11:24 – MatsExtrude
Thanks! 👍
Wonder if it is so that they are letting Ukraine strike into Russia now since they are letting Isr*el do the equivalent, and they have realized that it would be a bit too bold double standards if there were different rules.
Or maybe Ukraine has gotten tired and simply ignores the admonitions.
Regardless, I think it is necessary as long as the West does not ensure to provide what is needed.
I previously thought the war would end because Russia would not be able to sustain the war industry due to lack of materials, tools, and machines (because of the sanctions). Now I think it will partly be the economy that will decide, and what Ukraine is doing now is the absolutely smartest they can do.
Hope they can keep up the pace!
13:32 – Johan No.1
Yes, the Russians are surprisingly resilient 😀
There is much to suggest that they are lacking – T54-55, T62 and that losses of T72 now dominate mod2022.
They are also losing export versions of the T90, the S version.
Losses of newer tanks dominate.
BT50 at the front.
Armored infantry assault at Avdiivka in trucks from the 1950s.
That they make an effort to recover damaged tanks.
We will see now at Avdiivka if it becomes mechanized Russian style again or if they run across the fields – it will probably be a clear indication of whether they have plenty of tanks or not.
13:33 – Johan No.1
I believe that Ukraine is driving this and that the countries in Europe have realized that they cannot impose these demands because then Ukraine loses, especially now that the US has withdrawn.
If they had received thousands of Bradleys and Abrams it might have worked but now they got 30.
13:34 – Johan No.1
I have learned the word potemkin facade and am of the opinion that it is significantly worse than we think in the Russian production lines 😀
14:10 – Johan No.1
The million mobilized Ukrainians will not sit down and sob and say they give up – ever.
This is their chance to get back for hundreds of years of oppression of which in the latest everyone knows someone who has died or been wounded.
The war is existential for Ukraine and they cannot fall any further than this, it can only go upwards. Nuclear weapons maybe but that day, that sorrow.
Quantity is a quality in itself and I think the idea that the Russians have unlimited soldiers has been disproven.
If we say a 1:5 ratio as Ukraine itself claims then we have 40X5 – 200 million.
The Russians are about 143 million and an older population.
If Ukraine can maintain the ratio they simply win 😀
Now the war is also in Russia so equal conditions there.
14:26 – MatsExtrude
Hope you are right! 👍
16:01 – Johan No.1
Do you see the trend, two drone groups knocked out in a short time.
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1750509469811761420?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
10:41 – Johan No.1
There have been some wild rumors about the plane that was shot down yesterday, apparently it was one of the few they had at least?
Then the oil terminal (or whatever it is) in Krasnodar Krai experienced a technical failure and burned down, drones were flying around doing other things in the area, a low-intensity war of technical failures.
I don’t know if this is the same oil terminal near Novorossiysk that Zelensky got a yellow card from the West for when he wanted to improve the environment but it is very clear to me that protests from the West have ceased when it comes to striking Russian infrastructure (imagine if this had happened a year earlier…).
This also means that Ukraine will accelerate further because the only thing that has held them back has been the West’s protests where we sit on our higher moral hill and watch Ukraine be devastated and their children tortured to death in torture centers.
To the FSB reading this thread, it’s probably time to announce that you have a single out here, if Putin manages to broker a peace with the West where the 1991 borders apply then the West can use EU membership as leverage on Ukraine to stop the decolonization of Russia.
If that doesn’t happen very soon, Ukraine has very clearly shown what they are capable of in my opinion because now the Russian oil and LNG distribution chain is going down very fast here.
Since I released “operation turn off the lights” it has probably gotten cold in several more cities so that’s also simmering?
For some strange reason it always starts with a technical failure in a substation with some drones seen nearby doing other things.
Not all drones are explosions, there are six or so “liberation fronts” in Russia that Ukraine cooperates with and they have their SOF deep inside Russia according to earlier reports. Budanov’s birthday was hysterically funny when they posted their birthday congratulations videos from different places in Russia.
Ukraine retaliates proportionally and has largely avoided civilian losses which is magnanimous.
In 2022 they probably didn’t manage much and in 2023 they were not allowed to go after targets in Russia or invade Russia by the West.
The latest round Storm Shadow was against targets in Crimea so maybe the West doesn’t want their missiles to be fired at targets in Russia after all?
Those of us who have listened to Budanov know that –
-Ukraine has enormous domestic production of drones with short, medium, and very long range.
-Ukraine cooperates with all liberation fronts in Russia (Ukraine is probably seen as a superhero reasonably)
-they have their own capabilities across the country.
-they retaliate “an eye for an eye” for the winter’s missile barrage.
-Russia shall be decolonized.
The first four points have proven true haven’t they, so there is some reason to believe the statement that Russia shall be decolonized is correct.
Budanov (or others) have stated that they wish to have good relations with the oblasts around Ukraine that have high autonomy from Russia – it is a buffer zone.
They have also promised liberation for minorities in Russia.
For those of you who thought the war would end when Russia is expelled and that Russia is a future threat, it is thus Ukraine that is now going after Russia 😀
Putin has absolutely stirred up the wrong hornet’s nest and in his absolute arrogance he has called elections in March.
And all the pessimists and doubters who sat in the thread and really believed that the West would force Ukraine to the negotiating table during the autumn or that Ukraine themselves would choose that. Sometimes it was so deafening that one started to be drawn into the doubting thoughts but it’s lucky we have Ukraine that doesn’t listen to such things.
The same arrogance in Putin when he does not defend his land border, has no internal troops left or air defense within Russia.
This has naturally only worked so far because the West promised to prevent Ukraine from striking targets in Russia.
The same as when Russia was supposed to have a full blockade against sea transports in the Black Sea and the West nervously began discussing letting Russia into SWIFT and then Ukraine came and took out enough of the fleet until it fled.
If one may speculate, maybe the fact that Ukraine has shown the West that they can take out the Russians’ nuclear-capable missiles either with conventional air defense or EW weapons has made the West calm down a bit and lifted the bundle of yellow cards, who knows?
The number of blacked-out cities and knocked-out infrastructure in Russia is enormous right now, I wouldn’t be surprised if within a month we get news that their oil exports have dropped by 70% or something 😀
And the best part is that Ukraine can do much more, and much more is coming.
I thought the Russians were somewhat desperate last autumn when Meiden 3 made the rounds and they tried to talk the West out of it – they wanted an out if you remember?
Since then Ukraine has shot down +90% of the missiles fired by Russia, turned off the lights to varying degrees in half of Russia’s regions and hit hard against the oil industry and war industry (we went through the factories a while ago).
If they got ATACMS with permission to strike the border-near bases in Russia and then F16s on top of that they would actually approach air superiority even though it is still my strong opinion that Ukraine has already denied RU air superiority and locally with the drone weapon created air superiority.
That was my opinion around the big campaign plan that the strike aircraft would become secondary precisely because Ukraine could utilize the capabilities of air defense and drones to a combo that achieved the same result.
I think everyone also understands that Putin cheated earlier, he was allowed to wage a full-scale war on Ukraine but Ukraine was denied proportional retaliation even, their land border was a red line that the West insisted on for a long time.
Now suddenly Ukraine gets to fight on equal terms, almost because the missiles are still geographically limited it seems, and Putin is hugely shaken right now.
In a short time they have convened several meetings at the UN (the one who keeps whining that they will cry and beg to keep at least Moscow in the UN going forward…) and now Putin felt compelled to comment on Ukraine’s audacity.
Putin IS seriously shaken now. Previously he stood with his measured arrogant calm and laid out how they shall reshape Ukraine.
Now he is absolutely furious that Ukraine has the audacity to take out their high-value targets at a phenomenal pace, he is really shaking and completely red.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kjs6gsnu4k2x
Unfortunately not everything is bad for Russia, they are advancing their positions in Africa quite significantly right now and the West looks away. Do you think there will be torture centers in every small town and torture-murdered-desecrated children as young as five years old – yep.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kjs7vwf2bc2b
When we went through the strategic reserves it seemed there were resources for one more strike against Avdiivka and northern Luhansk, maybe Kharkiv.
Now Avdiivka seems to be getting going.
Hot tip to the West – don’t wait too long with deliveries of critical material and ammunition.
https://x.com/anno1540/status/1750435788523790607?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
David D is of the opinion that Ukraine is conducting “hit-and-runs” with Patriot, which apparently is legendary level.
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1750176805678440545?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Here you have this year’s low point, Gutierrez lends UN legitimacy to Russia – that the UN is not ashamed and the man must resign immediately.
https://x.com/GLandsbergis/status/1750201235293000129?s=20
Someone in the thread usually nags about Ukraine fighting at legendary or wizard level – that a battalion from the Marine Corps manages to hold a bridgehead at the Dnieper at a 50:1 ratio, that UA is knocking out the Russian oil industry, or that they manage to operate Patriot completely outside the manual – isn’t that legendary level?
Guess who is fighting against Russia in Africa right now?
Who is cooperating with the liberation fronts in Russia for decolonization?
And so on in a rather long list of higher-level problem solving when the Russian problem is to be solved.
We talked at the beginning about Ukraine’s 3D warfare and it is probably at 4D now, almost touching 5?
They have activated a whole battery of new capabilities and Putin doesn’t sleep without a whole map of omeprazole nowadays and tries to find every reason not to attend the morning unit meetings.
There is something more here – Fico has done a complete turnaround, Erdogan approved SE into NATO, and Orban has toned down considerably – feels a bit like the rats are starting to abandon the sinking wreck with Putin tied to the mast?
If China were to distance itself, something would definitely have changed, but we are not there yet.
Positive-Positive