11:51 – Johan No.1
Now I have probably bodyshamed everyone with too big ears, rat faces, low foreheads, and clothes that are too big, so as a preventive measure I sincerely apologize, the purpose was to bodyshame Putin.
11:53 – Johan No.1
Yesterday the submarine cable off the Ivory Coast was damaged and all of West Africa has internet problems including Johan No.1. It shows how vulnerable the world is and when countries like Russia get the feeling they can cause incredible damage. Many cables in the Baltic Sea have been cut and the Houthis have cut submarine cables in the Black Sea.
12:11 – Johan No.1
This is about thinking about the whole problem and trying to find a solution – it is probably impossible and above all the number of different outcomes is too many.
I see it as the West’s commitment to restore the 1991 borders and to welcome Belarus and/or Kaliningrad if they have popular revolutions UA style.
If Russia turns inward and breaks up, the West should not push at all but stay away until countries are formed that are internationally recognized and then we can have exchanges.
12:47 – Johan No.1
The defector Scholz is the one who has summoned Macron and Donald Tusk to Berlin.
One might suspect that he will try to calm them down and that it is negotiations he wants.
We should watch the press conference.
13:04 – MatsExtrude
Thanks!
That’s right, if you wait to get back about the refineries maybe 50% of the capacity will have been knocked out by then! 😉
13:56 – Johan No.1
I’m licking my wounds for a while and then I’ll be back with a bang.
14:09 – MatsExtrude
I’m counting on it!
14:10 – Johan No.1
Having internet problems so trying again.
Want to put it in perspective since the West has deified Navalny.
My take is that there are different factions in Russia that want power after Putin, Patrushev is a candidate, right?
Ukraine likes none. They themselves have said that they have contacts with the opposition and work with them so to me it looks like they are aiming for some kind of popular uprising?
Then anything can happen and most likely the next candidate in line will take over.
07:21 – Johan No.1
Two refineries in Saman heavily bombed
https://x.com/friaukraina/status/1768874291431379041?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
07:22 – Johan No.1
Perfect, just number two 😎
11:50 – Johan No.1
This is the man who wants to conquer the world and who is currently devastating Ukraine, a small low-browed man with a rat-like face, too big ears and far too large clothes.
https://x.com/juliapod_art/status/1768221779267391924?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Then Gerasimov has been seen at a polling station with Shoigu 😐
Read everything about the invasion of Russia as an influence operation – UA is trying to amplify this to the maximum and half of it is hot air. From my side, it might be a bit less honorable argumentation and more about attacking everything here 😀.
We can assume that the invasion of Russia will continue at least until the election. The timing is a bit strange for UA offensives on other fronts, so presumably the purpose is to disrupt Putin’s re-election as much as possible.
We also don’t know what the West has morally approved – does it have an end date, are they allowed to enter the cities Kursk and Belgorod, and so on…
In Belgorod Oblast there is unrest, internal refugees, panic, anger and all that good stuff in the days before a presidential election.
We have reports of air landing (probably 1 helicopter 😀), we know that tanks are participating, we guess that all ethnically Russian units participate together with Icherian and Al Mansour (right?).
According to Deepstate, they have penetrated in five places and in two places are moving forward which suggests that the defense has given way.
We have pictures of prisoners and abandoned Russian vehicles and according to Russian sources, units with conscripts are involved. Also, we saw some video of something like home guard who were more angry at the Kadyrovites than at Ukraine.
Yesterday there were reports that they infiltrated the city of Belgorod and it seems to be unrest in Kursk as well. Deep infiltration is almost given to cause maximum unrest.
Now we are probably on the third day and RU should have their task forces on the way to all five points now – anything else would be negligence.
The question is of course what they have in their grip?
I will hold off until after the election since there are too many unknown factors about the purpose of the operation.
However, we have had a diversionary offensive at the northern front which is likely and it has so far been held back by the West is a reasonable assumption and it now seems to have changed so that it will be lively there going forward is probable.
Also notable that we have not heard from the Khalinousky regiment yet, they would have been sure to participate if they did not have another mission somewhere further west probably.
In Belgorod the popular uprising is mobilizing, let’s see who they start shooting at 😀
https://x.com/banderafella/status/1768353902749949971?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Macron’s speech was refreshing and when his PR staff understands what the media will latch onto, clarifications will come – normal.
Then the psyops came immediately – France naturally has a regiment or two in Romania intended to support Moldova if needed and then it became “France sends troops to Ukraine via Romania now” and UA sources jumped on that too quickly and it became a truth.
Now there is great concern about the RU summer offensive which will be very violent – with which units then and with what equipment?
Borell is right that the war will be decided this year but RU has hardly prepared an offensive reserve yet for this summer.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1768361901417746806?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Putin will need to mobilize after the election and he now has less of everything and my guess is that he tries to solve this through occupied territories and minority peoples once again.
I think the minority peoples should take action at some point and turn their weapons against the colonizers but then again I don’t understand Russia either.
The other thing being dangled now is nuclear weapons, every day we read something new and now it is that RU has moved tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus.
That is old news and happened probably in autumn 2023?
And that the USA now has irrefutable proof of it – yes we already knew that but it changes nothing in essence or how.
Eyes on the ball West.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1768456411212591306?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Red card for all of Germany now, the ruling party goes out hard and wants a ceasefire (frozen fronts) and negotiations. I understand that Putin was confident because he has been able to control Germany and the USA here. It is also strange with the blockade in Poland but they seem to be able to solve it somewhat.
The reason Scholz is not allowed to send Taurus is that all other capabilities, except for special aircraft, can be sent by other countries so that it doesn’t look too suspicious he is allowed to approve IFV, MBT, artillery and ammunition. Putin absolutely did not want special aircraft so that was a red line and Taurus he is terrified of – also a red line.
He of course received instructions to delay everything as long as possible and then open the tap.
At the same time as he verbally condemned the war and all that, but since it was directed at Putin it was ineffective because Putin had the truth.
Summary Taurus – the manufacturer can quickly deliver new Taurus, German soldiers do not need to be exposed, it is not a new capability that does not already exist in Ukraine and the UK has proposed that they get Taurus and send their Storm Shadow to Ukraine.
My very free interpretation of what Scholz is up to 🤬
Biden eases something regarding sanctions on Iran so they can get 10 billion USD in export funds, the children murdered in Ukraine thank Biden.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1768111365883830337?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
RU or Iran have given the Houthis rockets with more bite, the West should consider sinking that Iranian ship that gives all the land-based rocket batteries target coordinates before a Western naval ship is sunk.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1768102989582025145?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
After two years of full war, the EU still imports agricultural products from Russia 😐
https://x.com/kyivindependent/status/1768033556482138233?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The Spaniards have ordered 100,000 155mm shells from German Rheinmetall… If they are not for Ukraine that order should be completely deprioritized but apparently it has priority 😐
https://x.com/jeff21461/status/1767851142665429002?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
This is a legitimate question, where are Navalny’s wife’s praises for the invasion of Russia?
Nowhere for Ukraine and Navalny’s group has never had the same goals, UA avoids that grouping.
https://x.com/victoriaslog/status/1767972739833291061?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
It was too difficult to get myself out of the hole I dug in the discussion with MXT about refinery capability so I need recovery but apparently another refinery went up in smoke late yesterday?
Sometimes you have to sum up everything that is not fun and that the West tries to play all horses all the time is quite obvious but it is going in the right direction anyway which is the essential thing.
These 8 seconds from Belgorod oblast are like soothing elevator music.
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1768345174844047758?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Then the national guard has set up a new brigade so the offensive reserve grew by one brigade.
https://x.com/militarylandnet/status/1768043851686588779?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w