11:40 – Johan No.1
No one has yet suggested that it was a false flag but not Putin’s false flag 😀
I think it’s starting to be quite clear that it was either enormous incompetence or that the long arm of the law was ordered to wait a few hours?
Putin tries to spin it as Ukraine after some silence and then ISIS claims the attack.
One of all conspiracy theories worth discussing is whether it was an inside job from Putin’s opposition who want to take over, the same gang that carried out the Wagner coup?
11:47 – MatsExtrude
I really hope there will be internal collapse in Russia.
At the same time, I don’t want to see it happen through IS attacks on civilians. Disgusting and cowardly!
Even if all Russians have a responsibility for what happens, they do not deserve to be murdered.
Strike against the military, FSB, etc. instead.
If it completely degenerates in Russia, while Ukraine goes wild with its long-range drones, maybe not even the Azov assault will be needed..
12:05 – Johan No.1
Worth noting MXT that Ukraine has largely refrained from terrorist attacks on civilians for two years. They could easily have carried this out once a quarter if they wanted.
Did that sound a bit jubilant? I’m trying to see it strictly practically – towards a UA win and am in no way positive about mass murder of civilians even if it happens in Russia. Same when RU turns inward it will be tough for a couple of years but I see no other way out.
12:07 – MatsExtrude
Or maybe it is China that secretly wants to try to make Russia collapse.
Partly to secretly end the war (so trade with the West can pick up again), and partly to further strengthen their positions in Russia. When the civil war has started, they can quite legitimately send in troops to help stop the unrest. They will appear as heroes and the troops then need to stay to prevent new riots.
If we are to conspire 🙂
12:11 – Johan No.1
There MUST soon be riots in various provinces/republics, it is the shortest way to the goal without passing go.
The Belgorod raids have two purposes: draw troops from UA and project an attractive alternative for oppressed minority peoples – Russia is defenseless.
12:16 – Johan No.1
That Russia turns inward – my engagement extends to UA regaining the 1991 borders.
I see the most likely scenario as it starting in minority republics eastward and that it is enough so that the central regime cannot handle it.
If it gets there, it will likely lead to a change of power in the Kremlin, another faction takes over, and there will be internal conflicts for a while when the previous faction is silenced by murder.
Somewhere here is my guess that they have completely lost grip on the war and that UA can exploit the situation to either negotiate with rebels and the army so that they leave or that they are thrown out due to lack of support from the central regime.
That is what I simply call Russia turning inward.
12:20 – MatsExtrude
I don’t believe at all that Ukraine is involved and it was absolutely no criticism of you!
I just wanted to clarify my own position regarding attacking civilians in that way. It is wrong when Russia does it and it is wrong when someone does it against civilian Russians.
Then of course that terrorist attack can lead to the war being shortened and then maybe those 130+ killed in the end turn out to have saved tens of thousands of other civilians’ lives, but that still does not excuse the attack.
12:28 – Johan No.1
😲
12:31 – Johan No.1
Yes, you can never sacrifice the few so that everyone else survives and it has also been well used by many over the years to justify abuses 😀
Yes, I am in no way positive about the attack as such or the aftermath – just see it as an accelerating puzzle piece in the bigger puzzle 👍
12:42 – Johan No.1
I can’t find words here and paraphrase Dudayev “when the Ukrainian sun rises Russia falls”.
Russia has had somewhat control until February 2022 so it has seemed insurmountable to even try maybe?
But the longer the war goes the weaker the central regime looks, because they become weaker, and with all this aversion you describe it is not unreasonable that groups in different places are just waiting for the right moment?
And a better moment than now is probably not going to come back within 100 years or so and they should reasonably understand that?
I have for a long time felt that there are sane areas all over Russia that would benefit from autonomy or independence. Cultures, hard-working population and rich in natural resources.
That riot in Bashkortostan(?) and you started reading about the area and it is incredibly rich in natural resources.
12:47 – Johan No.1
Within a couple of months there will be fuel shortages in Russia and transport and agriculture will have problems so it will get even worse 💥
All Western media runs IMF which runs official Russian statistics but since we in the thread look at what is HAPPENING instead of what is said it is pretty clear they are broke.
Why else would they have paid Iran and North Korea in gold if they had mountains of dollars?
Or maybe NK and Iran were worried about counterfeit bills?
15:49 – Johan No.1
To the guy in the thread who usually writes that Russia has lost the strategic bombing war.
Now the Russians’ latest Zircon missile was shot down over Kiev, this is really going hysterically badly 🤣
https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1772265165364342873?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
21:16 – Johan No.1
So that was why Turkey had an anti-terror operation today.
Now it is impossible to blame Ukraine
https://x.com/vicktop55/status/1772336123450147265?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
21:20 – Johan No.1
So it doesn’t seem to have been FSB and then incompetence or false flag by others than Putin remains
22:59 – MatsExtrude
Blocked from that account..🤷♂️
23:28 – Johan No.1
Potential riots in Moscow
https://x.com/anna_lena2022/status/1772320296504029189?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
07:18 – Johan No.1
Typical 😀
07:29 – MatsExtrude
Now I understand what you meant by “Potemtiella”. It was just a kind of Potemkin facade where they tried to show that there were riots underway when it was actually just old events.
09:25 – Johan No.1
Has a third Ropucha been hit?
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1772523412046422131?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
09:45 – MatsExtrude
Yes, it seems so!
“The 🇺🇦 defense forces successfully struck the reconnaissance ship “Ivan Khurs” and the large landing ship “Kostyantyn Olshansky” – the updated information about the attack on March 24 by
@UA_NAVY
.
As we reported before, during the attack, the large landing ships “Yamal” and “Azov” were also damaged.”
10:52 – Johan No.1
What is happening in the aftermath of the terrorist attack is very interesting, lots of videos showing the torture of the captured who appear to be the ones who carried out the terrorist attack.
WARNING for the following
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1771986620125757826?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/war_crimes_uk/status/1771815438244098505?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Then they have started heavy checks on citizens from various minority republics and especially Muslims.
This is probably course A1 in how to maximally anger different ethnic groups in a country.
There was some attack on a police station yesterday as well that passed by in a Muslim province and then more terrorist attacks in Russia have been promised.
Right now it feels like the Russians are lighting the fuse all by themselves and pouring gasoline on everything as well. This is starting to get completely out of Putin’s hands now which is absolutely brilliant.
We don’t know which groups Ukraine is in contact with, only that there are six liberation fronts in Russia and an opposition to the power they believe in. UA has stated that they want to help the republics that themselves want freedom. A Muslim uprising is moving in the same direction as Ukraine even if they may not have contact with ISIS, which I don’t think they do.
If Putin pours the last bit of gasoline now in the form of forced mobilization, it could get lively, he will of course start with the minority peoples first and they are then suddenly armed and can start a revolution or something else fun.
If Ukraine just keeps the pressure up in Belgorod, with heavy bombing of the refineries and operation “turn off the lights,” it could positively contribute to the negatives for Putin.
The fact that not much is happening in Ukraine right now is almost secondary to what is happening in Russia, which hurts worse. Ukraine is giving up some land to RU losses but they fight everywhere every day while an offensive reserve is being deployed.
Maxo posted a few days ago that Lukoil has to import fuel from Belarus, I maintain that the problem is bigger than assumed even if some chase me with a blowtorch for that 🧐
https://x.com/Liveuamap/status/1770763781271855118?s=20
RU drone-secured all their refineries for billions of USD but as with everything else in that sh1t country it was ineffective and UA drones sail right through.
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1771704511498732031?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Here you have a drone straight into the distillation tower, this video probably kills any doubt about whether UA has that accuracy or not and that they choose the RIGHT distillation tower because it passes one first – they know exactly what they are doing and if you ask me they are targeting the vehicle fuel production lines and that the loss in vehicle fuel is greater than we guess.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kohkcsidfv24
UA has now droned a power plant in Rostov which is new. In operation “turn off the lights” they knocked out substations on a large scale causing cascading effects during the winter but heavy bombing of power plants is new.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3koirjsaztv2e
We sincerely hope that the liberation of refineries continues here…
What is said is uninteresting, it is what happens that speaks volumes.
Possibly we have another refinery not mentioned that has been liberated in Saratov, I add it to the list. It seems RU has imposed a photo ban on all refineries and that fewer are coming out now which signals weakness.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3koj5bq7pk22q
RU seems to have pulled units to Belgorod that were stationed at Synkivka (Kupiansk) and it is thus calmer there.
https://x.com/friaukraina/status/1771802785060626679?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Possibly a new video from the invasion of Russia, don’t know.
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1771637911856840982?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Unfortunately Trump has found the money, his Truth Social has been (over)valued at 3 billion USD.
https://x.com/lindyli/status/1772051671687807378?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
A French general has creative ideas for intervention in UA.
https://x.com/deepfella1/status/1771969300032520202?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Besides all the train transports with heavy vehicles to UA, there is a string of transport flights from military bases in the West. That can only mean materiel.
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1771624579099693540?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
No switch on this at all and a Russian source but possibly heavy transports to Ukraine with armor
The observant can see that it is heavy transport and not a train so I guess this is not what is described.
https://x.com/bgatesisapyscho/status/1772027561431712250?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I now have 4 refineries targeted between March 18-23 so it is absolutely not quiet in that operation and UA just opened a new target group for strategic targeting – power plants.
Depots for vehicle fuel are being liberated continuously.
Operational security is tight right now in Belgorod but the fact that RU is pulling units from UA when they claim to have 20,000 – 30,000 in the area signals that things are not going very well for them directly.
Then materiel and ammunition are incoming for Ukraine which is appreciated.
The West must be extremely careful in 2024 because Zelensky has already signaled that this year will decide the war, advantage or disadvantage for Ukraine.
To be able to have the winning whack-a-mole, UA needs to both increase their capabilities and MAINTAIN them as well as suppress RU capabilities and MAINTAIN that. This ammunition shortage probably extended the timeline by months when RU got some breathing room to rebuild their artillery again. LV I am doubtful they can rebuild and radar coverage likewise.
Ukraine needs to get the advanced aircraft in place so that FAB bomb droppers are denied access to the fronts.
Now that RU artillery was on the decline they got creative and discovered how formidable the FAB bombs were which was unfortunate.
But Ukraine is no worse – they have received JDAM from the USA and 600 of the French equivalent – that is good ammunition when they are to break through the Surovikin line.
Let Ukraine wreak havoc in Russia, let the refineries burn and resource the next offensive and UA has completely on its own won this in 2024.
I see the Azov thrust as decisive for the war and we will get there this summer. We should have gotten there last summer but advanced aircraft were missing, materiel was missing and UA was caught off guard by the mine weapon. Now all that is corrected.
If RU refuses to throw in the towel everything will continue and UA will run its 40 brigades that are freed up when they reach the land bridge to Crimea along the southern front and the Dnepr NE instead with a detour towards Rostov na Don.