12:44 – Johan No.1
There it came – you get the feeling that they are abandoning the settlement and keeping the factory area in a first step maybe if you try to interpret the text. The defense can then go Siverne – maybe the factory area or do we think they fall back further than that?
This is a direct consequence of Europe not managing to send ammunition that is easily accessible in the barns – not top marks directly 🤬
This was the reason for the big depression a few days ago.
12:52 – Johan No.1
Rusi is wrong (in my opinion 😀).
Around 400 T90M, T80 and T72 have been “newly produced” or modified during 2023.
Most of the T90M and T80 are existing vehicles that have been modified so actual new production is vanishingly small.
The other 1100 vehicles are mostly T62 and T54-55 where 800 T62s were to be modified but also some that have been completed from depot and then are unmodified vehicles. Surely one or two T72s in there as well.
Now maybe 1500 sounds like a lot but just during October 2023 the Russians lost 550 tanks so 30% of the annual production, where 75% were old 50s tanks, went down in a single month.
They are probably completely wrong about how long the tanks left in the depot will last because at least 30% are probably beyond all rescue and what remains will last until summer 2024 if losses are high.
12:53 – Johan No.1
What does an analyst service at Rusi pay if I may ask?
13:33 – Johan No.1
They don’t have particularly good control over the situation and have been forced to become reactive.
Yes, you’re right that this is a nothingburger but it is completely unnecessary if the West had just sent the ammunition.
Since October they have pushed the Russians back already during the advance but with acute ammunition shortage it was no longer possible.
It’s quite good defensive terrain that is lost here.
Yes, we may not have seen the counterattacks play out yet but I take the above official statement as evidence that they intend to retreat from the extent.
14:07 – Johan No.1
Now it is confirmed that Putin and Orban have been more than friends and have long had an intimate relationship, the source is reliable 😀
https://x.com/flyingdutchpall/status/1757920141986476035?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
14:08 – MatsExtrude
Thanks for yet another interesting essay!
Regarding 50% knocked out refineries, I think you are very optimistic, some of them are too far away to reach and some of them are the size of a smaller Swedish town. https://maps.app.goo.gl/ARaoaBPPYsKSKfhC7
Sure, you might hit something that can make the whole facility stand still for a while but in most cases it is probably just a small part that gets damaged. I guess the Russians know quite well what it means if the oil stops for too long and are probably quite quick to fix it.
Regardless, the refineries take a hit and even if it is only 5-10% of production that has been lost (so far) it is extremely good.
Now they mostly profit from exporting crude oil but that export seems to be decreasing even if they get paid a bit too well.
If the US can just get Bradleys and a proper amount of ammunition (+ ATACMS) sent, I think it can go pretty far.
Then I want to see Warthog too.. 🙂
16:19 – Johan No.1
I have googled a bit and then gone by others’ statements, then maybe they are completely incompetent and unreliable who knows 😀
Russia has 64 oil terminals of which 5-6 are the largest handling most of the export and all of them have been subjected to drone attacks with enormous fireballs. Now you might argue that it is quick to repair but I think a big fireball melts quite a lot of electronics and piping within the area where the fireball rages.
How long does it take to repair the Oceana swimming pool in Hisingen, is it the same three weeks it should take to repair a refinery with oil that has burned very strongly in Russia?
Of course, I have misinterpreted and extrapolated to the refineries but the fact remains, there seem to be about 40 refineries in Russia and 6-9 large ones. For those who bother to check, I guess the 6-9 large ones have already been visited.
When I guess that 50% have been knocked out it is because those with large production or export capacity have technical faults and I do not for a second believe that it will be possible to fix it for many months, Lex Oceania.
But yes, we need some numbers, decreased export December 2023 – February 2024 would be a very good figure on how much export capacity has been knocked out for example.
16:43 – Johan No.1
Biden can deliver millions of shells to Ukraine today if he wants.
https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1758123301929460010?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
17:26 – Johan No.1
No, that is probably from a different post than before and above all – what is the value of equipment to be scrapped?
Probably negative.
19:03 – MatsExtrude
Without actually knowing, I imagine that the larger facilities have several parallel lines and that the whole refinery does not become unusable even if it burns. Then maybe there is some truth in what you say. That it can take time to repair. But Russia probably does not have to worry about environmental permits and other bureaucracy..
Exports will definitely be a good indicator. Now the refined oil products have already decreased sharply, surely because India and China have bought large amounts of crude oil which they in turn have exported (since it is no longer possible to prove that the origin is from Russia).
Despite that, they still sell quite a lot of oil products mainly to e.g. Turkey and Brazil.
Here you can see how it looked up to the end of 2023 and it has steadily decreased but dropped especially much in December. Could absolutely be because they have had problems with production.
https://youtu.be/8xaf5atx1Dg?si=VKTgUiDG8JpM791y&t=608
We will follow up and see if that trend continues!
19:52 – MatsExtrude
Cluster munitions should definitely be something that can be sent. From what I understand they were still planned to be phased out. Attempts were made to modify them to make them safer with a lower failure rate but it was costly. They may not be able to send those already modernized but the rest should not be a problem.
Then if Biden just brazenly decided that the value would be zero on something that is actually not old and that might be needed, he would probably be in trouble so you have to take that with a grain of salt.
However, I am still annoyed that he did not use Lend & Lease when he had the chance. That was cowardly, although he probably did not think it would turn out as it has.
10:46 – Johan No.1
Good grief – yes!
He managed to delay the decision on tanks until January 2023 – a whole year.
He has managed to paralyze US support completely for at least another 2-3 weeks.
He managed to turn a NATO meeting into a PR disaster where the UK defense minister had to face the consequences of calling Ukraine ungrateful.
So it is moving forward but if his psyops had not simmered at all Ukraine would have gotten everything already in 2022 right 😀
12:30 – Johan No.1
Our time’s global conflict is ongoing, and we will see during 2024 whether the collective thread will stand by a mob supply depot and finger an old, far too greasy Ak4 in too short M59s going forward or not.
I have been thinking quite a lot lately about WW2 and the enormous impact it had on the populations across Europe.
Just a simple thing like needing a job to eat, for example – how did the economies in Poland and France collapse during the war and after the liberation and destruction, how did the economies get going again?
Then you understand at the same time when you see Ukraine or any old war zone in Africa – it keeps going.
But infinitely many individual families are devastated in these wars, and at the end of a war many do not manage to get up again after too many blows, whether as fighters or vulnerable civilians. Then new generations come, and everything is forgotten except for the chain-smoking grandfather who usually tells the most incredible war stories after a few whiskies.
Europe was really hard hit during WW2, and the world had gone into full war economy – the US Navy had 64,000 ships at the end of the war 😲
Everything was dropped, and the goal became to defeat the Axis powers; many millions participated in the war in one way or another.
Now we are there again, but a few hundred thousand infantry in trenches in eastern Ukraine stand between the above and a de-escalation.
It is my strong belief that this war has been violent enough to awaken the sleeping West and that therefore, at the end of a war, the usual will happen – major rearmament and new organizations with regulations for eternal peace. Thanks to the Ukrainian shooting, we will then enter a long period of peace after this.
What is needed to awaken the West is a sufficiently bloody and large war, but it does not need to spread to WW2 or WW1 scale for the West to wake up, right – it is enough that the forges run red-hot and that the leaders of the free world begin to fall in line for the effect to be achieved, and that is actually where we are today.
Had China gone all-in in this war, we would probably have ended up in a larger global conflict, but they seem highly unwilling and have asked Iran to sit down and keep quiet.
See it a bit like a family quarrel; it becomes quiet for a few days when all energy is spent before the teenager starts up again.
It is my hope that the world sees this and that Ukraine in 10-15 years is a prosperous country on the edge of the EU.
It seems like the 3rd Azov has reinforced the factory area and buildings and would then signal that they intend to hold the factory area?
One should be able to hold this facility, and there is a retreat route in the sky to Orlivka. It is also not impossible that they have dug a 1.5 km tunnel; they have had a number of years to do so, right?
Then the new line would go from that area down to Lastockhyne and Siverne IF they choose to give up the buildings in Avdiivka.
If they choose to give up the buildings, they presumably want to carry out a delaying battle out of the city, right?
If they manage a counterattack at Krasnohorivka, they can quite easily go on the defense at Kamyanka since it is channeling terrain between waterways/lakes and excellent defensive terrain north and south of it.
But.. the Russians are not completely clueless, and they have a lot of armor now with this new CAA, so a counterattack up at Krasnohorivka is probably to be considered high risk, and Ukraine is de facto reactive in this battle now.
It seems Ukraine has gotten its indirect capabilities going as a column heading for Avdiivka was knocked out during the advance.
Then there are mixed signals; we believe Ukraine’s drones cannot operate fully due to cloudiness, but we also get information that Russian drones are making life difficult for Ukraine.
However, Deepstatemap’s latest update has some similarities with a full breakthrough at the point where the wedge has been driven in, and one hopes there is defense in Lachtokyne.
It is still a sharp situation in Avdiivka, and the fact that the 3rd Azov was moved there on “short notice” means that Ukraine is reactive and plugging the holes.
It will be a nail-biting week, as said.
This is de facto the only war that could drain Russia; all proxy wars they try to start drain someone else, and they normally jump on some country that costs them brigades in losses, not armies. In WW2, they used soldiers from Ukraine, Belarus, everywhere, and so on, trying to save the Moscow Russians. After the war, they created a buffer zone throughout the Cold War and waged endless proxy wars.
It is also the only war where you can get at Russia directly, which Ukraine is now exploiting to the fullest.
This war is an enormous threat to Putin et al., and I am still curious why they are pushing hard, but I guess it is what they can do – more violence until it either works out or crashes.
Not a word has been cried out about the collapsing oil industry while they convene the UN for crisis meetings every week for a few shells in Donetsk or a downed transport plane. They naturally keep quiet because it stings too much.
Putin et al. know they cannot win this war, but shame on anyone who gives up – during the autumn, they really did everything to talk the West down, and right now the troll armies are very active.
This one is pretty neat – as a person, you like confirmation and consensus but expect pushback from your opponents. Senators sit and get a lot of support on social media where everyone is either bots or Russian-paid trolls. They then believe they have “the people with them” and feel that both the people’s trust and a hefty payday at the bank are good.
https://x.com/flutemagician/status/1756400757421572183?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Here we have 26 “experts” in the West who can probably be accused of doing Putin’s bidding for cash.
https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1757607738798977498?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Europe has probably shaken this off somewhat now, even if no materiel is coming.
Then I usually say that US support is irrelevant because there is enough in Europe, but that is a truth with modification because Putin’s hope burns until the US has done as Europe and sorted out its domestic politics.
If only the “war-winning weapons package” is announced (which never needs to be delivered), Putin will start feeling really bad there he shuffles around in slippers in his bunker in Altai.
I think it is extremely significant that Putin, through Russian state media, says that he considers Biden to be sane and would gladly work with him if he wins – he is really running out of olive branches now, so many has he sent to the West since Budanov was allowed to go after the oil industry.
Putin did not understand how serious this was because he has been able to distance himself for two years since Ukraine was not allowed to take the war to Russia.
Yesterday, another oil terminal was hit, and it is indisputable that the West is not protesting this because it has been going on for a few months now.
Then a gas pipeline was blown up in Iran – this is very interesting.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1757650312230207881?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Zelensky asked the US for permission to fire Zalizhny, so it is unlikely that they have gone against the West and knocked out all oil production and refining capacity despite the West not allowing it.
I can’t keep count, but there will probably be a summary soon – I’m quite sure that exports and refining capacity have decreased by 50%.
According to some legend in the thread, oil is now starting to arrive on ships TO Russia. It’s a bit borderline whether Ukraine can sink a ship because the environmental impact could be astronomical, but maybe they can disable the propeller? I have the feeling that Ukraine will be very careful about causing an oil disaster in the Baltic Sea or the Black Sea.
First of all, all Western expertise has left the oil industry in Russia, and they are short on spare parts, so I strongly believe they cannot repair damages quickly. I also think Ukraine knows exactly where the drones hit – in the soft parts that cause great damage.
Russia has also tried to retaliate by knocking out Ukraine’s power infrastructure this winter, but they have failed – too many missiles have been shot down. I met someone in Dnipro now who signals intent.
Russia is currently suffering enormous damage from its own special operation in Ukraine, and it is already beyond all reason to continue the war. They are getting nowhere in Ukraine, the West has shut the door, their infrastructure at home is being destroyed at a furious pace, and the West can resource Ukraine far beyond what Russia can manage, plus China is no longer very enthusiastic about this.
Credit for a good attempt to escalate globally on October 7, 2023, but now that flame has gone out.
It is quite clear that Putin does not care the least – going all in is his model, and his rant with Tucker was not far behind a certain German.
But all the siloviki and oligarchs whose fortunes are disappearing rapidly and whose families have had to swap their weekly weekend shopping in London for a month’s shopping spree in China. One should not underestimate the furious upper-class wives and their shopping habits; it makes soldier wives seem peaceful.
This summer, we wrote quite a bit about how Putin’s last card would be to talk the West down, and they started Meiden 3 in the fall and topped it off with global escalation on October 7.
The new year started with the UK, France, and Germany all announcing large arms packages (mostly new contracts, perhaps…) and promising to support Ukraine to a smashing victory.
Then H..as is being chased through tunnels, a coalition against Houthi has formed, and China asked Iran to sit down and keep quiet.
To me, it looks like Putin’s plan has completely failed here – IG?
What does he have left then?
-he no longer has materiel; they are now giving prioritized offensive brigades T62 tanks.
-he no longer has China’s full support; they probably want an end to the war.
-he does not have a stable Russia because Budanov is wreaking havoc and the lights are out in half the country.
-he has no chance of success on the ground in Ukraine.
To me, it looks hopeless, and it has looked hopeless for quite a while, but Putin also needs to understand that 😀
There is definitely something to those who have spoken of me as a contrarian indicator for the simple reason that politicians rarely take action before it is too late or just on the edge, and that is where we are now – we have discussed for a long time that we should watch if Ukraine starts to retreat on the battlefield, and we have reached that point now; it is a critical situation if Ukraine does not get its ammunition.
However, the West should get an IG for how they have arranged this support – everyone is now positioning themselves for new arms contracts for their defense industries and chose to overlook this low point which may have prolonged the war – it is quite cynical.
Then I at least want to know when history is written what the motives were for releasing Budanov in Russia only in 2024. I have my thoughts on this which are not very flattering, but historians will have to sort that out.
If Ukraine had been allowed to take the war to Russia in 2023 and instead of a small Belgorod raid had invaded Kursk, Bryansk, and Belgorod oblasts with all the maneuver brigades in the area (+10), it would have been absolute chaos. We discussed that as a natural part of the spring offensive, if I remember correctly, after the first raids were carried out.
Wagner was already on its way to staging a palace coup and the VDV would join in; the border was completely unguarded except for customs officers, and they managed to retake the area with a few brigades rushing up from Ukraine and then this year’s conscripts, if I remember correctly – it was serious.
The southern front was not strong then as the focus was elsewhere, so if Ukraine had created full chaos up there with existing units and then exploited its full offensive reserve on the southern front, this war could have looked completely different.
Putin would simply have looked too weak.
One could reason in terms that the West almost helped Putin stay in power during 2023 through its actions.
I believe the West’s strategy for quite some time has been that Russia should get tired but that the country should not turn inward, and now with the benefit of two years of death, the best thing that could happen would be for Russia to turn inward. Come 2024, it seems the West has talked it over and accepted that this is one of the options at least.
I have gotten the impression that it takes 4 Republicans to push through the aid package in Congress, and there were rumors that Ukraine started releasing ammunition again, which that destroyed column in Avdiivka signals they have done.
There is a very high probability that the US aid package will be approved quite soon.
What will they actually send?
One can only hope that everything arrives: cluster munitions, ATACMS, armored vehicles, and much more. With a bit of luck, the defense has already prepared the transports.
Someone asked if the Morocco delivery was approved several years ago, but it was supposedly Biden who made that decision.
Of course, there is a pile of Bradleys and Abrams to send even if it won’t be as many as we hope.
We will see now what decision Sirsky makes going forward, but I think they are showing their teeth in Avdiivka, which is a good start.
If Ukraine can just get that damn materiel and ammunition, they will of course win; the fact that Russia cannot protect its oil industry while Ukraine shoots down +90% of Russian missiles is already a crushing defeat. Add Russia’s laughable production of tanks, artillery, and aircraft in 2023 compared to what the West can send, and anyone can understand that Putin will have to throw in the towel sooner or later. There is a high probability that this war will end in 2024 if the West calms down and Budanov is not held back – he must be allowed to carry out even his spectacular raids, and different areas must be encouraged to seek their freedom under international law.