2024-02-03

10:13 – Johan No.1

The great war of our time has entered yet another year and it is still hanging in the balance between being stamped out or going global. Notably, Putin has failed badly with his global escalation, H…asks for snorkels where they drown trapped in the tunnels but get none from Putin.

If one is to be -positive-positive- then Putin’s time in power is probably over a month or two after the election but of course we will see. This should become completely untenable quite soon but it is the bubble list that one is not allowed to predict outcomes on and it was never brought up in the committee to change that.

Then naturally comes the question of what happens to all the copies 😀 I thought the Japanese were serious about their facial recognition and they found two besides the original. They can’t have three thrashing pinhatas at the gas station so they’ll probably have to execute the other two in some backyard so it doesn’t become a total farce.
“Putin is dead, long live the emperor (Patrushev)” and then a groggy Putin shows up at some event in Moscow at the same time and happily downs a glass of champagne unaware that he has three hours left to live.

The curve of liberated barbarians has been sharply increasing since around the turn of the year 2022/2023.
When I jump between days and months it gets a bit funny because since the turn of the year 2022/2023 many weapon types have been increasing but looking at days there were higher spikes at the start of the war.
I think it was then periods when they got at column movements and other fun stuff with calm periods in between but that since early 2023 they have started introducing a daily high capability with drones and indirect fire that provides an even carpet of daily death with high monthly results?

Hard to explain it any other way and this new fun capability to strike deep presumably will not fall to drones and they have enough winged grenades.
Since Ukraine is as they are there is a chance to increase even more – the sky is the limit for everyone except the sour Russian in his half water-filled pit who hasn’t been paid in half a year and whose chain-smoking wife has stopped answering telegrams.

They really got at the artillery in earnest when the spring offensive started and have maintained this until now – they found something that simply works. Probably artillery radar and mobile batteries against RU almost stationary or slowly regrouping artillery with dying artillery radar.

Simply put, the Russians knocked themselves out in the first half year at the start of the invasion but then had a fairly long period where losses in many weapon systems were moderate and they presumably managed to top up quite a bit. However, they panicked and the famous T62 battalions made their entrance.

Now it’s a completely different animal because the monthly losses are so high that they can’t possibly maintain capability at the fronts exposed – impossible to staff 750 functioning artillery units in the organization in one month.
If Ukraine manages to hold or increase the level it should mean that RU capability falls in UA month by month going forward as well.

What we now see at Avdiivka is a new CAA (probably) pushed forward by half of the strategic reserves left if we go by what we have heard about newer tanks seen in the area. They are presumably dipping into the strategic reserves because the existing units in the area are worn out.

I understand that Putin is floating lots of ceasefire proposals because his command desperately needs a period of recovery here but second best for Putin is lots of offensives until the election so he has something to bask in.

We should probably keep an eye on which representatives in the West, or opinion shapers in the West for that matter, will increasingly think it is important to have a ceasefire in Ukraine to save the children going forward.

In my dark moments I sit and wonder if the USA has slow-walked this to be able to start selling their contracts on weapons platforms as we see rolling out now.
The EU still seems mostly interested in strengthening their own armed forces and bolstering Ukraine but the USA has recently moved from support to enormous arms sales to various countries.
An “alterior motive” as Agatha Christie would have said and some might be long-suffering 🧐

If you have seen today’s Accent Man you also have the answer to why “20 shot down missiles” gives 20 knocked out targets every time.
He goes through how UA first shoots decoys which LV shoots down and exposes themselves, then comes HAARM (and probably guided ammunition and drones) and when they either regroup, turn off radar or get knocked out the strike with live missiles comes.
So the Russians aren’t lying but they only knock out all the decoys – a win-win simply.
https://youtu.be/kh5ecYbONTs?si=FaQg5KwmyFGYMYCK

The miracle at Vuhledar seems to be repeating but something new has happened – the Russians are extremely critical of how the command has handled those attacks. Just wait until Avdiivka starts again and then the next blow from Ukraine.

I’m still quite surprised that Western media have latched onto the Zelensky – Zalizhny split as much as they have. I have long felt that a couple of big media houses in the USA constantly jump on everything and then run their own versions where they extrapolate enormously far on rumors from “anonymous sources” (FSB) and then suddenly it becomes front-page news in Europe because CNN, NYT, WAPO or someone else ran a long report they cooked up out of nothing.
Just so everyone understands, Zalizhny is full of revenge lust after the spring offensive and it rubs off on the army – they want to win the war.

Don’t forget that we have a couple of symbolically important dates ahead – the anniversary of the war, Putin’s fateful election, and Victory Day May 9. Previously Ukraine wasn’t allowed to do anything fun, they have confirmed themselves that they weren’t allowed to jump on the parade last year, but 2024 is the year they get to do exactly what they want in Russia’s country.

Also don’t forget that Ukraine has been busy building a couple of long-range capabilities we haven’t seen yet – if you have done as you should and listened when Budanov speaks you know this.
Western missiles are fun but Ukraine now has its own missiles with long range.

The overkill on the oil industry continues unabated – now they have shot down a drone in Volgograd and then there was a huge technical failure with accompanying oil fires and production stoppage at the facility.
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1753663230050807925?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

I think Ukraine has now struck 7-8 of the largest oil terminals, refineries, and tank farms?
Every time it’s “they missed” but after a few days we get confirmation that there have been huge fires and it will take at least months to repair.
The more that are knocked out the greater the competition will be for the repairers and the equipment, right?

According to what I read earlier, there are 64 oil terminals but the 5-8 largest are the ones now targeted by environmentally friendly liberation acts aimed at countering the colonization of indigenous peoples.
Just the terminal in St Petersburg accounted for 20% of exports, so it’s not unreasonable to believe that we are looking at well over a 50% reduction in export or refining capacity, and the curve is exponentially increasing (or decreasing if you prefer).

There is a kicker – Ukraine has just taken out the largest fuel depot in Donbass, and it’s not unreasonable to think that the Russians might run out of fuel too – all fuel depots have been logged as targets previously.
Without fuel, no maintenance at all.

These are absolutely huge figures in terms of lost export and refining capacity, and I am always surprised that Western media doesn’t blow this up more. It goes both ways – when the Russians get their psyops out in the West, it circulates at home as confirmation that it’s true, but news like this also circulates in Russia and is taken as truth.

This was definitely something I thought Russia would try with the EU, but apart from transmission cables and that attack on the LNG terminal, it has been pretty quiet this winter. Western intelligence services might have worked as intended this year, and we’ll have to start counting bodies in nuclear power plant cooling ponds this summer when water levels drop?
At least they managed to prevent a large number of terror attacks on our Christmas celebrations, so they didn’t have a Christmas break.

This one is a bit funny, the other day we were just philosophizing that access to drones can’t be a problem for Ukraine because you can use 3D printers, and as if on cue, this came along showing the manufacturing with 3D printers. A million drones sounds like a lot, but if they have hundreds of companies 3D printing tens of thousands of drones, you get there pretty quickly.
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1753557800406462969?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

What’s so exciting about the drones is that they are guided munitions with the best possible accuracy that don’t require an expensive platform for launch and aren’t exclusively manufactured by BAE Systems at an overpriced production line. A bit like sharpened pitchforks that worked perfectly against cavalry.
It’s clear that Ukraine has gone very broad with the drone units, they exist in large numbers, are fully integrated into the organization, and have functioning maintenance chains.

Today, in some places, they are completely dominant and have air superiority, but FAB500 and FAB1500 bombs have not yet been completely denied, so the goal is not achieved.
Then we also saw that UA struck the drone factory for the Lancet drones so production plummeted – smart warfare, simply 😀
And then they start hitting drone groups or training camps for drone operators – they have come so far that they have started targeting RU’s own drone capability.

Gregg seems to agree with some in the thread that offensive preparations are underway again – pre-emptive strikes and offensive reserves, and that’s good.

Now presumably the supplied strategic reserve, whichever CAA that is, at Avdiivka will carry out their pointless attacks and Röpcke will scream about a few streets lost for a month, presumably?
Hard to find much else as everyone wants to talk about Lukoil on fire today.

We don’t know if the description below of how Orban was handled is accurate, but if it is, it shows that the EU also has a limit and that when it is exceeded, the EU will collectively solve the problem in the way the EU deems best. This completely shatters the Russian narrative that the EU is like a defenseless little child that can be destroyed through aggressive subversive activity – the EU just showed its teeth.
https://x.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1753652001953501260?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Guess why Fico suddenly sharpened up, he has a slightly faster understanding of the situation than Orban.

It is also a new situation as I described above in the security situation in Europe, you all remember those spectacular terror attacks a few years ago but now at Christmas when the Russians really put everything in, there was nothing. We received news in rounds of many foiled terror attacks against high masses and Christmas markets.

If I may guess, I think they will start cleaning up a bit more going forward but this was the most urgent, the beginning of a new era, hard times breed strong men and all that.

For the observant, there have also been huge demonstrations in Serbia and Slovakia as well as demonstrations against AfD in Germany. Hungary has had waves of protests but right now it seems calm?
It’s way too early to shout “trend” but little by little they have started nibbling at the Russian black construction of subversive activity in the EU.

-positive-positive thus, the dismantling of the oil industry continues undisturbed, the pre-emptive strikes are astronomical and the Russians’ attacks continue to fail with 100% death.

The only thing missing is that local UA offensives become somewhat larger and they recapture something that stings for Putin.

12:13 – MatsExtrude

Thanks!👍