13:44 – Johan No.1
I forgot one – “Russia adapts to the situation and will come out stronger and better – big threat”.
Yes, we saw that at Avdiivka after two years…
14:12 – MatsExtrude
Thanks! 👍
Russia is like a grave candle, burns for a long time, but sooner or later it runs out and when it comes to hardware I think we are soon there. Hope you are right about the Ukrainian reserves, that they have the ability to keep going when the low point comes (I think we are there soon).
15:10 – Johan No.1
haha, just like a grave candle they are – what a fantastic analogy 🤣🤣
You and I probably have somewhat the same view on the hardware and it simply doesn’t look good.
UA offensive capability, I piece together losses, rotations and where the brigades have been and can only conclude that there is a serious hit but that is just a guess…
15:28 – MatsExtrude
I have myself stopped trying to keep track of all units, trust your assessment when it comes to the UA reserves!
UA’s access to ammunition is probably what feels most uncertain. I think a lot of massive artillery is required if you want to go on the offensive, even though the drones do a lot of the work and with more precision.
20:03 – Johan No.1
Hello thread, Rosgvardia is fleeing from the riots in Bashkiria (or whatever it was called…)
20:12 – Johan No.1
It’s a spark, let’s see if it catches…
22:54 – MatsExtrude
Great to see, really hope it escalates further and spreads!
07:48 – Johan No.1
Every other region has technical faults in the infrastructure.
https://x.com/vikingcoffie/status/1747570911518068816?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
08:43 – MatsExtrude
Things are going well now! According to plan! 🤣
13:12 – Johan No.1
I think tale after tale is being torpedoed here, the Russian leaking wreck takes hit after hit. They can probably handle the Russian self-image with more lies and less information flow, but the world sees everything that is happening. Who wants to buy Russian weapons after this war, who believes that Russia can protect them, and not least, who believes that Russia can threaten them?
-The Russians have unlimited materiel.
-The Russians have enormous manufacturing capacity.
-Ukraine will run out of ammunition before Russia runs out of soldiers – “quantity is a quality in itself”.
Everything is wrong and those who actively promote these tales are either uninformed or have an agenda, presumably?
What surprises me, however, is that sometimes it comes from sources we interpret as pro-Ukraine and that they are worried about this. The answers are a Google search away but then you have to get through the Russian disinformation first.
Russia has very nicely cultivated the Soviet myth about the Red Army and transferred it to modern times with their large rearmament and enormous defense force as well as inexhaustible numbers. Don’t let a country of tuberculosis-coughing, hunchbacked alcoholics get in the way!
The world’s combined expertise, with a few exceptions, was completely wrong before the war and they are still wrong.
Then many have an unfailing ability to always draw the wrong conclusions from the material for some unfathomable reason – Russia is too strong so no point helping Ukraine turns into Russia is too weak so no point helping Ukraine – a red thread if you want to be conspiratorial?
I find it strange because there are quite a few of us in the thread who calibrated ourselves correctly at the start of the war and have been right since, but then we are not experts either and can perhaps be a bit clearer-sighted from our parents’ basement rooms in the breaks between Rise of Nations gaming.
If it is now the case that the West is holding back materiel deliveries to Ukraine out of fear of a Russian attack in a few years, then it is actually time to ask, with which army does Russia intend to attack the Baltics, do the Germans think?
That will be today’s first exercise –
97% of the Russian army is in Ukraine, they are severely short on tanks and IFVs, the army air force is finished, the air force is seriously declining, and the artillery is endangered.
2023 was the first year Russia did not violate Estonian airspace – why do you think that is?
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1747395274954117126?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5g
Their new production of most things is laughably small.
Sure, the Baltic states’ standing units number in the thousands but together with the reserves they are a few hundred thousand and one must assume they will not sit idle in the event of a twilight situation, Zelensky’s mistake will not be repeated by anyone.
Even if NATO will not send more than those battalions, Poland will send brigades into the Baltics whether they get permission or not, the country is not completely without self-preservation drive.
The West will automatically contribute air and air defense so at least Russia will be denied air supremacy and at most the West will have air supremacy. Okay, there is some chance the air defense stockpile is a bit low but the frontline aircraft are at full strength.
Presumably, the Baltic states have now been working for two years on fieldwork where mine-laying has been done or prepared – anything else would be gross negligence.
Does anyone remember JEF?
The Baltic states are part of JEF and those who support Ukraine the most in Europe are also part of it, JEF is relatively new and consists only of good friends without party crashers.
Already in a twilight scenario, JEF will ensure that there are enough Western brigades in the Baltics to make an invasion impossible – you read it here first.
JEF has enough naval capability to deny Russia any landings along the coasts and it is not affected by support to Ukraine contrary to what many seem to think.
Surely Sweden’s battalion in the Baltics has to do with JEF and not some pre-NATO arrangement as all newspapers questioned.
The terrain is not easy at all to advance in for Russia, it would be Vilnius in Lithuania maybe where they get close enough to reach with heavier caliber artillery but urban combat that follows will go as it has so far for Russia.
If Belarus and Kaliningrad participate in the war, Belarus and Kaliningrad will have to defend themselves against Poland and in Belarus’s case also against Ukraine.
Russian missile platforms will be shot down this time.
So much for the threat to the Baltics, yes it exists as a glorious plan on Putin’s wall and in the new tsardom but many kilometers from the border they will not get before it stops, that is absolutely crystal clear.
We hardly need to speculate about Finland, Putin is not suicidal yet and is probably careful about armed attack on Finland (be careful with the sarcasm as you see).
Yes – the West must rearm, if you want peace you must prepare for war.
No – the West should not hold back materiel to Ukraine because they are worried about a Russian offensive war in a few years.
Yes – Western weapons production will increase exponentially so all “it takes 10 years to replace based on today’s production figures” are obsolete.
Now it seems 40 SCALP missiles are coming from the French and they have already delivered 50 – that means huge mushroom clouds, knocked out air force or navy again. Erik14 posting as usual.
Then Macron has promised “hundreds of bombs” which is quite vague 😀
The Brits have promised “long-range weapons” and there are probably hundreds of Storm Shadows left and the Germans are pushing Taurus quite hard on Scholz.
Macron hints at security guarantees and helping Ukraine win the war – the same wording as the UK.
The Germans are on that train too.
Yes, that is very good but where is the US cluster munitions which they have millions of, thermobaric grenades and above all the damn ATACMS…
It has become a political battle in Australia about scrapping the helicopters that Ukraine wanted to buy by the way.
Canada is going to destroy 83,000 “rockets”, why the hell aren’t they sent to Ukraine?
https://twitter.com/iendure_4evr/status/1738644962902675695?s=46&t=Y4iGDSPvSQI8R8WLaVWAFg
Yes, there is some new stuff in Ukraine that we have not caught yet, below is some new cool ammunition (right?) but the “war-deciding weapon package” is conspicuously absent.
https://x.com/togajano21/status/1744802826008539313?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The West continues to scrap materiel as if it were still 1989 and the warehouses are absolutely packed – so packed that Morocco got almost 1000 Bradleys and Abrams 🤬
Sure, materiel is coming, more Marders than promised, Kuwait MBTs, Morocco’s 100 T72s and a bit more but it is not the war-deciding weapon package.
https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1738088314303857070?s=46&t=GgX2pbrk9P4ddXW6R_drqg
Then all the user demands on the materiel and micromanagement of how Ukraine fights which together with slow deliveries sabotaged the low point in 2022, the spring offensive in 2023 and now it is probably a toss-up whether there will be a winter offensive or not, I think in a fit of pessimism, which quickly blows away in a mild spring breeze in blue.
Countries in the West’s exports to Kazakhstan went up 5000%, China’s exports to Russia up enormously – ball bearings 3000% for example, ammunition from China to Russia, heavy ammunition and artillery from North Korea, drones and heavy ammunition from Iran. Iran and North Korea plan to send missiles.
Russia is getting a lot, so the West must naturally deliver more – simple math, right?
From my parents’ basement room, the worst thing that could happen to the free West is if Putin continues as he is now without a UA offensive taking place, he goes on to win the election in March, he announces a mobilization of some half a million more, and the fieldworks continue undisturbed.
At some point (we are not there yet) the defensive works and the number of Russian soldiers in Ukraine will be too extensive to be swept away regardless of how many F-16s are delivered.
At some point, Ukraine’s unique “pulling in the same direction” will become like a group project at school and everything will collapse – then the West suddenly has no sensible counterpart to coordinate everything with.
The West’s arrogance towards this exceptional risk is striking – I think everyone understands that the great global conflict of our time will either be extinguished in Ukraine or go worldwide.
The West has woken up, so if Russia is pushed back it will be the end of our time’s world wars for the forges and training camps will spit out a first-class defense force for the next 15-20 years before things calm down.
If Russia gets its consolation prize in Ukraine, which they absolutely do not deserve given how poorly they have fought, then the plan for world domination will proceed as intended – that plan is probably clear to everyone by now given how many times it has been written in the thread.
I am a bit on the positive side and guess that Ukraine will not let itself be discouraged by negative middle managers who drain the unit’s entire will to live with their incompetence and that they do what they can in this low point RU is in now.
Why would they lose steam now after two years when they have previously done the impossible?
Winter is a hell to be in the field and RU is infinitely worse prepared than Ukraine. They are currently only fighting to survive and the combat value is very low.
The “Stuka effect” we discussed when HIMARS arrived has been more than achieved by the drone weapon and nerves are on edge around the clock.
The offensive reserve is enough for a hit before the ground’s bearing capacity deteriorates again and Ukraine has done more with less before. Kherson was as well fortified as the southern front for example and then the VDV’s capability remained.
Field fortifications are all well and good but they are not everywhere and Ukraine has learned how to bypass minefields now.
It always sounds fun that “Russia replenishes with 30,000 per month” but how good soldiers do you think they are?
A few months of training and out into the pit among drone swarms.
That RU’s materiel is insufficient is indisputable, at Avdiivka they pooled together a large offensive reserve and towards the end it was trucks from the 50s, older tanks and armored infantry on tanks. Deviations from doctrine all of it and nowhere near how they fought during the winter offensive with their mech.
Doesn’t it speak volumes that RU has started extensive fieldworks down in Crimea – I think it does 😀
At the Dnieper, it is my opinion (I guess I can write that) that UA has the advantage in artillery, EW and drones and that they exploit it to the maximum. The Dnieper is a weak point.
The northern front is still largely undefended.
Ukraine is far from weak in northern Luhansk despite the media refusing to let go of it.
The southern front is a bit exciting because RU has pulled units away to the Dnieper and up to Avdiivka, exactly how many is unclear.
There are plenty of holes in the Russian shield now and the strategic reserves they have will not be able to make a difference. We said in January 2023 that Russia had lost the war if they did not mobilize – that still stands.