13:09 – MatsExtrude
👍 Thanks!
Now it has been Russian Christmas and some bad weather but it actually looks like the Russians are starting to lose momentum. Feels a bit early to be sure, we’ll see how it looks next week.
If so, I hope you are right about AFU’s reserves, so they have the strength to exploit the low point.
Taurus and long-range ATACMS would be nice but none have been promised directly, however, at least those darn GLSDBs must be delivered soon!!
No, the West must increase the pace!
13:29 – Johan No.1
GLSDB is completely crazy, wasn’t it SAAB themselves who said there was a little in stock and then deliveries have been postponed all the time. You can’t know everything behind it but some production should be able to start of ammunition planned for production after a couple of years. Maybe they have already used them but don’t want to announce it, who knows?
AFU offensive reserves are simple math, which brigades are resting, hard vehicles consumed, and losses 1:5 of RU.
We know that 3rd AZOV fought all spring and summer before being withdrawn.
The Marine Corps was full strength this spring and has fought summer and autumn and is pushing forward.
There are a large number of brigades that have not been pushed hard as well as 6-7 new brigades being formed.
13:44 – MatsExtrude
Something fishy is going on with GLSDB. Maybe it turned out that the concept didn’t work so well when starting serial production.
If they had gotten them already, I guess we would have seen something about it.. (some of them should have been shot down by the Russians, they should be a bit slower and easier to hit than GMLRS).
Then I hope this is a real Russian culmination point we see and that AFU can exploit it and give them a good beating!
13:47 – Johan No.1
It is rumored that quite a lot goes within the USA and less is direct support to UA but I don’t know that well. Then unfortunately they have run out of surplus Bradleys now that Morocco got to buy and they will continue with scrapping so the easily accessible pool of IFVs and MBTs just conveniently dropped to zero.
There are lots of old M60s but that might be a stretch 🙂
They do have a hell of a lot of other stuff and “quantity is a quality in itself” apparently so send 15,000 – 20,000 hard vehicles of various models. M113 with a mounted ZSU23-2 apparently has some bite. A 50 cal works too.
Those 300 billion USD that UA is supposed to get must go quite far too, right?
If UA just has cash in the account, they can start placing orders that are then prioritized by manufacturers (one can hope…).
It won’t happen now but if UA got priority, they would have an air force of 350 F35s within two years putting a straitjacket on Putin.
There is reason for concern regarding corruption though, hard to keep track of 300 billion USD plus that from the USA and EU, so it would probably be best if UA gave the shopping list to the EU and USA who pay maybe?
14:03 – Johan No.1
Yes, a lot is happening behind the scenes and more and more countries are starting to deal with the subversive activities that are simmering.
The fact that they seem to bypass Orban in a few days is actually very significant because it shows some risk of consequences in the EU if you misbehave too much – it seems Slovakia chose life over too much obstruction.
I have saved a tweet with “evidence” (which is just a statement of course from an account we don’t know) that many accounts that previously pushed hard for shutting down nuclear power in the EU switched to pushing for no support to Ukraine.
That it is being slowed down is indisputable and for my part, I believe the Russian subversive activity is enormously more widespread than many want to believe but things are moving in the right direction right now.
The EU actually seems to be doing almost better than the USA here, Reagan must be turning in his grave.
15:42 – Johan No.1
The most important thing we have to relate to is what has made us democracies – a completely superior form of government.
If we overthrow a dictatorship by becoming a dictatorship ourselves, then the dictatorship has won.
The core issues are a bit trickier, tolerances disappear immediately when groups that are very different stand and jump on what is important to oneself, but you have to accept that and hope that it moves in the right direction over time.
15:54 – Johan No.1
Think about how cold it is in Ukraine, either below zero or hovering around zero, it does wonders for the Russian combat capability.
They also have a physical low point right now.
16:19 – Johan No.1
When I arrived in Angola in the early 2000s, they had just left 30 years of civil war behind them and for an ordinary poor citizen it was jackpot to get to eat one meal, they could go three days without food.
That taught me that a country’s citizens are infinitely tougher than we in the West think they are, you just adapt to a new reality and keep going. Some preparation is never a bad idea but there is no point worrying about things that have not yet happened and that you cannot influence. Now, some movements in SE have actively tried to remove fireplaces for many years but being able to heat your home with your own wood is not so bad and is probably an example of something you can do?
12:28 – Johan No.1
I entertained myself by saving interesting information during the absence, so there will probably be some link discussions ahead. I had thought that Dengamle would show up and wish everyone a Merry Christmas, but he is busy down by the Dnepr, or rather Budanov is busy with him.
This one is good because it is a “best-of” Russian influence operations to change the West’s attitude towards Ukraine.
You quickly see that it is all the negative stuff that some feel compelled to peddle all the time.
https://twitter.com/p_kallioniemi/status/1744420183060398308?s=46&t=6H9aU5CgKS9kjlMGgDhEQA
We discussed last summer that the spring offensive was fully resourced and it was, and we assumed that the West would send new pallets of death for the next offensive if needed.
It was needed because breakthroughs were absent during the spring offensive and Putin’s fading hope was rekindled when he saw that his embarrassing excuse for an army could barely hold on and that the West almost wanted to find a way out of it now that they had already sent 0.5% of what they had in stock.
The drone weapon is handled by Ukraine themselves but that is not all, small-caliber ammunition, ammunition for armored vehicles and especially ammunition for 155mm weapon platforms and long-range are needed.
We have quite good control over the long-range weapons because there is always a huge amount of death as soon as UA has received a shipment.
Unfortunately, the West has not provided 155mm ammunition in the quantities needed and last summer UA surpassed RU in the number of shells fired per day but now UA has gone down to 2000 and RU up to 10,000.
For me, this means that RU has managed to recover from about 6000 per day to 10,000, almost doubling.
And UA has gone down from 6000 – 7000 to 2000, a very sharp reduction.
Since UA suffers 70% losses of its artillery, this is highly unfortunate and no, the West has not run out of ammunition, that angle is Russian influence.
https://twitter.com/jayinkyiv/status/1743576919797338407?s=46&t=avjqgjBi99iweuLSAh6JUQ
-Here is someone who thinks the French can send 85 Scalp missiles.
https://twitter.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1744580983880315297?s=46&t=orkL7v7od1Xd7j_pbj-Xdw
-There are well over 500 Storm Shadow missiles at least, there has been a discussion that it takes time to get them into lethal condition?
-F-16 can fire some other type of missile we haven’t discussed that exists in quantity.
-Taurus…
-The ATACMS ammunition that is to be scrapped is probably a couple thousand in total?
-GLDSB was supposed to come.
-There are millions of cluster munitions that are probably to be scrapped as well?
-Then the thermobaric grenades that also exist in large quantities.
And if the US has millions of cluster grenades, how many HE 155mm do you think they have?
It is a secret number but you can guess more, right.
It never gets old to say that Portugal, Spain, France, UK, Netherlands and Belgium can send everything they have deployed to the perimeter defense which today happens to be Ukraine.
Throughout the war, we have overestimated the West’s (democracies, as we are apparently supposed to say now) level of ambition and staying one step ahead, we have quite a grand self-image that is starting to be somewhat tarnished here. I have been convinced that the West already in 2022 started training programs on all weapon platforms that would be sent but they did not.
Then I personally think there is business at the bottom – arms manufacturers want to make money, right, and sending worn-out equipment to Ukraine does not make you rich so what they try to lobby hard for are new contracts. These factories in UA and new production are good examples of that.
I can think that we should have both new and old but then I am not a politician either but just sit in my parents’ basement and only control my own computer time.
Something that interests me greatly is how UA “turned off the lights” in RU. I suspect that the electricity and heating systems are worn out and can easily be overloaded and that small needle-stick operations can have large follow-up effects.
Zelensky went out last fall saying that this year’s rocket rain would be met with “an eye for an eye” and we see how the drone swarms spread in nearby oblasts and occupied areas together with some more high-profile operations that give reasons for beer openings far too often nowadays.
What we haven’t directly discussed is how UA “turns off the lights” in Russia.
For me it is obvious that overloaded power grids and exploding district heating pumps are either internal acts of liberation or UA.
They did not come in November when it was slightly cold, everything comes now when it is -25 and full storm. The media will probably continue to call it technical faults and power outages but the molehill on the diagram when winter is over about technical faults will be enormous this winter.
My constant nagging about the ZSU23-2, this is how effective it is –
One piece took out 13 VDV paratroopers inside Russia when they thought it was a Ukrainian airborne landing. Also says something about how nervous they are 😀
A good all-round weapon and certainly excellent for shooting down drones.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1744083026227970459?s=46&t=OcdmKcwIs4YUxQxxDa3iFA
Then snipers are the second deadliest for the Russians after artillery and this sniper pair took out 20 barbarians on one night shift. The entire Western SOF does damage.
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1744113453600506339?s=46&t=OcdmKcwIs4YUxQxxDa3iFA
It seemed like Morocco will send 100 T72s to UA and now apparently Kuwait has 200 T84/M84 to send when they have upgraded their tank fleet.
That is 300 better-used tanks to UA!
If you guess, they will come with decent targeting systems.
https://twitter.com/hallonsa/status/1744097407053238593?s=46&t=OcdmKcwIs4YUxQxxDa3iFA
I think it looks like RU’s winter offensive has run out of gas in everything except the hot air that goes out in our media.
UA has maintained an offensive reserve that is indisputable.
It also seems like they are pre-fighting against rear functions again which would indicate thoughts about an offensive.
Why wait until all fortifications are even better and Putin has won the election and can mobilize.
Disrupting the election should be priority one and that is done with spectacular Russian losses in Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1743431058794955111?s=46&t=mAMSwTafBSC-3_9uzdjjaw
An important clue about how the rocket rain is going – RU fired rockets during these four operations with parts manufactured in September 2023. Draw your conclusions about that 😀
https://twitter.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1742842754273546464?s=46&t=8L5IbsvcVafDxqKYiQQmmQ
Something strange is that while the trolls are out in large numbers influencing, my Twitter feed has been completely cleaned up, only UA related and feelgood again.
Since my search pattern has not changed the least bit, I take it as evidence that one can manipulate quite strongly from headquarters when one wants.
The West has one task in 2024, not to give Putin a low-intensity war. Ukraine has shown great competence in all types of warfare here and it is becoming increasingly difficult for Russia to defend itself.
RU in its absolute arrogance has never prepared for the war to come to them, which it now has.
Winter terror hits Russia harder than Ukraine right now and that is new and good.
On the ground, I can only conclude that UA now has an offensive reserve to use when they consider it should be used.
RU has used up an enormous amount of units and above all has used up 50% of its strategic reserves and achieved nothing.
Doesn’t seem like there is much left to send to Avdiivka…
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1743237126475354484?s=20
There are rumors on Twitter that RU is now running LV from Ukraine to Russia and it is rumored that this is because the West now allows strikes on targets in Russia – all rumors and nothing confirmed.
https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1742627699850461663?s=46&t=WKNudNzgwruiccyQFjzftQ
https://twitter.com/jayinkyiv/status/1742873567404941497?s=46&t=8L5IbsvcVafDxqKYiQQmmQ
UA has already struck a couple of those “12” bases located right on the border with Ukraine but on the Russian side and have been living in absolute peace.
The airports have also been visited.
You can guess that there are some large staging areas and ammunition depots that ATACMS and Western missiles could wreak havoc on if they came without restrictions.
Above all, RU air defense has proven to be completely inadequate.
The fact is that Russian weapon systems barely perform while they cannot protect themselves against Western weapon systems – it’s simply terrible and these are problems that cannot be engineered away.
We will see if there is substance behind the rumors going forward.
The sore spot has had a certain ability to disappoint us over the years, but if the West can just keep up deliveries of ammunition and weapon systems during 2024, this geopolitical atomic bomb will hit Putin right in the face quite soon.
We know RU’s level of ambition – they want to become a dominant great power again. We know how they operate – torturing and murdering small children as young as a few years old.
My guess is that RU would have been satisfied controlling all terrain east of the Dnipro as well as access into Transnistria.
Then over time, they would naturally have undermined Ukraine with subversive activities, but as a first step, they would probably have frozen the war there and turned to hammering the UA state by other means.
There have been some discussions about a renewed RU offensive on the northern front, but there doesn’t seem to be much substance behind that.
That they will continue if successful is indisputable and a constantly growing conflict where RU keeps pace would suit them perfectly. They calm the West down, jump on the next country, calm the West down, jump on the next country, and so on.
Then they topple countries politically and their dominance in Europe steadily grows.
It has not been difficult to paralyze the USA and EU politically, actually, which is somewhat surprising.
Ukraine is ready to pay with human lives, suffering, and national trauma here as long as the West sends pallets of ammunition.
After this missile rain of 300 missiles, everything should be diplomatically and politically unlocked. After the terrorist attacks on the LNG pipelines and the drones over the Germans’ training of Ukrainians likewise. EVERYTHING has been politically and diplomatically unlocked for a long time.
And the consequences of not acting are almost obvious since the Russians themselves keep letting us know all the time.
How 1000 Bradleys and Abrams could be sold to Morocco is a bit of a mystery, why couldn’t the EU pool funds, buy them, and send them to Ukraine?
This “slow-walking” by the West is absolutely high risk but 2024 is the year when everything changes 😀