12:18 – Johan No.1
Putin has also raised the mobilization age from 27 to 30 years – why then if there is a large base to mobilize from?
12:24 – MatsExtrude
👍 150,000 can almost be called a thumb when the first estimates came out between 240,000 – 760,000 (based on the units they talked about setting up).
Really hope France can get the rest of Europe on board so things start moving!
14:18 – Johan No.1
Yes, I was hoping for 760,000 so it would become a revolution 😀
12:12 – Johan No.1
What happened to the threatened mobilization, now Putin only dares to mobilize 150,000. That is roughly the size of an offensive reserve about which they run out in two months. I know what I believe – that Putin can’t mobilize because then there will be a revolution 😀
https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1774340886249283788?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Today’s loss list suggests heavy pre-emptive strikes on front-near rear functions such as artillery, logistics, air defense, and radar.
https://x.com/golub/status/1774303434331574789?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Right now Russia has the initiative but their losses in March were among the highest in the entire war in several categories and indeed they have taken some potato fields but Ukraine has also retaken terrain. We are absolutely not in a situation where RU is advancing and UA is faltering – it is a mobile defensive battle and UA is preparing an offensive reserve.
FAB bombers are a scourge, the air activity is almost at the same intensity as in 2022 before RU got scared and pulled back their air force.
It’s not hard to identify a fortification and then drop 3-4 FAB bombs on it and then it’s knocked out – the defense is buried under tons of earth.
It’s absolutely scandalous that the elite air force didn’t come earlier and it’s absolutely scandalous that Ukraine is not allowed to strike air bases right on the Russian side of the border with real long-range weapons.
But the world is unfortunately not fair.
During the night RU fired at least 12 missiles at Ukraine and proportional retaliation is conspicuously absent as everyone notes.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3koxsjj4o2e2m
There was possibly a fire in some oil field but I don’t think we can attribute that to Ukraine without formal confirmation.
https://x.com/lxsummer1/status/1774182864923324497?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And then there were drones in Saratov but no refineries, but at least there’s no shortage of drones 😐
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1774342770691297682?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Perpetua has a good loss ratio as usual and it is 1:5 to RU’s disadvantage which is good.
https://x.com/andrewperpetua/status/1774323676726304932?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Now we’ll see if the rest of the West follows France here, no one likes a loser but so far Macron projects decisiveness and strength.
There is much more that can be delivered, Jordan has lots of decommissioned Challenger 1 tanks and Spain has lots of M60
https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1774094125861659019?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/coneofarc/status/1774124223478239704?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
We already know that Italy also has lots of M60 and even the USA still has these. As self-propelled howitzers they would work perfectly.
France will send their VAB PTGB Renault vehicles and there are about 4,000 – 5,000 of them but it’s unclear how many they will send, they talk about hundreds. However, we have seen videos of other types of fragmentation-protected vehicles as well.
I feel that now we can basically ring the bell that the Belgorod raids are over for this time. Either it was election influence or they got called in for a reprimand again, that will come out eventually.
I suspect that the German state must give its permission to the Taurus manufacturer to sell the missile on the international market – someone who knows this can confirm?
Now the manufacturer has twice stated first that they can quickly produce large quantities and most recently that they will shut down all production because they get no orders. The latest statement is a truth with modification because no one has bought them since 2020 or thereabouts but it signals that they really want to sell the product.
Since the whole world wants the product and there are clearly funds available, it is not unreasonable to me that the German state is putting the brakes on here – that will come out eventually.
https://x.com/neythomas/status/1774002256192446815?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
At the risk of attacking the wrong source but this one claims that the USA has made it clear that if a single Filipino person in uniform dies as a result of China’s harassment then there will be war with them.
https://x.com/sprinterfactory/status/1773994622919843890?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
It’s interesting that at the same time they do everything to de-escalate in Ukraine by not allowing all sorts of things?
Doesn’t China have nuclear weapons and does the de-escalation doctrine only apply to Ukraine then?
Pro-Russian source (probably) but it aligns with rumors that refuse to die that France has had troops in Ukraine since the start of the war.
https://x.com/vicktop55/status/1774058065765048605?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
It’s easier to deny when everything is hidden than if you openly station troops in the country and for two years the West has denied. We have called it “all of the West’s SOF” in the thread.
Macron at least seems to have parliamentary support to send troops to Ukraine as open support – that is interesting.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1774102618710716529?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Here comes more news about successful hacker attacks, they are causing great damage.
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1774151676611416133?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Here you have UA 17th Tank Brigade, a bit more bite in them than in the Russians’ brigades with unmodified T62s.
https://x.com/partizan_avn/status/1773843478591791435?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w