11:39 – Johan No.1
The Lions
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1754947283118948673?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
There are too few days in February now, but otherwise the month could have ranked high in several categories since RU intends to launch offensive operations broadly again – it looks extremely promising in the grilled BTG branch (quite funny that the Russians went from BTG to some kind of offensive combat groups that got the right equipment for brigades that seem to be around 1000 strong and get the available materiel).
We are now back to the situation we had earlier in the war before the West’s deadly support packages started, UA is (according to Gregg) short on LV, they are very short on artillery ammunition, and because of that, RU has gained a foothold in Avdiivka, so losses will now increase sharply for UA.
They are trying to bridge with drones, but it is cloudy.
However, Ukraine has fought like this before; having a period of superiority in indirect capabilities and being able to save many lives was apparently a parenthesis that the West did not like, but they did not give up then, and they are not throwing in the towel now either.
Since the West for some unfathomable reason has decided to take away Ukraine’s advantage on the battlefield, it is good that they have removed most red lines for attacks on Russia; if we could reach the point where Western missiles can be fired at militarily important targets in Russia, it would be appreciated.
It has been a while since we discussed this, but Russia has already lost because their technology is vastly inferior to the West’s in all categories – all nuclear carriers can be shot down, UA shoots down 90% of missile attacks while Western missiles strike targets in prioritized areas with a forest of Russian LV, as we usually write.
If you watch the video below, it is proof of this, a Russian S300 battery just watching storm shadows sweep by and some swearing. Russian technology is simply inferior, and they are completely hopeless against the West. Guess if China is wondering how their technology would fare…
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kkr5dimqgt22
I have gotten the impression that UA has gradually managed to remove RU radar coverage over Ukraine and that is why RU mainstay started flying closer and got shot down.
That means LV batteries get shorter warning times, and then it looks like this, overflight and swearing.
So what is happening in Russia –
War-important industry continues to be targeted
https://x.com/anno1540/status/1755296152184934448?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Operation turn off the lights continues
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1755078601412886553?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
RU has paid absolute extortionate prices in gold for Shaheds, and UA can shoot them down with Patriot and still come out ahead.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kkrfa6ep3e2c
In 2024, production of Lynx and Fuchs IFV will begin in Ukraine, i.e., production of completely superior combat vehicles on site in Ukraine.
https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1755160671992385864?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
More CV90s are coming, unclear if it is support, purchase of used ones, or new production, but a good initiative.
https://x.com/oplatsen/status/1755189727643222262?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
See Perpetua’s ratio, 1:5 no more 😀
https://x.com/andrewperpetua/status/1755483770084315445?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I remember a discussion when I tried to raise that Ukrainian children are probably not adopted so much as they are subjected to trafficking and abuse. Quite a few thought it was painting the devil on the wall, but that was after Bucha and Irpin.
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1755234102024818797?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The Suvalki corridor and the Baltics are likely because there are 2000 former Wagner soldiers in Belarus training these armies now, and over time it will be a number to reckon with. It will not succeed now, but it is part of RU’s plan, and anyone who dismisses it has learned nothing.
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1754901619320168481?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I also want to highlight what we have discussed a couple of times now – RU is constantly at the UN complaining about all sorts of things but not a word about the sabotage acts against the oil industry. My interpretation is that it is too serious and system-threatening, so they keep completely silent – it stings accordingly.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1754988961120825721?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
It increasingly leans towards the sabotage acts in Russia deciding this, even if we do not get to predict outcomes from the bubble list. The ammunition shortage has made it so that Ukraine (possibly) cannot exploit another opportunity, and the election is around the corner. After the election, there will be another mobilization, and then the trenches will be filled again.
The easiest way to the goal is to continue knocking out the oil industry, continue operation turn off the lights, and increase the will among colonized indigenous peoples to regain their statutory freedom.
The latter was long seen as completely impossible, but that was only because the game was rigged in Putin’s favor and Ukraine was not allowed to take the war to Russia.
11:56 – Johan No.1
I have an alternative theory that I sometimes wonder if it could be true – there are capable men and women and there are terrible men and women.
Just as in an organization with a weak and morally slipping boss who wants weak yes-men under him, countries can go in the same direction and in good times there are always whole groups that start doing things that are fun instead of managing what they inherited from previous generations.
Israel is probably a pretty good example of strong men and women over a long time and where, before October 7, there were men and women in demonstrations all over the country demanding that I…el should shut down its defense forces and meet the world with flowers. Pretty sure those demonstrations stopped on October 8.
Good times breed weak men, weak men bring bad times, bad times breed strong men, strong men bring good times.
That’s usually how it’s written, it should of course say men/women or alternatively Hen, not entirely clear to me what the standard is today. Or if one should write LGBTQ2+ maybe, but that makes the whole expression a bit hard to read and there is some risk that it is read as if LGBTQ2+ is bad and then you don’t live long, so maybe best to stick to men but everyone knows what is meant, right?
13:10 – MatsExtrude
👍
13:22 – Johan No.1
It’s the same sphere that wanted Bakhmut to be abandoned when the battle for it was at its worst, so just because they paint everything in pitch black again doesn’t mean they are right.
Quite a lot is also already up for discussion – they think UA should cooperate with the West for more drones but UA has blown up the Lancet factory and then they are supposed to produce 1 million of their own drones in 2024. Which other country is even close to that?
They get top marks for understanding the value of a large number of shrapnel-protected vehicles that I keep nagging about 😀
Then they extrapolate hard on the spring offensive, I think UA will surprise as usual.
13:41 – MatsExtrude
The USA has totally collapsed and I am beginning to doubt that any solution will come.
Europe probably also lacks the will to double its efforts. Germany is on board, but that’s not enough.
Even though two years have passed, it seems they are not taking this seriously..
You can almost imagine that they are waiting for the USA and reasoning something like:
“If the USA is not going to give more support, it’s a waste for us to do it, because then it’s lost anyway.”
Exactly what the Russians are trying to get across.
Afraid it will probably be a matter of digging in for Ukraine and going defensive, while trying to strike deep into Russia. Then it’s just a matter of hoping that either Russia’s population has had enough and/or that the economy crashes completely.
I don’t really believe the former (although things are starting to move a bit), the latter is just a matter of time.
13:53 – Johan No.1
👍👍
13:59 – Johan No.1
I find it hard to believe that the attacking party in urban combat has the same losses as the defender and that it is 1:1.
However, RU artillery and now their damn FAB bombs have caused great damage but they do that anywhere UA is dug in and not moving.
If Bakhmut had been abandoned, the same ammunition would have rained down on the next area to be defended.
Bakhmut had a value as a flytrap but the purpose was naturally to get a breakthrough on the southern front which failed. However, UA has held Klishchiivka and dominant terrain north of it so RU is grinding down hard.
16:57 – Johan No.1
Good heavens, how things have picked up on Bluesky the last few days and that’s because you presumably no longer need to chase codes?
Fun that it is starting to become a fairly large (healthy) community there now as X is becoming increasingly unbearable to hang out on. I’m getting all sorts of provocative stuff now and am arguing with bots which is probably the absolute peak of wasting one’s time so feels almost time to quit…
18:06 – Johan No.1
Has Zalizhny resigned?
I know, just a guess
https://x.com/flash_news_ua/status/1755624469995896955?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
18:06 – Johan No.1
There’s quite a lot going on right now…
18:08 – Johan No.1
The curtain was pulled back for a second.
11:11 – Johan No.1
These are new times, I remember a USA that went to war with Christian rhetoric for the slightest thing (painting for effect) and today it is a domestic political playground whether to send surplus equipment that would knock out the Russian army directly without sacrificing own lives. 20 years ago, one would have had to hold tight on the leash for such a chance to retaliate for old grievances.
I also remember an EU shaken by terror attacks after terror attacks and now in times of increased subversive activity nothing happens – leading me to believe that if you work in security services, you had no Christmas vacation this year.
The tone in the debate is quite high in many countries now – if you had been around in 1968 you might recognize it. What I grew up with as right – wrong is completely turned upside down. Many of the issues are my pet issues that I am passionate about and that makes me upset and angry at other groups and that seems to be the case broadly right now. Why right now?
When the West needs to unite to clip the Russian wings, it becomes like any group project at school instead.
The question is how much of this high tone is “manufactured” and how much is natural. Established media jump on topics they think will get big traction on social media or that are “picked up” by other established media but if it is just planted and then lots of bots driving them, then it is probably entirely created, who knows.
Curious about what the Russians are attacking with in northern Avdiivka, is it the strategic reserve we heard about that has been moved there?
We have read about Chechens so maybe battalion-sized Chechen units, a new CAA and then a couple of Storm Z units from those remaining and some existing rebels?
Hard to believe they are running this without Storm Z and rebels.
What we hear nothing about is that they have moved forward VDV, Spetsnaz, naval infantry or reconnaissance to the area. Now these units are largely just shadows of their former selves but they have tended to pool these units earlier to prioritized areas.
One becomes completely tearful when watching Accentman’s video, 40 FAB500 bombs in some day and carpets of TOS-1 thermobaric ammunition 😐
https://youtu.be/a_4Kn8S_Qs4?si=plKB90LUXsSmZT-Y
LV and grenades for long-range weapons would have saved hundreds of lives in Avdiivka right now. Yes, they are buried but FAB are terrible weapons and TOS-1 fires them at active front lines where the defense is not sufficiently protected.
It annoys me incredibly that the West lets RU carry out a major offensive by deliberately causing Ukraine ammunition shortages 🤬
(before counter-comments read and consider – Spain, Portugal, NL and Belgium can send all their reserve ammunition today without it raising the threat level against them at all).
Now we are back to RU being knocked out with ATGMs and near-ATGMs when they have for quite some time been able to decimate them heavily already during the buildup in that narrow bottleneck. We can hope they have enough drones but unfortunately the weather is cloudy now.
The Russians have few advance routes in northern Avdiivka so everything should be shot down during the buildup and it was earlier – it is reasonable to assume that RU now achieves success due to ammunition shortages for indirect weapons.
It is absolutely a scandal that NK, China and Iran have been able to resource this RU offensive while the West dawdles with ammunition so RU achieves success.
Why is Ukraine not allowed to fire Western missiles into Russia when North Korea and Iran can fire their missiles and drones into Ukraine – that is damn preschool-level unfairness, a fundamental right and wrong.
Looking at the map, RU has soon got a wedge to the NS railway tracks which should be a good obstacle even if Gregg today writes that it has been passed, it is not an elevated railway embankment but at ground level and also a wide cleared “street” that all Russians must run across. There are good reasons to assume that there is a prepared defense behind that line and that UA will carry out counterattacks to secure this line.
Speculating about what we think could be the bigger implications of leaving Avdiivka without implying that Avdiivka should be left?
None I would say, sitting and looking at good defensive terrain west of the city, if they abandon Avdiivka and retreat to the next string of settlements it will at most be a straightening of the front, then the Russians have to cross open fields again which are very large.
However, it will of course be a propaganda victory for Putin just in time for the election which would be unfortunate so there may be political reasons to defend the settlement provided there are no unreasonable losses but that is a decision we should not speculate on even if the same bunch of pro-Ukrainian Twitter users who screamed hoarse over Bakhmut now scream hoarse over Avdiivka – let UA do their job.
47th mech which is supposed to send cooks and logistics into the fight according to the link the day before yesterday – when that brigade fought in Robotyne the same was said, a half-crazy brigade commander who threw in everyone who could walk in the attacks so there is a chance it was decimated already before and still has a half-crazy brigade commander. However, it probably indicates that they have problems at that point right now and have to take what is available for the defense.
Then one wonders if there are maintenance tunnels into Avdiivka so they can keep the settlement partially covered. There were reportedly such in Bakhmut and fortress Avdiivka has had many years to be completed.
Now we should go through a number of stages before one (possibly) starts thinking about falling back.
-Don’t know if the counterattacks in the north have been made, I don’t think so and if so they will come, the wedge up north is close in time and it takes a while to get operational reserves that will form into suitable combat groups and strike where they think it will work.
Down south they have carried out counterattacks and retaken the terrain RU took by wading through the sewer tunnel largely well, they have some infantry without vehicles in the buildings that are now being cleared out and they also knocked out a Russian relief column coming from the south?
It is likely that UA was busy with that nesting and subsequent fighting because I think that wedge up north came too close?
Offensive reserves and local counterattacks as said.
The other (or first) is probably that they pool indirect capabilities and prioritize the Avdiivka front for a couple of weeks until they have decimated RU units in the area. It is a tricky buildup area in the north with few roads that can easily be exposed to indirect fire.
More and more parties and opinion makers in Europe are accused of having been financed and taken instructions from the FSB which apparently runs this.
Here is Salvini’s party in Italy, no news but illustrates.
https://x.com/insidereng/status/1754855135111422108?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I also believe that the established parties have handled things quite poorly over the past 15-20 years and that there is much to be dissatisfied with, but one must not forget that some of these problems are entirely created by RU.
If one were to start investigating radicalizing mosques, one would surely find Turkey and Iran, which are close to Russia, involved everywhere, and somewhere strong dissatisfaction begins to spread among broad layers. The Quran burnings are a very good example, as are attacks on the West’s Christmas celebrations or terrorist attacks in general against core issues.
Crime is excellent for creating aversion, and somewhere weapons and drugs must come from to the gangs and criminal clans. Russian embassies and the FSB smuggle drugs and weapons as much as they can, and the Eastern European mafia is well established in the West.
During the Soviet era, the state used the mafia as a tool to keep an eye on the population, if I remember correctly.
The link below should be read with some caution and not overinterpreted, but it is likely that Russia has realized there is value in MENA to create conflict in the West.
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3593498-scary-links-russia-al-zawahiri-and-ukraines-destruction/
Simply put, the West welcomed Russia into the fold after 1989 and opened all doors. Since that day, Russia has actively infiltrated and destabilized the West as a state-prioritized function while building up for this war, and now they have taken the step fully – it is dizzying, and the real question is how much the West will allow itself to deteriorate before doing something about this because it is not a natural law that RU, Iran, Turkey, et al. should be allowed to sabotage everything they can inside the West.
Low-reactive responses only work when defending oneself against a lynch mob, is the rule, never otherwise.
I was watching some documentary about WW2 and when the radio reported on France’s fall (expected) and Pearl Harbor, thoughts went to when we hear about Russia invading the Baltics and so on. Russia will not stop unless they are stopped, but I have gotten the feeling that the West has slowly begun to accept this now, but one should act decisively thereafter as well.