14:20 – MatsExtrude
Thanks!
When we have occasionally complained that deliveries to Ukraine have not been on time, some usually write that a lot is probably happening behind the scenes that we don’t know about, that they probably have full control, they surely know what they are doing.
I hope that is the case, but so far there is no direct evidence of it.
I’m starting to almost suspect that the plan is to slowly wear out both Russia and Ukraine, but really it is probably that they simply don’t care enough to do what is necessary.
If they keep dragging their feet, the Russians will eventually do the same thing in Europe as in the USA, get people to selfishly start shouting that we must think of ourselves first and we must make sure that “some problem area” gets enough money before we support Ukraine…
It’s time to rip off the bandage and send what is needed! Both equipment and preferably troops who can take over the surveillance against Belarus and the northernmost border with Russia.
–
Damn, now I have to watch Sucker Carlson’s store visit, sounds like humor! 🙂
15:27 – Johan No.1
At Deepstate, a huge area east of the southern part of Avdiivka has now become contested.
Then it seems RU is almost sniffing around Lachtokyne.
Seems at least to be some kind of delaying battle out of the built-up area in (southern) Avdiivka.
21:34 – Johan No.1
Darth putin on point
https://x.com/darthputinkgb/status/1758461329541652855?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
11:23 – Johan No.1
Yesterday came the confirmation that Ukraine is leaving the built-up area in Avdiivka – this was the reason for my big depression a week ago because it was quite clear what was about to happen here and it was unnecessary, the ammunition shortage simply had consequences.
https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1758428348399697932?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I’m piecing together a bit below so there is some risk I am wrong but I perceive the situation as follows –
-RU moved a strategic reserve to Avdiivka that was well equipped, reports of T90M and BMP3 on train transport. Probably CAA at 15,000 or similar according to previous patterns.
-There were also reports that they pooled their better capabilities – VDV, Spetznaz and reconnaissance for this attack even though none of the unit maps show it.
-RU has been able to use TOS-1 and Russian JDAMS in large quantities and they have artillery – it is hell on earth in Avdiivka.
-They exploited a period of cloudy weather and fog because they expected it would reasonably reduce UA drone weapons?
-RU applied trickery and waded through the sewers and managed to get “behind” UA defenses in southern Avdiivka and it became chaotic.
-Then RU got a sudden breakthrough at a critical point in northern Avdiivka and Ukraine became reactive, RU got inside their decision circle. My guess is that the sewer walk drew attention.
-3rd Azov themselves announced that they were mobilized on short notice.
-3rd Azov’s task was not to push back RU but to keep a corridor open for the defense in Avdiivka to retreat through.
-It is possible, and this is highly unconfirmed, that there are now units encircled in southern Avdiivka – reports are contradictory and UA will not admit this until it is obvious to everyone. Deepstate suggests that it is more than a bit of a narrow corridor to retreat out of anyway.
However, it is likely that RU will be able to show footage of piles of fallen Ukrainians and some captured. This type of retreat and especially of the rear troops is not very glamorous, you run like crazy along ditches trying to get out before the retreat route is closed.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1758246542656311714?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
-That’s how it looks right now and I think it’s clear that there will be no counterattack on Krasnohorivka or what, we discussed that it should be a high-risk operation but that it would be the only thing that could solve the situation.
-It is possible that UA tries to hold the factory area because 3rd Azov has also been moved there. Now that everything is breaking loose, the factory area will be exposed from three directions and especially in the south one can guess that they have not prepared the defense well – if I may guess I think UA will give up that area in step two and fall back.
-The battle for Avdiivka that has been going on since October or thereabouts and where RU brigades were wiped out in a week without getting close to the defense is thus over when UA withdraws and the reason for it is that the West has not delivered ammunition.
Avdiivka has taken most attention but RU is also on the offensive up in northern Luhansk which has not gone well so far but they got a breakthrough some time ago that was pushed back.
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1758232644733603921?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
RU is also conducting offensive operations at Bakhmut and now the defense seems to hold but Gregg started to get worried about Chasiv Yar, or he wrote that Chasiv Yar risks becoming the zero line and it is quite far behind the front line today.
East of Vuhledar and up towards Mariinka RU attacks and there is reason to believe that RU will try to erase UA terrain gains from the spring offensive soon at the southern front.
It IS a critical situation now and if UA has released ammunition they have either done it because guarantees were given or they have done it because otherwise they are doomed and then stocks run towards zero after a month and the situation becomes even worse.
The West MUST send ammunition to Ukraine immediately. The USA seems to have taken a two-week break if I understand this correctly but Biden can send materiel through executive order.
https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1758123301929460010?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Then my hobbyhorse that countries bordering the Atlantic can open their emergency stocks and send everything UA needs today.
It is sad that Avdiivka fell as it did and did not continue to inflict RU 1:7 in damage and now gives Putin the straw he needs to look strong at home.
For some strange reason the West has managed to give Putin what he needs a second time to stay in power, once is no time, as they say…
Now that this year’s depression has lifted we can analyze this calmly instead, if you are a gloomy person the slightest setback is reason to give up but I have fought my way up from that quagmire when I understood that Avdiivka would fall now and stand strong again and look at a bunch of gloomy people swimming down there – they don’t seem to have much fun and mostly fight with each other.
I hope the PR agencies in the West spin this hard to whip the USA to vote right and to persuade Europe to open the barns.
Avdiivka has been a 1:7 or better ratio for Ukraine and it could have continued until the election in March. Ukraine has found the combo to fight from a numerical disadvantage and inflict the Russians 1:5 losses in their own attack but it requires ammunition.
Then for all doubters who do not believe in UA loss ratio of 1:7 in Avdiivka, 110th Mechanized has been in the front line in Avdiivka since October and retreated now and RU has lost 500-600 daily in these fruitless attacks. If it had been less than 1:7 this brigade would not exist or what.
On whatever grounds it was, the West decided to crash this winning concept and the result was a retreat from Avdiivka.
I find it hard to express in words how angry I am that Portugal and Spain get 80 billion EUR in grants for their reconstruction fund but have not been able to open their emergency stocks. They will never need to defend themselves thanks to Ukraine and can without any risk at all send everything to Ukraine and only keep what they need for training.
Europe is quite satisfied here – they have signed dozens of new contracts for weapons systems and ammunition but not a thought that the barrels should go silent now when Ukraine has been shouting about this for months.
The world is not fair but this was just unnecessary and incompetent, a bit like my project manager.
By the way, I am standing and weighing whether to take the fight or not, have an email prepared to the regional manager that will give the project manager and his immediate boss in the Netherlands some tough questions but wise from experience I know that it takes a long time and if you are really lucky there is someone who likes a whistleblower. It is infinitely strange that if you follow the contract you signed regarding ethics and following the company’s rules there is a great risk that you become unwanted. Wouldn’t it be better not to have those clauses in the contract so you wouldn’t have to worry?
Ukraine already has the combo to inflict RU 1:5 in loss ratio during the offensive, and now we can be confident that they have figured out how to overcome the minefields.
As long as they get ammunition and equipment, this war is won.
The observant have noted that the 3rd Azov has received Bradleys, right 😀
Maybe there is truth to the idea that that shipment of Bradleys to Greece had Ukraine as the final destination?
Russia operates thousands of Starlink terminals in Ukraine. If you remember when they shut down Starlink near Crimea so that the big fleet-killing day failed miserably, the explanation was that Starlink is not allowed to be active on occupied territory, right?
Now we already know what Elon is about, but just so everyone understands that Starlink does not shut down all terminals operating on occupied territory because the Russians have thousands of active subscriptions that Elon can see where they are – on occupied territory.
When Russia panics and calls Elon asking him to cut the line so their fleet survives, it takes minutes.
When Ukraine shows photographic evidence, Starlink says that all terminals on occupied territory will be shut down when detected, and then they turn a blind eye to thousands of active terminals that they very well know are on occupied territory.
Recently, Elon has dropped all the tech talk and his big cause is that Congress should vote no on the aid package to Ukraine. There is no logical connection between his profession, life, and interests and an aid package to Ukraine other than that it would benefit Russia and that there are good grounds to suspect he is a Putin ally.
He has enormous influence after buying Twitter.
His time will come 🤬
https://x.com/kyivindependent/status/1758369094179647613?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
If I may guess, I think friendly fire with Lancet is enormous.
https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1758234788689789127?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
If anyone thinks things are going well for the Russians, they are increasingly using MTLB as combat vehicles.
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1758214009726152734?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Now there is irrefutable evidence that Iran’s guard is in Yemen and leading the Houthis in the attack on international shipping in the Red Sea.
You remember that signals intelligence ship (or whatever it was) that provides target coordinates to the Houthis’ land-based missile batteries and two escorts but also to the land-based Republican Guard.
The US response was, to say the least, weak against Iran, and then reports came that the US will leave many bases in MENA, and then reports came that countries in MENA are asking the US to leave.
-Not exactly a signal to Iran that a declaration of war against international shipping will be punished, right?
Then when you thought RU couldn’t be worse – they are buying 40-year-old ammunition. Talk about overpaying for scrap-ready equipment.
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1758032726274211840?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Meanwhile, Ukraine has received the glide bombs and they seem to be quite effective.
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1757967165171675582?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
We have now reached the point where lack of ammunition has consequences on the battlefield – it can no longer be ignored.
Now I am – positive – positively convinced that the West will break out of the spell and deliver what is needed and then we can put this behind us, but if the West does not do so, the trend now is that the ammunition shortage gives RU the advantage they need to advance.
Already Putin has gotten what he needs to survive a few more months at home just before his fateful choice – so unspeakably incompetent of the West that it brings tears to your eyes.
It was the same during the Wagner coup when an opposition actually formed that went all-in. The West prevented Ukraine from entering the northern Oblasts and reinforcing this palace coup – that the West saved Putin is not entirely far-fetched!
If Ukraine gets ammunition, they win; if they do not get ammunition, there is a high risk that Putin gets his way out here and can freeze the conflict.
The ammunition exists – it lies in enormous stockpiles all over the West gathering dust. We have gone through this many times.
Those 1 million drones to be manufactured under contract are good, but again – these are new contracts and that is what the West is mostly busy with right now – how to maximize profit from this war.
Send unit-equipped material and reserve stockpiles with ammunition from all countries furthest from the perimeter defense.
The Russian army is absolutely on the ropes here, we have gone through the depots, production, and that the loss ratio is 1:5 – “quantity is a quality in itself” absolutely does not work because with a ratio of 1:5, Ukraine has both quantity and quality on its side.
Air defense over occupied areas is now weak so the ground is plowed for F-16.
Budanov’s havoc in Russia has reached hurricane strength.
It looks good everywhere but the West has once again managed to wrest a favorable situation from Ukraine by denying them something that could easily be sent today.
Don’t forget that Putin has silenced criticism from Russia and increased criticism of the war from the West – this is an enormous positive bias for Russia right now. The LPR blogger Muntz just came out and said he no longer dares to criticize the war for fear of court-martial.
My real concern is that all Chiefs of Defense in the West will pull back if Ukraine starts to retreat, which they now have in Avdiivka, and that they consider they need all the equipment for their countries’ defense.
This perimeter defense thing is not particularly difficult but I don’t think we should overestimate the highly paid people in positions of trust in the West here considering how it has looked during two years of high-intensity war.
By the way, I laughed so hard I cried at Tucker’s video when he was buying food and thought the coin lock on the shopping cart was from 2023 – has he never bought food at home in the USA, one wonders?
His time will come too…