12:32 – MatsExtrude
Thanks!
I wonder if we will see falling crude oil prices? If they can’t refine, they have to choose between selling more crude oil or reducing production. If they sell more, they probably have to lower the price to get rid of it.
Hope it doesn’t take too many days before more refineries get visited!
12:58 – Johan No.1
That should be the consequence, right?
Wasn’t it Caesar who described how the oil cools and becomes like chewing gum wherever it is, so you have to keep the whole chain active and not store it too long?
14:44 – Johan No.1
Exactly like that, they are world champions at identifying key issues and getting other groups to jump on the first group’s key issues, or they jump themselves and point at another group.
I thought the Quran burnings were a prime example of how to whip up aversion.
What’s interesting as you write is, for example, that it becomes a big discussion that we ordinary citizens don’t recognize at all because they never participate in such things.
15:16 – Johan No.1
Another refinery was targeted last night.
https://x.com/osinterer/status/1769714029562364378?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
17:02 – MatsExtrude
Fantastic if that’s true! Don’t see any other posts about it but hope it shows up!
08:24 – Johan No.1
Now that China has just come out and declared they will enter the war if NATO intervenes, your proposal is the path to a global conflict, right?
The West has had personnel in Ukraine throughout the war but hidden – “all of the West’s SOF” as I usually write.
Entering openly as you suggest won’t drastically change anything because NATO won’t want to go and die by the tens of thousands in Donbass so your proposal has fewer positive effects and more negative effects, if we choose to believe China’s statements.
Yep, the spring offensive was a failure and Zalizhny took the blame for it. That doesn’t mean everything going forward will be a failure though.
Also, don’t forget that I have the principle of supporting and praising Ukraine every day and mocking Russia. I highlight the little in UA and slam everything in RU. Yes, it becomes a positive bias but there is a negative bias everywhere else because Putin has stamped out all negative reporting in Russia and runs his subversive operations in the West.
10:53 – Johan No.1
We got everything ahead of the presidential election, massive bombing of refineries, IT attacks, and the invasion of Russia – I think Budanov has delivered.
I’m starting to learn that the West seems to have the last word in everything and you always get worried when it’s quiet for a few days, but the rhetoric around the invasion of Russia indicates ambition and there is no reason to leave the refineries alone now, right?
And now that the emperor is crowned in blood, we remind what he did in Mariupol WARNING.
https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1769433188680585380?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The war is darker for Putin in 2024, it’s starting to feel like a bad dream and he sees no way out.
Ukraine is now going after Russia’s most sensitive industry which they cannot rebuild without international help and hundreds of billions of USD in costs they don’t have.
Even though the damages are unknown, we know that Ukraine has flown drones into 50% of refinery capacity in 2.5 months and they can comfortably continue this for as long as they want. At this pace, they’ll probably reach 100% by summer.
Then, of course, they keep track of what is needed for round two in all the refineries to completely knock out the product line they are targeting. Since the turn of the year, Ukraine has built 2,500 very long-range drones and 10,000 long-range drones, and they keep building drones.
Then there are SOF, partisans, and liberation fronts deep inside all of Russia – we know this because the liberation acts against the railway were largely sabotage as far away as the Far East and “operation turn off the lights” was also partly sabotage.
They can fly drones from much shorter distances or alternatively plant explosives like the heroes from Telemark-style.
So Ukraine is not dependent on drones to knock out the refineries as some try to make it seem that they haven’t reached some refineries yet.
For me, it looks like this: the West has given its permission for Ukraine to knock out refinery capacity and in 2.5 months they have sabotaged 50% of it and assuming the West doesn’t change its mind, they will have severely decimated it by summer 2024. The West probably has different motives for this, partly the world market price but also China and maybe India probably?
(there was a time when participants in this thread knew that Ukraine would never do anything like this because then Putin would use nuclear weapons or the West would stop supporting Ukraine).
The communication around the Belgorod raids is revolutionary, it is a serious attempt to get bigger movements going inside Russia and the observant have noted that they haven’t been kicked out of Russia yet, right, after almost a week, they entered on March 12?
Water break – does anyone feel that Putin is strong when he can’t manage to repel an invasion of Russia on five points in six days along a front he should have fortified with army corps because they entered exactly the same places as in winter 2023?
Asking for a friend – where are those 20,000 Russian soldiers who are supposed to be along this front?
Some sense that they have been pushed down to Avdiivka and Bakhmut, we floated that idea right at the start 🤣
There is an opposition against Russia and it just had a conference in Ukraine, it is reasonable to assume that this is the opposition UA usually refers to. They have built themselves up around the various Russian units that have now invaded Russia and seem reasonable.
An exile government, simply.
https://x.com/albafella1/status/1769442641186357588?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Russia is hopelessly stuck in Ukraine and they are going nowhere, they have exhausted their strategic reserves and for that, they took some fields of land and near Avdiivka they are completely unable to get past the rear defense line along the watercourse.
That’s how it looks on the ground in Ukraine and for Russia but the West remains divided for some unfathomable reason.
It’s enough to listen to Putin’s victory speech after the coronation to understand that he has imperial ambitions far beyond Ukraine.
We are at the end of March 2024 and the US aid package has still not been voted through even though the administration has managed to find other ways to send cluster munitions and ATACMS.
The defector Scholz and the SPD party want negotiations and have done everything in their power to prevent Taurus from being sent, the overarching stance has been not to send Taurus and the latest excuse is that they only have one device to program the missiles or whatever it is and that this is a weakness that makes it impossible to send Taurus. Ordering new ones doesn’t seem to have occurred to anyone yet.
The Pope likes Orban and thinks the EU should tone down.
https://x.com/michael_mct1/status/1769264578079097042?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Orban has attacked the EU, he wants to march on Brussels and overthrow the EU in his latest statement – why don’t they just leave the EU then, do a UNGXIT and live in their utopia.
If Putin wins the war in Ukraine, he gets his cheat win, then he will go after countries that are in the EU next. As impressive as Ukraine has been in this war, the West has handled its part just as badly even though Putin has found the hole in the fence into our backyard.
We must never forget that the shooting in the defense systems in eastern Ukraine stands between us and global conflict.
UA must get their ATACMS, their heavy vehicles, advanced aircraft, and missiles – then they will win this war in 2024.
When UA got the test batch of 20 ATACMS, they knocked out about 25 helicopters.
There are about a thousand of that ATACMS ammunition but there aren’t 1000 helicopters.
There seem to be 3,000 BMPs that could be made operational left in depots, even though Russia produces significantly fewer per year and that is the critical line, and in a bad month they lose 800.
https://x.com/jonpy99/status/1769272048667296054?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
As discussed, we can reasonably assume that Putin will try to mobilize now after the election but that he will try to go after minorities again and in occupied territories. We have guessed another batch of 300,000-400,000. According to previous info, he cannot mobilize millions or in Moscow Russia because then there would be a revolution and the large-masked oligarch would hang and dangle from lampposts. The only thing the siloviki are probably afraid of is popular revolution.
When Wagner marched on Moscow, we saw private jets in a string to Dubai and Putin fled to St Petersburg, and that wasn’t even a popular revolution.
Russia is on the edge here, one really bad piece of news on the ground in Ukraine and this is over. Summer 2023 was an attempted palace coup by opposition to Putin and we don’t know how the purges went among the higher ranks, only that they purged the army.
Putin has known throughout the war that the West would hold back Ukraine and actively pressure Ukraine towards a negotiated peace. When history is written, we will realize that it was Zelensky and the military leadership who resisted during the first two years together with some of the Western leaders, and that the peer pressure to give up land was absolutely enormous.
– Now Putin no longer has the European leaders on his side, even Germany is exposed as pro-Russian, and in the USA they are dealing with the problem of MAGA rebels.
– We have not yet seen the last of sabotage against war-important industry, I don’t think the West will oppose attacks on airports, nor on electricity supply or other import-export except oil.
– There are many targets for Ukraine’s long-range drones.
– The IT warriors have recently reinforced and promised renewed digital liberation feats during 2024.
– Then I wonder if Russia is starting to become sensitive to economic warfare now?
We call it sanctions, and the latest packages are quite extensive, with more coming in 2024.
Never forget that October 7 was Russia’s terror operation, and also do not forget that the controversy about the Ukrainian brothel refugees is also Russia’s war. Nor forget that the large migration in 2015 was a Russian influence operation and that future refugee waves from Africa are currently being planned by Russia.
The EU simply has a very bleak future if Russia manages to get its cheating win in Ukraine, and it is in 2024 that this war will be decided.
Now I am satisfied with my study in refinery and we return to the war, but there is not excessively much to report right now.
Then I am also done with the hatred against Ukrainians in Sweden, I noted to my surprise that the person in question was fairly accurate but felt very strongly about the P…a issue and I am starting to wonder if Russian psyops have sneaked in a narrative about UA refugees in Sweden in the groups they have influenced and that this has been the background.
Then we have this, an account which after a quick check seems to be far-left, trolling with a racist comment to the above person. I wonder how many of the racist attacks are false with the purpose of driving public opinion?
https://x.com/ruschledaren/status/1769313366600785974?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Russia is very good at its subversive activities and it is a state-prioritized function.
The criminal clan aka the state leadership carries out murders where needed, ask the defector Russian who moved to Spain, and they actively try to carry out coups in democratic countries – ask Moldova.
In non-democratic countries they offer their death cult Wagner for money and expose the civilian population to the same wave of sadistic violence and death as in Ukraine.
We know that Ukraine has its SOF in Sudan and we have heard that France together with the West will try to sort out the situation in West Africa but I am a bit worried that it has been allowed to go too far.
The USA just received notice that they must close their base in Niger, which they have used to fight I..S, Bo..o H..m and A…q..a. In Niger, it is the Russians who are in charge.
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1769391086873518304?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The easiest is probably to scout all Wagner bases (now the Russian Africa Corps) and take them out with missiles. However, it is not entirely simple to carry out this infiltration from the ground but it should be possible with the all-seeing eye (the West’s reconnaissance capability).
It will then again be a war we will be able to fully follow when the classified documents are released but we will hear about it for the next 10 years.
When you look at the countries, you understand why Morocco had to buy a lot of Bladleys and Abrams – they become an ally among West-hostile countries in northern and western Africa and it is good that Ukraine has good relations with Sudan.
Yes… it will be another time where the West will try to “democratize” countries which usually goes so-so but if the mandate is to stamp out all Russian presence and then not intervene further, that is okay with me as it is the least bad for the civilian population in these countries.
The countries were actually about to form in ECOWAS but now Russia is there stirring up everything in some of the world’s most fragile countries.
Then the pro-Russians are completely shameless, today they started posting long queues of Russians who were going to vote at all embassies abroad but it was “noon against Putin” – so there is a large opposition against Putin but don’t let that spoil a good story about Putin’s popularity.
Here is a big queue to the polling stations around 12:00 yesterday and that means Putin is more popular than ever.
https://x.com/cheburekiman/status/1769388256041255202?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/narrative_hole/status/1769392628158575042?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Noon against Putin
https://x.com/chuckpfarrer/status/1769407922855891430?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1769273388218900879?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
There was also large participation in “noon against Putin” in Russia and the police arrested and took away many.
Just like the presidential election, the country Russia is one big lie. They put all their effort into hyping their image.
It is increasingly my conviction that Russia would benefit from being split into about a dozen more countries, at least.
There is now a very large influence operation that Putin has won in free elections and is popular and that he is the knight who will take up the fight against the corrupt leaders in the West, the satiated elite.
It is Q…n straight up and if you are conspiratorially minded you might think that was the goal of that influence operation.
But what do you think about the kicker that when they did election surveys at the embassies, 5% voted for Putin
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3knw3oaa5hc2g
S
o we have now reached the point where no one in the village voted for Putin but he got 90% of the votes – that kind of thing can stir up some feelings.
I am slowly starting to feel that we are approaching a breaking point, and then I am also diagnosed positive.
We have also seen China’s other card, what is interesting is why they felt forced to show it. Putin is terrified. I don’t think that card is unreasonable, China is trying to de-escalate. That together with the previous card that they asked Iran to sit down and keep quiet is good.
https://x.com/globeeyenews/status/1769413967871463686?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
This painting is telling, the Russians are dying in heaps – some warning for dead Russians in heaps.
I don’t even know how such a death is carried out, did they walk in a cluster and then got clustered or was there a BMP in the picture and a Bradley spotted them?
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3knxf6og7zt2e
Regarding the sanctions being ineffective, here you have Italy’s increasing exports to Kyrgyzstan since the start of the war 😐
https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1768995428974948468?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Romania is building a huge NATO base, I might think that money should have been spent on weapons for Ukraine instead…
https://x.com/romaniau93389/status/1769365130217697653?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Pro-UA protests in occupied Berdyansk
https://x.com/forsigenews/status/1769116665629839481?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Right now the Russian psyops are in full swing and Putin is portrayed as a strong leader – everything is a false facade which is hysterically funny. I think Western media largely called a spade a spade regarding the election, no huge violations.
Consider that the Russians themselves see all this while gasoline prices rise, food prices double, heating in apartments disappeared for a month, neighbors were mobilized, the cousin from Belgorod calls and says Ukraine is invading, and then when the whole village voted for Davynov, Putin still got 90% of the votes. Somewhere even a Russian reaches their limit. Not many in 2000 believed Ukraine would have a popular revolution and the same happened in Belarus but Putin’s internal troops murdered their way to obedience.
Putin has very big problems to handle internally in the country and the Ukraine war is a burden for him and will continue to be a burden now that the West has allowed acts of liberation on Russian territory – Ukraine took the war to Russia in 2024.
Historically, the country has turned inward during this type of stress and we have already had an attempted palace coup in 2023.
Now in 2024 it was the British turn to come out and suggest that Ukraine should abandon plans for an offensive and focus on defense instead. In January 2023 the USA said the same ahead of the UA winter offensive and then RU started. I have lost that link now but it came from the MoD or something similar.
Personally, I think the West should stop interfering and constantly ruining things for Ukraine when they start gaining momentum and instead send everything Ukraine points to but then again I don’t know much either from my place in my parents’ basement.
It also signals that Ukraine is definitely considering new violent offensives as we have guessed in the thread.