10:22 – Johan No.1
Artillery is the third highest monthly loss in the war, third highest for killed barbarians and for soft vehicles the highest number ever in addition to the numbers I reported the other day.
10:44 – Johan No.1
Possibly 60 Bradleys more for Ukraine, the source is uncertain.
https://x.com/samramani2/status/1752773044131504344?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
11:29 – MatsExtrude
👍 Thanks!
There was much speculation that the Russians had saved up for a long time to be able to smash infrastructure during the winter.
Sure, there have been some “rocket barrages” and at least one of them was really extensive but summing it up, it has not been anywhere near the scale of last winter.
They have also stopped attacking Odesa and the grain silos there. If they had resources, they would probably continue because it hits Ukraine’s economy directly.
It can only be interpreted as a sign that they are struggling with production and I believe this applies to most things right now. If it weren’t for North Korea delivering shells and China FPV drones, they would not have lasted this far.
There is not much to do about NK but it is starting to be time to put pressure on China, the problem is that we need to build up our own industry first, as it is now we are dependent on them..
11:35 – MatsExtrude
👍
11:42 – Johan No.1
During the campaign they launched 300 rockets and 600 Shaheds and towards the end many were taken down with EW.
If we assume that +30% (conservative) were taken down with EW or had technical faults and do not appear in the statistics, they have burned quite a lot of that stock of +800 rockets they said they had built up.
There was also some absolutely ancient rocket fired and then rockets with components manufactured September 2023 so presumably a mixed batch in what they managed to complete?
If over half have now been shot down and the damage has been minimal, they are wrestling with the question of whether they should burn all they have and get equally poor results or keep them as a threat to dangle maybe?
A bit early to ring the bell that the rocket weapon is spent but we are probably not far from there.
12:09 – MatsExtrude
True, too early to say hooray already.
It may be as you say that they have realized it gives poor results and therefore are saving them.
Then, of course, the reports that they saved in hope of 800 may also be wrong, both ways.
Regardless, it has not been as extensive as I thought it would be so I see that as positive at least.
15:12 – Johan No.1
20% of the Black Sea fleet sunk now.
https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1753033435512213929?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
16:33 – Johan No.1
Rumor from Twitter that something is burning outside Crimea
https://x.com/azovsouth/status/1753077456259690968?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
16:34 – Johan No.1
Not last on that 😲
We should celebrate this with Star beer and bolognese chips
19:35 – MatsExtrude
Wow! Congratulations! This almost beats when you managed to be first with the winged word “jgfeffg”!
Just take it easy with the celebration so you don’t miss tomorrow’s essay! 😉
19:51 – MatsExtrude
I would resign in shame if I were responsible for the Russian navy in the Black Sea.
Well, it’s not the first time they have embarrassed themselves, this is a favorite.
“The Dumbest Russian Voyage Nobody Talks About”
07:05 – Johan No.1
As impartial on the matter, I think it is a good idea.
Spontaneous, or organized, retreat over a river or similar with what you have available, like a swimming ring.
Posted some evidence from Kherson that it happened with the units left after VDV, overcrowded small boats and many drowned.
Chance to be repeated at Kerch.
Someone coined the phrase, don’t remember who but if it becomes official he will have to announce himself (i.e. not me).
10:21 – Johan No.1
Now I had reason to correct the monthly report in dead Russians a bit because it escalated in some bars the last days in very violent death for many Russians –
Artillery is the third highest monthly loss in the war, third highest for killed barbarians and the highest number ever as an addition to the figures I reported the other day.
Together with ATH in special equipment, the losses the barbarians have taken during January 2024 are absolutely enormous.
Anyone who is a bit quicker can quickly see that it is ranged weapons that have worked overtime in January and one might wonder how that adds up now that Ukraine apparently has no ammunition left at all according to the collective media assessment?
Slingshot?
One is absolutely exhausted by this war now and really has to give Ukraine all the respect for having the endurance, tolerance, and maintained capability they have – many countries would have thrown in the towel already.
It has been a long time since we were upset about the desecrated and then tortured and murdered little children but it continues with undiminished strength.
I usually nag about the story below from time to time and there are always some who feel that I sully the thread with vivid stories about murdered and desecrated little children, it sucked the joy out of the day.
It was even worse than that in Bucha, they had hunting safaris with children 😲
https://x.com/cynlandns/status/1752751002652905817?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
There is reason to believe that the barbarians will leave bloody streets behind when they retreat because that is how they have acted so far and Enerhodar they will do whatever they manage.
UA prisoners of war are far from all alive, they have been tortured, desecrated, mutilated and starved to death so the number Ukraine has is an overestimate.
It is easy to forget this and above all RU will want to return to a normal state as if nothing happened as soon as this is over but the West should be as long-suffering as a bison because this is too big a transgression to be repeated.
Letting children run away only to then hunt them in a hunting safari is probably only surpassed by the Chechens who rape, torture and murder a nine-month-old baby in front of its mother, it is truly exceptional and had it happened in Sweden it would have been on the front pages for a long time.
And in Ukraine this has been going on for two years with undiminished strength.
Bucha was moreover right at the beginning of the war so nothing that crept in due to some brutalization of the war but it was sanctioned and encouraged by the commanders who received orders about it from above.
In the long run, this is what my colleague and nemesis the Peruvian defends. I have tried a few times to bring up these examples but either he says Ukraine is worse or that it is made up.
Yesterday was an absolutely massive liberation-bomb-quilt over Crimea, oblasts and high-value targets deep in Russia 💥
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kkbyyuxqnu2g
Since Ukraine does not send off 300 missiles against kindergartens and parks, a large number of high-value targets were hit yesterday, it must sting badly.
Stefpalm posted Accentmannen who did not disappoint us. When I usually talk about the world’s best infantry there is always pushback but what do you think about UA’s month-long missile campaign?
Quite legendary-level, right 😀
https://youtu.be/LTcXeda196E?si=7B0A-r6WgabsD_xL
Apparently UA knocked out the accommodation for all the pilots at Belbek airfield so the number of planes is secondary, 20 pilots is probably even worse than losing 20 planes.
https://x.com/raging545/status/1752772233343213583?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I guess Ukraine has about a dozen brigades that are completely resting and training, some were formed in summer 2023 and have had half a year to train and others that were pulled from the fronts months ago and some are relatively newly established.
This is UA’s strategic offensive reserve which is resourced and rested.
At the fronts there are brigades that have rotated out and brigades generally fight with one or two battalions at a time and the rest resting so there is offensive capacity at various fronts among existing units.
Exactly how materiel is distributed is very difficult to keep track of but we know that territorials have been mechanized to some extent which means they have many armored vehicles.
There is reason to believe that this offensive reserve is motorized and mechanized with support from tanks, maybe a battalion resource with a platoon. Probably not less but maybe more heavy materiel than that.
For example, existing units at the Dnieper can go for a breakthrough and when the command sees cracks beginning to appear among the confused and slowly fleeing Russians, the strategic reserve is added to widen the breakthrough and go deep together with existing units. Suddenly the Russians discover they are fighting new brigades they had not accounted for. Strategic reserves are good and they are tangible and Ukraine can move them within a few days to any front since they sit on the inside of a U-shaped front line.
On the battlefield Ukraine dominates totally, some mech company trying to take an objective is wiped out in its entirety with FPV drones and everything is filmed – they don’t even get close to firing a shot against the defense systems.
https://x.com/challengerinua/status/1752784069019029643?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Then the Russians continue to knock out decoys which only become more realistic now with active radar in an Iris T LV system.
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1752851083905441945?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Famous last words from China, they have Evergrande to think about here and a very slack line to balance on. If the West gets the idea to start an economic war against China, the house of cards will probably collapse quite quickly considering Evergrande is just the tip of the iceberg.
I read a few years ago that securities for bank loans had been used up to ten times and in case of defaults suddenly ten creditors were fighting over the same collateral. Which could be a warehouse with lots of metal or similar.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1752762805273399786?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
As we wrote in the thread earlier, a sunk destroyer is one mistake away and here it was really close.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1752790746141213006?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Now I think everyone has learned that when Budanov speaks you listen attentively, right 😀
Budanov lets it be known that Russian infrastructure supporting the war will be destroyed in 2024.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kkdh5qt5h22j
This is how big an explosion the drone that “missed” the refinery in St Petersburg yesterday caused.
https://x.com/tendar/status/1752619969215422849?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
An example of many of domestic UA production of weapons and ammunition.
https://x.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1752628409371406435?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
A million drones during 2024 sounds about right – they will run out of targets quite quickly.
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/12/19/ukraine-produce-million-drones/#google_vignette
UA manages the winter on UA-produced gas alone.
https://x.com/kyivindependent/status/1752634987726156161?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Losses in BMP distributed by model.
https://x.com/verekerrichard1/status/1752787755858325619?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The f
irst frozen Russian funds have now landed in Ukraine – more should follow as it is presumably now legally unlocked?
A fairly strong signal to the siloviki one must say.
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1752653201789042791?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
If anyone thought there was a chance for peace in Ukraine, a few days after showing willingness for a ceasefire and eternal peace (but keeping territory), Putin has now announced that the buffer zone in all conquered territories will be increased – his words have a shorter shelf life than a mayfly 🤣
https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1752732408661614629?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
It is hard to deny that this year’s Russian rocket barrage is over 90% shot down while Russia’s oil industry burns and bleeds.
It is also hard to deny that Ukraine is conducting local offensives everywhere and that the Russian counterparts get stuck far before their attack goals in veritable swarms of drones.
Do you remember the threat from the Russian rocket barrage dangled in front of us early autumn and the media was terrified?
Russian losses have absolutely skyrocketed since early autumn and January is among the busiest months ever in post-dead Russians and burnt-out equipment.
Putin has quite a serious problem on his hands here that he will not get rid of, simply the wrong wasp’s nest to poke.
It will be a true pleasure to see the Russians stand and sob loudly at the UN and beg to at least keep Moscow.
The election is probably starting to feel like a very bad idea, peak arrogance.