11:02 – Johan No.1
Just want to say that today is the trip back to Mariestad, grill chips and ranch dip, and that I will return sometime after New Year full of (chips) energy.
For me it is crystal clear that Ukraine is heading for a smashing victory but the Russian Meiden 3 constantly spreads negative thoughts that one has to wrestle with. Winter offensive but not as the pro-Russians think.
We discussed this summer that Putin’s only remaining card was to try to project strength and get the West to get tired which Meiden 3 and the diversionary maneuvers on October 7 and Houthi are an attempt to do – Putin is trying to talk his way out of this mess he has gotten himself into, he is desperately looking for an emergency exit.
It is impossible to know what is true or not with Russia, but they DO have ambitions beyond Ukraine, that is indisputable.
However, I guess that the “leaked plans” to take half of Ukraine and accept losses of 100,000 per year are absolutely hot air.
If the West can just pull itself together and stop running around crying in circles so that Ukraine gets everything they point to, then this war will end quite promptly, you might remember the rants about the “war-deciding weapons package”?
As Cesar asked in the post above – why is Morocco allowed to buy hundreds of Bradleys and Abrams cheaply and not Ukraine?
Putin must feel a sinking feeling in his stomach when he gets the news, he must understand that it is over. Putin does not listen to what the West says, he watches what we do, and so far there is quite a big difference between “we support Ukraine to a win” and what has actually been sent, right?
Projecting strength has totally failed and Russia is at a low point. Ukraine has in fact not exhausted its offensive reserves but they are very worried that they will not receive more material support, so they are rationing offensive weapons and that is very unfortunate.
I read a bit about Finland and it was the same thing, Russia lost hundreds of thousands of soldiers but managed to force Finland to peace in front of a passive West and then Finland had to cede a few nonexistent pieces of land.
The reason for ceding very little land was simply so that the dictatorship could proclaim it as a big win and avoid internal criticism despite it being an epic failure. I guess no one in Russia was aware that hundreds of thousands died for some mosquito-infested marshes in the middle of nowhere.
Sound familiar?
Putin desperately needs a small piece of land in a brokered peace, then he can save his own and his buddies’ skins and then they can continue on the path they have taken and enrich themselves as the criminal clan they are.
As with everything else in this war, Ukraine has exceeded everyone’s expectations, A++, while the West and especially the USA constantly disappoint everyone. The entire post-WW2 world order is at stake here and the USA has not exactly shown great willingness to uphold it. When the criminal clan realizes that the police have left a walkover in the area, everyone knows what happens. The fact is that there are more wars in the world now than in 30 years.
The thread is highly interesting as a lot of knowledge is shared, I think I said once that the last time it was this fun was with the Skalmans thread about submarine violations. A nice side effect is that much of what we assumed in that thread back then has now been confirmed.
For a while, there was a group who saw it as their task to sabotage as much as they could here, but when they got tired and on their own left the others in peace, the tone in the thread has always been good, which is probably quite unique in the context of discussion forums and it works until the word domestic politics is written.
One hopes that journalists and other opinion makers read the information in the thread and take to heart what is sensible and that those who have been wrong reconsider. The entire West is sitting and analyzing on various amounts of data and making qualified assessments. It still surprises me how badly calibrated the West was at the start of the war and it does not surprise me at all that there are many competent OSINT analysts out there who have made infinitely better assessments than highly paid experts with lots of TV time who are stuck in old truths.
You can either wait for a finished analysis with a conclusion served and take it as a truth or you can, in today’s enormous flow of information, pick up relevant information and make your own analysis of the situation. I think the thread is good at the latter and that is probably also why the thread has been more right than established analysts more than once in this war.
The reason for my great insomnia is the Russian losses but until proven otherwise my take is 1:2 on the reported numbers. I believe the fronts are simply too long and too much material has been consumed so it must be in that range.
Then WE SHOULD ridicule Russia, praise Ukraine and forever believe that the big victory is just around the corner – this is popularly called “pep talk” and if you are a parent you know what it takes. I wonder how long my daughter’s basketball team would have lasted if everyone before each game had told them they would lose the first period and might as well give up. It is kind of part of supporting and when they have lost 100-10 anyway, you highlight that crazy three-pointer that was insanely beautiful and go buy pizza for all the crying kids 😀
Yes, the spring offensive not reaching Azov was quite sad but now Ukraine is running round two themselves and then we have to cheer them on for that too. Or, I am quite disappointed about that and believe that the West has been guilty of negligence by missing two low points but the world is not fair.
I had some letters to the editor in progress but didn’t finish, they are always picky with words and then performance anxiety kicks in, and it has been a hectic November and December when I had to step in as acting manager. It is sad when you have to work at work simply and even sadder when you have to do more work for the same money. Yes, this war must not be forgotten – just like the fire watch in the military who always fell asleep and the tent was completely chilled in the middle of the freezing winter, this war must not be forgotten because that is what Putin wants.
Now it is a bit early but the USA will probably pass the support package and then countries in Europe will start arriving with more shopping lists for Ukraine that we have reason to be happy about. The big tank coalition actually came the first week of January and on January 6 the Russians started their winter offensive. Those of you who were here remember that someone in the thread was really worried before Christmas 2022 and was doing flips on the children’s trampoline in freezing January.
So here in the Christmas season we absolutely must not forget Ukraine, here you have Mariupol in full Christmas decoration before the war, a city of 500,000 prosperous inhabitants that today is 90% leveled to the ground and if you ask me a couple hundred thousand have died or been sent to Russia. Very beautiful city with snow and Christmas decorations at least.
https://twitter.com/biz_ukraine_mag/status/1736365602678214905?s=46&t=1HELEPWZ5GJUncSOdL2BMg
Ukraine is taking the full hit for the free West right now, the world is not fair and they themselves do not demand that we should die for them but they need all the help they can get – material, ammunition, moral support and good news. Two years is an eternity and many feel unfairly treated and think they have had to carry too heavy a burden but as long as they have hope for a better future they will never give up, they know what awaits on the other side of a capitulation and it is worse than war.
Now I am completely breaking protocol but since I am disappearing I want to wish everyone in the thread a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year, the second time we wish each other for Christmas and hopefully the last in this war, and of course to the large group of Portuguese in the thread – Adios.
12:26 – MatsExtrude
Thanks for today’s essay, wonderfully positive as usual!
It wouldn’t be wrong to demilitarize Transnistria and in the process get access to the ammunition, unfortunately I suspect that Moldova does not feel ready for that.
We have to keep our fingers crossed that Ukraine can get more of its own arms industry going instead. It’s going a bit too slowly for everyone else to scale up so that’s probably the fastest way to speed up production.
Slava Ukraini!
12:51 – MatsExtrude
Nice to see that you will get to relieve the withdrawal symptoms from real beer and snacks (and surely a whole lot more).
The question is whether we can handle the withdrawal from your readable, positive and mood-lifting posts while you are away.
Have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
19:02 – Johan No.1
A little interjection from the airport, those of you who have had the honor to fight your way through the chaos in tropical heat to finally reach the air conditioning of the Heineken bar know how it is, “gods blessings” 😅
Thanks for so many kind comments 😀
Saw that I insulted Finland (again), the purpose was of course to belittle Putin not Finland. Full back on that and hiding in the economic threads for a few months reading history until I learn 🙏
19:13 – MatsExtrude
It was for a noble cause, the Finns who understand how you thought will probably forgive you!
Cheers!
10:58 – Johan No.1
My colleague from Peru has completely lost it, tried to lead with the volcanic eruption in Iceland at breakfast but he brushed it off immediately and declared that in I..el synagogues everyone prays loudly to expand I..el between the Euphrates and Egypt and that’s why they really started the war against H..as. Then he went on to say that the Houthi rebels are really only shooting at ships carrying weapons to Ukraine and that it is justified, right – he is completely lost down the rabbit hole, Meiden 3 has claimed its first victim.
Pretty convinced that UA intends to seize the opportunity when it comes here (you know what I mean) and 2024 will be a slippery slope for pretty much everyone on the wrong side of the fence right now 😀
The Orban government will likely be toppled in 2024.
https://twitter.com/kvistp/status/1736777738000695468?s=46&t=r3ZZkmkn2WTLmzgRndkZbQ
In Serbia there are large popular protests after the election which the Russians have probably had a big hand in.
https://twitter.com/ivanastradner/status/1736857342296109143?s=46&t=r3ZZkmkn2WTLmzgRndkZbQ
https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1736860048641479037?s=46&t=r3ZZkmkn2WTLmzgRndkZbQ
Two people with insight are to testify in The Hague against Putin – bad for Putin and good for the world.
https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1736971323421716909?s=46&t=r3ZZkmkn2WTLmzgRndkZbQ
Both the USA and the EU are now going after Twitter, well deserved and if it turns out that Russian money is partly behind it, which is not unlikely, this could get interesting.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1736792329808179476?s=46&t=r3ZZkmkn2WTLmzgRndkZbQ
My thought about Moldova right now is that UA needs Soviet-caliber ammunition and that huge weapons depot in Transnistria might not be entirely uninteresting – we’ll see?
Anyway, things are moving there and it is likely that Moldova will retake Transnistria, a better opportunity probably will never come.
There are explosions in Iran now.
https://twitter.com/montaybaybay/status/1736852940780888476?s=46&t=r3ZZkmkn2WTLmzgRndkZbQ
And then a coalition of 10 countries is coming together to push back the Houthi rebels.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1736883317176188949?s=46&t=r3ZZkmkn2WTLmzgRndkZbQ
These kinds of videos are what the citizens of Dagestan and the families of the soldiers see, panic, crying and fear and dead soldiers completely unnecessarily.
This should absolutely not be underestimated – it is kryptonite for the liberation fronts and Ukraine is in contact with everyone for moral support.
https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1736755779066069077?s=46&t=F_dt1unB3D9JCbPf3eWkHg
The world is striking back quite hard against RU’s subversive activities and conflict-escalating moves right now and it’s setback after setback for Putin – it will be a grim Christmas break for him sitting sulking alone in the bunker with presents he didn’t want.
So what is RU doing themselves that’s going so-so –
I can’t decide if the German and French farmers are RU-instigated, the EU has had terrible ideas about shutting down agriculture to save the climate and their fuel prices have skyrocketed so the farmers are driving around spraying fertilizer on municipal and government buildings here and there right now. Quite an interesting form of protest I must say.
We guessed about a month ago that the anti-I…el protests would turn against governments and countries instead and start rampaging at Christmas markets – the heart issues.
Now they have crashed a Santa gathering in a shopping mall, hard to go tougher than that.
That was probably this year’s big long shot, chapter A1 in the big destabilization book…
https://twitter.com/drewpavlou/status/1736570787342279153?s=46&t=F_dt1unB3D9JCbPf3eWkHg
I’m getting an absolutely enormous amount of anti-UA propaganda in my feed right now, since I only click on pro-UA content it can’t possibly be based on my search history – I know what I believe.
What’s happening in Ukraine –
Their weapons industry is increasing sharply despite the ongoing war, they can manufacture 8 Bohdana 155mm per month. Take that!
https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1736979597281923541?s=46&t=r3ZZkmkn2WTLmzgRndkZbQ
UA now has an agreement with Germany for future ammunition purchases.
https://twitter.com/euromaidanpress/status/1736770853545672882?s=46&t=r3ZZkmkn2WTLmzgRndkZbQ
For quite some time UA has been knocking out RU units during their advance before they got within shooting range but now that they are starting to run out of indirect capabilities in some places we see videos of PVrocket again – no one should think that UA just rolls around and dies if the artillery goes silent, then they start fighting with PVrocket and finally anti-tank rockets again like they did at the start of the war and it worked perfectly and was enough for RU to abandon 50% of stolen terrain.
https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1736945683263807664?s=46&t=r3ZZkmkn2WTLmzgRndkZbQ
Just saw that TOW is no longer wire-guided, that was the weakness of an otherwise quite okay rocket.
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1736893560354492713?s=46&t=r3ZZkmkn2WTLmzgRndkZbQ
A reflection on the drones is that my father had model planes when we were kids that he flew occasionally, they were copies of Spitfires and some WW1 plane, maybe a Fokker. The circle is complete because these long-range drones are almost balsa wood with a motor and a warhead 😀
And since the world has moved towards ever more advanced weapons it was a bit helpless at first before old classics like the light machine gun were reintroduced and worked perfectly.
Yesterday we got the answer on proportionate response for the rocket attacks – the airbase in Russia had 2 SU-34s knocked out and 10 SU-34s damaged (so presumably not flight-ready), that’s how it should look 💥
In a couple of rounds the Russian terror bombing with rockets will cease black sea fleet-style, only one country has figured out the only language Putin understands 😀
https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1736789507616235735?s=46&t=F_dt1unB3D9JCbPf3eWkHg
Here is a good video on night fighting from the Kreminna forests, the forest where the VDV goes in and no one comes out if you remember. If you fight units without night vision they are hopelessly outclassed. I think this will make a big difference now in winter during the dark months and Ukraine will not lean back and wait for better times.
https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1736731373421871541?s=46&t=F_dt1unB3D9JCbPf3eWkHg
Ending with this, now that RU cannot get any supplies at all, do you see what is transporting supplies to the Ukrainian units 😀
Sweden has definitely manufactured war-deciding weapon systems at least this old workhorse.
https://twitter.com/girkingirkin/status/1736801915953193175?s=46&t=r3ZZkmkn2WTLmzgRndkZbQ