2024-01-29 -

11:17 – Johan No.1

Most of the below was covered by an alert blogger and a night-watch thread, so this will mostly be for my own archive today 😀

It now seems like full throttle on Russian attacks again near Avdiivka and up in northern Luhansk – there is talk of 40 destroyed hard vehicles towards the Lyman direction, that is where the front line is today of course, but they are probably trying to advance in the direction of Lyman.
https://x.com/albafella1/status/1751594389141430430?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

The Russians have also started offensive operations up at the northern front and recaptured some villages.
One can wonder a bit why UA hasn’t conducted more fieldwork up there but I think it is a buffer zone until their Maginot line starts and that is probably what RU is trying to conquer something in, I guess?

A single Javelin salvo has thus taken out 40 hard vehicles if anyone thought UA loss figures were exaggerated.
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1751553735480799588?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Zelensky clarifies things here so now we can stop painting the devil on the wall – they are managing but it is starting to be time for the West to resume deliveries.
I think, for example, Germany has also shown that they will do so together with the UK and France even if the USA might drop out and one should be clear that 90% of the funds would stay in the USA and that there aren’t many more Bradleys to send.

The whole narrative that Ukraine is running out of weapons and getting overrun by the Russians doesn’t seem to be pushed by Zelensky at least, and he should be considered to have the best insight and earlier they have definitely exaggerated the negative when they felt it was needed.
https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1751302448260497876?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

The Crimean canal is dry, it was part of RU fortifications behind the Dnieper before, so good.
https://x.com/euromaidanpr/status/1751631562821554377?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

I also like this one, Maxpro with a mine-clearing rig, high probability that Ukraine has developed platforms in sufficient quantity to clear mines since they realized they were stuck.
https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1751313906490913145?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

UA has thus taken out 5 oil terminals in addition to the one they hit last night and it seems like they have targeted the large export terminals?
This must directly hit Russian exports, presumably?
The night’s liberation feat also confirms that the West has not protested yet – woohoo 😀
https://x.com/euromaidanpr/status/1751845184134951380?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Greece has a fairly large defense force and if they start releasing from their stocks there is a lot they can send, now it was probably LV.
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1751543481175048583?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Then regarding the drone weapon, I think Ukraine has now got sufficient domestic production going, almost everything can be 3D printed so they are not dependent on deliveries there.
Ukraine also produces artillery shells, other ammunition, and armored vehicles in quite large quantities themselves this year.
Of course, they can’t build advanced aircraft quickly and tanks will take some more time but in everything else domestic production is added on top of deliveries.

Finland has also quietly ramped up its war material production.
https://x.com/minna_alander/status/1751595586803949608?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Maybe a bit OT but the problem with China and Congo having all the Lithium is now solved, free way for electric cars.
https://x.com/thenatlinterest/status/1751409802150859255?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Below says quite a lot about Zelensky’s integrity – Trump tries to get him to reveal some dirt on Hunter Biden and he declines by saying he can’t get involved in the US election – very neat.
https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1751628102826942566?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

A Latvian MEP has been exposed as a paid pro-Russian, someone in the thread usually says that the subversive tentacles reach far and he might be right?
https://x.com/michaeldweiss/status/1751834974100054211?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

He also used to say that the pro-P…a protests were Russian-led and Pelosi agrees.
https://x.com/rpsagainsttrump/status/1751631656765542639?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

What absolutely has Russian influence operation written all over it is the border conflict in Texas but I don’t know who is pushing which narrative.
No prize for guessing that the end game is that some dozen states will break away so that the USA turns inward.

First of all, I think Russia has clearly shown how destructive they are now that their subversive activities are fully exposed.

They have an enormous PR apparatus and have recruited traitors all over the West who can influence decision-making and now they focus on Ukraine being abandoned.

Guess if they have been behind defense cuts, both through peace movements but also budgets and decisions.

-The shutdown of electricity production – they have definitely pushed this hard.
-Peace movements – yep.
-Conflicts between groups in Western countries – definitely driving that.
-Election interference – yes.
-Refugee flows – yes.
-Starting new wars to create refugee flows – yes
-Drug smuggling – yes
-Criminal syndicates, clans and mafias in the West – yes, state-prioritized function.

Yes, the list can be long and now that we have the evidence, should the West really accept that Russia gets to keep sabotaging everything they can in peace?

Don’t we want calm to settle in the West and for us to enjoy our countries?
Pull this up by the roots if you ask me and time for the country Russia to turn inward.

They are spectacularly losing the war right now but if the subversive activities could also be gotten rid of it would be appreciated.

11:45 – Johan No.1

I googled and their largest export ports are the ones Ukraine has liberated first.
I think there are 64 in total but many small ones, they seem to have already gone after the largest and most modern ones.

Yep, it seems like Ukraine is fighting all over the area right now and there is no chance Russia can defend itself – very smartly fought by Ukraine.

Russia made a brave attempt with grain exports and the electricity infrastructure and failed – Ukraine is well on its way to choking off oil and LNG exports here.

12:29 – MatsExtrude

👍

It is a bit unfortunate that the price of Ural oil has risen (currently at 72.6) but on the other hand that could be proof that the attacks on the oil terminals are starting to show effect.