11:26 – Johan No.1
Acts of liberation in ten regions according to the source below that I cannot evaluate.
https://x.com/officejjsmart/status/1767483590810476559?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
12:00 – Johan No.1
Today is probably not a good day for Putin, he is probably screaming at all kinds of commanders for air defense and the defense of Belgorod and Kursk right now and threatening with dismissals.
There was also reportedly a violent strike against the oil industry yesterday as well as many other targets, and there is some risk that Budanov has gathered enough to last until Sunday?
The Kerch bridge is somewhat dependent on whether they have enough naval drones and missiles unfortunately, but an underwater operation with ROV or dry submersible and divers is not entirely unreasonable either, or another truck on the bridge.
You should always listen to Budanov and then always remember that they like to start something as far apart as possible all the time. Now RU must counter the northern front while solving the task Putin has assigned them and then UA will strike at a new location and everything will be chaos again.
12:03 – MatsExtrude
Thanks for staying positive-positive!
I hope for a successful spring offensive but I waver a bit, suspecting there might not be a major counteroffensive until late summer/autumn.
But it depends entirely on the West of course, the best would be if it could be pushed back as close to the so-called election as possible, because I think the Russians will lose momentum then.
12:46 – Johan No.1
Now damn it, we are invading Russia 👊💥💥
https://x.com/officejjsmart/status/1767488114010751234?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
12:46 – Johan No.1
A blue-yellow (but ethnically Russian) wave
13:01 – Johan No.1
Call for revolution in Russia now subtitled
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1767459871916728732?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
13:52 – Johan No.1
Yep, the elite air units are probably the critical line and July for F-16s is more than a bit too late 😐
13:59 – Johan No.1
To summarize the invasion of Russia –
-Three different units, strength unknown but they probably each have a training point if I may guess?
-At least two locations are fighting, Kursk oblast and in Belgorod oblast.
-Tank has been filmed.
-One aircraft shot down so air defense capability involved in the offensive.
-Heavy use of drones for indirect fire.
This feels more ambitious than the previous raid and above all, according to the blog post, the Russians have retreated somewhere.
It is a very sparsely defended front where most is around the city of Belgorod or east of it while the attacks are gone in Kursk oblast and in the western part of Belgorod oblast.
Are there local liberation fronts that will rise?
Are there partisans?
Is there (all of the West’s) SOF deep behind?
14:20 – MatsExtrude
If it ends with them only getting six, one gets exhausted. Hopefully, the forecasts are much worse than reality.
14:47 – Johan No.1
GUR clarifies the concepts about the invasion of Russia
https://x.com/anno1540/status/1767547386245595585?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
14:50 – Johan No.1
It is VERY very clear that the West has drawn the line at Russian volunteers 😀
But nice of our morally superior giants that they did not oppose it, we are grateful 🙏
14:52 – Johan No.1
The invading Russians also only have tanks and IFVs that they previously captured from the Russians 🤣🤣
19:00 – Johan No.1
Someone broke into a broad smile today
https://x.com/heliosrunner/status/1767508174679015565?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
19:09 – Johan No.1
Don’t dare to bet that this is genuine but it could be, and if so, it’s not a small raid
https://x.com/andysch64494719/status/1767589098774990975?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
19:13 – Johan No.1
Unclear as said, maybe staged given the comment with another video?
22:14 – Johan No.1
Jdams are on the way and now there will be both atacms and cluster grenades
https://x.com/ukraine_map/status/1767657979870847303?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
06:35 – Johan No.1
Raffimaderi in Ryazan heavily bombed 💥💥
https://x.com/tendar/status/1767784223065141625?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
06:35 – Johan No.1
Yes, only second 😎
06:44 – Johan No.1
Perpetua 😳
https://x.com/andrewperpetua/status/1767758059651088400?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
07:20 – MatsExtrude
There were many losses but about 1:3 is still pretty okay.
10:59 – Johan No.1
The Lions,
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1766937140783394863?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I thought I’d start today’s post with “As said, it will be fun to see what Budanov has in store for the election. It should be infinitely easy to stir up emotions in this election” – and then Maxo comes with this year’s news this morning
The Belgorod raids 2.0 have just started according to the link Maxo posted, which also had video evidence of a tank with the Free Russia flag and reportedly they have also entered Kursk oblast.
I was sitting in the car listening to the pro-Russian explanations while watching the video and immediately felt the morning got much better.
This will shake the internet so I’m jumping on this.
https://x.com/GloOouD/status/1767428918913495064?s=20
According to the poster, it is three of the Russian volunteer units, Freedom of Russia, Russian Volunteer Corps, and the Siberians. So it should be a few thousand and they have entered with tanks and these are very capable units after two years of war.
The liberation fighters’ organizations have issued press releases that the liberation of Russia has now begun – workers shall be freed from poverty and fear, the chains shall be broken and they will rise against the oppression from the well-fed bourgeois. Bourgeois no more. The irony is almost as complete as Svea Inkasso having stopped payments and risking bankruptcy.
Putin’s arrogance in not reinforcing the border – one is actually stunned 😲
This can only mean that the West has not given a yellow card, some suspicion that they have approved Russian citizens to participate since only all the volunteer units are involved but that is enough – these are veteran units and in the thousands.
Dare you guess where the Khalinousky regiment is or will appear soon 😀
You do remember Zelensky’s speech the other day where he said Russia had taken over Belarus so it is no longer a free country.
Now we have just confirmed what we have long suspected, that Ukraine fought with one hand tied behind its back throughout 2022 and most of 2023 and we know why – you understand just like I do that this information has come out for a purpose, right?
The oil industry is burning, and there were a couple of new liberation acts last night against both a refinery and an oil depot, as discussed in the thread, signaling to me that the West no longer gives yellow cards because the oil industry should be the reddest of lines for Putin.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3knhzc53cvi22
We have discussed that a likely attack vector is the northern front as pressure needs to be relieved down in Ukraine ahead of their own offensive but it is a bit too early for that?
A wild guess is that this raid aims to disrupt the presidential election but I guess they will keep going as long as they can – we will know within a few days how this goes.
If the aim is to disrupt the presidential election, one would reasonably want maximum publicity, right? It should be visible and continue throughout the election if possible.
Within a few days, we will also know how many units Russia has kept up on the northern front – how much they have left of their strategic reserves.
This is as well orchestrated as the last raid and a firecracker as good as any.
My day immediately got much better, invasion of Russia cheers me up 🤣
After Belgorod raids 2.0 and continued burning refineries, I dare say – we have not seen all the firecrackers before the election yet. That they have already tried two attacks on the Crimean Bridge makes me dare to predict in my swamp.
The fact is that Ukraine is doing everything they can here, all that’s missing is a Grom 2 in the Kremlin but the West probably hasn’t let go of everything (yet) and some points on Budanov’s list still have red cards.
Ahead of the election, I expect more hacked information, more hacked TV broadcasts, local elections to have Putin-hostile winners, protests everywhere, national TV declaring a different winner than Putin or Putin getting 120% of the votes – all to stir things up maximally.
Putin, in his absolute arrogance, has exposed his soft spots and it would be a dereliction of duty by Ukraine not to exploit this fully – and it seems today they intend to make the best of the situation.
Yesterday, Ukraine carpet-bombed the Russians’ missile depot in Volgograd, it is unclear if it was intentional or downed drones but if I understand this correctly it is the same depot they were worried would be captured from the first Belgorod raids and this should be an even redder line than the oil industry, reasonably?
https://x.com/ukikaski/status/1767138519875539058?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
We cannot stress enough the importance of Gripen coming to Ukraine. Russia has gone all-in with their FAB bombers and these bombs are terrible – a hit in the middle and whatever was in the bunker is buried. They can wipe out a platoon with one bomb in the worst case.
It is also my conviction that UA will win the war if they knock down the last tired mask in the whack-a-mole that is the FAB bombers. RU has no other trump cards left, the artillery, tanks, helicopters, and the units’ work experience and expertise are all comfortably under UA control.
Poor condition of the Russian defense according to this video and don’t forget Putin has scared all negative voices into silence.
https://x.com/togajano21/status/1767265300653760831?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The situation is such that Ukraine has survived its defensive battle since early autumn when the West totally abandoned them, all deliveries of ammunition and vehicles were stopped and defeatism spread in the West like wildfire. If you want to be conspiratorial, maybe it was an attempt to force Ukraine to the negotiating table but I do not intend to speculate on that and if so we will find out eventually.
After New Year, Macron tripped up an otherwise very slow Scholz and took the baton and is now running as fast as he can.
Putin has always said that if NATO stops supporting Ukraine, Russia will win in three weeks – we saw how that went 😀
Now ammunition has arrived at units and it immediately reflects in the daily losses, and since the Russians’ strategic reserves are worn out, it can only get better.
There are very clear signs that several countries in Europe are running trains with heavy equipment eastwards. My guess is a lot of fragmentation protection in all its forms and ammunition.
https://x.com/paulconro/status/1767181626113392980?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The fighter jets are probably the critical line for a “major offensive” but as we have written, they will always carry out “smash-and-grabs” where they can like now up in Belgorod.
My evening prayer is always partly that the beer doesn’t run out but also that the fighter jets arrive immediately and for the second time in this war Sweden has the chance to distinguish itself and be canonized if Gripen arrives soon, preferably before the F-16.
A diplomat says that RU is using Scholz as a useful idiot. Consider how carefully one tiptoes around other countries’ heads of state and especially the big dragons, so this is quite explosive but aligns with how other leaders in Europe now perceive Scholz.
https://x.com/nijhuisclaretta/status/1767317012982714615?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Apparently two A-50s were damaged according to official UA sources.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3knh6eslxeu2h
At the risk that this is not a credible source, the Pope apparently now believes that NATO provoked this war. As someone said in today’s thread, it will be interesting to see if the defector will go out and ask Belgorod Oblast to surrender to avoid a bloodbath and save the children – obviously not, and a hell of a hypocrisy from the Pope 🤬
https://x.com/rshereme/status/1767264024062755081?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The Pope also does not practice what he preaches, no turning the other cheek here – video evidence.
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1767119981945221339?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Remember the 20,000 – 50,000 amputees, which immediately became 50,000 in the thread. UA has previously stated that 80% return to service and I thought those were lighter injuries, but below you see two soldiers with prosthetics who are in combat units. The world’s best infantry, as said…
https://x.com/sanderregter/status/1767134400871882792?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/small10space/status/1767170040242073998?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
My opinion was that it was Patriot conducting hit-and-runs against the elite air units and then I wondered if it could also be MANPADS and SOF. If it was a Patriot that was knocked out, that would strengthen the thesis that they were used close to the front?
David D was completely excited when it happened.
One thing that worries me a bit is that RU is flying even more FAB missions than before but lost aircraft are conspicuously absent. Maybe the knocked-out Patriot made UA more cautious?
https://x.com/warvehicle/status/1767228118689841392?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Rumored that Teplinsky has died – Twitter rumor and not to be taken too seriously.
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1767222046616949050?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Also rumored that the Germans have agreed to send Taurus to the UK so they can clear out all the SS and send them to UA – Twitter rumor and not to be taken too seriously.
https://x.com/rshereme/status/1767187390303486380?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Ending with a -positive-positive, it seems like the USA might come through in the final round.
https://x.com/officejjsmart/status/1766883319357325725?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I must admit that everything looks terrible right now for Putin, a week before the election “operation make Putin look weak” (yes Dengamle chose that!) is starting in earnest with the invasion of Russia and maximum PR, plus the refineries are burning again.
Macron is completely unreasonable in his rhetoric against Putin and that can only be interpreted as a hard policy shift from one of Europe’s big dragons.
There were a couple in the thread who thought we wouldn’t see any UA offensive for many months – UA is presenting the invasion of Russia instead.
The feeling is that the sluice gates have opened and several countries in Europe are currently sending the materiel UA needs and ammunition eastward by train. It is timely for a spring offensive.
As I said, I am quite burned out after two years but trust that the elite air units will arrive in time for UA’s planned offensive here.
Meanwhile, RU will exhaust itself against Kupiansk, Chasiv Yar, and down at the southern front.
Will return when I figure out what tops the -positive-positive.