13:14 – Johan No.1
When I for once bring production figures and cite sources from the USA and UK that agree with me, I got the label “out of touch with reality,” I have been quite satisfied that in recent weeks information has started to come out that RU does not have unlimited resources and that they are poor in night combat 😀
I have completely given up on the artillery because it is very heavily decimated and that was where UA took 70% of its losses.
I personally thought the post was directly fact-packed and spoke for itself – 23 Terminators manufactured is not impressive.
Now I don’t have the link but it was probably the British defense something that brought up night combat capability and if you have been in the forest with or without an image intensifier you know what a wunderwaffe it is, right, you see zero stumbling over everything and the opponent sees you as in daylight and can choose between knife or poison.
It is clear that many measure success in conquered meters, which is a poor metric, but it is not a natural law that Ukraine is not advancing. This is because the West has sent only a fraction of everything that is currently in the warehouses. The easiest example is probably the Abrams, where UA has received 30 out of 4000 available, and the vehicle is built to kill Russians.
I went through what is in the warehouses a few weeks ago to show that as well.
As I said, we’ll have to wait a few months and then see who has listened to the right sources.
13:54 – MatsExtrude
👍
I basically agree that Ukraine actually has all the advantages, BUT with one exception.
Unlike the Russians, Ukraine does not sacrifice its soldiers unnecessarily.
The Russian waves of meat unfortunately lead to them slowly achieving successes and gaining ground. The question is when they realize that it is unsustainable; unfortunately, it seems like it could take a long time, and Ukraine must hold out until then.
I do not doubt that Ukraine will continue to fight. I am rather afraid that the West will tire of providing support, but right now it looks good (except for the USA, of course) as several countries have now announced new packages and more money.
14:06 – Johan No.1
The likelihood that a Russian soldier will get fed up with the war before a Ukrainian soldier should be very high; at the Dnieper, Russian units after units have refused offensive operations but accept to stay on defense.
If all UA brigades at Bakhmut had refused offensive operations, the West would have portrayed it as the war being hopelessly lost and death around the corner.
But yes, I agree that something that still surprises is how much crap a Russian soldier can take before he’s had enough.
Then, a stickler for order must actually remind about the “vodka-run,” there was a limit even for Russian soldiers. The VDV intended to participate but withdrew at the last moment, and the coup leaders were all competent Russian officers.
14:07 – Johan No.1
Not sacrificing soldiers unnecessarily I also see as an advantage, but maybe my glass is always half full.
The reverse Darwinism in the Russian army versus UA maintaining capability is over time a big plus, HMS probably addresses that further up.
14:29 – MatsExtrude
Actually, it’s probably not the soldiers themselves who are willing to voluntarily go to their deaths. They are probably mostly forced, and before they get so far as to have had enough and can consider protesting, they have already become KIA or WIA.
But as you write, there are probably some who actually have a limit. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem to spread.
14:39 – MatsExtrude
Yes, in the long run it is absolutely an advantage not to sacrifice soldiers unnecessarily. I probably expressed myself a bit unclearly.
I mean that in the short term it gives the Russians an advantage; it is incredibly difficult to defend against such an enemy, and it is not surprising that Russia achieves some smaller successes.
It’s just that Ukraine (and of course the West) must hold out until the Russians lose their stamina and then be ready to strike back.
As long as the West supports, Russia has no chance (unless China steps in and helps them fully). It is mostly a question of how long this will have to go on and how much misery the Ukrainian population will have to endure.
14:45 – Johan No.1
Interesting – 1500×365 is 547,500 per year.
In 2022, they got in 450,000 after a 300,000 large mobilization or something similar?
Previously it was 20,000 per month volunteering, then 30,000, and now 45,000 per month.
Either he’s pulling everything out of thin air or the forced measures to find those mobilizable are very effective.
I find it extremely hard to believe that interest in dying in Ukraine is rising as much as his numbers suggest.
All opinion polls suggest the opposite, and when the big mobilization was carried out, everyone who could fled the country.
14:54 – Johan No.1
Exactly, doing like the West and missing two low points is very strange. Now it seems we have a third low point if Putin does not mobilize, and then the West should excel at missing that one too, of course.
14:56 – Johan No.1
Good point, and the reverse Darwinism that everyone who has seen combat at the front is dead and the new ones who come in completely newly formed units learn the hard way and die – that is probably the basic idea behind the whole setup, I think, to not have too many witnesses left who can spread defeatism in the Russian ranks.
15:08 – MatsExtrude
I imagine that Ukraine will be much better equipped when it’s time next time.
They have hardly used up the armor they have received (even if it doesn’t seem to have been replenished much with newer tanks and tank destroyers). F-16s are on the way. GLSDB will probably show up eventually.
If they just get resupplied with artillery shells and GMLRS (I guess the low artillery losses unfortunately may be due to them starting to run low later) and preferably more Storm Shadows or Taurus, I think they are still well positioned for the next offensive.
16:15 – Johan No.1
Wagner used exactly the same strategy, and in the end it became a “vodka-run,” VDV was supposed to participate but backed out.
Several army brigades have refused war in the last six months, and at the Dnieper it is spreading – the Russian army is not immune to setbacks.
The Russians are not completely clueless, so they have reinvented barrier battalions which prevent larger movements.
Yep, in the Russian army it’s full cynicism that applies. There are endless examples of how commanders try to save their own skins by sacrificing units in completely pointless attacks with guaranteed death.
16:47 – Johan No.1
Lars H, that is also the same guy who predicted 3500 tanks total at the start of the war, which the whole world then made into a truth, even the intelligence services it seemed.
So he has been wrong before…
I have gone through what he posted and he does not seem to be pro-Russian, so we can rule that out.
However, his satellite images and criteria are a bit tricky, and probably a lot of those remaining have been used as spare parts storage or are waiting for guidance systems or something else.
09:08 – Johan No.1
Have it as a point for today’s thread but I can’t find verbatim how Putin mentioned the 360,000 losses.
I’m beginning to suspect he didn’t say it but that others have analyzed it together, but losses are a number we constantly argue about, so if he has said something definitive it would be a good puzzle piece.
09:35 – Johan No.1
Alright, thanks, then we’ll continue to argue about the losses for another year 😀
12:41 – Johan No.1
Now the Germans and the British are starting to think along the same lines as the thread about RU not having unlimited resources and that things are simply starting to look bad for the Russian command.
According to earlier from someone, we should keep an eye on RU’s strategic reserves, and so far it is the 104th AAD and 25th CAA, both understrength, poorly equipped, and took a beating immediately. We have followed reports from the Dnepr where brigade after brigade of the VDV’s new flagship 104th was heavily decimated.
Russia has not mobilized but apparently entire armies are being re-equipped right now according to their own reliable sources.
This feels a bit like the 3rd AC, which was supposed to change how wars were fought in the world but consisted of older-old Russians who fled Kharkiv at the first counterattack and then lost battle after battle in a cloud of humiliation and today are forgotten by world history except by their closest mourners and hospitals that cannot get rid of all the severely wounded older-old men.
There were probably 2-3 more CAAs under formation and some division, I don’t keep track of that anymore and it’s hard to find, but the British had a list.
This is what they managed to put together since Shoigu earlier promised 20 divisions but this is what it became instead.
Since one CAA and one VDV division were lost in a month or two, the remaining strategic reserves won’t last much longer, I think?
– At the Dnepr, the Russians are seriously worried. They are trying to defeat 300 marines which fails every day while the entire marine corps, 5th Tank brigade, a couple of home guard brigades and a forest of SOF stand on the other shore doing squats – Ukraine has a huge hit waiting for the right moment.
– RU is not worried at the southern front right now, they are making marginal progress which suggests that UA has weakened there more than we know, probably to reinforce Avdiivka.
– At Avdiivka, RU is completely unable to advance and I think it is worse for RU than we understand – they have pushed DPR units in the area hard which means that the defense of the darkest Donbass is now decimated. That UA is taking ground at Horlivka is a bit revealing since it is under the rebels’ area of responsibility.
– At Bakhmut, there is an absolute forest of RU brigades but they are not advancing, we will see if the defense systems at Kliischivka fall or not – a good litmus test.
– In northern Luhansk where RU has weakened too much, UA is advancing in some places.
– Guess what it looks like at the northern front but there is still a Russian-killing ban there, damn the West 🤬
I have tried to think a bit about all the information we get that RU can increase their material production and completely outrun the West – they will thus build themselves an advantage in a few years that the West cannot meet (and then these debaters ignore everything that exists in the West’s warehouses today). If we then look at the total production figures of various weapon systems, I thought maybe we get a clue?
T90 – under 2021 they managed to produce 80. It says that a total of 4000 have been produced but looking at production during “five-year plans” I find it hard to add up. Over 1000 have been exported and there should be 600-700 in units. It could be that they exported a large number?
They have managed to build 23 BMP Terminators.
BTR-90 they seem to have built 12 of.
They seem to have built 2000 Tigr armored vehicles – compare here with the USA having built 27,000 of their MRAP or whatever it’s called that is probably equivalent?
Only the Germans are about to start mass-producing Lynx and Fuchs for Ukraine, the first 10 ready this year and then increasing.
I actually get the feeling that the Russians’ production figures for 2024 that Western media throw around are also completely pulled out of thin air if you look at what they have produced so far of the latest in armor.
DavidD has shown empty production lines or that they have modified T62s instead of new production.
Then we have the tale that a T62 is also deadly but it is and remains a poor excuse if you like Russia. You can also claim that the BTR-50 is deadly like a rattlesnake but guess how long they last in close combat with a 2023 model Lynx…
Because this is what we are heading towards, on the battlefield in Ukraine Russia will deploy what they have left against increasingly modern Ukrainian brigades with tough vehicles from the West.
Yes, there are minefields and drones but you don’t win wars with that, today we know that Ukraine’s drones are EV resistant while their own EV is now very effective against the Russians – they have told us that.
How long do you think the Russians will need to train on China’s MBT and IFV before they master them?
A long time is my guess, probably we won’t see them on the battlefield throughout 2024 😀
Because that is the only option if they want to keep pace with Ukraine here, 23 Terminators won’t get you far.
Now it is time for the West to deliver what Ukraine requests and needs so that the Russian rolling circus can be defeated fundamentally during 2024, it’s two years too late but it is what it is and the world is not fair.
Numerically Ukraine is stronger than RU inside Ukraine and if you listened to Syrskyi (or whatever his name is) he said they might have to start taking from reserves soon regarding Avdiivka, reserves are thus the keyword, right?
Ukraine is setting up 6 new brigades today in addition to existing units and they have continuous rotations and fill existing units with new mobilized.
3000 tough vehicles from Bulgaria Soviet model would probably be enough to fully mechanize the entire home guard.
Then if the West starts sending what is requested, the army and NG fight as mechanized units with Western materiel – with full NIGHT FIGHTING CAPABILITY.
The fact is that the entire army and NG can be considered mechanized today but it is a mixed mess and a hodgepodge of everything that has been sent.
UA tank losses versus RU losses in tanks according to Oryx are 700 versus 2500 so a bit more than 1:5 and if we extrapolate that to RU losses, UA has then lost a few thousand in total of the 1500 they had at the start of the war.
They have captured 550 and received 600 delivered so they have more than at the start of the war, right, and above all better?
Then all of Europe has opened their workshops and is continuously repairing materiel. We can guess that the Russians’ workshops are like everything else – working terribly.
Two months ago there were supposed to be 2500 RU tanks and at the Dnepr they had 500, now there are 380 left at the Dnepr.
Guess if there are fewer at Avdiivka than before of those that were there 😀
And then it says 30% with technical faults in depots waiting for repairs that never happen?
According to earlier guesses, I think UA is on par with RU when it comes to tanks today and above all they have better tanks.
IFV that RU should have 4500 of in Ukraine we also got to know.
Western deliveries of IFV, AFV, APC, and Ptgb are 7500 units.
-By the way, someone thought that 15,000 – 20,000 armored vehicles was completely unreasonable reasoning by me, but UA has actually received 8000 armored vehicles to date, so I wasn’t completely crazy 😀
Considering that the Russians also include MTLB and BT-50, we can still consider that UA has the advantage in fragmentation protection as well. Provided that RU hasn’t put a ZSU23-2 on them, because then they are rattlesnake deadly 💥
These are the numbers despite all the scare propaganda we keep getting.
Ukraine’s defense force today is 800,000 with reserves of 900,000.
According to everything we always get, Russian units in Ukraine are around 400,000, but I don’t think the rebels, FSB, Rosgvardia, navy, air force, administration, and so on are included in that, and that they are somewhat under a million total, +800,000 maybe?
But it is the army Ukraine must defeat to win because the rest of the units will not want to die in Ukraine and none of them want to be last over the border when Ukraine breaks through.
Ammunition – Russia can produce 2 million artillery shells in a few years.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-ramps-up-artillery-production-still-falling-short-western-official-says-2023-09-09/
Only BAE Systems will be able to produce 1 million artillery shells annually in a year or so, I posted the article the other day.
So it absolutely looks terrible for the Russians.
NK is exhausted now, they got maybe a million shells where most didn’t work. Rocket Man is not stupid, he gave the dregs to Russia.
China can deliver a lot but they have to balance their relationship with the West and above all maybe they don’t want to give Russia too much in case they end up in a future conflict with them?
Now we are waiting for UA retaliation for two missile attacks so we’ll see what they manage – wild guess it will be violent and spectacular.
If anyone thought Elon just has bad luck but actually has good intentions when he writes, he is now pushing a peace where UA gives up land very harshly. He seems to be pushing all Kremlin talking points right now.
For me, it is already decided where he stands on this.
https://twitter.com/glasnostgone/status/1734714262050779307?s=46&t=3CtGbgC9sfNy0VmP_Jk2sA
Now finally several sources have started to come out saying RU has poor night combat capability and that UA has the advantage in night combat capability. I have been pushing this for a long time where I write that the Russians are starting to run out of batteries for flashlights or have poor lighting when Ukraine runs around with the latest image intensifier in bakelite. It has been obvious because UA has conducted several spectacular offensive operations enabled by night combat.
This IS a wunderwaffe and I feel marginally more confident in the thread now that it is being raised by sources we trust so I can avoid all the attacks.
Sweden’s only living legend MXT reasoned in his shining wisdom about whether drone buzzing could trigger acute PTSD (or however it’s spelled…) among Russian soldiers and yes, they seem more than reasonably traumatized by buzzing sounds.
https://x.com/UKikaski/status/1734537070964535671?s=20
It could probably be violent summers in Russia ahead when a flying hornet triggers mass psychosis and everyone starts throwing grenades around.
It really feels good that the stun, or sniper – effect has finally arrived and that it affects every Russian soldier in Ukraine more or less. Sleeping with both eyes open every night works wonders for combat value. We talked a lot about it when HIMARS came in 2022 but these drones are really brilliant.
Within three months we will probably see if the optimists or the pessimists in the thread have listened to the right sources. The key is to find the sources closest to the truth and we all think we are world champions at that. Personally, I think Accentmannen, David D, and a few others have often been right and are good in their assumptions. Accentmannen pointed out today the obvious – it WAS 40,000 at Avdiivka and today there are 27,000 left. Other sources continue with the same number despite huge losses.
The other truth we optimists refuse to believe is that it is 65,000 – 100,000 at Dnepr and I think I have figured out that those who push that line count the brigades as full strength even though over a few months we have been able to see that half of the units at the Dnepr front are down to under 1000 and one can suspect that all were understrength from the start.
We know that it has gone from 100,000 at the northern front to well under 100,000, a few dozen brigades are gone and the 25th CAA was added. Then we must not forget that RU has run a few dozen brigades to the ground up in northern Luhansk as well and that the entire VDV is gone.
The constant accusation is that we always exaggerate Ukraine’s capability and exaggerate the Russians’ inability but as badly as this war is going for the world’s second army, the question is whether we really do?
We KNOW that the Russians got orders on paper and we KNOW that Ukraine has a fully integrated digital command system – just that gives Ukraine an advantage that is almost incomprehensible –
-as soon as UA has taken a defense system, the battalion command directs them to a defense that beats the task force’s counterattack which they have seen coming long before they reach the combat area. They also decimate it so heavily that they often don’t even get within shooting range before they are knocked out.
-The Russians enter the attack objective and either sit down and cry or try to hide in basements and are completely caught off guard by UA counterattacks and are thrown out feet first – every time
Then we have total superiority in night combat and everyone who has tried both knows what a huge advantage you have then – it is a wunderwaffe.
Yes, the Russians try to push in as many as Ukraine kills to maintain an equilibrium but you don’t win wars with that.
Now mechanized warfare and air superiority will roll out over the potato fields and over frozen Russian in a hole and then Putin and the siloviki will have to seek asylum in China.