simply cannot be built away because they are structural and a consequence of the basic philosophy of how the country Russia is governed. To be able to fight like the West you have to become like the West and then you probably won’t want to fight anymore but choose to live a good life.

I think China has come to a different conclusion, they do have a slightly more modern defense force but are also top-controlled. If one may guess, China does not feel very eager for a global conflict where they are a fighting party. China also understands that the USA has shown only one card of the entire UNO deck and Russia lost immediately.

Since China’s only possible war with the West could be in the South China Sea, the thread earlier made a review of the West’s navies and China will not get far if they try. If they want to go by land it’s India or Russia that counts as playing on the same team.

Russia’s subversive activities are excellent but right now the West actually needs to calm down – Russia has understood that they are lost here and the only thing they are trying to trick the West into is some kind of negotiated peace so Putin and the Siloviki can survive personally, nothing else.

There will be no frozen fronts, there will be no negotiated peace – there will be a Russian crushing defeat and major changes in the country Russia from this epic mistake. We have probably already called it a geopolitical atomic bomb in the thread back in spring 2022.

Interesting bits of information –
Russia is now down to 380 tanks at the Dnieper according to one of the sources. It would be 70,000 barbarians too but I’m quite sure they count brigades as full strength so probably wrong.
The number of tanks is interesting because it was 500 a month or two ago.

I have never understood that the EU already tried to vote Russia as a “state sponsor of terrorism” and it didn’t pass – interesting.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/25/russia-labelled-as-sponsors-of-terrorism-how-did-europe-vote

I have been a bit absent from Qanon apparently because new posts appeared in June 2022. I don’t like this because there is quite a big risk they will push this ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jun/27/qanon-head-posts-message-board-8kun

Elon has also recently started hinting about Qanon, “just in time for the election”.
https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-qanon-2024-election/

Then Qanon content starts trending on Twitter.
https://www.adl.org/resources/blog/qanon-resurgent-twitter

For those a bit conspiratorial, one might suspect there is a plan behind it all.

The Houthi rebels may have taken out a Norwegian-flagged cargo ship in the Red Sea.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1734355750510539000?s=46&t=92aweUnA5jUi1sqFCWwzeg

The Snow Leopards, what an operation.
https://twitter.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1733886701288742928?s=46&t=Nq3AuCvQEGb_UkNSfOJisw

There are more wars now than in 30 years
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1734166130686665113?s=46&t=fxffcua3UeZkmWsGvT-FAQ

Macron wants to support more.
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1733859556835340520?s=46&t=ceRftawDE85Q_r6zXCUUlg

Don’t know if I already mentioned this but possibly RU is preparing offensive operations on the northern front and you remember the discussion about the rivers up there, right, so no risk they will succeed.
https://twitter.com/blackrussiantv/status/1733513312887873637?s=46&t=sh9VAJ95j9SPJkhpo3MTAg

Ending with this from Erik14, do you remember the discussion last year when HIMARS came about the Stuka effect and sniper effect. Russian in a trench sees the grenade in the neighboring trench and then waits for his turn, same with the sniper.
These drones are almost even better, tens of thousands and probably full panic as soon as you hear the buzzing – brilliant simply and the Stuka effect is achieved.
The stress level on Russian soldiers at the fronts must be extremely high, they risk burnout in their working life.
https://x.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1733977437707399471?s=20

15:03 – MatsExtrude

Thanks! 👍

Not impossible that the drone buzzing will be PTSD-triggering for many soldiers from both sides, several years after the war.