2024-01-31 -

13:47 – Johan No.1

Got stuck in a meeting, good morning kyrrasiärer.

I think UA’s local (and small) offensives are becoming more numerous here, an exponentially increasing curve?
The weather is awful now, hovering around zero and wet on the ground with alternating sun and rain – perfect for sucking the will to live out of the trench Russians.
That kind of weather is among the worst to be in the field in, and you have to give UA credit that they are quite tough to maintain combat effectiveness for long periods.

It is now and for a few months ahead that the Russians’ combat effectiveness will be at its worst here and (all of the West’s) SOF are probably operating around, but larger movements would affect the Russian will to fight enormously, I think.
Now they have some spruce branches in the trench and a fluttering plastic bag on a stick as an umbrella, so they manage barely, but if they have to get up and move in this weather, it could get quite lively.

I remember some exercise where I got those left over as a half-platoon of infantry and did lots of fire ambushes, and the reserve captain who was an old infantryman recognized it and started sending us everywhere, only he didn’t understand that we didn’t have vehicles.
After a couple of days of running between fire ambushes in better weather than in UA, there was a mutiny.

When it’s time to move again for retreat, the Russians will discover that half of the vehicles won’t start as usual and many units will be forgotten or receive their orders too late.

They are a bit like lizards in the sunshine, right now they barely manage to move because they are cold-blooded and now cooled down, so they can’t keep up with rapid movements at all.

The increasing activity from Ukraine, which is “reconnaissance fighting” or local offensives, naturally happens with the purpose of finding weak points.
If they manage to retake a larger area south of Horlivka, which is the old ceasefire line, it indicates that the Russians are by no means strong everywhere, right?

The partisans, or ATESH, also seem to have been activated across the entire area and they contribute to the uncertainty SOF creates, so even units at rest need to watch their backs and no roads are safe.
Russian reconnaissance or SOF capabilities have been in sharp decline for quite some time as they have been used as offensive reserves and depleted.
UA’s equivalent can be guessed to have increased significantly during the course of the war and are numerous and working on the tasks they are intended for.

It’s hard to stay away from Russian subversive activities. Now the crafty Russians have been caught pushing very hard for Catalonia’s liberation by wanting to give 500 billion USD and military support – so it’s a civil war they have in mind.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kk7ciujfji2c

– We know they are fueling all conflicts in Africa now – see which countries Wagner is in.
– Then we have good reason to believe they were behind October 7.
– And it is very likely they have gotten Iran to increase the pace here, Houthi, the attack on Pakistan and all attacks on US bases in MENA.
– They are trying to use the migration weapon in the USA to create conflicts between the federal government and the states.

Between times when I try to describe Russian subversive activities, there are always a couple who write that “yes, they do a lot but they can’t possibly do that” or that “that is extrapolating too far.”

I think it’s the opposite – the Russians are engaged in more shady activities than we know.

There was a fun discussion yesterday about those who do Russia’s bidding – they get money, everyone understands that, but Russia also treats them like gods when they visit Russia – state banquets and formal events with the entire honor guard in parade uniform.
Then after a while they become rock stars in their home countries too because they push popular issues that concern many.
So from having nothing, they have money and rock star status.
Apparently, they usually get to go to Dubai as well with all the extras that entails, and in many cases, they meet the love of their life at one of all the banquets who are really interested in exactly what the person is passionate about.
I understand that many choose this because the issues they push are often not entirely shameless – in the case of Nigel Farage, there was broad dissatisfaction with the EU and the West has managed its legacy pretty poorly over the last 20 years.

Then they bring in money they could only have dreamed of, get confirmation from important people (in the Russian sphere) and have gone from the perpetual single to a life partner they could only have dreamed of.
What I think we need is for the media to do their job and start exposing these people – it should damn well feel like going foreign power’s errands to destabilize Sweden and not just be super fun.
The media have previously had zero qualms about character assassinating all sorts of people, so they can surely make an effort for the country Sweden for once.
Before you hit the emergency stop – I mean those who can be proven to have let themselves be entertained around and have proven contacts with Russian handlers or have been paid.
Serious journalists know their investigative work and when they have enough to go on.

You shouldn’t do what the media often does, act on loose rumors so the persons in question take their lives and then post a half apology that the person probably misunderstood everything and that they themselves are the victim in all this.
Yes, a bit controversial but these are new times and children are tortured and murdered daily in Ukraine because these people very effectively slow down all Western support to the country and live well on it – traveling merchants of death.

On the subject of influence operations, we had a fairly intense period of decolonization that washed over the West recently and every politician knows that if you want to keep your job you don’t step into it (at all).
Then Wagner came big in Africa and now Russia has more formally established itself in Central Africa but is present in about half of all countries in Africa.
The most fragile states in the world with a history of bloody civil wars and Russia wants to bring back bloody civil wars, refugee flows, plundering of natural resources and runaway corruption.
The rebel leader in Niger asks Germany to keep quiet because Europe has only contributed slavery and plundering of Africa, so that he can continue slavery and plundering of Niger together with Russia.
99.9% of all politicians in the West will back down from such statements for quite a long time.
-well played russiad…
https://x.com/sprinter99800/status/1752101581690933472?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Ukraine made a sensational statement the other day – if the West stops giving support, we will increase liberation actions in Russia correspondingly and Russia has no chance to defend itself.
So they give the West a choice here – very clever.

Fun that they can escalate from knocking out the entire oil industry and turning off the lights in half of the regions – sounds very violent and good.
Just in the last few days, there have surely been explosions in five substations causing the water to freeze and cascading effects.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1752406701528006882?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

The cyber battalion keeps fighting with their Jolt Cola and sweaty t-shirts – this should not be underestimated at all.
https://x.com/tendar/status/1752381363129360738?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

A prioritized RU brigade – 810 marine infantry has unmodified T55s, yes, things are going well now (not).
https://x.com/tendar/status/1752381363129360738?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

That RU offensives are going terribly is indisputable, how many strategic reserves they have left is unclear, at least half are gone.
-Ukraine’s small local offensives are sharply increasing – we hear more and more.
-The liberation acts against the oil industry continue – the West has not issued yellow cards.
-The liberation acts in “operation turn off the lights” are in full swing with several substations blown up in a few days.
-The West (except the USA) affirms its support for Ukraine.
-The Glide bombs have arrived.
-They come with Storm Shadow.
-Taurus is not far away.
-Hundreds of new tanks from Morocco and Kuwait.
-Germany has hundreds of IFVs (old BMPs apparently) on the way.
-France contributes with artillery.
-The EU contributes 1.3 million 155mm shells.
-F-16s are on the way.
-Bulgaria has promised to start sending much more and they have huge amounts of materiel.
-Greece opens its stockpiles.
-UA will receive funds from the EU both frozen and grants so they can start contracts on new weapons.
-Domestic production in Ukraine has increased enormously.
-Russian new production is a joke, the oil industry is dying and the country is blacked out.
-We are heading towards a very exciting 2024 to say the least 😀

It is actually hard not to be -positive-positive- when Putin is supposed to have his new election in 1.5 months, worst idea ever and he will regret it immensely.