13:15 – MatsExtrude
👍 Thanks!
The information about the artillery is really positive. When it comes to barrels, I do believe they may have (had) individual barrels lying in stock so they didn’t have to cannibalize from the start, but I guess that is probably happening now.
They are admittedly not afraid of NATO but they can hardly dare to completely empty the stocks. Just as we in the West have woken up and realized that much more of, for example, ammunition is needed, Russia has probably also realized that huge amounts of materiel are going to be used up.
13:35 – Johan No.1
Since 215,000 have stopped responding on Telegram and 50,000 have been confirmed buried by relatives, then (if the rebels and all dead prisoners who no one looks for are ignored) the ratio of wounded vs dead would be
265,000 dead and 66,000 wounded?
I think the wounded ratio is still a bit under 1:2, I adjusted it a while ago.
So I double the daily loss figure and that is my total.
13:51 – Johan No.1
They mainly have no capability to produce new gun barrels if I remember correctly.
13:55 – Johan No.1
When Ukraine invaded Russia there was such a strong reaction from the West that Ukraine refrained.
The West had previously said they did not accept Ukraine sending its units there so Ukraine tried to be smart and sent in ethnic Russians and Belarusians but that was not accepted either.
After a raid or two it was stopped.
When Ukraine attacked the oil terminal in Novorossiysk, Zelensky himself announced that many Western countries called and said stop.
All this can be googled so yes, the West has prevented Ukraine from taking the war to Russia until 2024.
Of course, Ukraine can do as they want anyway but presumably the support has been used as leverage?
14:02 – Johan No.1
Posting here as well – it is in the nuances I think the difference lies. Yes, Ukraine has carried out some raids into Russia with helicopters and other means but…
Budanov informed us that they were not allowed to do anything fun on May 9 last year, right?
It wouldn’t have been very difficult to do a drone strike over the parade.
When Ukraine invaded Russia there was such a strong reaction from the West that Ukraine refrained.
The West had previously said they did not accept Ukraine sending its units there so Ukraine tried to be smart and sent in ethnic Russians and Belarusians but that was not accepted either.
After a raid or two it was stopped.
When Ukraine attacked the oil terminal in Novorossiysk, Zelensky himself announced that many Western countries called and said stop.
All this can be googled so yes, the West has prevented Ukraine from taking the war to Russia until 2024.
Of course, Ukraine can do as they want anyway but presumably the support has been used as leverage?
Then I think it speaks for itself that it is UA drones in Russia and SS down in Crimea?
14:09 – Johan No.1
The Belgians were really pissed that UN peacekeepers were used during the invasion of Russia (Belgorod).
There is much we do not know, but UA themselves have told us a couple of times that the West protested, and then it’s enough to just look now and then, right?
Novorossiysk – one attack then stop.
Belgorod raids – 1-2 raids then stop.
Oil-war 2024 – they are methodically knocking out Russia’s oil industry, 1-2 terminals per week.
For me, this actually means that no one calls Zelensky anymore to threaten with withdrawing everything if they continue. Especially since Macron, Scholz, and Sunak have simultaneously come out and promised huge weapons packages.
All this can be googled, so I consider it well enough grounded to write like this 😀
I boil things like this down to a statement but have always posted the information supporting it in previous posts.
14:12 – MatsExtrude
But there is still basically a stop from the USA right now (which I suspect has been the biggest brake), so it’s probably a good opportunity to take advantage.. 🙂
14:18 – Johan No.1
Zelensky has said it, this kind of thing is notoriously complicated because we post when it is said and then people have read it but if someone comes after two months with a “source please” you can never pull it up 😀
He quotes UP but can’t find more, Zelensky’s statement was in another interview where he mentioned it.
https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/18vyrgm/up_the_day_after_the_attack_on_novorossiysk/
14:19 – Johan No.1
Yep, one can reasonably suspect that the USA has been the biggest brake and now that they have stopped delivering equipment they have nothing left to threaten with – this IS a guess, we haven’t read anything about it yet.
14:23 – Johan No.1
It’s interesting but since we discuss a huge range of information every day and post day after day, it’s impossible to do this seriously with sources and saving links. For my part, I would have had to limit myself considerably so the method has become to evaluate sources and if it’s information you believe in – post it and discuss it and weave it together.
However, everything that is said has been posted once with a link before.
Have tried several times to find information again and it’s completely hopeless – can’t manage to find it in my own posts, made a serious attempt to post the big campaign plan again when questions came but gave up after a lot of searching.
14:28 – Johan No.1
Good grief what a mess and it’s 2024 😐
We have gone through –
-Russian new production of equipment which is non-existent.
-what remains in the depots and it’s not very much.
-that the oil industry is burning, the 6-7 largest export terminals and refineries are knocked out.
Does Cvejman even read the news?
And then the classic – “according to anonymous sources” and then he extrapolates almost all the way to an imminent civil war.
14:57 – Johan No.1
Possibly it is the new CAA now conducting offensive operations in Avdiivka, the T90s and BMP2-3s we got information about.
They are about 15,000 strong as previous units or something?
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1754107800593002530?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
15:15 – Johan No.1
Zelensky has visited Robotyne 😳
https://x.com/ukraine_map/status/1754125993495671197?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
12:40 – Johan No.1
As usual, almost everything has been covered by a night shift and an early-rising blog, so for my own archive 😀
I have a thought about how it might have happened when the West dropped the demand that Ukraine should not take the war to Russia.
Zelensky went out beforehand and promised “an eye for an eye” if the Russians tried another missile barrage.
First came a huge strike against the infrastructure for grain and retaliation in Ukraine, then a 300-missile strike + 600 Shaheds, and around that Ukraine took the war to Russia’s oil industry.
It might be that Zelensky, in his eternal bargaining with the morally superior West, got them to agree that IF Russia, against all odds, which they surely promised the West not to do, launched hundreds of missiles, then UA would retaliate against everything including the oil industry. The rest is history, including quite a bit of Russia’s oil infrastructure.
Yesterday’s blog 19:54 update from BBC – about 215,000 missing being searched for and 50,000 having had their funerals, that makes 265,000.
You are considered missing when you no longer check in on Telegram?
Then we add all the mobilized prisoners who are missing by no one, right, those who die first every day.
And the DPR and LPR units that presumably were not included here?
Then we are not far from Ukraine’s figures and that these are deceased – proven now and the discussion can be closed?
The wounded and sick can keep in touch and are therefore not missing.
Extremely interesting figures on RU artillery from Covert Cabal that Viktor posted yesterday in the thread,
All models of self-propelled artillery have decreased by 44% and all models of towed artillery have decreased by 54% in what they can see on satellite photos.
The total number of self-propelled was 4,450 and towed 14,631, which means that the total number of towed artillery taken from the bases is enormously larger than self-propelled.
One might guess that of the 2,961 self-propelled remaining, many have technical faults that are difficult to fix?
I believe Covert Cabal has included that if gun barrels are missing, they are listed; there has been quite a lot of cannibalization of gun barrels but many of those satellite images of the bases were too unclear for him to see that, so this time not excluded.
https://youtu.be/FozvYM2Zhpw?si=m1Ikmy94ZzhmHgTM
If we do this very simple math homework again – RU loses around 700 artillery pieces per month and has 9,747 left, so that’s 9747/700 – about a year’s supply of artillery left.
Now that didn’t match with the tanks that were supposed to run out in July 2023 according to someone in the thread who writes too much, because losses fluctuate and the fewer that remain, the harder they are to knock out as they are better protected by RU.
19,063 before the war started and 9,747 left in the bases – a difference of 9,613, right.
Since RU has lost 9,274 artillery systems and the limitation is presumably how many can be deployed, maybe the loss figures are not so enormously speculative because 9,274 + 9,747 is 19,021 and very close to the 19,063 that were in the bases at the start of the war, we have proven that the losses Ukraine reports are fairly close to the truth now 😀
Moreover, the figures were in some cases from October and since then RU has lost around 2,000, so chances are it’s even better than this.
How large a percentage of these are cannibalized for gun barrels and parts is quite hard to determine but that this war is eating into Russia’s enormous stockpile of weapons is indisputable – add 30% with technical faults and they have about half a year’s consumption of artillery left in the barns.
Russia CANNOT wage this war indefinitely, it is very clear because their new production is laughably small.
If then the number of artillery pieces might not be inflated and speculative, maybe IFVs aren’t either?
Found one three months ago about IFVs (all with splinter protection included) –
Since then they have lost 3,000, it should be added.
The first thing you think when you see the satellite images is that pre-war they stood in rows and now they are picked out in the ranks, which suggests they have taken out those that can be completed fastest first, right?
There are a total of 8,917 splinter-protected vehicles in the bases, of which 3,677 are BMPs.
Same here, losses around 700 per month so 8917/700 – one year’s consumption left.
Here I am quite sure you have to subtract about 30% or so and then not forget those 3,000.
I am missing a base inventory from satellite images of splinter-protected vehicles pre-war, does anyone have that?
The Russians’ official figures are uninteresting and I found nothing at Covert Cabal but a summary on Wikipedia gave 17,570.
That means losses of about 11,792 roughly correspond to the decrease, but satellite images would have been better.
While Russian artillery has decreased by 50%, Western artillery has decreased by a few percent of what is in the barns – this is significant because it clearly shows that the myth that the Russians have inexhaustible stockpiles and such large new production that the West has no chance is exactly that – a Russian influence operation that surprisingly many seem to accept as truth. It comes up in the thread from time to time that “quantity is quality in itself” but if you no longer have the quantity, that argument falls pretty flat, right?
Tucker Carlson gets the red carpet treatment in Russia and then presumably heads off to Dubai. It’s dizzying that the US’s most popular TV program was paid Russian psyops.
https://x.com/kasparov63/status/1753918388051865651?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Only AP has received 75 million SEK to write climate-critical articles – how much have all received in total?
And who has paid, environmental organizations have no money?
https://x.com/stjartan/status/1753850445217275991?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Very exciting actually, a formal petition in Russia regarding ensuring that Putin’s copy does not become president 😲
https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1753879305484947483?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And even more exciting, the 104th AAD, the new division set up around an AAB and sent to the Dnipro front some time ago, apparently refuses war.
The 328th is a regiment in the division so there is some risk that this has been extrapolated to the whole division when it is a regiment, but it seems to be a newly formed AAD unit that refuses war.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kkk56izhfs24
Then, if possible, even more interesting, serious protests against the war from “soldiers’ wives” in Moscow.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kkjfjqqesc2s
Surprisingly much is happening right now that is bad for Putin everywhere – the overall situation makes one start to wonder if the countdown has quietly begun.
We sit and guess and listen, and guess and slap on probabilities with completely wild conclusions but one should be clear that decisions in decision-making positions must also be made on grounds that before the war were really quite wrong. They were wrong because we have the answers today but those who tried to raise it too early were brought down.
It’s quite easy as a decision-maker to conclude that you do nothing when it is uncharted territory ahead and no one knows how it will turn out – never fun when your career is at stake.
The nuclear threat has probably played a role and as Surtrutn wrote, there was concern about it but presumably now that UA has shown they can take down nuclear carriers, that concern is gone – the EU becomes tougher.
However, I think that the collective West has largely been very wrong in this war and that it has now started to recalibrate itself quite well but still has to very realistically fight against Russian influence operations that slow everything down.
It is therefore very easy to sit and air what is going to happen and be upset that no one is doing anything when you yourself are not standing with the cameras in your face. A bit like when you play any WW2 computer game, replay until you win, and think you are a general – in reality, you get one chance and the risk is that you wipe out the unit you lead, every time.
That said, Ukraine has actually been completely right throughout the war, but the difficult part for them has been to get the West on board, except at the start of the war, and Zelensky will have to live with that. The high-ranking general in Germany and Macron promised him there would be no war and he probably didn’t want to escalate?
Here is the nail on the head about the arch-colonizer Russia,
https://x.com/realjakebroe/status/1753491040915583096?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
For those of us who have listened to Budanov, we know that there will be summary executions and shots in the back of the head for all war criminals until all war criminals are dead. A dead pilot in Engels is therefore not an isolated incident but part of GUR’s campaign to prosecute and convict war criminals. It probably doesn’t hurt to go after high-value targets first.
https://x.com/friaukraina/status/1753764496152096813?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
That HIMARS attack on the café in Lysychansk was apparently some lunch or meeting with lots of high-ranking military officials according to unconfirmed rumors.
https://x.com/raging545/status/1753809980015235547?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Operation turn off the lights has turned off (half of) Belgorod
https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1753864789141385369?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I agree with David D and it is Iran that should be warned, not doing something that looks like something for the West.
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1753955485974143395?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
First they warn which targets will be cut so all personnel have time to evacuate and then they have struck some high-value and lots of insignificant ones and Iran thinks it’s fun.
A big difference compared to Houthi where they go after their capability.
A suitable operation would have been the signals intelligence ship and the two escorts in the Red Sea that provide targeting data to the Houthi anti-ship missile batteries.
When Iran started shooting missiles at Pakistan and attacking civilian shipping in the Red Sea, Iran became a threat that must be handled, and this is not how you handle that threat at all, F grade.
Ukraine is a master of everything now including negotiations – the latest offer “a trillion dollars” in reparations from Russia.
https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1753501439953944669?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
If Russia thinks they still have bargaining chips left, it actually means they have something to negotiate about right now – leave to the 1991 borders and maybe you can get a deal with Western help where they use EU membership as leverage.
The question is if Ukraine wants that but the West can force them, but… this bargaining chip disappears quickly and then you just have to accept what happens.
The West will not lift sanctions unless The Hague gets its extradition, money is paid, retreat and so on.
Ukraine will decolonize Russia completely on its own – they simply have no reason to stop and if they can defend their country and take the war to Russia to save the last of the world’s threatened indigenous peoples, they will do it for the good of humanity – they are good people, simply.
For those of us who have listened to Budanov, it has long been crystal clear what they have planned and they are well on their way to succeeding when the West’s red boundary line was removed.
-positive-positive on a Sunday morning – the slippery slope for Putin is getting more and more slippery.