14:21 – Johan No.1
It will take a while before new weapons and ammunition translate into something positive on the battlefield even if deliveries now seem to be able to happen significantly in the near term after the Senate vote, Biden surely won’t take a month. The equipment must be distributed to units before dead Russians increase exponentially even though they have now increased the use of remaining ammunition.
The day before yesterday there was a question about whether UA is getting enough or just enough to stay afloat – the question was justified because so far that has been exactly what has happened and we have had high blood pressure over this dragging on for two years.
Firstly, almost nothing is being announced right now, only Germany is continuing with its list of steel helmets and gloves but half of Europe is sending equipment to Ukraine quietly.
France has announced that they will send all their surplus equipment to Ukraine and the trains have been running for a few months, they manufacture Cesar artillery 10-12 units/month and all newly produced ammunition goes entirely to Ukraine.
The UK will send hundreds of hard vehicles and presumably the rest of the Storm Shadow missiles.
The USA will send ATACMS, cluster munitions, and presumably hard vehicles. Those heavy transports with Bradleys are hoped to be destined for Ukraine.
There is a coalition for LV trying to find 25 Patriot systems, it’s going quite poorly right now but it may also be that RU doesn’t have unlimited missiles left, see below.
There are also a couple of million shells for 155mm and Soviet calibers on delivery in the coming months.
Advanced aircraft will arrive before summer is the latest.
Don’t forget that South Korea’s 300,000 155mm shells were what enabled the spring offensive and that it died out when there was an acute ammunition shortage because (guessing here) the West thought Zelensky would negotiate once he had fought enough. Ukraine had then almost fought through the Surovikin line but had to switch to defense when supplies ran out.
Then Portugal is sending fully staffed Leo2s
https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1775577436278653274?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
What is coming now is enough for several offensives – it is absolutely enormous amounts of weapons and ammunition and everything actually needed because after that the West’s arms factories have gone red hot and Ukraine will be equipped with NEWLY PRODUCED equipment and ammunition partly funded by the interest on the frozen Russian oligarch money.
Don’t forget that Ukraine also has its own ammunition and weapons production, 8 Bohdana wheeled howitzers per month, they have their own ATGM and the Germans’ two IFVs have started being produced in Ukraine. The only thing not really produced is tanks, they have also started producing MRAPs and M113s under license, I believe.
Then I have guessed that they are running a program for old BTR-60 and BMP-1 where they install new weapon stations together with countries in Eastern Europe.
Putin can also add and subtract and he knows it’s game over unless China starts matching the deliveries – which they will not.
As a little thought exercise – how can Russia launch an offensive that yields anything when they are short on armor and with half their artillery knocked out and where advanced aircraft are denied access to the fronts while Ukraine’s armed forces get everything they point to from the West.
The first home guard brigades are now being upgraded to mechanized brigades. Do you think Ukraine lacks hard vehicles?
https://x.com/arturrehi/status/1776227190197129508?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The Ukrainian army is largely mechanized today while the Russians are driving golf carts or running screaming across the fields – Tannenberg meets 2024.
Ukraine also has the world’s best infantry and anyone who has had children in sports knows that a match can turn in seconds in psychological somersaults that are completely impossible to understand.
Sirsky’s task now is to motivate and lead the armed forces and with these enormous deliveries behind him he should be able to get motivation and morale going again in the frontline units.
Ukraine will shake off last year’s nightmare offensive and try to do everything right this year and according to previous indications probably the Azov thrust is my guess.
Chasiv Yar will become this year’s Bakhmut trap and then we are back to the big campaign plan with the change that there will be amphibious combat during 2024.
Early April came the attack on air bases just on the Russian side of the border with Ukraine – those that have been spared an entire war and where the planes stand wingtip to wingtip because Putin has guarantees from the West that nothing will happen. All those FAB bombs that bury hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers alive.
There were 60 explosions at one air base which probably falls under the concept of a drone swarm reasonably?
https://x.com/friaukraina/status/1776090662242283921?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
They used about a hundred drones instead and knocked out (destroyed and damaged) around 20 SU-34s?
We have speculated that they need to get rid of the FAB bombs to be able to start their offensive so it looks good.
Ukraine was also very clear that it was their own weapons that knocked out the planes, no Western weapons – apparently that is still important for the West 😐
There is someone in the thread who doesn’t like truths but this close to a single point and failure it’s hardly possible to get without it being one 🧐
We have gone through that they don’t run parallel lines for fuel and UA is attacking Catalytic Cracking which knocks out the fuel production line and as we have guessed in the thread they can’t repair them at all, it’s impossible.
https://x.com/kvartalet/status/1775901238191681540?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I maintain that it is likely that fuel production is heavily affected far beyond what we have guessed but it’s not something the Russians advertise directly.
A safe bet is that exports will not resume this summer after the six-month halt.
Don’t know how Bloomberg calculates since it’s 100% export ban but they consider it a 25% export loss in fuel for RU (stolen from Erik14 by the way).
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3kqgahsz6jj2o
If they previously exported but now import from Belarus and Kazakhstan then it must have been more than 25% – first 100% stop in export and then import on top?
RU wants 760,000 barrels from Kazakhstan
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1777378278317121943?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I think we have to think a bit further than we do – UA has hit all the refineries in western Russia basically and the refined products that exist in eastern Russia are not easy to get westward by land. The shortage in western Russia can therefore be quite acute.
Because I simply can’t reconcile a 25% loss with a 100% export ban and the claim that it would require imports – something is fishy with the numbers.
Then Ukraine heavily bombed a couple of fuel depots in April, which is also new and further reduces the available fuel.
I was personally completely convinced that Russia’s escalation in MENA had failed when the US CSG sailed towards the area and I..el thundered into G…a, but I think the US has managed to “mess” this up, unexpectedly.
After the Iranian missile barrage, some settlements near G..a were spontaneously attacked by Palestinians who thought that now I..el was defenseless. That says a lot about the overall mentality in the area and that the second neighboring countries believe they can get away with running over I..el, they will do it, regardless of the outcome.
The US has been constantly backing down in recent months.
– The US lets Houthi fire anti-ship missiles at civilian shipping in the Red Sea and cut internet cables without major consequences.
– The US lets Iran engage in piracy in the Strait of Hormuz and board ships.
– The US lets Iran fire over 300 missiles and other flying objects at I..el and then it leaks that the US is trying to persuade I..el not to retaliate and then talks with Iran that the retaliation will be symbolic just to save face for I..el.
– The US has influenced I..el to end the protective hunt on H..as, they let H..as retreat to a smaller area and then I..el was stopped from entering there. Considering the panic we saw from the pro-P…skt side, I..el was probably a month or two away from completely wiping out all of H…as.
Russia’s global escalation is still active and Pearson’s book holds up so far, unexpectedly.
If one wants to be very conspiratorial, maybe the US doesn’t mind a new cold war where their arms industry runs at full speed and they get a monopoly to sell oil, gas, and other things to all of Europe, which has gotten a new iron curtain and is paralyzed by Russian subversive activity. Their role has been somewhat fading the past 34 years, but maybe a new cold war will revive respect for the US again?
Next on Iran’s escalation ladder is to block the Strait of Hormuz. Then many believe that CSG carrier groups are vulnerable with today’s missiles and drones, and the country Iran does not lack submarines either, but the fact that I…el shot down 99% of the targets actually says otherwise, and if there is any target that has air defense, it is American aircraft carriers 😀
Considering that Houthi is allowed to rampage in the Red Sea and Iran’s hijacking of civilian ships, it is not unlikely that they believe they can get away with sinking a ship in the narrowest part of the Strait of Hormuz, which would cause runaway oil prices.
Surtrutn had an interesting thought the day before yesterday which I reproduce in full below. He also pointed out that Ukraine has not built many defensive fortifications during the past year, which is a sober observation.
“China probably does not want Russia to implode and be divided into many small states where none of these get a permanent seat with veto power in the Security Council. If the conflict develops towards a total Russian collapse on the home front, there is some risk that China will support Russia extra much, but since they do not want to suffer the devil’s sanctions (US sanctions), it will be a balancing act on a very slack line in a crosswind.”
My thought after this is that for China’s part, they probably want Russia to retreat to the 1991 borders and for some kind of normal state to be restored.
Then they can continue their business with Russia and they won’t face sanctions from the West.
Extrapolating a bit further, maybe Budanov’s rampages will be what forces China’s hand to persuade Russia to withdraw from the war when Russia starts turning inward?
Everything that looks like Russia is starting to turn inward is thus good for this war and good for the West, so why the West insists on holding back Budanov is an unfathomable mystery.
At the same time as UA is not allowed to raise the oil price in Russia, Iran is dangerously close to doing so and the US imposed sanctions on Venezuela which probably raises the price. Everything is a pretext.
I believe the below is stolen from Erik14 but it signals that RU does not have many missiles or air defense ammunition left.
They were supposed to have 800 in stockpiles and several thousand air defense missiles.
“Russia has launched almost 1,000 missiles, about 2,800 attack UAVs and 7,000 anti-aircraft missiles over Ukraine since the beginning of 2024.”
Like so much else, this is absolutely highly interesting because when it’s over, it’s over in the missile stocks, and now the factory that manufactures S300 and S400 missiles was bombed.
The war is already lost for Russia, I have said it for a long time, but it won’t end until Putin throws in the towel and he won’t do that. The fastest way to the finish line is Budanov’s rampages paired with a renewed UA offensive, and I don’t believe for a second that Ukraine will sit on its hands throughout 2024.
The number of combat boats delivered suggests some willingness for amphibious combat, and the mine-clearing equipment as well as their unwillingness to build defensive defense lines suggests that they are still thinking about retaking their country.
Now Ukraine is getting the equipment they need for a sustainable offensive and then it will be met with new production – such a low point for Ukraine will never return for Putin.
Russia does not have that production capability – they are running short on a bit of everything and new production is laughably small; 400 tanks were modified in 2023 of the models T90, T80, and T72 for example, and a few BTR-90s were produced, as well as the latest Sukhoi aircraft.
Good analysis of how mechanized units have now become Vanbus infantry
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kquhqlinak25
RU short on armor
https://x.com/verekerrichard1/status/1775245777943536053?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Russian transport to the front of older tanks
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1775949402797961396?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Then the Russians have a big weakness – always a factory that manufactures engines for all tanks, a factory that manufactures X and so on. Over time there has been sabotage against production and a tank doesn’t roll when it is 95% finished, right.
Now Putin tried to retaliate through sabotage against ammunition production in the West and there have already been hundreds of sabotage acts against the rail networks but it has no effect.
It is also my conviction that some nuclear power outages around Europe in winter 2023 had Russian fingerprints but we will probably never know because it is too sensitive.
Over time, the shortages will naturally be remedied together with China, but they are not there at all yet, so Ukraine has a few years here.
What we should see is the same campaign as autumn 2022 or spring 2023 – a deadly pre-attack on the rear and then front-line pre-attack starts.
Probably the campaigns for heavy bombing and sabotage deep behind enemy lines will continue and apparently a drone was shot down at a refinery again, so they have not given up on that at all, which is enormously positive.
Then the reconnaissance battles begin, which at some point turn into an offensive, and we agree just like last year on a date; for example, last year it was May 4th when we reached consensus, which is now historically recognized as the start date of the spring offensive 2023 😀
I found some links that I didn’t post yesterday,
Here is another one about Jake Sullivan that was up yesterday, he believes there is a risk of escalation and not sending equipment. Quite a bit of Chamberlain about him.
https://x.com/officejjsmart/status/1776062282054738040?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Here it was the US ambassador to the UN who wanted an end to refinery attacks after April 2nd.
https://x.com/senatorwicker/status/1775551976404648112?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
14:40 – Johan No.1
Lots of meetings today so the post came a bit late, really super boring when you have to work too 😐
15:34 – MatsExtrude
👍
The equipment will probably be in place quite quickly, the question is how much time is needed for other preparations.
Maybe the offensive can get underway at the beginning of May again this year but I think they want more time for pre-combat and that they probably want the F-16s to have arrived.
I think it might be June before the stage is fully set.
Of course, they won’t be sleeping until then, they have to stop the Russians’ advance as soon as possible and where possible also retake ground.
16:29 – Johan No.1
Yes, I actually lean towards that too, we are at the end of April and the equipment is not yet in place, so sometime in the summer at the earliest, which is a bit slow because they would have needed as much time as possible.
22:58 – Johan No.1
USA is sending 300km ATACMS to Ukraine
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1782991689205821907?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
23:53 – Johan No.1
😳
13:59 – Johan No.1
Ukraine has (had) an acute ammunition shortage across the board, so it’s not just the artillery that has gone silent but tanks, aircraft, IFVs, and surely anti-tank weapons and RPGs are also suffering from shortages.
The first Russian attacks last fall were crushed long before they even saw the targets with drones and artillery, then more and more were knocked out by close combat, so it was clear.
The same with when UA knocked out 95% of the missiles and then when they ran out of ammunition almost none were left.