14:00 – MatsExtrude
Thanks! 👍
14:01 – Johan No.1
The Russians are terrible at repairing vehicles, when Izyum was overrun there were hundreds with technical faults that Ukraine took over.
RU has historically had zero willingness to recover vehicles and UA usually makes sure to destroy those left standing with drone-dropped wing grenades.
Now a few months ago this changed at the Dnepr front and they did everything they could to recover as much as possible so maybe a change driven by being short on armor?
14:57 – Johan No.1
You’re welcome 👍
15:00 – Johan No.1
Unclear if missing are included, those knocked out deep are definitely not included and then there are non-combat related injuries on top of that which was 30% of those in hospital in Luhansk last winter.
Half a million seems to be the figure and we will follow that but it is above the daily list with 100k.
Then it has been pushed quite hard that confirmed killed were 50,000 and now it was 180,000.
But yes, I counted it up to 700,000 or more so a bit over 😀
15:02 – Johan No.1
Also interesting are UA losses which are lower than previous estimates.
15:58 – Johan No.1
Röpcke is ecstatic now the first Abrams is knocked out.
https://x.com/julianroepcke/status/1762126227253432651?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
16:08 – Johan No.1
There will probably be some analysis on all weapon systems going forward but Bradley has survived well as I understand it.
We’ll see what the verdict is on Abrams.
Leo has received the highest rating and CV90 as well.
16:40 – Johan No.1
Unconfirmed rumors about Putin’s mother (maybe not entirely politically correct) but good photos he probably would rather forget
https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1762007514093146278?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
17:08 – Johan No.1
Since we work with the open sources available, we evaluate them and pick the ones we find credible and then do some kind of plausibility analysis on it and when it is not such definitive statements we have had to guess a bit 😀
Now it ended up somewhere in between and some that were not counted for RU so I find both UA and RU loss figures relatively credible – so going forward I will relate to these figures.
Yep, the closest was that the daily loss figure was the total when I guessed 700k – 800k 😀
17:47 – Johan No.1
Is it becoming more than a rumor about Girkin, right?
Now that he has hanged himself.
But Twitter rumor of course.
https://x.com/yurapalyanytsia/status/1761862853856743922?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
09:21 – Johan No.1
Macron does not rule out ground troops – so we know it is at least under discussion since he is the third to mention it now.
https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1762351197497839856?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
11:22 – Johan No.1
This is what reality looked like, parents wrote names and addresses on their children with a marker if they were going to die before the children 😐
https://x.com/rshereme/status/1761807683923910710?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
It was up on the blog yesterday, now Zelensky announced 31,000 fallen, previously it was 60,000 or 70,000 fallen but that probably came from the USA. Then there were 180,000 fallen barbarians who together with the wounded became 500,000. I translated the original text so it wouldn’t be wrong.
This is probably in line with previously confirmed fallen first 9,000 and then 15,000. Then 3,500 captured and 15,000 missing.
31,000 fallen Ukrainians and 1:5 ratio means around 180,000 fallen Russians.
500,000 Russians is lower than what I guessed when I tried to add up earlier.
RU loss vs wounded is 1:2.8 which is in line with Wagner’s losses, which by the way are confirmed.
https://x.com/ocultamondiala/status/1705888245958009119?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Then there are probably non-combat related injuries during wintertime, like last winter in hospitals in Luhansk was 30% of the total number of patients over three winters and probably UA has not counted everything that is taken out deeply. An exploding ammunition depot is not fun if you are a depot worker inside the warehouse but impossible to count, right?
Ukraine has previously confirmed that 80% of their wounded return to service.
We should not speculate on Ukraine’s loss ratio according to Zelensky but I have an idea what it is.
So these are the numbers to relate to now that Zelensky has been very clear, hard to argue otherwise especially those who claimed that RU fallen were 50,000.
Don’t know if missing RU were included in Zelensky’s numbers, I think so, some possibility to interpret below differently.
“I don’t know how many missed actions they have, but I know that there are up to 500,000 in total with the injured.
1 million total mobilized for the war. That is a high number.
This is enormously uplifting, RU takes losses magnitudes greater than Ukraine in this war and “quantity is a quality in itself” does not work with 1:5 ratio, right, 140 million vs 40 million, Ukraine simply has more.
I speculate now but think that the leadership believed that the Russian army was bigger than it was – there were divisions and army corps but the brigades were battalion strong. The cohesive unit is probably divisions and they probably got orders to put their brigades on a war footing, there was probably on paper significantly more than what crossed the border into Ukraine if you count active reservists?
We like to talk about how wrong everything went at the start of the war for Russia but VDV got beaten in a fair fight and so did all the others including Spetsnaz who were knocked out by volunteers who armed themselves at mobilization depots in Kharkiv.
All the long columns of vehicles were always doomed to be stopped, it only takes one vehicle in one place to stop it and I am still shocked that Ukraine never mined the roads pre-24Feb.
The only thing that went wrong was for Ukraine at the southern front where RU had an incredible luck, they reached across the Dnieper the first day.
It should not have been possible but was a combo of (I think) that Zelensky did not order full mobilization, where units drove out to grouping places and that RU bribed the right people.
Not a single bridge was blown between Crimea and the Dnieper – absolutely incredible.
I remember when I sat and watched the film of what passed the dam at Khakovka and it was almost a rolling beggar camp. The worst equipped army of all fronts spread out like a fan.
Actually, the Russians should not have advanced at the southern front either.
When the brigades tried to drive out to grouping places, air force and AHKP were there and the same during their retreat the same day.
Getting to the right bank of the Dnieper was sensational, platoons could have defended with mining and all bridges should have been blown so they would have been stuck immediately. A tank platoon standing in a good firing position at Khakovka and Antonovsky would have stopped it immediately.
The only ones who had bad luck at the start of the war were Ukraine.
An inflated Russian ego simply and an overconfidence in themselves. Now they have compensated for this by being completely ruthless instead – those who have it absolutely worst in this war are forcibly mobilized Russians and it is not unlikely that they think dying for a bullet is not so bad. Russia has prepared since 1945 for the next big war and Ukraine has done the best they could with very little.
Right now UA is winning the war with Mavic 3 drones.
Ukraine has outclassed Russia the whole war but they constantly fight at a disadvantage and if it starts going too well, the West brakes all support, the whole war has looked like that.
The Belgorod raids were sensational and immediately the West went out and stopped them.
What I think we see now is that the West has pulled itself together – ammunition is on the way, advanced aircraft is on the way and lots of heavy vehicles are on the way.
UA is in the process of making a Black Sea fleet of the Russian air force and LV and radar are endangered, apparently all zooparks are knocked out.
Then UA has made its drone fleet resistant to EW and has an effective EW against the Russian drone fleet.
Not everything is enough for all fronts but you get full dominance where you pool your capability.
I still think they should recruit heavily out in Europe to solve staffing but apparently they don’t want that.
“The format of the end of the war will depend on this year”
I believe completely without evidence that UA has gone to the West and said that without support there will be no win. Denmark took it seriously and a few more so far. UA is preparing an offensive but MUST get materiel.
https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1761787201258442811?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Materiel from the USA was in terrible condition in some cases, Bradleys and 777s. At least you can prepare the little you send…
https://x.com/michaeldweiss/status/1761822336922050877?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I read into this with Navalny dying a natural death that UA has someone else in mind as a candidate, i.e. not the group that backed Navalny.
When Budanov speaks you should listen we have learned and Budanov has already informed us that they are in direct contact with the opposition they want to take over after Putin.
https://x.com/yasminalombaert/status/1761788072071401481?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
There IS a shortage of most things in Ukraine right now, ammunition for LV, tanks, indirect fire, HIMARS and rockets. Don’t know how it stands with anti-tank weapons and small caliber ammunition.
https://x.com/pion_2s7/status/1761793364863648015?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
UA opened their last depots if I understand this correctly but that means they are at zero soon – reality.
There is AN ABSURD AMOUNT in Europe’s preparedness stockpile, that is debatable. Ammunition is on the way now, but the West has once again, after two years of war, managed to take the initiative away from UA. If they had full stockpiles, none of these offensive attempts would have come close to the targets. Right now, Ukraine can only watch as RU enters UFA and has to stand and wait for the blow.
Ukraine is critically short on ammunition across the board, and it is very clear – we should keep an eye on if UA starts to retreat and Russian mobilization. UA is retreating now.
Do you remember how the Russian wedges were shot down kilometers from the targets in Avdiivka in October and in Vuhledar in winter 2023?
If UA could inflict the same damage again without losing terrain, this war would have ended faster.
.
Then the West simply has not delivered what they promised, according to Zelensky 4 brigades were without equipment before the spring offensive – that was one percent of the offensive reserve that could not participate 🤬
Overall, the West has handled this terribly but as an incurable optimist, I of course believe that now everything will break loose 😀
A GOP that will vote with the D in the support package for Ukraine – so two more are needed, right?
https://x.com/rpsagainsttrump/status/1761078550843502712?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Everyone has probably noticed that there were no spectacular fireworks on the anniversary like a Grom 2 in the Kremlin or the Kerch Bridge.
However, explosions have continued in war-critical industry and the oil industry, and planes are dropping from the sky. Lipetsk was mentioned in the thread, 18% of Russia’s steel production had a major fire.
https://x.com/intelcrab/status/1761193854697402389?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Here again is MXT that Russian exports have decreased by 30%, I extrapolated refining capacity myself but we have discussed that 😀
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1761821945429934362?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
A good point as good as any, Elon allows Russian dictatorship representatives to run wild on Twitter while Twitter is not allowed in Russia. The man of the people but not when it comes to Russia.
https://x.com/mcfaul/status/1762010481114652726?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
For those of you who have read the big campaign plan, you know what will happen now that UA is silent about this year’s offensive. The fact was that parliamentarians leaked it directly to the Kremlin so Zalizhny kept quiet until he resigned and the parliament was completely furious – “contempt for democracy”. You can be COMPLETELY sure that new attack vectors are on the table now that geographical restrictions have been lifted – guaranteed.
You can also be sure that there will be an offensive provided that equipment arrives.