13:42 – MatsExtrude
Thanks!
Regarding the distillation towers, I perceive it as one chimney/furnace can provide heating for between 1-4 towers (where two towers seem to be the most common). But I still suspect that the whole unit becomes unusable if one of the towers is hit and burns, so I completely agree with you there.
Sometimes two units look like they might be connected because there can be two chimneys on one side with one tower and then a few more a bit further away.
Regarding the huge facility, I think you are right. It is probably mostly used for refining (and might now have trouble getting enough oil to process). But that one is a bit different; usually, it seems to be a mix with more “units” for distillation than just in that facility. I’m on my phone, maybe I’ll do a closer study later, but for some, it can be 2-6 units responsible for distillation.
Regarding the 70%, I interpret that differently. I think they mean that the whole facility is AVT-6 and that it accounts for 70% of that company’s production. But I could be wrong there.
I think I see five or maybe as many as seven units (the units are not so clear, and it’s a bit hard to see what are tall columns for distillation).
Has it been revealed how many they have hit? If it’s one, they have lost between 15-20%, but if it’s three, it could be over 50%.
Or if they actually took out the entire facility…
Then it doesn’t matter so much what the status is right now. If they just continue the same way, it will soon be a total catastrophe for the Russian oil industry!
They thought their big advantage was that their oil (and gas) production could be used to pressure the West to back down. It didn’t work.
Now that they are being knocked out, it could instead become a blinded Achilles’ heel because they have completely relied on it and not developed much other industry.
Yes, by the way, they are also big arms producers, but that export has turned into a total fiasco.. 🤣
Okay, of course, they also have grain..
I’m coldly counting on a few late frosts just when it has started to sprout and is most sensitive. DENGAMLE apparently has some plan for that. He has gotten hold of a bunch of those Russian rockets they used to influence the weather.
16:13 – Johan No.1
😂😂😂😂 this one probably wins the attempt to disrupt the presidential election
https://x.com/kvistp/status/1769000206807224787?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
16:37 – Johan No.1
Elaf Ali is currently the first wonder in the world with such a high risk of consequences.
Apparently, she has previously criticized the Ukrainian refugees.
https://x.com/kakanello/status/1768758078780915809?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
17:06 – Johan No.1
She seems irritated that this apparently was an important issue for all “Swedes,” I have a feeling there will soon be an interview in a newspaper about all the threats and hate.
Then another angle will probably appear quite soon, which has come up before – that “Swedes” only care because they are “white” refugees.
It’s not very often that the depths of the people wake up, but this seems to be such an occasion.
I wrote this before I had my first beer, hence the typos.
11:59 – Johan No.1
The Lions
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1767560826272268423?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Now we want a collective West to come out and condemn the election next week,
“massive election fraud,” “Putin is not the country’s legitimate president,” videos of fraud, videos of other things.
This is course A1 on invalid elections and why should Russia be protected?
We already have the first image of an armed soldier watching an elderly woman vote.
Then we have transparent ballot boxes.
Then they should follow up with lots of news about the rampant corruption in Russia and some history about how Putin rose in St. Petersburg’s port district as an FSB enforcer.
And broaden it to all the contract killings the criminal clan engages in worldwide.
A week of broad coverage in all news programs and then volunteers can work on getting it out on Russian channels.
Of course, this will not happen because the fear of confrontation is still total.
I remember in 2022 when we started airing the invasion of Russia in the thread and many thought it was impossible, unfeasible, and that Ukraine would never dare. Now, two times later, it feels good that some at least are not afraid of Russia.
Election fraud in its rawest form, stuffing ballots into ballot boxes after closing and not even bothering to draw the curtains 🤣 –
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1768744902383616417?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
If you interpret the trolls, Macron has certainly changed course just as we guessed.
It is close in time after they were kicked out of West Africa thanks to Russia, so the connection is not impossible.
Now the old KGB-psyops gods have been tasked with going after Macron and France and it shows directly in the Twitter feed.
Germany continues to embarrass itself, now the ruling party is trying to revise history to claim Scholz stopped a nuclear war, which is pure lies.
https://x.com/motishort/status/1768388213398179922?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The SPD also stands behind Scholz and plays very dirty on the Taurus issue, almost as if the overall purpose of the whole exercise seems to be that Ukraine should not get Taurus. Why do you think that is, why is the Taurus missile the ruling party SPD’s red line?
I think I know…
https://x.com/frhoffmann1/status/1768603844643344877?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Now that two refineries in Samara have been heavily bombed, it gives me an opening to discuss distillation towers again, I feel like I have recovered 😀
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kns6jtas6c2g
After an intensive course in refinery design, I have understood that distillation towers operate in groups of 3-4 for one process and that a knocked-out tower (the right tower) thus stops that process in the section where the towers stand. Then, if I may guess, a severe fire in a distillation tower full of flammable product is reasonably threatening to the other towers in the group in that section – one should expect damage to all in that section?
According to yesterday and my guess after seeing videos of a burned-down distillation tower, it is not something you repair; it has been constructed by a specialist contractor and a burned-down tower must first be dismantled and then rebuilt by a specialist contractor, presumably?
Spare parts and a technician need not apply.
I know nothing about this but have worked somewhat near such facilities in, among others, Kuwait and it is a nest of technology and pipes so in a big fire most things probably melt together?
Thus, a burned-out distillation tower is a stop in refining of X% of the facility’s capacity depending on how many groups (operational) towers they have in different sections of the facility?
MXT – need some help but in your link below that you posted the day before yesterday, I find 3-4 sections with distillation towers, surely it is the big chimney and ONE chimney that you should look for?
If one tower is knocked out, it reasonably means that 25%-33% of the facility’s total capacity is knocked out?
Then the question is whether all sections with distillation towers are active?
If I may guess, there are probably inactive sections in the Russian refineries, feels very Russian?
Then the percentage knocked out in the refinery goes up immediately.
https://maps.app.goo.gl/3QNC6UFnkeFcdVLP7
The link is from MXT and to the Ryazan refinery which is one of the largest in the country and which supplies vehicle fuel.
UA attacked 3 of Russia’s 5 largest refineries in the latest wave now in March I read somewhere?
It was talked about 30% “knocked out” after the first wave – maybe that should be interpreted as 30% of Russia’s refinery capacity having been subjected to violent heavy bombing?
And then 25% – 33% of 30% was knocked out in the first wave, roughly – 10% of the refinery capacity is permanently knocked out in the first wave?
If so, UA hit 12% of Russia’s refinery industry over two days and if we calculate that 33% was knocked out, 4% was permanently lost in two days.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/14/7446374/
This was before the attack on the two latest refineries yesterday.
The keyword here is permanent which I am quite sure is the case.
Then I start wondering if Ukraine started their liberation feats early because in July 2023 there was an explosion at the Samara refinery. Note that it was sabotage and not an accident so relativists need not apply.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/explosion-hits-russian-oil-refinery-samara-nobody-hurt-lawmaker-2023-07-28/
And you MXT had a link to some refinery in Siberia that burned already in 2022 and the same there – explosion.
Again need help MXT but in the Siberian facility you linked to that was hit in 2022 I found two sections with distillation towers?
https://maps.app.goo.gl/h4Vhc5fJZuBNLqWt7
My interpretation is that Ukraine has been conducting liberation feats against refinery capacity secretly for quite a while but only at the turn of the year 2024 figured out that they should go after the single point of failure (which it now is not!!) – distillation towers.
Since every attack since the turn of the year has been against distillation towers, it should be possible to calculate for those who have the energy, and I suspect I won’t be able to let this go now 😀
Erik14 posted this list, 9 refineries that have been hit so my Sunday will be to figure out the number of distillation towers at the facility, assume one section has been wiped out, and then how much they delivered against the total refinery capacity.
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3knr42egvmc2h
With the two attacks in Samara, that is then up to 11, Syzran and Novokuibyshev refineries.
Then you MXT had the coordinates to the largest so you can scan the facility and I think I can get the % knocked out of the country’s refinery capacity by getting each facility’s annual output which seems to be readily available information and a total figure for 2023?
Then I steal this from Moruroa regarding one of the refineries in Samara
“On the video man mentions that “AVT-6 is done” and that “K-2 column is on fire”
The capacity of the AVT-6 on the Syzran oil refinery is 6 million tons per year. That is about 70% of the capacity of the entire Syzran oil refinery 8.5 million tons of oil per year.”
In this case, UA managed to find a point that knocked out 70% of the refinery’s capacity so the numbers I intend to work out tomorrow should thus not be an overestimate but rather the opposite.
Will see how many red-white chimneys I can find in that refinery as well.
I miss the environmental movement’s praises of Ukraine here – they are currently solving the climate crisis for the environmental movement and should be awarded a medal.
Then you really have to give Ukraine credit that they are absolute legends; they are in the process of knocking out Russia’s refinery capacity, and Russia is completely incapable of doing anything about it at all.
Another thing for a journalist to dig into could be this –
Since around 2010, it has been very clear that Russia has been building up its military and had imperial ambitions, the famous Easter and all the Zapad exercises, for example.
2008 was the war in Georgia.
At the same time, all Western countries have continued with their disarmament and scrapped ENORMOUS amounts of old equipment after Russia’s intentions became known.
In Sweden, the S-tanks and Centurions were scrapped – they would have been perfect to send to Ukraine, but the S tanks seemed to have been scrapped already in 2000 and the Centurions during 2002-2003?
Or the Pbv302 which was in service until 2014!
The Armed Forces not only got worse budgets but also got rid of all stockpiles. The cost of storage is certainly a factor in all this, but why didn’t they give everything to the Baltics then, like with our 40mm AA guns?
What I am curious about is who pushed hardest for the scrapping because there are certain similarities with Ukraine’s major disarmament while Russia was building up to half its GDP.
And then difficult questions should be asked of those who have been active on the issue, I think, and maybe some journalist might get the idea to start going through travel patterns and declared incomes and suddenly the person’s small company declared X million SEK beyond the usual just the years or the year when these decisions were made?
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1768846614569906385?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Anyway, it’s quite clear that Putin tricked the West into disarming just like he got Ukraine to disarm, and the only countries that didn’t fall for that bluff were the USA and the old Eastern states or those bordering Eastern states.
The S tank, Centurion, and Pbv302 would have been perfect for Ukraine in this war.
The IKV91 was in service until 2002.
What happened to the strv 121, are they still in storage? It would be time to run the upgrade program on them to strv 122 or the latest upgrade because Ukraine has praised the 122 as the best tank in the war.
Our MTLBs?
Then I think Sweden should get into the fight to manufacture MBTs, why not, if we have succeeded in modifying the Leo2 to be among the best, then we know what we are doing?
This turned into a bit of a special post today, but I think the question about refinery capacity was interesting and I dove deep into it.
Is it tomorrow that Putin is to be crowned emperor?