13:47 – MatsExtrude
Thanks Johan! 👍
It would be a hell of an irony if it ends with China actually acting as the adult and making sure to run over Russia so they end the war, but they could actually be the ones who benefit the most from it now. Their economy is heading to the basement, and even though it’s probably fun to increase sales to Russia, it’s peanuts compared to the USA and EU.
Cheap oil and gas they can probably negotiate even without war, because the rest of us will probably prefer to stay away.
I have previously reasoned that China actually had too much to gain from continued war, but now that they have strengthened their presence in Russia and taken over after the Western companies that left, they probably won’t go further. Of course, Russia might kick them out again after the war if the West chooses to re-establish itself, but that is unlikely to happen for many years.
Sarah, on the contrary, has just returned to Ukraine, or did I misunderstand what you meant?
https://twitter.com/SarahAshtonLV/status/1752068865402478748
13:55 – Johan No.1
Yes, China probably wants a weak Russia, no global war, and open trade with the West, I guess not necessarily in that order.
They are happy to cut Taiwan, but if it becomes a global war and no trade with the West, it’s probably not worth it.
13:55 – Johan No.1
haha, yes if Sarah is back that’s even better 👍
14:58 – Johan No.1
This is absolutely huge, Russia has wanted to support Catalonia with 500 billion USD and protection (military?) if they freed themselves from Spain – I don’t know how many laws they have broken here, at least tax evasion anyway.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kk7ciujfji2c
One wonders if they are behind the Scots’ desire for independence too, but I have always interpreted that as coming from the spirit of the people when we lived there 😀
14:59 – Johan No.1
You look like this 😲 when you read this but really you shouldn’t be surprised anymore.
20:06 – Johan No.1
The glide bombs have arrived 💥💥💥
https://x.com/azovsouth/status/1752401498363883825?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
20:07 – Johan No.1
Yippee, only second and extra points for extra explosions 👍
20:22 – Johan No.1
Apparently fifth but still big 👍
23:00 – MatsExtrude
👍👍
12:49 – Johan No.1
Well said ✊
https://x.com/igor_from_kyiv_/status/1751919092380868609?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Monthly summaries are always fun and now that the war has been going on for 22 dreadful months, it’s a good exercise to see how much damage the barbarians have taken in the past month.
It’s quite a beautiful U-shaped death curve where heavy losses in the beginning were followed by a lull in the middle and soaring losses in the last six months.
Considering that they have refreshed what they could and new production is insignificant, another period of galloping death should hit the Russian capability to wage war quite hard.
-Special equipment is ATH and that includes radar and EW against drones and probably rakes the stage for the drone swarms that will decimate the last sour trench Russians enormously.
-Transport vehicles are probably the fourth highest month in the war and hits maintenance directly.
-Barbarians are also the third highest in the whole war at around 25,000 and if you ask me, add wounded and frostbite. Frostbite in Luhansk last winter was 30% of those hospitalized.
-LV has probably been decimated quite hard already and they have started moving away from UA to the front-near bases on the Russian side of the border, so the fact that it’s only the ninth highest in the war probably means less; the field is plowed for F-16.
-Artillery is at the sixth highest with 700 knocked out per month and it definitely stings. Getting 700 new pieces out with competent crews per month is impossible and probably why they have such high losses all the time – they lose counter battery fire every day around the clock.
-IFV is sixth highest and that includes those first three Armageddon months, so substantial losses.
-Tanks are not very impressive but still a high loss figure and having fewer of them hurts more.
The sum is that these losses do serious damage and we have almost been led to believe that January 2024 was a quiet month.
The fact that losses don’t skyrocket in a certain weapon category is not unreasonable; they are probably running short in that category – fewer targets and more cautious actions simply. Regarding tanks, we have seen new behavior on the southern front where they strive to recover damaged tanks.
January 2024 also had the single heaviest day for barbarian losses in the entire war.
Quite a few records were broken this month and simply a very bleak month for Putin.
It’s not the first time we have a rumor that the military and politics are quarreling, it happens from time to time and as everyone says – it only matters when it’s formally confirmed. Zalizhny has a good reputation with the army and besides the spring offensive, he has fought spectacularly well. Of course, illness or burnout could be behind it but his latest selfie suggests he is still eager to kill Russians.
My thought with these rumors is that RU follows up with a murder of the person in question and then it spreads that Zelensky ordered him to be killed to stir up maximum aversion within their own ranks.
Reznikov actually seemed to have done quite a bit of negative stuff like not pushing the drone weapon at all and the other high officer in GUR had leaked secret information at some press conference.
It struck me yesterday that Sarah Ashton Curillo has been mocked and dumbed down because they are LGBTQ2+ and then managed to go off script in their new role as spokesperson which triggered keyboard warriors. The truth is probably that they were in a combat unit and were also wounded so they got new indoor duty and that they are a superhero. Now it seems they have moved on at last.
Totally OT but I have a bit of trouble deciding here 😀
https://x.com/chicken__queen/status/1751777164456759671?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Finland has for the first time since 1944 activated reserve war production at the level it is today – if you want peace, you must prepare for war.
https://x.com/virtaava/status/1751663249878126944?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Someone in the thread usually nags that war materiel production is an exponential curve and that last year’s figures don’t apply this year.
KM seems to think so too.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1751940368193516017?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I base this of course on the war having lasted two years and that during the last global conflict WW2, war materiel production started after a while and went from 1 to 2000.
Then this person also usually nags that what defines a global conflict is that the collective West wakes up and the forges go red hot – then the West wins – and after that there are 30-40 years of peace because the West has armed itself like violent hedgehogs.
And then everyone starts believing in eternal peace, rinse and repeat.
Half of the salaries in UNRWA are thus at 130,000 USD/year 😲
The organization is entirely funded by aid paid for by, for example, our tax money.
It seems like a trap has been set for Trump with massive damages he can’t pay – follow the money when someone really wants him in the presidential election 😀
Anyone scanning for interesting Ukrainian land grabs quickly sees that there is movement everywhere, or that Ukraine is carrying out local smaller offensives everywhere the Russians are not attacking.
It is thus far from quiet and along the entire front line there is local movement basically – if it’s not the Russians failing in their pointless attacks, it’s Ukraine retaking some dominant terrain with minimal own losses.
These are the brigades on the front line conducting these local offensives and the offensive reserve is probably just standing around eating sausages and waiting for an opening, one might think?
During the Russian winter offensive 2023 which started on January 6, Ukraine probably got going with their “recon fights” in April or so and then it increased until it was no longer recon fights and continued until early autumn when RU started their autumn offensive at Avdiivka and it got quiet for a while.
But now we see the same again, the Russian offensive is ongoing but where UA can they carry out local offensives and retake ground.
The latest was that south of Horlivka they managed to retake terrain that had been occupied by RU pre-2022.
Right now 100 Kuwaiti tanks are also making the rounds but it was closer to 300 (or 200…) total and then on top of that 100 from Morocco so a much-needed Russian-killing addition.
It seems the US might try to de-escalate with Iran, some statements from WH signal that but anything can happen. If I have learned one thing in this war it is that low-affect response DOES NOT work on Putin, it’s street law with an extra dropkick to the neck that applies.
If I were dictator, that signals intelligence ship and the two escorts giving coordinates to Houthi naval missile batteries would have been sunk and immediately followed up with a huge apology about a commander who drank on his shift and got carried away – sorry sorry sorry – and that he is dismissed, but then directly to Iran explained that enough is enough. Then China can save face.
It is clear to me that the USA is quite satisfied with enormous contracts for weapons platforms, and there is some suspicion that some in the USA would like to see a prolonged war at a moderate level for the sake of jobs.
It is proven that Biden has failed to send things they could have sent without Congress’s approval, and if you remember, they held back for quite a while on equipment from the EU that contained American components.
Then Morocco gets to buy nearly 1000 Bradleys and Abrams at a crazy cheap price.
Europe, on the other hand, I get the distinct feeling that they want to help Ukraine to a win as soon as possible – it is our backyard.
Then there is another angle – if China becomes the adult in the room here, which they very well could, they will get enormous positive publicity also in the West, and the USA will be remembered as the friend who betrayed when it really mattered.
The USA is balancing on a tightrope right now, and it’s going so-so; they have also failed in the operation in the Red Sea to protect civilian shipping.
Consider here that this is our time’s global conflict that either de-escalates or escalates, so what has been done since 2022 absolutely counts.