12:44 – MatsExtrude
Thank you!
13:19 – Johan No.1
Looking at losses per day, it was highest at the beginning of the war in all materiel, but when it comes to soldiers, it has increased since the beginning of the war, after a long plateau, to be up to 4 times higher in 2023 than in the first months (minus the peaks).
It should therefore be much more noticeable that soldiers are falling in the war since the beginning of 2023, and since it is constantly increasing, it should reasonably become more and more apparent?
13:21 – Johan No.1
Danke.
14:51 – Johan No.1
It’s not often you see a smiling Budanov and survive, but today is such a day 🏆
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kmxcijum342p
15:09 – Johan No.1
You can check – no death order is issued when he has logged your IP address.
16:11 – Johan No.1
NATO takes its time, and personally, I hope that UA pilots are already in the planes just waiting for the green flag, but I understand that is hoping for too much.
Today is March 5, and if the West does not sort itself out internally soon, Ukraine will miss this year’s offensive, and if 2024 is lost, the risk increases like a rocket.
16:59 – Johan No.1
Hurrah, hurrah hurrah –
Now the ammunition has finally reached the units – the god of war has awakened again 💥💥💥
Tonight it will be Star beer and bolognese chips, I also stole a bottle of red label from the living room that was unopened, about as fun as fox poison but necessity knows no law now that I blocked the Visa card that was hacked.
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1765042555702661221?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
17:01 – Johan No.1
Now damn it, it will be boring to be a trench Russian again, and guess if every attack will be smashed before they have even come half a mile to the attack targets again. It will be Gallipoli all over again all March.
17:03 – Johan No.1
The assembly points will become graveyards.
17:04 – Johan No.1
Praise the tax refund.
17:16 – MatsExtrude
🤣👍
11:49 – Johan No.1
The Lions,
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1764719876067774875?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I have asked a few times in the thread where RU’s older ground attack is, here came a video of six of them so the answer is that UA focuses primarily on the FAB bomb droppers. That was settled.
https://x.com/jamie04381095/status/1763308037492629862?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I now want to highlight that the two KA-52s reported knocked out in the attack on Crimea and then the attack on the other airfield with presumably damaged aircraft have not been included in the daily death toll at all. All aircraft shot down always come with it, so this strengthens our assumption that those knocked out deep inside are not counted in the statistics and some weeks there are huge campaigns in nearby oblasts or occupied areas with presumably many deaths.
We’ll see if there will be a helicopter and a ship sunk tomorrow as there was one on the patrol boat.
Gregg wrote “Enemy activity in the Lyman area decreased significantly, this because a lot of troops have been moved to the Bakhmut area.”
A signal as good as any that RU is starting to run short on strategic reserves. The other was that they emptied Belarus of Russian units.
Maybe it won’t be the Oskil river this time either and then there will be no offensive on the northern front.
The focus seems to be on Bakhmut and front straightening on the southern front, like retaking what was lost in the spring offensive?
Russian command seems to be like this: “someone” (Putin or someone else) gives an overarching goal which the command breaks down into a number of sub-goals.
Avdiivka was probably a political goal.
I think they want to take Luhansk Oblast and for that they need to take Lyman.
Then there also seems to be some front straightening thoughts behind it all, to get a favorable frontline to try to freeze.
These are broken down into – take Ivanivske, take Klischiivka, take Chasiv Yar and some CAA probably gets that mission.
Then the brigade commanders get assigned tasks and they go on for a few weeks until the brigade is wiped out, new brigade and so on until the CAA is finished and pulled away.
The purpose somehow ends up being to attack daily with 250 soldiers as a brigade and if you have done that you have done your job as a brigade commander. If you don’t reach the attack goal, it’s 250 more the next day rinse and repeat. You can go to a higher commander and say “I have lost the entire brigade, I have done my part” and then you get a new job to set up a new brigade.
Then in between, it sparkles, Avdiivka was unpleasantly well fought at the end I thought, tunnel combined with all the elite at another point when attention was diverted and in fog when there was ammunition shortage.
UA keeps going relentlessly,
The Kerch bridge is now under active dismantling, a few days ago there were extensive missile attacks and now they used boat drones
https://x.com/ukikaski/status/1764780407856177417?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
A ship sunk down in Crimea, here you possibly see it explode in a fireball.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kmwjmcxhmz2d
Patrol boat is a bit poorly described, almost 100m long.
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1764799593257050479?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Attacks on the oil industry continue and in Belgorod there are oil depots for the war that have burned down. If you remember, we reasoned that they first knock out the refinery operations which seems to have gone well since they introduced a 6-month export ban and then they would go after all the depots for the war.
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1764909732173668485?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I always like stuff like this, now it turns out that the country USA does not politically persecute Trump because the Supreme Court has said no to not allowing him to run in state elections. They follow the country’s laws even for a person like Trump and even when a lot is at stake.
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1764671476127400303?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
This thing about there not being T-14 Armata in Ukraine is really funny.
https://x.com/francis_scarr/status/1764603143277457609?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Some extrapolated as far as production being completely shut down, I don’t know.
https://x.com/stakmaskin/status/1764630952548954467?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Pepetua keeps going with his 1:5 ratio – consistently.
https://x.com/andrewperpetua/status/1764124242738573717?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Then I was wrong, the 9 artillery pieces that NL bought from the Czech Republic are intended for Ukraine.
https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1763953883938771082?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
This has been up before but smart to have drones as ammunition carriers to the front defense systems, otherwise it is associated with life danger to try to get maintenance forward.
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1761031045892207002?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I had a sad discussion with some locals down here and they think that everything happening in Africa is the West’s fault and that it is not so strange that many countries now turn to Russia. Yes, there is an unsightly colonial legacy to be ashamed of but since decolonization the countries have been left to themselves and many have gotten worse (without claiming colonization was better!). If they now move towards welcoming Russia and China instead of the West – will it get better or worse?
If it doesn’t get better, is the EU then expected to open its borders for waves of refugees or is it China and Russia who should receive the refugees?
Is it the West’s task to provide more aid if it gets worse or is it Russia and China who should do that?
Is it still the West’s fault if it gets worse when China and Russia have taken over?
Sometimes I have days when I feel personal responsibility applies. There is a risk that the West as a collective begins to feel that all their attempts to do the right thing are received negatively and then they just stop caring.
Another example is that I see quite a lot that falls under HMF right now at demonstrations in Sweden but no one is arrested. Is the law subjective?
It is unfortunate when the law becomes subjective depending on who performs an action because then others feel negatively discriminated against. We have all learned to behave in a certain way or else it is punishable but flagrant examples that laws only apply to those who follow them do not build a rule of law.
HMF in particular has been controversial because some groups have managed to hijack it for alternative purposes it was not originally intended for (before additions) and now it is, among others, these groups that completely get a free pass from that law.
Then I want in a second rant to highlight that a certain party now manages to go too far in the politics they want to pursue, you don’t need to alienate everyone. I see a high risk of further polarization and it is driven from all sides right now both globally and at home in the land of lukewarm milk.
What is happening right now is a school class where there are two disruptive boys who ruin everything. There are 195 countries, but Russia, Iran, and various terrorist organizations start wars, commit terrorist acts, engage in subversive activities and piracy, and the whole world gets worse because of it. Keep your eyes on the ball: October 7 was a Russian operation, and the whole wave we now see playing out in the West would not have happened if October 7 had not occurred.
I stand firm that everything stands or falls with Ukraine. It is also my personal opinion that it would not be negative if Russia turns inward, but our commitment extends to restoring the 1991 borders. The West should not actively work to destabilize Russia, but Ukraine has the right on its side if they want (and they do).
From a larger perspective, we are moving towards renewable “free” energy (exclamation marks around free!) and robotization in the West, which means manufacturing can return to the West. Probably after this war, a couple of new countries will be formed in what is now Russia, and if China cannot sell its products in the West, they will need fewer raw materials, and the West has those in abundance for its manufacturing.
After COVID, it also seems to have come up on the agenda, when all material flows were stopped, to bring manufacturing home.
I see a great chance for a prosperous EU in the next 50-60 years if the cards are played right, and also for the countries that choose to have good relations with the EU.
I always want to make a case for Angola when one feels for the country, but there is room for Swedish companies to create a market there, and if one has common sense, one makes the expected profit. The country is also located in the part of Africa that is not Russian-infiltrated (yet).
But first, the war in Ukraine must be won, and 2024 will be decisive, and the faster the West supplies the materiel, the faster it will go.