10:47 – MatsExtrude
+++++
11:04 – Johan No.1
Sorry for the short rant above but it’s a bit tedious to see a West that never does what it’s supposed to, the unwanted son keeps delivering and Ukraine is not immune to everything which we have now seen when the curtain fluttered for a second. Some risk of rant towards the end 😀
Environmental friendliness continues in Ukraine, they have taken out an oil pipeline in Perm resulting in a fuel train exploding in a cloud of deadly fire.
Anyone in the thread know what kind of pipeline it is?
https://x.com/azovsouth/status/1755680952456483301?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Then a refinery in Krasnodar Krai has also been taken out.
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1755817297594163474?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Previously, 30%-40% of export and refining capacity was knocked out so maybe we are approaching 50% now, which is a nice milestone in dismantling the colonial power and oppressor of the indigenous population Russia.
It also seems that virtually all of Novosibirsk is without heat and blacked out, it’s a city of 1.5 million according to Google – “operation turn off the lights” continues with undiminished strength.
Then apparently 33% of the Black Sea fleet has been rendered uncombatworthy, 20% were sunk, but that’s actually significantly better than that 🤣
https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1754804834593567223?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The USA is considering making Russia a “state sponsor of terrorism.”
https://x.com/kyivindependent/status/1754983123610189846?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Exports from Odessa have reached pre-war levels.
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1754244144963146031?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Those Russian thermal blankets that are supposed to protect against thermal guided munitions don’t work 🤣🤣
https://x.com/tungphat1/status/1754481380887843061?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Drones with rotating magazines, as neat as an old Colt approximately.
https://x.com/chrisschmitz/status/1754593796371710140?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Extremely good thread on Russian psyops (not me but the link)
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kkr75bk5ft2c
Everything Ukraine has done in this war has been legendary level and everything the West has done has at best not destroyed anything. All the bans on all sorts of idiotic things for two years – the second Ukraine was allowed to take the war to Russia, it’s burning everywhere.
I sincerely hope that Ukraine now carries out spectacular liberation deeds around the anniversary, the election, and Victory Day. They can create chaos with very small means that have great impact.
A Grom 2 in the Kremlin, someone usually writes in the thread?
I also hope the West doesn’t release aid bit by bit here, it doesn’t look like it but you never know, and enabling oppressed and colonized indigenous peoples to regain their statutory freedom is high on Budanov’s to-do list.
The first thing that really needs to be done is a huge campaign against the frontline bases on the Russian side of the border but that will probably come when suitable ammunition arrives.
Unfortunately, most have been emptied of strategic reserves which now costs lives in Avdiivka and eventually northern Luhansk but there are still aircraft, army aviation, depots, ammunition, and vehicle staging areas that should be rained death upon.
Imagine if they had been taken out already in a cloud of ATACMS when all the T90s and BMP3s were fully fueled and loaded in long rows at staging areas, how many lives would have been saved 🤬
This war has been rigged in Russia’s favor from day one –
-first Macron and the senior German officer promised that Putin would not attack to get maximum effect from the surprise.
-Western support really only started in autumn 2022 with HIMARS and LV and then armored vehicles were promised early January 2023 – they resourced UA’s spring offensive which started too late due to lack of equipment. No one forgets the famous 5,000 German helmets 😐
-NATO commanders have controlled Ukraine throughout the war and they vetoed the Azov push in 2022 at the Russian low point (and before the mines) and chose Kherson instead. Kharkiv and the subsequent lightning offensive were probably mostly Zalizhny, he probably ignored asking NATO commanders for permission, presumably?
– In 2023, NATO commanders forced UA to fight according to NATO doctrine without having resourced it properly, the elite air force had not arrived yet and the spring offensive was complicated by FAB500/FAB1500, AHKP, and minefields.
– To date, support has drastically decreased despite the West’s warehouses being packed, and UA probably does not have the capacity to resource a larger offensive right now – I am wavering a bit back and forth on this right now, it is hard not to be affected by everything one reads…
– Until 2024, Ukraine was basically not allowed to take the war to Russia, ground invasion was prohibited, the oil industry was spared, and the electrical infrastructure was spared.
Nevertheless, Putin fails every day all week but our media in the West helps hide this enormous failure as best they can while neglecting to highlight all the sensational things Ukraine is doing.
Have you read in established media that 30%-40% of oil exports and refineries are knocked out?
Is that front page news in DN?
This war is a national trauma for Ukraine, there are countless overstressed now single women with severely traumatized children who do not know how they will make it through the month and who are the only ones mourning a fallen father with a photo on the mantelpiece framed by two burnt-down candles. The stress level of having a partner, child, or parent in acute mortal danger every day for years is absolutely enormous.
The world is not fair but as soon as Ukraine is allowed to do as they want, everything loosens up and becomes positive, and then the West manages to put the wet blanket back on and everything becomes slow and gray – completely incomprehensible.
This is our time’s global conflict which will either be stamped out in Ukraine when the deeply marinated luxury hatred is ignited to the great jubilation of the decolonized indigenous peoples or those sitting on the fence will go all in. Iran has already gone all-in but China and a few others are not overly eager about this so far, but everything can change for the worse.
In the risk analysis, everything is rated a five and poorly managed but the West continues to do nothing and hopes for the best, almost addicted to that risk acceptance.
11:12 – Johan No.1
We haven’t seen the last miracle yet, we agree MRF 😀
Considering that Zalizhny was the one who wanted to mobilize half a million and politics has slowed it down, I find it quite hard to see that politics wants to get Zalizhny out of the way to be able to start all the mothers of offensives, but we will see.
It was quite obvious that the spring offensive would have follow-up effects.
After a depressing day, we return to praising everything Ukraine does.
Hope that some in the thread have contact with Ukrainians and can inform us how the thinking goes among the broad masses.
11:26 – Johan No.1
👍
11:34 – Johan No.1
Amid everything around Zalizhny, it is now confirmed that RU has crossed the railway in northern Avdiivka.
They are also widening the northern wedge and we know that a new strategic reserve has recently been added, which means more gas.
It is too early to speculate about this but that they have made such significant progress at a critical point in Avdiivka is not good…
The counterattacks are probably not far off and we will see when the smoke has cleared.
11:35 – Johan No.1
They also seem to have bitten into Stepove as well.
09:11 – Johan No.1
Yes, now it has come
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1756229092876099880?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
10:33 – Johan No.1
Tucker’s interview isn’t even worth commenting on – it’s my personal belief that Tucker is very well paid. Pretty funny when Putin grinningly brings up that Tucker is a CIA reject 🤣🤣
Big discussion in the thread yesterday about Zalizhny – of course you don’t jump on negative rumors about UA before they’re confirmed. When it comes to RU, you should jump on everything, exaggerate and mock at the slightest thing.
Yesterday the curtains were pulled back and we got a glimpse of what the living room looks like and it’s messy. You know the guy in the thread who usually warns that the West is playing with high risk and that Ukraine is a mess of different forces pulling in different directions and that it could become like any group project at school at any moment?
Not long ago Zalizhny went out and announced that he will hold on because he has a war to win.
Now it remains to be seen what this new direction actually is – from what I understand Zalizhny’s offensives have been held back by NATO command but the big wins that have been made have had his stamp?
Zalizhny also wanted to mobilize half a million but politics didn’t want that and if the Chief of Defense thinks half a million is needed, there is likely some personnel shortage in places or he thought of liberating Ukraine during 2024.
If you go by rumors, and how Defmon jumps up and down, Sirsky is not particularly liked in the army.
I belong to those who thought Bakhmut was well fought. The whole war is one big abuse and every day is death so retreating from Bakhmut just takes the war to other less favorable terrain and if you retreat too early and too fast something collapses.
The spring offensive went as it went and it was quite expected that it would create division but the responsibility lies with many, not least the West who dawdle with the support.
We can all sit and guess and have our opinions but the only thing that really matters is what the individual rifleman out in the trench thinks. He is the one who dies for Ukraine’s freedom and either he feels he is fighting for a good cause and has all the support or he feels abandoned, resigned and angry at his leaders who in their incompetence sabotage everything.
I don’t know what the tone is like but if anyone in the thread has contacts in Ukraine it would actually be very interesting to hear.
Personally I see this as a negative, Zalizhny was like Budanov a prodigy and he has been top-controlled the whole war by NATO command who have really managed to counteract their purpose. Don’t forget that now history is to be written so soon we will get leaks about all the negative things Zalizhny has done and all the good things Zelensky and Sirsky do.
Besides that, we should watch out for two things – large-scale Russian mobilization and if Ukraine started to retreat after running out of gas.
Until a week ago UA has carried out local offensives and retaken strategic terrain.
We have also received reports of RU buildup near Avdiivka, northern front and northern Luhansk as well as most recently at the southern front.
I think it is clear that UA has poor ammunition for indirect weapons at Avdiivka because previously everything was knocked out during the buildup, all filmed by drones.
RU is not completely clueless and has started its offensive operations when it is cloudy.
Now I don’t think Ukraine will start to retreat but that’s probably what we should watch for – right now.
I find it hard to put into words how disappointed I am in the West here. Throughout the war I have believed more in the West than what has been done – if there is one thing I have consistently been wrong about it is the West’s willingness to support because I have refused to accept that overpaid experts, elected officials and people in positions of trust can be so immune to reality. Studying navels has taken on a new meaning.
Yes, the USA has quite a big problem and big congratulations to Putin for a successful influence operation that included Q/non but that’s only half the picture and there is no influence operation in Portugal or Spain.
All of Europe is trying to position itself for NEW arms contracts but there are HUGE amounts of weapons and ammunition that could be delivered tomorrow.
I’ll say it again – it is the perimeter defense that is important and Portugal, Spain, France, UK, Holland and Belgium could send ALL their equipped materiel to Ukraine.
They could send all their reserve ammunition without increasing the risk for the countries because there are countries in between that will defend them by defending themselves.
Ukraine has its wish list, it is well known, and they meet in Ramstein regularly, UA representatives run around like anxious car salesmen all the time to secure ammunition and weapons.
If we for a second forget the USA, Europe in a joint effort could have ensured that Ukraine had full ammunition stocks, hundreds of Leo2 and a few thousand IFVs by now and F-16s should have been wreaking havoc at their best.
We keep talking about the Russian low point but now damn Europe has managed to give Ukraine an ammunition shortage low point out of sheer sluggishness – there is plenty of ammunition!
Risk analysis is not exactly hard to learn but apparently no one here has taken that course.
I chose not to discuss the rumors about the conflict between politics and military but the fact remains, the country is a mess of different factions pulling in the same direction with difficulty and Russia is inside sabotaging everything they can.
If defeatism starts to spread it can go fast, that should be clear.
Again – Spain and Portugal are showered with EU funds, halt sales of grenades, Leo2 and IFV as a counter-demand, they get new price for the crap. They would have gotten the funds anyway.
We have felt throughout the war that Ukraine has gotten just enough to keep its head above water. The worst was almost when the USA sold nearly 1000 Bradleys and Abrams to Morocco dirt cheap, people absolutely boiled 🤬
The French have 4500 of those Renault vehicles and have sent about fifty.
Then we rejoice that the West has stopped demanding that Ukraine not take the war to Russia – that should never have been there from the start. A bit like when an abused partner is grateful that the blows don’t land on the face.
When it comes to the physical war in Ukraine I now feel like we’ve rewound the tape to the battle of Bakhmut roughly but with the difference that then we knew UA had a resource-equipped spring offensive starting up that kicked off May 4, 2023.
That it should be so infinitely and year-long difficult for the West to understand that Ukraine needs weapons and ammunition 🤬
They are incredibly economical with all weapons and the maintenance chain is insanely efficient so most is recycled but it’s pretty simple math – UA must get more than RU.
As always, last summer in my naivety I believed that the West was already working on resourcing the next offensive (if it would be needed, I guess I wrote). The question is almost whether UA stopped their spring offensive when they started to feel that ammunition was running low and the West didn’t send more?
They must act based on what the West does, and we thought they wouldn’t slow down because there was no reason to do so.
We’ll see what happens here, but IF it turns out that UA starts to retreat because they run out of ammunition, then I abdicate from the EU. There are a few hundred artillery pieces and a few thousand armored vehicles just in Portugal, and Spain surely has 1,500 armored vehicles and more artillery.
I find it infinitely hard to understand that Europe cannot realize that the perimeter defense is what matters and above all, we shower many countries with aid – demand something in return and buy out equipment!
Then unfortunately we have a potentially quite big problem – the first small local terrain gain for Russia will cause the subversive activities in Europe to spin endlessly, and if the West starts to adopt the narrative that Russia is a threat advancing, then the West will feel it must arm itself first – perfect for Russia because then Ukraine gets nothing at all 😐
That’s why there won’t be that million shells from the West because other contracts are prioritized over Ukraine right now.
I spent half the day yesterday (had to work the other half…) looking at unit-assigned equipment in Europe and got completely teary-eyed – there is just so much. If Greece could be persuaded to open their warehouses, the war would be won.
In fact, if you include Italy and France, we have that war-winning weapons package of 15,000 – 20,000 armored vehicles 😀
Yes, it would be exciting to be a fly on the wall at the Rammstein meetings before Ukraine is allowed in.
Above all – we KNOW what remains in Russian depots and we KNOW their new production, and comparing that with a quick Google search of what exists in the West, you understand that RU is hopelessly lost already.
For some infinitely incomprehensible reason, the West has partly decided that Ukraine was not allowed to take the war to Russia before 2024 and then gave Ukraine just enough to keep their head above water when there are tens of thousands of armored vehicles in warehouses and as much ammunition as you can imagine in reserve stocks.
It will be very interesting to see how the twists went when history is later written, incompetence, arrogance, fear, Russian influence…
However, none of what Putin peddles has come true, things are going ten times worse there, but Ukraine must, for heaven’s sake, get the weapons so they can win the war.