2024-03-26

10:29 – Johan No.1

The Lions
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1772353873560154588?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Good heavens, how badly this is going for Putin right now 😲

So now Zircon missiles have been shot down – the latest Putin has in his arsenal. I maintain that the strategic bombing campaign is hopelessly lost for Russia.
That was probably also why they only fired a few, they assumed they would get through the air defense umbrella?
This has major consequences because their nuclear weapons doctrine is probably no longer applicable – their missiles will be shot down (strategic and tactical, I know…).
Yes, Satan 2 has not been shot down but it crashed during the last test so it’s not operational yet?
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kojomjrfc32z

At least I remember the discussion about the Iskander cloud and how Europe was defenseless against this doomsday weapon. It’s incredible how successful Russian propaganda has been.

As we wrote a few weeks ago – the war will get darker for Putin in 2024 and that something had happened, it felt then like it was both internal in Russia and forced from UA, we wrote, but ISIS was probably no one imagined would jump into the ring swinging fully.

When the West put away the pile of yellow cards, it went absolutely lightning fast.

According to the thread’s own brilliant abbreviation MXT, ISIS has promised new violent terrorist attacks in Russia – Putin has an insoluble problem on his hands when a group has realized how weak Russia has become and seizes the opportunity in the air.
https://x.com/albafella1/status/1772238045594431758?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

To clarify – I am not positive about mass murder of civilians and it has not escaped me that Ukraine could have done this a couple of times a year but that they have refrained – even more respect for Budanov et.al and if I sound jubilant it is because it is a positive piece of the puzzle that will end the war as quickly as possible.

Over the course of the war I have discovered that the more spectacular theories have turned out to be true and calibrated me to that but that also carries the risk that sometimes you bite on the wrong information, especially if it is something that circulates in the UA camp and among credible sources. The basic idea is to praise UA and ridicule Russia and try to make it as accurate as possible and we continue with that even though sometimes we bite on the wrong bait.

When the MoD wrote that they thought UA should focus on Crimea this year and not an offensive, do you think they meant Belgorod? I interpreted it as an offensive in general.

Take the below with a big grain of salt for a Russian source but they believe that RU is now targeting GUR, SBU and other high-value targets in Kyiv.
https://x.com/vicktop55/status/1772214674626429229?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
EDIT: Erik14 posted a link from Kyiv Post yesterday so not so speculative anymore – indisputable truth not because it was Kyiv Post but because it was Erik14.

It is presumably a revenge for their refinery industry going up in smoke and because Crimea is unable to defend itself (not really Ukraine’s fault) but do you think it will lead to Ukraine increasing the pace and putting their Grom 2 in the Kremlin maybe?

To be very clear – we have seen everything Russia has now except nuclear weapons when they tried to take out GUR and SBU. Yes, they can try to cut the presidential palace but that is no escalation from trying to take out the security services.
Ukraine has many cards left we haven’t seen yet –
-Grom2
-the 200 or so Toshka-U they would have left or am I wrong?
-drone jammers.
-more long-range drones.
-sabotage or drones against nodes like Yamal Cross.
-DHL truck with TNT straight into the Kremlin.

I get the distinct feeling that this is spinning faster and faster for Putin now and that RU is desperately trying to increase the level of violence so that it breaks Ukraine but Ukraine is still just jabbering.

My guess – RU will run out of missiles in a month or two if they continue like this.

And we must not forget Zelensky’s promise of “an eye for an eye”.
And that at the right time a drone swarm will enter FSB, GRU and the Kremlin as well as Frunzenskaya making Putin look even weaker than he is today.

It seems like a third Ropucha has been damaged?
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1772523412046422131?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Anyone who can think for themselves understands that they are knocking out RU transport capacity here and the Crimea bridge can be taken out whenever they want, it was damaged after the last attack.
We already know that Crimea cannot protect itself against air attacks.
What is Crimea – presumably a death trap that will suffer shortages of everything quite quickly.
Crimea has already fallen but Putin cannot abandon the peninsula because then the war is lost so it will be full throttle as usual.

2024 finally brought the war to Putin and he does not like it at all. It also clearly shows the extent of the West’s betrayal over two years and how patient Ukraine is – you really don’t want them as enemies who greet and smile for two whole years like the best of neighbors and then burn down your house when everyone is home and you least expect it, almost Chinese patience 😲

No one wants large-scale terrorist attacks, remember how difficult it was in Europe before the security services tightened up.
Disabled infrastructure as well – refinery capacity is the very cornerstone of the entire Russian social structure which is now going up in smoke and will never be rebuilt.
Invasion is also unpleasant and UA is in two oblasts and jumping around and Bryansk is probably about a week away from being invaded and UA has gotten a lot of landing craft for some reason.
No one likes blacked-out cities either.

And all this is on top of a war that is going absolutely terribly and has far too high intensity to be manageable for Putin.
There are also rumors of Chinese economic incursions in the Far East where they are buying lots of land and building on it, whoever posted that in yesterday’s thread.

Just as Russia has lost the strategic bombing campaign, the path to Russia turning inward has begun and it is irreversible.

A lousy poker player Putin because until now he could have negotiated his way out of this – 1991 borders in exchange for Russia being left alone, the West unfortunately would have forced UA to that with threats of no EU membership.

But now it’s too late and probably it’s not the worst of solutions even if Western leaders are terrified. If we get a dozen more countries, the remaining threat will be manageable even for Ukraine in the future.
Our eastern border runs at Belarus’s eastern border and Kaliningrad will become a bit of a tax-free mecca like Turku where the ferries go 😀

We already know that there was opposition ready to topple Putin – Lex Wagner.

But at some point, his own circle will also see him as a liability when it has gone too far, and we are probably not too far from that point now. If it flares up in a dozen or so oblasts, we are likely close because that is the last thing a large-size mash tank oligarch wants.

The only thing the West needs to do right now is not to be talked out of it by Putin – at least they should be able to manage that one thing 😐

I also don’t know how large a part of the army is made up of minorities, but in Bashkortostan the opposition has urged them to leave and come home and liberate Bashkortostan, and all the free units fighting in Belgorod and Kursk have similar messages – “join us and help us liberate Russia.”
That should be an attractive message given what we have seen of how troops are deployed in Russia with torture, rape, and murder.

But…
It’s important to keep the pressure up in the pressure cooker, and so far the West has pulled the rug out every time Ukraine started to make progress, so we sincerely hope the West can refrain from that.
The bubble list is boiling, and I am willing to bet my account on Cornu that Putin is starting to have sleep problems; if I’m wrong, I’ll open Johan No.2, but no one can prove he sleeps poorly, so it felt safe to write this.

The terrorist attack is taking new exciting turns,
There are videos of 5 men all in blue shirts (discreet but for recognition) acting somewhat cohesively as a group.
https://x.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1772495111328239869?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Kadyrov is worried and has given a speech opposing the persecution of Muslims.
https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1772348942656684451?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Since yesterday, a note flew by in the media that Turkey launched a major anti-terror operation yesterday, and I didn’t understand why, but then this came out: the terrorists had been trained in Turkey. Even though the source isn’t the best, I believe the information is correct.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kolgfyckve2x

Just like H…as, the Tal…s have now condemned the terrorist attack. This shows what a blood merchant Russia is when terrorist organizations no longer get along because some work with Russia and others do not, and all are Muslim organizations.
https://x.com/erinthemarxist/status/1771982148230099419?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Here is a pro-Russian source, but it is overjoyed that “immigrants” are now being deported; whether true or not is hard to determine, but it says something about the mindset at least.
https://x.com/joiedevivre789/status/1772429952056439063?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

I’m starting to slowly come to the conclusion that this was a false-flag but that it wasn’t directed against Ukraine but against Putin to weaken him. I don’t have much to back this up with 😀
Alternatively, it was incompetence like no other, but the five men in the same colored shirts cooperating is hard to explain, and that it took over an hour to the first intervention as well.
Then again, it’s not Putin’s false-flag because his narrative is that Ukraine shot down ISIS themselves directly and Turkey acted on the information that came from RU and struck terror cells in the country.

Then I never grow up, I know, but now when the whole West is really plagued by demonstrations for P…a.
Where are the demonstrations for Russia’s oppression of its Muslim minorities?
Nowhere, because it doesn’t fit the narrative, is probably the answer to the question?

Now you can, just like me, check this off your bucket list – yep, orcas eat great white sharks 😀
I have lost sleep over this, but now it’s proven.
https://x.com/rainmaker1973/status/1772341294087450945?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Budanov’s plan is quite simple and we all know who is behind it – “if your enemy has problems, amplify them until it becomes a catastrophe.” Now our ancient friend usually also applies this to all sorts of friends as enemies, but the basic idea works.
https://x.com/doktor_klein/status/1772373333968928985?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Russia stated that they are reducing oil production to 9 million barrels per day. The thread’s own oil magnate Harr Jan wrote yesterday that production was 9.4 million barrels per day before, so that means a reduction of 400,000 barrels per day in oil production. Now the unknown factor is exports, have they decreased or increased in crude oil after the export ban on refined products?
https://x.com/thesiriusreport/status/1772295454702575861?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

When the West stopped with yellow cards, after two months came the export ban on refined products and after almost three months a reduction in oil production – what Ukraine is doing works.

I find it exciting that the US has such good oversight of terrorist attacks in Russia.
https://x.com/schizointel/status/1771890444982468994?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Already in the 90s, Putin carried out murders of people who displeased him, imagine if Kristersson had started killing everyone who wrote disrespectfully about him, Sweden would have become sparsely populated.
https://x.com/togajano21/status/1772154088106442950?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Putin and his circle are simple criminal clan leaders who should be treated as such. They also have enormous subversive criminal activities in the West and conduct extermination wars whenever they get the chance, but now this plague seems finally to have shot itself in the foot.
You almost have to look hard for a more self-inflicted fate, and moreover, the West opened the doors to the inner circles directly after the fall of the Soviet Union, so they have no excuses at all.

“When the Ukrainian sun rises, Russia falls.”

13:50 – MatsExtrude

👍

14:43 – Johan No.1

👍👍