10:29 – MatsExtrude
Thanks! Have missed your essays and your positive attitude towards Ukraine and their possibility to kick Russia out.
As long as we in the West don’t give up, it’s only a matter of time.
21:42 – Johan No.1
An eye for an eye
https://twitter.com/azovsouth/status/1744430833199448278?s=46&t=6H9aU5CgKS9kjlMGgDhEQA
09:18 – Johan No.1
Yep, it was nice with Christmas and one of the better (many) small New Year’s parties we’ve actually held. Now one is back charged with energy from all the Mariestads, grill chips, and ranch dip that have been part of a background health regimen throughout the period.
Badaboom posted some videos before New Year’s that went through Kharkiv and Kherson with slick graphics. The person behind the videos had done their homework with detailed information about which brigades fought where.
First of all, we knew quite little about 2022 before summaries came out. The Ukrainian side and the other are pretty good nowadays and the unit maps have also caught up, but back then there were big white spots and I remember Sirskyi talking about “some brigade” and that “15 tanks led the breakthrough” – there were units from dozens of Ukrainian brigades involved and offensive operations in several places that combined to the collapse. You are always deceived by videos of squad-level combat into thinking that the numbers are also squad-level when in reality tens of thousands of soldiers on both sides participate in the battles.
Combined arms warfare and an absolute knockout on units that were the old Russian contract army and partly retained.
https://youtu.be/rVkmCB0fTxE?si=3Qf9wYcAALIVgNim
Then it was repeated at Kherson very nicely in the famous operation “Badanka” and there it was basically the entire VDV that Ukrainian forces fought against and outplayed the white-striped shirt off them. For those who still doubt, I have saved a bunch of tweets proving that operation Badanka was real.
So, in spring 2023 it was by no means unrealistic to believe that an even greater Ukrainian offensive capability with Western equipment and a Russian low point of newly mobilized troops would give similar results and that the southern front would collapse in a cloud of Russian curses. That was the goal of the spring offensive where Bakhmut was a decoy and then breakthroughs would be achieved at the southern front at one of the three attack vectors or the Dnipro resulting in the delivery of the “Azov strike,” forcing Putin between only bad choices.
I think the mines took Ukraine by surprise but they shouldn’t have, we KNOW that you can operate drones with night vision that see all mines at dusk when they are warmer than the surrounding ground and we roughly knew how much time had been spent on fieldwork even though the undersigned was more positive and discussed weak points and poor construction rather than decent deep pits for the Russians to hide in. Historians will probably dispute what happened but it is not unreasonable that Ukraine felt they could easily repeat last year’s knockout blows and that they underestimated the defense. It sounds a bit hollow though because the VDV defense at Kherson was granite-hard but I find it hard to find explanatory models for this miscalculation simply.
I also believe I know that NATO officers in their absolute arrogance demanded NATO doctrine without having resourced the exercise and that the first weeks for Ukraine at the southern front were terrible but that is behind us. It also clearly shows that the West did not want a long war because they wanted to achieve a breakthrough in 2023 but were too self-fulfilled by their own excellence to understand that they were sinking Ukraine rather than helping them.
Ukraine has paid a very high price for this misjudgment and the southern front should have collapsed in 2023 but it did not, so the war is thereby prolonged.
The reasons are simple – fortifications, mines, FAB500-1500 bombs, and Ahkp which completely blunted the offensive at the southern front. It took months to work through the mines but the Russians only mine further back and then Ahkp lasted way too long and only around Christmas was the elite air force gotten rid of.
Quite a lot of this can actually be blamed on the West for never delivering the damn weapons 🤬
Now it is indisputable that they are “slow-walking” from the West’s side, everything else is a lie. Morocco just got to buy almost 1000 Bradleys and Abrams cheaply in exchange for 100 T72s which are probably sent to Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1737505890423411120?s=46&t=VD6dofXUF4336vctuixuoQ
Then we have the 600 Bradleys that are at depots for scrapping… Why they can’t be sent to Ukraine is a bit of a mystery, right.
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1737504805193474303?s=46&t=VD6dofXUF4336vctuixuoQ
There are also those here in the thread who claimed that the West had nothing to send but to Morocco they could send 1000. It would absolutely have made a difference if Ukraine had gotten these 1000 for the spring offensive. Or imagine if they had gotten them already in summer 2022 when the entire front from south to north was shaking…
It’s more than that – Ukraine offered to BUY helicopters from Australia that were to be destroyed, they proceeded with scrapping… That there is no equipment is the biggest lie of all.
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1739950956706398647?s=46&t=6UP5Zbhu0Ixh_CBe3zVPcA
Then we have F-18s from Australia that are decommissioned and all the other tens of thousands of vehicles in Western depots that are gathering dust, both hard and flying.
I don’t want to speculate on why the West does what they do here because all options are less flattering for the West who should be ashamed but I want to firmly state for the archive that the West absolutely has weapons to send that would win the war for Ukraine within a year. Our idea in the thread about 15,000 – 20,000 hard vehicles is feasible if the West only wanted to and then they would still have half-full stockpiles left.
Apparently the Khakovka explosion bought Russia the time they needed at the Dnipro because Ukraine was about to cross, I read somewhere – that sounds reasonable because otherwise they wouldn’t have blown it up but I also got the impression that the effects helped Ukraine establish themselves on the left bank so both bitter and sweet at once.
A few numbers (again…) that are hard to ignore when launching 2024’s negative theories about why Ukraine cannot win the war – at Kherson and Kharkiv Russia lost +500 tanks and it collapsed completely in autumn 2022.
Just in October 2023 Russia lost 550 tanks and they have lost 1500 since sometime last summer. The losses now are magnitudes greater than what almost collapsed them in autumn 2022.
Those who still claim that Ukraine fights poorly and is not the world’s best infantry as someone in the thread tends to nag about far too often and loudly should watch the above video and then admit to themselves that they have fallen for cheap Russian psyops and been easily fooled. It was a complicated battle plan with carefully thought-out steps and misleading maneuvers where combat was actively led and openings exploited that gave Ukraine a smashing victory – a series of offensives with units from dozens of Ukrainian brigades.
We can speculate on what Russia has left in terms of hard vehicles and barbarians at the fronts even though the dilemma of how we should interpret the loss figures gives me sleeplessness but I stand by my interpretation.
Russia had 2500 tanks in Ukraine sometime last summer and 1500 have been knocked out since then. Add to that all with technical faults and Ukraine has more tanks than Russia in the war.
At Izyum there were hundreds of hard vehicles at the staff and logistics when they drove over it and that was only in one place.
All categories of armored personnel carriers had 4,500 units in Ukraine last summer, and they have probably lost 2,500 since then at a minimum, so Ukraine absolutely has a numerical advantage there as well. Consider that Ukraine has received a total of 8,000 armored vehicles from the West.
It is said to take 9-10 months for a Russian unit to receive new vehicles according to previous reports, and yes, there are vehicles in depots that can be refurbished, but it takes time to get them out to the units, and before they are with the units, they are not counted.
It might also be worth pointing out that there seem to be 3,000 BMPs of all models left (at most) that could be refurbished, and that Russia has lost 2,500 armored vehicles since last summer, meaning less than half a year’s consumption remains.
https://twitter.com/highmarsed/status/1740789720928624721?s=46&t=LFEfhCQOE_zVQJJGRWLktg
Many Russian brigades today are 1,000 strong or fewer, and all the “territorial” units, those with 1,000-series designations, Storm Z (which is running out) and BARS are more infantry than mechanized, I guess.
My qualified guess is that Ukraine has the numbers in armored vehicles, better armored vehicles, the numbers in maneuver units, and qualitatively infinitely better maneuver units.
That Ukraine will win this war is indisputable now that the artillery has been decimated and the air force and army aviation have stopped moving at the fronts. Ukraine has also trained and refined its combined arms warfare and digital command to something that Western unit commanders almost get worried seeing, and they have SOF deep in areas we know very little about but can guess are high density since all of the West’s SOF are fighting there, and it is an unquenchable large fire.
We must also not forget that Russia is losing more modern tanks now and older models have declined so the claim that Russia is saving better tanks for a future blow is a big lie as well.
https://twitter.com/verekerrichard1/status/1741870009893155238?s=46&t=L53rSBS3xvSNqHvQyn_R1w
We will definitely see mechanized combat going forward, and if Russia has not withdrawn voluntarily, it will then become a chain reaction and an unorganized retreat out of the remaining Ukrainian territory.
Those of you who read the grand campaign plan know how this will play out.
De facto, Ukraine must retain a large defense force to secure its very long land border with Russia after this – so we said already in 2022 that they could not go to zero in round 1. They have today secured over 60% of the border with Belarus and Russia, and it is the last 30% that remains to be reached and then secured. The mine weapon has proven to be excellent, so it will probably be deep mine lines if one may guess?
Ukraine can then entirely on its own have a demilitarized zone 20 km into Russia that they maintain themselves with domestically produced weapons, which is what we are heading towards. Already in 2024 they have a very large war industry, and in the coming years they will probably manufacture what they want themselves?
What did December actually look like now that the media tells us that Zelensky is panicking and Putin is winning?
It was actually the highest barbarian losses ever, second highest tank losses, and somewhat unexpectedly the highest special equipment losses ever together with soft vehicles – it is impossible for Russia to absorb these losses over time. Their losses in autumn 2022, which nearly led to a collapse, were a fraction of these.
Above all, it is not low intensity or frozen fronts at all – there is a dead Russian behind every bush right now.
How is the Russians’ winter terror campaign going?
Ukraine is shooting down almost everything, over 90%, right?
At the same time, 1-2 Western missiles slip through heavily defended priority areas like ports and cause devastation. Imagine if 150 TAURUS missiles showed up?
Or ATACMS, Storm Shadow, or the F-16 carried long-range missiles?
Just so everyone is completely clear, Zelensky got a yellow card from the West when they carried out a liberation operation against Novorossiysk last autumn 🤬
This is absolutely astonishing and blood pressure-raising, pure suicide camp in the West these days.
https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1742119927958421788?s=46&t=L53rSBS3xvSNqHvQyn_R1w
Ukrainian drones and liberation fighters also cause enormous damage in various oblasts more than Russia manages to cause in Ukraine.
Right now, Russia is more damaged by the winter bombing campaign than Ukraine is, that is indisputable, and there is a high probability that it will lead to a “full blockade of the Black Sea.”
Nothing is as the media portrays it, and we are two years into the war, and if Ukraine got a few hundred missiles, they could turn off the lights in Russia.
If they did not turn off the lights, at least the air force, Black Sea fleet, and strategic bombers would cease to exist as branches of the armed forces.
2023 – First, it was the artillery that was knocked out, then the Black Sea fleet, then train transports, then army aviation, and then the air force, where all branches have now stopped fighting in Ukraine at the same level as pre-liberation operations. The artillery mostly focuses on survival nowadays.
The only thing left is the strategic bombers and missile weapons. Yes, 46 missiles can knock out all the Iskander platforms stationed at the northern border.
They will probably have to cut the strategic bombers at the bases, but it will definitely happen despite the West giving Zelensky more yellow cards now than the Serbian national team usually gets when things start going well for Ukraine.
Wait until we read that Ukraine is the aggressor and Russia is the victim, then there will be some sick days in the thread from the skyrocketing blood pressure.
Things are absolutely going terribly badly for the Russians right now in all categories, this year’s missile barrage is almost entirely shot down, and these are the largest efforts in the whole war as well as triple efforts, but nothing gets through.
So when everything is summed up at staff meetings, there are only flickering eyes, the smell of anxiety, and sweaty foreheads.
Yes, Russia has enormous inertia and they are disturbingly good at their subversive activities, but they are losing the war right now.
– There will be no frozen fronts.
– There will be no negotiated peace.
– Losses are skyrocketing.
– Ukraine does not give up.
– The West has plenty to send, so much that Morocco received 1,000 vehicles from the USA.
Everything else we hear is Russian influence that surprisingly many still fall for after two years – many lies about the West having nothing to send this autumn, we have also read that in the thread.
There was no major threat either from the global escalation, I…el is making a mess of H..as in the tunnels, and the Houthi rebels will have a grim 2024, but attacking international shipping will sting, ask the Somali pirates.
October 7 was a black day, but Simon Pearsson will have to give me my money back for his book, it was false advertising.
China has not shown its cards yet, but the fact that they have not shown their cards indicates restraint, and October 7 is many months behind us now. Effects tend to fade, and letting first I…el sweep away H…as and then letting the West organize itself in a campaign against the Houthis means they can handle the next low blow if it comes. To overwhelm the West, it would have to come roughly simultaneously, so the probability is high that we have now seen most of it.
So Russia has a few aces up its sleeve – there is a high probability that they have played most of the deck by now.
Yes – they might launch tactical nuclear weapons now that the West has shown it can stand and jump on them completely without consequences, but you don’t win any wars with that, and Ukraine has proven to be quite resourceful and has naturally planned for such a scenario as well – some freedom fighter is sitting with a DHL truck full of C4 waiting for the call about the delivery of a larger express package to the Kremlin.
2024 is shaping up well, and the command of the Ukraine war thinks so too, I see very little panic in their actions – they are letting this take its time. Meanwhile, Russia is breathing anxiety every day right now, they are absolutely desperate in their attempts to overwhelm Ukraine and force them to give up.
Russia believes it has no time, Ukraine believes it has time.
Here is some of what UA is producing right now.
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1741883510955139309?s=46&t=L53rSBS3xvSNqHvQyn_R1w
Their domestic production or production in cooperation with Western countries is increasing sharply.
Now the West is also trying to find ways for UA to get the 300 billion dollars frozen from Russian assets – they can buy a lot of weapons with that, and at least Norway is thinking business and preparing the ground to sell weapons to Ukraine. We will see if Sweden follows and sells our CV90, Archer, 122 and Gripen at a good price to finally make a decent arms deal in the Kingdom of Sweden’s lifetime where we don’t get ripped off in the end.
The little I know about economics and previous crashes, tiger economies, Japan, PIIGS and so on, I guess Russia will take the full hit in the coming recession and the West will come out stronger from this. The West de facto has unlimited permission to completely destroy the Russian economy here, and there is probably a certain degree of self-preservation in this as well, one might guess, where Russia will be made the scapegoat?
Putin can and wants a low-intensity war. Right now the war is anything but low-intensity and that is a huge problem for the criminal clan that Ukraine is bold enough to defend itself.
The West’s only obligation is to ensure that Ukraine can conduct a high-intensity war here – everything else they take care of and they are not asking us to die for them. Not even that can the West manage right now but the problem child might improve in 2024, there is hope.
The point where Russia turns inward is approaching, that Russia should be able to conduct this war for several more years is completely unreasonable and hot air.
Someone wrote in the thread right at the beginning that Russia can only increase the level of violence and if that’s not enough they increase it even more until they either win or crash, they won’t win.
UA offensive and mechanized combat are on the cards, exactly when only Ukraine knows but there is no reason to let the Russians build even better fortifications or mobilize heavily after the presidential election.
The absolute best thing that could happen is of course that Ukraine repeats a Kherson, Izyum or Kherson a few weeks before the presidential election, right…
Putin has in his shining arrogance exposed himself enormously by believing that an election can be held in Russia in peace and quiet which he will win.
Ukraine has every reason in the world to disrupt this in every way they can – acts of liberation, hacking media and spectacular victories on the battlefield.
2024 is definitely the year that will feel like autumn 2022, spectacular victory after spectacular victory with the difference that Ukraine will also take the war to Russia this year.
The level of acts of liberation is absolutely enormous right now even though the media constantly reports them as technical faults and accidents, a low-intensity war of accidents.
According to the information we received, RU has under 1000 missiles for this winter terror campaign.
They fired 300 in four days and over 90% were shot down.
They thus have enough in the barns for two similar campaigns more and then it’s over – doesn’t feel like a strength directly.
https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1742267977708212313?s=46&t=8qScSFx8COK8Q0civfm-JA
Especially since what RU has fired so far – 7400 missiles according to a post by Erik14 around Christmas, did not lead to any capitulation or revolution in Ukraine.
Then it will be fun to see how RU reacts to “an eye for an eye” playing out right now – UA’s drone swarms and spectacular acts of liberation should have shaken RU and there is a chance it will become a Black Sea fleet situation that is supposed to maintain a naval blockade of the Black Sea from the piers in Novorossiysk.
I know it’s too early but always fun with the rhetorical question if RU is now shooting up all ammunition ahead of a retreat 😀
If we felt 2023 was a good year we will go up and down in the light blue elevator with soothing music in 2024 and rejoice when the struggling luxury pine hat is hard marinated in gasoline before ignition.