13:27 – Johan No.1
The below should not be misunderstood and it is on topic, I have scrubbed party affiliation.
Now that there have been some accusations of “Russian influence” against all kinds of politicians, which is quite absurd but was of course an attempt at defamation, I thought I would remind how it looked during the Cold War. Everyone who has read this thread now roughly knows how the Russians operate, the subversive tentacles are very far in and it is a state-prioritized function where they do not shy away from murder. Ask the defected helicopter pilot in Spain or Budanov’s wife.
If we disregard the obvious – communist parties that were open about their loyalty and the umbrella socialist parties in Europe that were driven by the Soviet Union, there was much more going on.
The study trips to the GDR were under the umbrella of the Russian security service, and they immediately started working on recruitment. Note – I am not saying that a certain person is a Russian agent – they are probably NOT a Russian agent.
You can see from patterns of behavior where loyalties lie over time, and right now the opposition is driving Gripen; if they were Russian agents, they wouldn’t be pushing for Gripen but would behave like Scholz.
The Russian embassy recruited wherever they could in Sweden, and exchange students or those who took courses in the Soviet Union and the GDR or otherwise had contact with communist countries and their representatives were subjected to recruitment attempts.
In Sweden, it was a tense situation – there was a war beneath the surface in our archipelago, and the Soviet Union violated it. The Social Democrats had to relate to realpolitik, and much of what they were accused of as acting on behalf of the Soviets was precisely realpolitik.
But… during all these trips to the GDR or the Soviet Union, of course some were recruited, and if you have ever worked in an organization where some have hidden agendas (which they shouldn’t have), you know how difficult it is. You can’t openly accuse anyone, you have to constantly parry, and only when it becomes obvious do you act—and then it turns out that the higher-up you turned to is also involved in the fraud and manages to slander you so that you now risk losing your job.
On top of that, when things get serious, the Russians do not hesitate to resort to murder or defamation, or that this is the Russians’ specialty so that ordinary politicians and officials become completely confused in the stands.
The Armed Forces became dark blue and somewhat what we call the “deep state” out of pure self-preservation. Who you could trust in politics suddenly became very important, and many groups were formed, some more radical than others in their closed echo chambers.
Bo Theutenberg’s diaries from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs are informative, I think.
https://x.com/theutenberg/status/1761370721324851537?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/theutenberg/status/1761072186842882258?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
During this time, the Palme assassination took place, and it naturally shook the Social Democrats (S) enormously. Then, when Ingvar Carlsson moved into the Sagerska Palace, two men knocked on his bedroom window and waved. One can guess that it was perhaps a signal?
The ongoing debate about why the Stasi archives should not be fully opened says something; no white paper there.
That most of the information regarding submarine violations is still classified is also terrible for historians who want to uncover the truth. We tried to get those involved to tell their stories, but in 2022 they felt that the confidentiality agreement they signed in the 1980s still applied.
Now, of course, Russian subversive activity is in full swing again, but these are new times and the West takes a clear distance from Russia except for the extreme right and extreme left. I still don’t understand why collaboration is not punishable now that the EU has classified Russia as a “sponsor of state terrorism,” but then again, I’m still sitting playing Rise of Nations in my parents’ basement.
Many on the right or left edges have promised to tear down the corrupt elite who have then been exposed as working for FSB handlers. Right now, my Twitter feed is full of agitated moods, and after my fights with bots (which is the ultimate waste of time!), I’m starting to recognize certain patterns—they act across the whole spectrum but usually agree that Ukraine absolutely must not be supported.
My experience is that those who were involved during the Cold War and had insight usually have a much less nuanced picture of the situation than what I have written, so probably no gross exaggerations above.
There are many influence operations—the “Ukrainian na….na” phenomenon appeared quite precisely in 2014. Do we need more information than that to understand that it bears Russian fingerprints?
https://x.com/hotsotin/status/1760969954260615272?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Many organizations are half taken over by Russia or China but the West still pays everything to them. When it was understood how much the UN…A received and that half of the employees had salaries over +100,000 USD per year, it doesn’t feel entirely fair.
Here the UN has managed to train child soldiers in Belarus 😀
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1760936798023250355?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I also thought that Jan grossly misinterpreted the agreement with the USA and got “diplomatic immunity” (as close as it was) to sound like the USA would take over Sweden. One begins to wonder what he thinks about embassy staff in general?
What you must never forget when everything slips is that in Russia, we would have been imprisoned if we said the same things there about Russia as we say here about Sweden. In Russia, open opposition to power is murdered, there is no freedom of speech or free access to information. In Russia, the one with the most weapons wins every day, and various authorities compete to have the most private armies. This was discovered by the Canadian family of nine children who tried to flee the w@ke culture in Canada to the sunshine in Russia and wanted to leave after two weeks, but I think they are still stuck.
13:31 – Johan No.1
I managed to eliminate the forbidden word, woohoo.
13:41 – MatsExtrude
From eel, to hero, and back to eel. That Scholz is really slippery. Hard to know where you have him.
Otherwise, I think it’s very positive that there is now talk about sending troops.
I remember it was received very coldly (even here on the blog) when I first suggested exactly what LW writes, that one should go in and secure the northern border against Belarus to relieve the AFU. There have been others who have had the same thoughts here on the blog, and now finally Macron has brought it up as well.
Everything is impossible until it is no longer impossible.
Therefore, I believe that the Eel will give in regarding Taurus and that we will eventually see foreign troops in Ukraine. And of course Gripen!
13:57 – Johan No.1
You actually make a pretty good point there, Fram i Natten – if I may guess, Germany has some control over its arms industry and what is sold to whom, just like in Sweden, and a certain Scholz is effectively blocking it—he is apparently the worst enemy of the working class.
The manufacturer believed they could produce large quantities of Taurus in a short time, so the fact that no order has been placed yet is more than strangely odd, really?
13:59 – Johan No.1
He is a disgrace to the eel family.
We had the following proposal early in the war – take over surveillance against Belarus, air defense screen with Western-manned Western systems in western Ukraine, and a no-fly zone enforced with Western aircraft. Argus had a good idea below.
But yes, then it would be nuclear war if a single weapon arrived in Ukraine and then if a single tank, and then…
14:17 – MatsExtrude
Yes, I remember that air defense and no-fly zone were debated, but not that there was any direct discussion about troops.
It may have happened before I found the blog. Maybe that’s why I didn’t get any response, the topic was already covered 🙂
Anyway, it’s still a good idea. They have gotten quite a few air defense systems. What remains is to actively have aircraft on site and troops on the northern border.
Then I am also in favor of deploying troops against the Russian border. The Russians have no business in Ukraine, and if they think it’s an escalation to protect the border, they can think so. It’s only an escalation if they choose to cross it.
14:28 – Johan No.1
Russia stops petroleum exports for six months according to Shaun.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kmfnxzkdl32d
Feels like Budanov has dealt a damaging blow here, or is it environmental concern behind this?
14:30 – MatsExtrude
Someone wrote (I think it was in yesterday’s thread) that it’s not uncommon in early spring. Apparently, a lot of fuel is used in Russia when it’s time for the farmers to start spring work.
18:26 – Johan No.1
Operation turn off the lights in case anyone thought it was made up.
https://x.com/maria_drutska/status/1762481695100490076?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
19:19 – MatsExtrude
😅
19:57 – Johan No.1
Good grief, the Twitter feed is flooded with bots, trolls, and everyone jumping on.
Spent a few hours reporting before I realized it was an even bigger waste of time than arguing with the bots.
The Russian team’s subversive activities are in full swing right now, all in.
20:07 – Johan No.1
This is so typically Swedish, I know it was already mentioned but you really think about everything.
Hope we have a patent on this so we can become the Dubai of the Nordics.
“The ammunition does not detonate at all. There was one case when an FPV hit the turret and the shaped charge jet entered the ammunition, but the powder simply burned out without detonation.”
20:07 – Johan No.1
Sorry, I obviously stole the quote from LW above.
23:00 – Johan No.1
I have just realized that the entire West except Macron has said they will not send troops to Ukraine.
Macron probably slept through the meeting and will change his mind soon.
What is the West doing?
This is worse than the NATO meeting where they called Ukraine ungrateful.
23:03 – Johan No.1
The breathalyzer said stop otherwise I would have kept blowing for a while longer, will get back tomorrow.
(no sober weeks, damn it).
09:57 – Johan No.1
Biden is clear about the support.
https://x.com/potus/status/1762603516370067797?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
13:17 – Johan No.1
Scholz is back on red – the parliament has unanimously (well, almost) voted to send Taurus but he PERSONALLY refuses and refers to the fact that then German soldiers would have to fight in Ukraine and that argument has already been disproven. Right now it feels like his goal is that Taurus should not be allowed to go to Ukraine and then you immediately start to suspect that this is what Putin has told him to push. For everyone else in the West including Ukraine, it is good if Taurus arrives, right? The only one who benefits from not sending Taurus is Putin. Previously, the argument was that the entire stockpile should be sent and none kept – then the manufacturer immediately said they can quickly produce everything new. Before that, there was concern that Ukraine would immediately shoot them towards the Kremlin – then Storm Shadow came and all were fired within UA’s land borders. Overall, it is VERY clear that Scholz does not want to send Taurus specifically and he is the last country in Europe with missiles (well) that has not sent any.
He did this with all different types of weapons until it was no longer possible and with a bit of luck this will be the generation he spectacularly dies in his too large suit. Remember the tanks and that the US had to send first, before that it was that Germany could not send lethal weapons and then it was only defensive and no offensive. Quite a lot about German crosses never rolling in Ukraine again. He also refused to join any air force coalition. The 5000 steel helmets would have been funny if thousands of Ukrainians hadn’t died because of it.
Macron has surprised quite a bit – he does not rule out ground troops in Ukraine and since he is the third leader to consider this, it has already been discussed internally among the heads of government.
Then a missile coalition is to be formed and many countries are now scouring reserve stocks for artillery ammunition – so things are moving and it’s fun that the thread got international traction so the reserve stocks started to be opened (megalomania).
Then France is doing a Morocco and sending 4 Rafales to Croatia – let’s hope those weren’t the last.
https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1762350763529879623?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
We also hope that Gripen will be sent in a few weeks.
Zelensky is convincing here – we get support or there will be no win, that is also how I have interpreted the recent weeks’ turnaround and we discussed that just yesterday?
Throughout this war, we try not to bite on served truths but look at the situation and form our own opinion. Now Ukraine is retreating in several places and that was one of the signs we were supposed to watch. There is thus substance behind what Zelensky now says and Western countries have not dismissed it, except Scholz.
The likely scenario is thus that Ukraine is on the ropes without ammunition and that to be able to retake their land they need ammunition for most weapon systems, missiles, air defense, artillery, HIMARS, hard vehicles, small caliber and that is probably starting to be sent now, in transit?
https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1762184473838284975?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
When Denmark released from reserve stocks, it was understood that something was happening and Macron has really turned around here.
I was going to post a video of Macron dancing a bit funny probably from the 90s but now that he promises troops I won’t.
https://x.com/mylordbebo/status/1762204610364690566?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
RU losses at Avdiivka 47,000 casualties (17,000 KIA), that is a ratio of 1:2.8 which is the same as 180,000 vs 500,000, right?
And Wagner, which had sky-high losses, had 1:2.
That partly confirms that the numbers seem reasonable?
I am a bit less worried (was positively worried) now that Zelensky has shared UA losses with us.
Apparently, there are a total of 28,000 in captivity but many are civilians.
https://x.com/ninagol15/status/1761774257116451312?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Ukraine has the worst behind it, I think everyone can agree on that but Zelensky is clear – it is 2024 when this war will be decided and what kind of peace it will be. There ARE enormous tensions in the country and his cleanup was not done because everything worked perfectly. One day Zelensky et.al. will lose grip but it will not be during 2024.
It was tough after the spring offensive but now they are building up for further offensives and they have proven to themselves that they can, right, no one thought they would carry out any offensive in the spring and they fought very competently with 1:5 in losses during their own attack.
Then they get better all the time, we see increased capability and increased competence, 3rd Azov is probably world-leading in clearing trenches by now, practice makes perfect as my mother always said.
What, however, makes UA lose momentum is that the West for some reason I cannot understand has constantly ensured that things do not go too well for Ukraine, the examples are countless.
The Christmas joy over the invasion of Russia quickly turned into surprise when the West gave yellow cards. The oil terminal in Novorossiysk and people thought “now damn” and then it stopped, yellow cards.
Now the yellow cards are gone but I am worried that the West will drag on deliveries so it will be a not fully resourced offensive again this year and then the citizens in Ukraine have had enough and may be willing to give up land in the east and then Putin gets his out – welcome chamberlain moment.
Still strongly feel that Europe should have voluntary recruitment, do like the US and roll out recruitment films?
There is a lot that must fall into place this year and that Scholz still opposes Taurus will probably be his downfall one can guess but the question is why?
-We know that the GOP is hijacked by Russia which has gotten enough to obstruct.
-We know that France only wants lucrative contracts – blood contracts.
-We know that Spain and Portugal only want to take and never want to give, now Spain’s four-day week is to be rolled out.
But Germany… just a big reluctance based on what?
Belgium has also embarrassed itself but NL and Denmark do a lot, especially Denmark.
Things are moving and as someone wrote, one is probably a contraindication because politicians act only when it is almost too late.