2024-01-24

11:17 – Johan No.1

The price of freedom.
https://x.com/mykhailorohoza/status/1749254921373835266?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Back to the mangled Russian, a digression like yesterday is a bit tricky because for me it is obvious, having lived so many years on site and seen it with my own eyes as we worked quite high up in society but where Sweden has not quite caught up yet and it may sound controversial but I dare to go back today again.

I am sitting and thinking about what Russia will do globally with or without proxies now that the missile rain is being shot down and Ukraine’s carpet bombs in Russia are not being shot down.
Unfortunately, Enerhodar is probably too good a candidate to get a serious technical fault 😐
MENA terrorists carrying out spectacular attacks in the EU as well, there are plenty of them after the US ravages in the region 😐

I have completely let go of the demonstrations now because Western politicians seem able to defend themselves against them but they continue with undiminished strength.
Quite funny with all the videos of pro-I…el demonstrators who get asked – “what river and what sea” and almost without exception they have no clue. Now the person with the camera probably chooses those who seem clueless but still noticeably how poorly informed they are despite standing and demonstrating.

We in the thread by now know every town in Ukraine with more than a thousand inhabitants and whether it lies on a dominant height or not, so there is some arrogance to be passionate about something without having learned the most fundamental thing which was where the country is located.

By the way, ammunition for 155mm is now coming, the West’s forges have slowly started to glow and according to earlier, one should not look at last year’s production figures, they are scaling up much faster than that.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kjneeen2lq2d

This is how it goes – the West can meet the “axis of evil” which has scaled up to a war economy with its peace production still ongoing in every global conflict for a long time but it looks a bit shaky.
Then it takes far too long for democracies to accept that the die is cast – every war is like that and the rogue state that has gotten a feeling is far ahead in planning.

A war economy always has an end date and a peace economy is infinite, right.
Over time, the West scales up its weapons production so that it becomes a win and the rogue states lose spectacularly.
Then come lots of new proposals for eternal peace and democracies continue to arm for 30-40 years or so before they slowly start to feel that the world is a peaceful place.
Rinse and repeat.

NATO has not been so bad though and the EU is slowly beginning to shape into something you don’t jump into without consequences so progress is being made.
Democracies learned long ago that war is not good for business but when required they solve the task – so also this time but the sluggishness is paid for by Ukraine with the currency of human lives.

There is still a reasonable chance that Russia will be beaten and our time’s great global conflict ended with the Ukraine war + some small stuff.
However, it should be clear that if Russia manages to continue, there is an ambitious plan that includes China but they seem to be waiting for now.

Western arms support stands between the two alternatives.

Now we know that GUR has sabotaged 3 TU22M bombers because they have told us themselves. They have definitely targeted the strategic bombers, pretty sure some TU95s have also been hit.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kjpf5gaqfl2b

There was a great fear recently when Ukraine went down from firing 7000 artillery shells to 2000 per day and the Russians went from 6000 to 10,000 per day.

For a short period, Ukraine fired more artillery shells per day and we rejoiced that the West had finally pulled itself together but it was short-lived because the unwanted son never seems to disappoint us.

Those 3 million cluster munitions that are to be scrapped in the USA will never come in large quantities and ATACMS, those really fun ones, there were only 20 of them but my god what an impact they had.

Saw from Grankovich this morning that Russia initially fired 63,000 shells per day against Ukraine.
UA has thus reduced Russian artillery by over 80% from the peak.

We were told before that it had been reduced by 70% but now we probably have the numbers to compare with – it has been written in the thread before.

Since Ukraine took 70% of its losses from artillery, their losses should have gone down significantly, I think.

No prize for guessing that the campaign to knock out ammunition depots and barrels has had the intended effect.
These are hard numbers and with Russian artillery losses recently, I don’t think they will get much above 10,000 shells per day again – if that is not an achievement by Ukraine, I don’t know what is.

Regarding T72 losses, mod 2022 has increased sharply recently – in the ongoing discussion about them sacrificing older tanks which they do not 😀
T90 and T80 have probably also gone up and T62 down.
Then in the big missile rain, some missiles had components manufactured in September 2023.
Russia is finishing everything they can and sending it to Ukraine is my opinion.

Here is the Armenian volunteer battalion. Even though the international legion has decreased sharply, ethnic units of Russians or former Soviet republics have increased much more. According to reports, there were tens of thousands of Russians in line to join the units but they have to try to smoke out the FSB agents first 😀
Even the “Siberians” now have a volunteer battalion.
https://twitter.com/gloooud/status/1737543874438926842?s=46&t=VD6dofXUF4336vctuixuoQ

There has been a figure flying around that RU has 74,000 in Kherson, I am quite convinced that it is the number of brigades X full strength which the situation on the ground absolutely is not but then it also includes logistics, depot workers, artillery and rear functions.
The spearhead is probably quite depleted at Kherson and ready to be overrun.
https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1738828399781543937?t=2qwov4WToe_pETQ_S6JAHA&s=19

We will continue to rejoice at failed Russian offensives – near Avdiivka there will probably be a similar bloodbath as in Bakhmut and in northern Luhansk the entire West’s SOF is now a strongly dampening effect also with ATESH and other partisans.

We also rejoice at operation “turn off the lights” and that Ukraine has become environmentally friendly and is tackling oil dependence.
Waiting times for offensive operations from UA.

We were supposed to keep an eye on two things – Russian mobilization and that UA runs out of gas and starts to retreat. I don’t think we see either of these two so positive-positive remains.

12:35 – MatsExtrude

Thanks! 👍