2024-03-13

12:33 – Johan No.1

The Lions could have been us in the thread sitting in a defense system for two years.
https://x.com/andrewperpetua/status/1767758059651088400?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Never forget Dudayev and his predictions 😀

Do you remember that we discussed a month ago or so that “something was going on” and now this “something” has certainly kicked off with a bang in recent weeks.
Yesterday another refinery in Ryazan was hit
https://x.com/tendar/status/1767784223065141625?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

From the GUR press release yesterday it is very clear that UA is only allowed to attack with ethnic Russians and they went so far as to only allow previously captured Russian tanks and IFVs to participate. It is crystal clear where the red line is for the West and that Ukraine is following it. Everyone knows there are other capabilities behind it but they will never be visible.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3knivotcnds2j

Various reports but at least six regions were heavily bombed by drone swarms yesterday – Moscow, Kursk, Tula, Voronezh, Belgorod, and Nizhny.

Do you remember the earlier discussion in the thread about KPR (Kursk Peoples Republic) and BPR (Belgorod Peoples Republic)?
They were supposed to declare independence and a desire to free themselves from the Nazis in Russia.
What do we think about the rhetoric around the invasion of Russia, or the Belgorod raids 2.0, it is starting to sound a lot like a liberation movement for freedom-thirsty people’s republics.

Here you have the violent invasion, wave after wave surging forward.
https://x.com/officejjsmart/status/1767488114010751234?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

And here we have the pep talk which I think is very well directed.
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1767459871916728732?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

RU has entered four locations in total
https://x.com/breakinguanews/status/1767483937545134143?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

And here is the defense (whole) of Belgorod which is more upset with the Kadyrovites than with Ukraine
https://x.com/jarekkuczko/status/1767554666571915328?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

I believe it strikes a chord with liberation fronts all over Russia who want nothing more than to regain their statutory freedom and be decolonized.
If they see successes in Belgorod and Kursk, they realize that the time is ripe for a popular uprising, presumably?
But now of course the invasion of Russia has not yet passed the border villages so everything is in its infancy, way too early for any celebratory beer.

And above all – it is also most likely just a raid before the election to shake things up. However, I am always of the opinion that you should take the opportunity and if the Russians flee, you push before they reinforce.

But does it have to stop at KPR and BPR – can’t we get a dozen more people’s republics?

The ethnic Russian units reported yesterday that the Russian resistance collapsed immediately which is promising.

We must not forget Belarus, the country was on the verge of falling to a popular revolution before the Russians sent in large numbers of internal troops who tortured all demonstrators to death until it stopped.
We don’t really know where the army stands but you remember the VDV colonel’s speech early in the war?
The Khalinousky regiment naturally has a mission in Belarus similar to the ethnic Russian units in Belgorod and Kursk.

Anyway, the first goal has already been achieved – this is happening a week before Putin’s re-election as president and he looks weak.

I like to look at the longer perspective – UA are superheroes in many regions that hate the colonizers and how they behave. Now is the only time in the next hundred years that RU is so weakened that liberation is possible and of course everyone knows that.

Ukraine has contacts with all liberation fronts in Russia and an opposition they consider reasonable. They did not see Navalny as an opposition they wanted to work with, by the way.

If there is a simultaneous uprising in about 20 regions, the colonizers have no chance to sound the alarm. The freedom fighters will be surprised to realize they have won their freedom in a few days.

The rhetoric being pumped out is such that it calls to cast off the shackles and fight against the torment. The last battle to free the oppressed class from the satiated bourgeoisie. As someone wrote in the thread yesterday – almost enough to make a song out of it.

I steal from the internet.
Russia is a federal republic divided into 21 republics, 6 “krays” or federal territories, 2 federal cities (Moscow and St. Petersburg), 49 regions, 1 autonomous region and 10 autonomous areas1. The republics of Russia are 21 territories that each constitute a fed

-A patchwork that, and if I remember correctly, under 80% are ethnic Russians so over 20% do not feel affiliation. -Then we have the six ethnically Russian oblasts near Ukraine that will certainly want to belong to the UA sphere going forward which will create enormous job opportunities as they get a way into the EU for their products.
-Then Kaliningrad which will become demilitarized and autonomous.
-St Petersburg which has already signaled interest in autonomy.
-Then maybe the 11 autonomous areas want to become even more autonomous?

All it takes is a spark and Ukraine is standing with a can of gasoline lighting around the whole house as usual.

I think it’s a bit funny that “all of the West’s SOF” was not completely pulled out of thin air with what has now come out if you believe the Pole who thanked all Western capabilities in Ukraine. It will be fun when history is written after the war how extensive everything we guessed was.

-I don’t think UA’s low point was a show for the galleries, it was a serious situation, but now UA is out of the slump.
-They just took the initiative on the northern front.
–Have you noticed that there are flights into Belarus, what is that?
They have reinforced at Krunky.
-They have stopped the Russians everywhere else.
Looks good.

I’m running a good way ahead but if you listen to what is being said there is a plan to break up Russia into “people’s republics”. Putin is an absolute id1ot, while he is planning his election victory and the menu for the victory dinner, Ukraine and some in the West already have a plan to get Russia to turn inward and break up and it started actively in 2024.
https://x.com/eeldenden/status/1767572925719118247?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

This will end in about a dozen new countries and many others with great autonomy, we can be completely sure of that and the countdown has just begun.

UA no longer fights with their hands tied and now all ammunition, including ATACMS, is coming so it will be a very bloody year until RU gives up its attempts to colonize Ukraine.
And then when RU turns inward it will be turbulent for a while and finally we will have many new beautiful happy countries with prosperous world citizens instead of ethnically cleansed indigenous peoples.

A cry for help from the 810th Marine Infantry at Krunky, they are tired and worn out
https://x.com/albafella1/status/1767589618130505737?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

The USA seems close to passing its support package for Ukraine now, alignment has been corrected. Regardless of that, they have sent JDAMS and now the same ATACMS that took out 25 helicopters on a dark night a few months ago – both weapons are a significant capability boost.

Where is the Russians’ missile rain revenge? They are losing refineries and Ukraine is invading Russia but no missile rain, is eye-for-an-eye not fun anymore?

Here you have some liberation front in an Oblast biding its time.
https://x.com/tweetforanna/status/1767503075017740686?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

and the bus station in Belgorod is closing, they probably don’t want civilians to start fleeing and telling relatives what is happening, maybe it’s too embarrassing?
https://x.com/lassaperd/status/1767539567148593413?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

But civilians are fleeing the city of Belgorod anyway.
https://x.com/officejjsmart/status/1767571211620381158?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

This is what it looks like when you start running low on armor or fragmentation protection to mount weapon systems on, voila – tractor gunnery is back.
https://x.com/trip_to_valkiri/status/1767615888708997200?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Perpetua with another huge ratio
https://x.com/andrewperpetua/status/1767758059651088400?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Now Scholz says that not even Taurus to the UK will happen and Pistorius has ordered that all Taurus must be completed. I still believe this will be the hill the defection dies on.
https://x.com/yasminalombaert/status/1767313818269417946?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

When Ukraine wins this war and Russia turns inward, the world will be better. The month that has passed since we in the thread felt something was in motion has been eventful to say the least.

Every time refinery explosions fail to happen, I am consumed with worry that the West has relapsed, but that was certainly not the case here, and invasion of Russia is now allowed so all is forgiven.

It is only Scholz in the West who is holding back now, which is good, and the US support package no longer holds them back.

-positive-positive

14:28 – MatsExtrude

Thanks for today’s positive-positive reading!

14:43 – Johan No.1

Gerasimov has been posthumously fired 🤣🤣

https://x.com/noelreports/status/1767906506681340139?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

15:19 – Johan No.1

Thanks yourself 🧐