11:38 – Johan No.1
An addition to the backstabber MXT – what Gunvor and JP Morgan Chase calculate is the total or how it landed at 20%, but it is a qualified guess reasonably, I cannot read the article.
I think we have already gone through that refineries produce diesel, gasoline, JetA1, turpentine, and 3-4 other products, and it is not unreasonable to believe that diesel is a production line.
WHERE Ukraine has placed its drones no one knows, but we can guess in the right production line and that they want to get at vehicle fuel for the war – diesel. Then not all may have hit where they should, perhaps.
5% – 10%, wasn’t it 5% possibly maybe 10%, some sliding señor 🧐
11:39 – Johan No.1
I thought a bit simplified at first that all refinery was fuel, but it is not.
11:58 – MatsExtrude
Sorry, couldn’t help teasing a bit! 🤷♂️😉
Those numbers were from a while ago, before we studied in detail and got a grip on distillation columns, trays, and other things.
I looked at some oil fields and thought, those are so damn big that one or two drones probably won’t cause much trouble. But that was before realizing they targeted the columns and that it is enough to take them out to cause big problems.
You on your side probably jumped on someone who wrote that they attacked nearly 50%, although it later referred to 50% of the facilities and not the capacity.
Since then, we have come closer to each other (and concluded that it is a bit difficult to make a really good assessment).
MR. JAN’S calculation is highly interesting. 20% of the refinery capacity knocked out would then mean that about 40% of the capacity of those 50% of the plants has been taken out.
It is probably within the range of 30-50% that I recall you wrote about.
12:06 – MatsExtrude
👍
If they start running out of ammo for Abrams, we should be glad they didn’t get so many of those that risk becoming unusable.. The USA needs to get its act together soon.
Feels a bit tough with a Russia that is slowly grinding forward. Lucky we have Belgorod and burning refineries to cheer for! The latter I am really hoping for, if they can continue at the same pace as now for a few more months..
12:28 – Johan No.1
😀 yes, I take all the bait.
Overall, it has been a very good discussion that has greatly increased my understanding 👍
12:30 – Johan No.1
Exactly, I start my morning prayer every morning with “may the West not give Ukraine yellow cards”.
If this continues for about half a year more, we will see a wounded Russian beast limping forward.
12:50 – MatsExtrude
Agreed and always fun to learn new things! 👍
Found this which was really interesting:
“In 2022, Russia produced 265 Mt of petroleum products (including 85 Mt of diesel and 42 Mt of gasoline) and exported 111 Mt (38 Mt of diesel and 4 Mt of gasoline).”
Regarding diesel, they keep more than 50% in the country, but when it comes to gasoline it looks more interesting. They only export 10% of their own production.
If 20% has been knocked out, they would then be 10% short!
Sure, these were numbers from 2022 and we don’t know exactly what has been hit etc., but this must be noticeable with more expensive gasoline prices (especially if they are forced to import).
Now I don’t know if they possibly have any emergency reserves etc., so it might take a while before there is a real shortage but prices will probably start rising already in any case.
13:17 – MatsExtrude
Good point!
We have no idea what the overcapacity consists of.
If they today run a distillation tower at 60% of max capacity, they cannot just switch to maxing out to 100% if the tower has burned down. They can of course increase for the towers that have not yet burned down but there might still be some problems.
However, if they have entire plants or towers that are not used at all as a kind of reserve capacity, it is different. But I find it hard to believe that this is how it looks. They probably want to keep a constant flow in all pipelines and probably do not shut down any towers as reserve power but run them less hard.
11:23 – Johan No.1
If there is anyone in the world who still doubts Putin’s intentions, we wrote yesterday that it is enough to listen to his election speech: war for many more years and strengthening Russia. It is really time for the West to accept fate-compli here, Russia has gone all-in in this war and will not give in unless they are thrown out.
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1769500965663543665?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Apparently, the front lines are still active, Abrams has run out of HE shells and when the ammunition shortage was at its worst, we discussed that it concerned all kinds of ammunition types, including IFV, artillery, missiles, small caliber, and direct fire.
https://x.com/pion_2s7/status/1769795015809585418?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I have a small suspicion without anything to back it up, so we will have to wait until/if Ukraine confirms that the West tried to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table during the autumn and that was the reason deliveries completely stopped but Ukraine refused. We will see.
Yesterday we had another refinery knocked out, or the day before yesterday as we wrote about yesterday, so no yellow card from the West yet, which is good.
https://x.com/osinterer/status/1769714029562364378?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
China has sharply increased its purchases of Russian crude oil, surely at the lowest possible price if anyone knows how to check 😀
https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1769797141856137694?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Now that it is coming out that the West has constantly had personnel in Ukraine for arms control, intelligence operations, and training, I think “the whole West’s SOF” was a good choice of words.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3knzupl75qd2h
Now Finland is also sending combat boats, so our old thought that it will get lively between Kinburn Spit – Crimea when the marine corps was moved to the Dnieper may not have been completely wrong.
https://x.com/realdaciandraco/status/1769810128805474535?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
If you are not convinced that Scholz and the SPD have gone over to the dark side, at least Schröder now praises Scholz as a modern Gandhi and a shining star. More proof that Scholz has completely lost it is hardly needed?
It is up to the Germans to prove themselves now, they are in deep red. This will also have consequences for their future position in the EU. They have always been considered a heavyweight but when it really mattered, they were scared and are being overtaken by a rather unexpected candidate – Macron.
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1769690541468340641?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
If I may guess, I think Anna Barbock does not have many months left in office.
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1769682174058369465?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
That Scholz can barely remain in office is a mystery to me but I am beginning to understand that he has the SPD’s support; when the vote on Taurus took place, it was only a majority and not unanimous as was written?
Guess if my Peruvian colleague thinks Cuba is heaven on earth, the Cuba where citizens have now taken to the streets because they are so tired of corruption and poverty. Yes, the West often has sanctions against these countries and they get worse but it is not often that this type of country does well. Bolivia and Venezuela started their journey toward eternal prosperity by nationalizing everything and then it immediately went downhill, right?
The leaders in these countries do not live like Ulf Kristersson or Magdalena Andersson either; they were men of the people but now they are billionaires and more often than not become emperors for life after a while or appoint an eternal successor.
We also see in this war how the West can manage a war with a peace economy while the opponent has gone into full war economy and has an end date. For me, the West and democracies are not a perfect system but it is light years better than the alternatives and a system worth defending.
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1769900861080183171?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
We rang the bell a while ago that the orange man will not win the election, partly because of all his personal problems and then because the GOP is divided and that “follow the money” might lead somewhere.
Now someone has already paid a 91mn USD bond and yesterday we learned that he cannot pay his +450mn USD damages or whatever it is. His lawyers are in panic.
This is a presidential candidate for sale right now; it is not about campaign donations but that someone or some country will own him if he becomes president.
Quite soon he has presumably broken some law he does not know about and it will be legally uncertain if he can become president. But since the GOP will vote divided and the Democrats as one for Biden, the orange man probably cannot win anyway?
Cars and cisterns are today, March 19, 2024, at the war’s highest month ever – things are going well for Putin.
The monthly losses can tell a lot.
-Fewer tanks for UA to shoot down each month since October 2023 and Russia has conducted a violent, almost continuous offensive.
-IFVs vary a bit but have generally been the war’s highest losses except at the start of the war since October 2023.
Which means that the ambition with mechanized losses has not been reduced, just fewer tanks – so skimping on armor.
This is supported by the fact that those over at the Dnieper have really tried to recover everything they can when they previously just abandoned their vehicles.
-Artillery has been at the war’s highest losses since May 2023 and a fairly steady pattern of death which signals that UA has gotten full speed on its counter-battery fire and has again prioritized knocking out the artillery. This is usually done before one’s own offensive.
-MLRS has plummeted after high losses during the summer and until October 2023 – scarce.
-IFV had a peak during the summer and then has been at steady lower losses – this came at the same time as we got information that RU moved IFVs from Ukraine to bases near the border with Ukraine.
Note that RU did this BEFORE Ukraine started hitting those bases and BEFORE the West gave its permission to Ukraine to go after targets in Russia, so it is not unreasonable that they got the meeting notes from the meeting where the West agreed to stop using yellow cards.
-Soft vehicles have increased since February 2023 – no shortage thus and UA is knocking out entire vehicle parks. Now the Chinese golf carts are probably included in this figure but there were only 1500 of them so quite a lot else is also going down.
-Special equipment has been increasing since summer 2023 and signals a prioritized target for UA and that there are still systems to knock out but that probably includes quite a lot, not just radar.
-Barbarians have been at the war’s highest numbers since October 2023 and are not decreasing – there are barbarians available and Ukraine shoots them down at the rate they arrive – almost 30,000 per month.
And in addition, there are non-war-related damages and the units that have taken 80% losses and must be withdrawn.
Quantity is a quality in itself, Stalin apparently said, but Ukraine seems to be able to trim away the quantity quite well in most weapon systems, and then Russia has neither quantity nor quality anymore.
Zalizhny said he thought Russia would fold under unbearable losses, but it turned out they did not.
For a long time, we felt that the war was an annoying fly for the elite and Putin, but the liberation acts against refining capacity are not an annoying fly.
Nor is the invasion of Russia – that is what the large-masked oligarch fears most, a popular revolution.
The West has forced Ukraine to be an annoying fly, and now that they can fight to their full potential, it is unpleasant for the elite in Russia and Putin.
However, all this comes too late, they ran out of ammunition, they had to retreat, the armed forces are tired, war fatigue exists in Ukraine, and Zelensky was just forced into a major reorganization.
Ukraine is not infinitely strong, they are tired but have a nice poker face.
There are many examples of regimes that have fallen because of “rebels,” “guerrillas,” or “partisans.” In Russia’s history, no guerrilla movement has been as active as Ukraine is today (the revolution does not count)?
They carry out sabotage across the entire country and target high-value objectives with detailed knowledge.
In a theoretical reasoning where the war continues for another five years, wouldn’t Ukraine then succeed in inflicting too much damage on Russia?
-This winter there were heating problems to varying degrees in half of Russia’s regions.
-They have had the arms industry subjected to extensive sabotage.
-Their refining capacity has been sabotaged by 50%.
-There are rebel movements active in Belgorod and Kursk that they have not managed to handle.
If we spin further on this theoretical reasoning, the West could provide materiel, light vehicles, and defense in sufficient quantities so that the Russians do not get through.
Life returns to normal in Ukraine and Ukraine continuously increases its sabotage in Russia.
Eventually, Russia will crash because they have no country supporting them; they have to pay in GOLD to get support.
Worth highlighting from AndreasJ yesterday. It does not look good in the depots for Russia when it comes to fragmentation protection and tanks.
It is unclear if the remaining numbers are units that can be prepared or a total, and one must deduct 30% that are hopelessly rusted through.
https://jamestown.org/program/russia-exhausts-soviet-era-arms-storage-bases/
In Belgorod, things are going backward for the Russians, and it is sensational because now a week has passed.
https://x.com/poetic_fella/status/1769732185655751018?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
We know from before that Russia sent in a unit with the unique designation “SOF” in Belgorod; they did that after the 2023 raids.
Apparently, the RDK unit has been in combat with them and fought some group or similar, if the source is to be believed.
After two years of war, these units are very capable and have been trained by the West.
https://x.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1769956730526486997?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Russia is seriously on the decline, the beer price is now going up 👍
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1769712020570386637?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And here you have the mugshots of those who congratulated Putin, what a tribute choir 🤣🤣
https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1769648611623657970?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
It now also seems confirmed that Ukraine will not renew the gas transit agreement through Ukraine. Russia misses out on quite a bit of gas export here – unfortunate for Putin. Guess there will be Iskanders in that infrastructure as soon as the agreement ends.
https://x.com/intermarium24/status/1769625265452302639?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Large protests in Hungary now, not everyone seems willing to march towards Brussels with Orban.
https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1769625994522980768?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And here we have the highlight – some thoughts about the US designating Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. The EU has already done so, but it did not have significant consequences for Russia, but the US has much more punch behind it, and it will sting badly. To me, it is incomprehensible that the West has not already done this after October 7 when it became clear that Russia financed, equipped, trained, and led H…as to the terrorist act.
https://x.com/lindseygrahamsc/status/1769828996974309645?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The net is tightening bit by bit, the world is not fair, and the West has dawdled more than reasonably during this war, but it looks increasingly bleak for Putin et al. now.
I have declared many times that Russia has already lost this war, which they have, but it will not end until Russia leaves Ukraine to the 1991 borders, and if they are expelled, it will not end then either because Ukraine will have no reason to stop its liberation acts.
The British going out and asking Ukraine not to carry out an offensive is probably as good a signal as any that Ukraine is planning an offensive in 2024, as we have guessed in the thread. The problem is that the West has so much to say all the time. We in the thread see this strictly from a “how do we get Ukraine to win as quickly as possible” perspective and come up with ideas, and then it turns out Ukraine has thought the same but the West has stopped it. Operation Badanka was denied to Ukraine by the US; imagine if the entire VDV had surrendered over in Kherson – then the war would already have been over 😐