12:01 – Johan No.1
Trump is attacking Biden because he seemed to prioritize Transnational Awareness Day over Easter and scores points, so I try to have a discussion below that is somewhat OT but still not, and which I know is received differently depending on who is in government. I want to emphasize that I do not judge how or what people celebrate at all, only what our representatives choose to highlight as important on various holidays for the country they are appointed to govern and in relation to the majority population.
https://x.com/fellasophic/status/1774493272813003047?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
This year apparently that day, which has been around for a few years, coincided with Easter, and Biden managed to make it look like he completely ignored Easter for Transnational Awareness Day (which is a perfectly fine day to celebrate!) even though of course he did not – a major PR fiasco a few months before the election.
I just saw that many of the politicians on Putin’s payroll across Europe are enormously popular. They are because RU’s subversive activities work for them and RU is Olympic champion at picking up trends in countries and capitalizing on them. They can also run smear campaigns against opponents and shape their candidate into a charismatic winner (from being nothing).
This is serious because Slovakia completely fell out, US support is absent, Germany obstructs, Hungary obstructs, and so on. In the Netherlands, they still haven’t managed to form a government?
Then many countries need a parliamentary simple majority to send off support packages or take measures and there Russia can also slow down. Our defense forces solved this by interpreting that a lot fell within their peace mandate to conduct exercises, only that the exercise became permanent and with a very large part of the available units.
Then the Russians don’t shy away from anything and more than one rising star standing in the way of their candidate has been caught with videos of minors on the computer and fallen like a stone. It didn’t matter that he was later acquitted because the newspapers judged him immediately and the career was destroyed. This applies to everyone except C apparently because they manage this all on their own year after year.
But the West does not help itself at all because the West does not have a clear policy for the majority population and then it goes as it goes. A couple of examples below.
When India, China, and Russia account for a very large part of emissions, the EU is supposed to try to become “climate neutral” (now that we have shut down all nuclear power) and two mandatory measures are to try to break the back of agriculture and then restore a lot of forest to its original state (whenever that may have been, the 1200s?). Farmers protest wildly all over Europe and the proposal is naturally completely crazy because it hits food supply when we are also facing increased global conflict.
In the Netherlands and France, this has affected how people vote but it hasn’t really hit us yet.
Have we in Sweden ever discussed how we should celebrate Coptic, Orthodox, Buddhist, or Jewish holidays? Is it city signage or campaigns on social media for these religions?
I am pretty sure the police have told Jewish organizations not to celebrate their holidays with decorations, or wear visible symbols, at least in Malmö.
This year apparently a religious celebration coincided with our Easter, and now I am only after the signal politics being conducted – not that people celebrate because everyone has the right to do so. In lovely Östergötland, they had the usual Easter march where the town or village dresses up as “Easter witches” (is it still okay to say that, was it in the newspaper?).
But I look every year at what all party leaders and parliamentary parties write around Christmas, Easter, Midsummer and then you never miss when they congratulate alternative holidays because they always do the rounds on Twitter. Jewish holidays are sometimes acknowledged too but I have probably never seen any party leader congratulate Hindus or Copts for example, and this year there were many congratulations for Eid.
For some unfathomable reason, many political parties and representatives do not wish Merry Christmas, Happy Easter, and Happy Midsummer – I have never understood why actually, and it was the same routine with this year’s Easter greetings.
In London, the Ramadan signage pushed out the Easter signage in some places.
If you go to the Easter march in Östergötland or to City Gross in Östergötland or to any family in the small community where I live where people come out in force on Tuesdays and pilgrimage to the lunch restaurant for the potato pancakes, you absolutely notice nothing. Tiny Easter witches look wide-eyed at your fistful of candy that you drop into the jar and run away chattering completely overjoyed, and you are just as overjoyed to have gotten rid of them so easily.
But if you sit on social media and see what is highlighted and what the representatives think is important, you see quite a lot of this and how they skip expected traditions but congratulate alternative traditions.
I know that since 2010 there has been a campaign to make Eid an official holiday in Sweden, so it is nothing new, but precisely because it coincided with Easter, it became noticeable this year – which is also a year of war.
I have tried to highlight before why dissatisfaction parties are growing stronger and it is partly because they jump on heart issues for the majority population, our elected representatives do not (always) pursue a policy for the majority population.
Yes, you can advertise whatever you want and promote whatever issues you want as long as it is not illegal, but it is what our representatives choose to spread and reinforce that sticks together into the next campaign that gives the fringe parties even more votes – and then they wonder why fringe parties grow and that there must be something wrong with the voters.
It is all a matter of time and if Russia gets time, they will succeed in turning country after country in Europe to become pro-Russian, and other countries can do little else than watch as everything falls apart.
If I were our elected representatives, I would be extra careful these war years not to pander to the majority population. Social media never forgets and it is free ammunition for influence operations.
In these times of war, as a politician, I would have turned to the church, reinforced Swedish traditions, protected our country and everything that acts as a wall against Russian attempts at division – that is how it has been done in all countries in times of war throughout world history.
The mountains, the archipelago, Gripen low flying, meatballs with lingonberry jam and mashed potatoes. The Pripps Blå commercial from the archipelago can probably be played on repeat – it made the Swedish people into rampant alcoholics when it aired, it was that popular 😀
Yes, sorry for being a bit off-topic and I know there is no consensus on these issues but sometimes the connections are so clear that it is hard to refrain from discussing.
12:36 – MatsExtrude
Thanks, uplifting reading!
Last year, I think April had turned into May for two reasons, partly because the West was slow with promised deliveries (some didn’t arrive until autumn) but surely also because training on Western equipment took time.
This year there may be late delivery of ammunition and they want to wait for the F-16 which decides when they choose to go on the offensive.
Maybe also waiting to see if it gets resolved in the USA.
Therefore, I think we won’t see anything serious until the end of summer this year but I really hope I’m wrong!
I don’t want to give the Russians too much time, they are probably most exhausted now.
So I’m keeping my fingers crossed that you are right (even if it means you miss everything during your absence).
13:22 – Johan No.1
Yes, I also guess that the air force will take its time and that it is the critical line as known so no overconfidence in a violent offensive in April 😀
13:33 – Johan No.1
I always hesitate a bit with this type of reasoning because they are subjective depending on where you yourself stand in life or come from.
For example, it was quite popular for a while in the early 2000s to celebrate Christmas in Thailand or abroad – it was seen as new and fresh.
Over the years I have discovered that the best way to keep our family, who travels and lives everywhere, together is – traditions.
The same thing every year at Christmas, the same thing every year at Easter, Midsummer, birthdays and so on.
We hold on to traditions that my parents’ parents introduced or even earlier because it gives us a sense of belonging.
Since we live in democracies, our political parties have vote counts to relate to and when large groups vote for fringe parties, obviously they have not pursued a policy for them.
19:59 – Johan No.1
I have made it a thing to look at all parties and party leaders at Christmas, Easter and Midsummer and surprisingly many do not acknowledge our holidays.
Yes, I am of the opinion that as representatives of the country, one should pursue a policy for the majority society but that does not mean that minorities should be excluded and we do have an established system really for which holidays should be acknowledged?
You are welcome to have a broad approach and note here that I do not oppose congratulating on Trans Awareness Day or participating in it, the criticism was that they do it instead of a traditional holiday when they happened to coincide.
The same with my other example, it is perfectly fine to wish for both but it has become a bit of a thing to omit the traditional in recent years. At the same time as fringe parties grow.
The contradiction as I see it is that they let go of the traditional. It is up to the politicians to do that if they want, and then the fringe parties will probably continue to grow.
For me, the country Sweden is at war now today in 2024 and strong forces are working to influence society in a negative direction.
What I am trying to point out is that historically there has been an effort to highlight the national identity to strengthen cohesion and if it is strengthened by rejecting traditions we have had for many generations, I am the first to applaud that.
But I don’t think so, I think there will be even more who vote for fringe parties that in the long run have good relations with Russia and I think that will be difficult to handle.
As I said, it’s difficult to write about this but for me it is a problem.
11:30 – Johan No.1
Ukraine therefore has until June – July before there is a new strategic reserve reasonably if there is any truth behind the 150,000 to be mobilized or if it is this year’s conscripts that someone is trying to score political points on?
During yesterday’s discussion, it emerged that the 150,000 is probably because RU cannot mobilize more than 150,000, not out of fear of revolution as I had thought.
This is very exciting because then there is a ceiling on where RU’s breaking point is and very well defined at that.
All Ukraine needs to do is push beyond this limit and with 1:5 losses, they do not directly wear down Ukraine through their Russian heroic sacrifices – when the 150,000 are dead, 30,000 UA soldiers have fallen, and Ukraine can keep going like that, right 😀
Now we have the monthly report and it is absolutely sensational, all-time high in “special” and soft vehicles with good margin, as well as in Artillery – there you go!
Killed barbarians are the fourth highest figure in the war in a forest of high bars over the last six months.
LV is the third highest ever and IFV + MBT are the fifth highest but for these two it is due to the soaring losses at the start of the war.
Overall, the Russians have been subjected to an ape-bonk for a whole month and they are very sluggish. Good luck getting just under 1,000 new artillery including crews in a month.
Now we have arrived at D-day again and after today’s post (and commenting during the day) I will return around April 23. We all know what will happen because I was absent during the Wagner coup and during some other eventful period. This is naturally because Dengamle and Budanov then take the opportunity with things I otherwise do not approve of but there is not much I can do.
Did you see that Senegal has also asked France to leave – there might be some connection to Macron’s newfound elan as RU is now dismantling France’s presence in Africa very effectively.
We have all felt that the F-16s are taking longer than allowed and Gripen too and hoped that various training programs would end earlier which we have not heard about.
For me, fighter jets are probably the critical line for a larger offensive as FAB bombers are a scourge that can effectively disrupt most things.
I don’t know how it looks this year but last year Ukraine could start mid-April and they probably meant that, Zelensky stated that they started way too late down at the southern front where the offensive start was sometime in June. Mid-April came from the thread where we figured out when the ground would hold thanks to Argus. At Bakhmut it started May 4.
And how did we start to feel that an offensive was approaching? Yes, murderous front-line pre-bombardment.
Material was missing for 4 brigades, fighter jets were missing and their combat planes were on Putin’s desk the day after being presented and the mine weapon was untested.
Material is now arriving in large quantities – more shells than last year’s offensive and they have topped up all hard vehicles and tanks and this year there are fighter jets.
They have also added landing capacity and if the West manages to keep quiet – also opened a new front up north.
A defensive line aims to delay the opponent so you have time to bring forward reserves. There is a rumor now that Ukraine will never get through the fortifications but in history there is no defensive line that has held (yep, I googled the Great Wall of China just to be sure) 😀
Zelensky’s speech was okay but I see no burning refineries or new areas taken up at the northern front and we are supposed to see what happens on the ground and draw our own conclusions, right.
Budanov is not lacking drones and all volunteer units up at the northern front can absolutely go in and wreak havoc in Russia anytime – but nothing is happening.
Right now Russia has also carried out, and is carrying out, a huge missile campaign against high-value targets in Ukraine so Ukraine should retaliate proportionally but they do not.
The UK’s MoD also earlier stated that they thought Ukraine should not carry out offensives this year but focus on Crimea so they have also interfered here.
What we want to see is a violent carpet bombing of Russian refinery operations and fuel depots.
-Followed by an invasion in the north and I have another idea that you can probably guess.
-Followed by flycatchers.
-Followed by the Azov thrust.
Game over for the bunker toad.
If anyone thinks Ukraine is starting to consider giving up, I present Macron – he would never have found his elan if he sensed Ukraine was starting to falter – then all this fire would have been for nothing and that would be very un-French.
Ukraine is getting hard vehicles and mine plows in large quantities right now so there will naturally be an offensive, the question is only when.
If you look at the losses in the first months of the war, RU threw everything against Ukraine and they held out and then during 2022 they had regained 50% of lost terrain before they got the material they have today.
The only reason it went badly in autumn and early winter was that the West completely stopped all support to Ukraine but that has now been remedied.
FAB bombers are a huge problem for Ukraine and the bombs have improved – they are losing ground largely because of them right now because it is difficult to hold an area when all your fortifications are pulverized…
The artillery is decimating Ukraine very neatly and also logistics and maintenance with FAB bombers, they must get at the airfields but the underground weapon ATACMS has not arrived or the fighter jets that have not arrived either.
Spontaneously it feels like poor planning by the West (again…) and if you want to achieve something in a low point they have 4 months.
Before this year’s land grab they have topped up with JDAMS which they also did not have before and the drone weapon is further developed from the spring offensive 2023 and very powerful.
As long as the front-line pre-bombardment continues, it signals intention to me.
Then we know that Ukraine did not need to mobilize half a million so it is not urgent for them. I think everyone throughout this war since early February 2022 has said that Ukraine is right on the edge but that Russia can keep going forever and I think it is exactly the opposite. It is Russia that is running out of time.
I wanted to mention that the detonations from the FPV drone are much bigger than those Russian grenades they were dropping at the start but the blog cleared that up quite thoroughly yesterday so nothing to add except that they are serious bangs nowadays.
Sometimes you get lucky, the commander of a Spetznaz brigade died in the attack on Crocus in Moscow.
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1773621408427340272?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
This is strange, Chinese and Indian soldiers resolve border disputes by fighting with batons and spiked clubs in street fights 😲
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kp2mjmel3l2h
During an attack on Tonenke, a whole Russian tank battalion participated and it went so-so – grilled BTG.
Then consider that the defense is probably a platoon or two resisting a direct attack by a tank battalion – somewhere around here you understand the meaning of “the world’s best infantry,” right, and the librarians, teachers, civil engineers, and football coaches have been fighting like this for over two years.
https://x.com/osintua/status/1774387800978100329?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Rumored that TOS-1 has been sent to Hezbollah, I…el strategy to flatter Putin has been catastrophic so far. Russia has also promised to support Syria in its ambitions to retake the Golan Heights. When other countries in MENA refused to escalate, Russia took the problem into its own hands.
https://x.com/warintel4u/status/1774575949863887040?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Local elections in Ankara and Erdogan’s party lost.
https://x.com/marionawfal/status/1774597515662291191?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
China has achieved a lot in the last 30 years and I find the map below of high-speed rail interesting.
https://x.com/xh_lee23/status/1774382274336952471?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
An anti-terror operation is ongoing in Dagestan
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1774320688339321008?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Interesting about the Russians’ sonic weapons in Cuba from CBS 60 minutes.
https://x.com/60minutes/status/1774588626543759395?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Budanov is anyway satisfied with the Belgorod raids and then we are also satisfied.
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1774362900028661842?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Looks good thus and for the doubters we must remind that Ukraine has done more with less and that there is now a huge positive bias for Russia as all criticism in Russia leads to prison while they fuel criticism in the West through their subversive activities.
If things go badly for UA, why are all pro-Russian currently pushing for negotiations?