16:00 – MatsExtrude
The offensive will probably come, the only question is when everything is in place for them to have the greatest chance of success.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Ukraine tests the Russians’ tactic, to shoot everything to pieces, as long as they get enough (mainly artillery) ammunition.
First a thorough pre-attack deep strike with HIMARS etc. to destroy logistics, then front-line fighting with artillery until the Russians, in pure terror, attack backwards.
Then they clear mines before calmly rolling in with armor to clean up any stragglers.
The Air Force and F-16s clear the airspace so that FABs and KABs don’t reach the front.
17:00 – Johan No.1
Yep, this year’s pre-attack will be astronomical, they now have 10 times the 155mm shells compared to last year and the drone weapon is magnitudes better.
Add to that JDAMS, Storm Shadow, ATACMS, GLDSB.
It’s going to be ENORMOUSLY violent 💥💥💥
17:09 – Johan No.1
Yes, the thread doesn’t have many big China fans, I noticed, but I’m trying to put it in perspective.
After all, the USA destroyed Libya, Afghanistan, and Iraq when China was thinking about invading Taiwan.
Then there’s that dreadful “surveillance society” they have, still less than what we Swedes accept. “Social score.” If you have a mark in your credit report, you don’t get a phone subscription or rental apartment.
Everyone knows where everyone lives, earns, or has been convicted of crimes in Sweden.
17:11 – Johan No.1
Have you thought about the following –
ATACMS is being newly produced.
GLDSB is being newly produced.
Why aren’t Taurus or Storm Shadow being newly produced?
The manufacturer of Taurus was eager to sell, for example.
According to Wikipedia, SS can be newly produced.
Brakes eel-hell Taurus manufacturing 😲
19:52 – MatsExtrude
It’s probably the eel’s fault, he is too cowardly and since he doesn’t send any, no new ones are ordered.
The question is how he and Germany would react if Ukraine asked if they could buy a hundred. Then they would have their backs covered against Russia.
Now they cost ridiculously much (~1.2 million USD each) but United24 could start it as a fundraising project. They have raised over 630 million USD so far so it doesn’t feel entirely impossible that they could raise enough for a few Taurus at least.
11:07 – Johan No.1
The delivery date for the F-16 has been postponed several times now, first it was “this summer,” then “before summer,” and now this Twitter user thinks they will arrive sometime in May already.
https://x.com/friedhelm_mosel/status/1776098173280231734?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Regarding the US weapons package, it’s not primarily the money they want but the weapons.
The ATACMS long-range cluster munitions are a huge addition to the arsenal, as are the 155mm cluster shells. Bradleys and Abrams are better vehicles (if Abrams actually come, I’ve only heard about Bradley) and especially Bradleys they should be able to send many of since there are units stationed in Europe and in storage for the US’s own brigades. They can send LV if they want since they have countless Patriots. They have M60s in storage and dozens of different types of mine-resistant vehicles and PV missile carriers. Just of the M113 there are probably a few thousand.
In the longer term, they have helicopters, attack helicopters, many thousands of missiles, A10, F16, and a plethora of armored vehicles. They can also rebuild the Ukrainian navy if they want.
If you look at the list of equipment sent for 1 billion USD, it suggests that for 10 billion USD you get a lot. Then the rest of the funds probably go to the domestic arms industry which can ramp up, and that is the next step – new production by the arms industry.
The fact that US support is now unlocked should mean that over time everything will come, and as long as it is approved for delivery, the orange man can’t do anything if he is re-elected against expectations, which I don’t think he will be.
Then Taurus should come eventually but Scholz is still a nuisance and a defector.
Macron tried to persuade him to improve and he refused.
https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1775505960628285453?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Then when Macron found his elan and integrity, Scholz tried to persuade him to back down on the statement about troops in Ukraine.
https://x.com/cynlandns/status/1776694463479332947?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
But now Scholz and Biden’s understanding with Putin has fallen apart in all its glory, which is very good. I don’t remember when it was rumored that ATACMS had returned, sometime after Christmas? Biden thus sent a delivery of 155mm and ATACMS on his own initiative, which was appreciated.
Kaja Kallas must not become NATO chief, among others Germany strongly opposed. NATO was an organization against the Soviet Union and today when Russia has risen, they should become an organization against Russia, so it’s sad that Mark Rutte is considered instead of Kallas…
https://x.com/mavkaslavka/status/1775484552766734635?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The US has quite harsh rhetoric against China, actually harsher than against Russia, but how many wars has China really started?
I am of the opinion that the US’s aversion to China largely stems from the fact that they are becoming an economic pro boxer. Japan got a kick in the 90s from the West because their economy was doing too well if you remember, and this is starting to feel a bit like the same thing. The West will simply have to find a way to coexist with China instead of raising the temperature for a global conflict is my personal opinion. Then this is the real world and just as Germany and the US had some kind of vision of how the war in Ukraine would end, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they have cooked up plans regarding pushing back China since both Germany and the US want to produce and export and China is starting to take too much market share – now this is wild speculation 😀
New equipment is always fun to discuss.
UA has 14 artillery brigades and now 70 Cesar and 48 Bodhana are produced every 6 months. That would give 4 brigades completely re-equipped per year and in 3.5 years Ukraine will thus have completely re-equipped its artillery.
Their own BTR-4 is a good IFV and they ordered 750 at the end of 2023, production time is unclear.
https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_december_2023_global_security_army_industry/ukraine_to_order_750_locally-made_armored_vehicles.html#google_vignette
German Lynx will start production in Ukraine already in 2024 (10 that year if I recall correctly) and Fuchs in 2025.
https://armyrecognition.com/defense_news_january_2024_global_security_army_industry/ukraine_welcomes_rheinmetall_s_new_facility_for_production_of_fuchs_and_kf41_lynx_armored_vehicles.html
It was discussed that Germany would build a factory in Ukraine producing 400 of the new generation Panther tanks per year but that is in its infancy.
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2023/03/21/how-realistic-is-it-for-rheinmetall-to-build-a-tank-plant-in-ukraine/
Until then, I believe Ukraine’s tank fleet will undergo many ambitious modification programs and that it will be a mix of Eastern tanks and Leopards for a few more years. We’ll see if the US sends Abrams but otherwise it probably looks like this. Ukraine can continue to receive many Leopard tanks.
The same will apply to all old mine-protected Eastern vehicles that get new weapon stations. Several countries in Europe have these solutions, Italy and Turkey for example.
Soon Ukraine will get attack helicopters and ground attack. The air force might become F-16 if Sweden doesn’t get its act together and manage to sell the Gripen.
Starting in 2025, brigade after brigade will be completely re-equipped and have equipment that far exceeds the Russians’.
The balance of terror will then be reached and Russia will never dare to jump on Ukraine again because the threshold effect is too deterrent.
I have the feeling that Ukraine will manage to balance economic development and a strong defense force on its own going forward once they are rebuilt. Sweden managed it during the Cold War and Finland has been doing it since the end of the war – it is possible if you want.
What gives the spearhead that really sharp edge is the guided munitions and then all the equipment for night fighting. Now such things are coming in deliveries again.
The Czechs are also hard-modifying all old T72s and cranking out a new tank a day with the latest guided munitions.
It makes a hell of a difference when you see a glowing tank behind all the trees to put the arrow in or if you barely see the camouflaged tank.
It also makes a hell of a difference when advancing at night with image intensifiers and the opponent is running low on lights.
This is the capability more and more UA brigades are getting now while the Russian side has run out of batteries for the company’s image intensifiers.
RU managed in 2023 to produce a total of 400 tanks with modifications and we have seen comparisons of guided munitions – completely inadequate.
Does RU have strategic reserves at present – no, they are used up. According to Accentman, the 25th CAA has been withdrawn from northern Luhansk.
Ukraine, on the other hand, has strategic reserves that have trained for several months and now they have carried out rotations at the fronts. It did not go very well when the 47th mech was withdrawn but these rotations happen everywhere and often mean fresh, lively units acting offensively.
We should thus quite soon see more counterattacks from Ukraine and then the reconnaissance battles will probably start again.
Ukraine has total dominance at the Dnieper front in drone weapons and according to Accentman they also dominate up in northern Luhansk.
We know what Ukraine has produced in terms of drones and artillery, we know they have Uber for artillery and a “digital battlefield” that would make our Supreme Commander green with envy. This entire chain is intact – it has only been the ammunition that has been lacking.
We also know that the Russians are unable to manage their digital battlefield even though they have managed to launch a rocket or two within a reasonably short time on detected targets.
Ukraine also has EW weapons that deny Russian drones access while their own drones are supposed to be EW immune.
Ukraine should therefore be able to pool capabilities on a front section, for example the Dnipro front, and have full superiority in drone weapons, deny Russian air access, and then be able to place their own JDAMS on all bunker systems.
They also have artillery radar and their own artillery that totally dominated before they ran out of ammunition.
There are plenty of tanks, over 300 have been delivered since last autumn and a couple of trains with Leo2s on top – they seem to function as 4km snipers nowadays.
Then Ukraine has enough fragmentation protection now that they can sacrifice vehicles for terrain.
And on top of that, night combat capability for prioritized brigades that take the lead.
They have had nearly a year to develop mine clearance and mine detection – pretty sure they have taken it seriously.
This looming trench warfare that Ukraine can’t possibly break through, what is it really?
It’s trenches, reinforced positions or bunkers, soldiers, armored vehicles, tanks, mines, close combat vehicles.
Then they have support from artillery, drones, and aircraft dropping FAB bombs.
It’s quite clear that Ukraine is currently working to eliminate the support, and on a front section they intend to attack, there will then be soldiers and vehicles left.
Before advancing, their drones and indirect fire will take out all the hard vehicles they can, and this time bunkers and reinforced positions will also be destroyed because France, the USA, and most recently the UK are delivering JDAMS
https://x.com/ukraine_map/status/1783073567401234800?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
During the actual attack, the Russian shooters will have to get into the defensive systems and try to activate their close combat vehicles, and then 155mm cluster shells and drones will rain down on them.
Now Ukraine has such good access to fragmentation protection that they will be able to sacrifice them for terrain, which is welcome. Maybe not my suggestion of 15,000–20,000 more, but they had received 8,500 and many thousands more have been sent during autumn and spring, so not far from the lower range.
During last year’s offensive, they almost broke through the Surovikin line without all the equipment they now have. The drones were not as used, they had no JDAMS, and the Russians’ Ahkp and elite aircraft were a huge problem causing devastation. It was NATO that forced the offensive according to NATO doctrine without air superiority, and thank God Zalizhny abandoned it after three weeks and switched to the fighting they managed to conduct until mid-autumn with low losses before ammunition ran out.
I know I’m quite alone in believing in an offensive as usual, but why would you need lots of fragmentation-protected vehicles and combat boats if you intended defensive warfare?
Distractions like the northern front and amphibious combat are also part of the plan this year. Last year they were not allowed into the northern oblasts and they did not have the capability for amphibious combat.
Belarus is also game-on this year unless the West has some yellow cards because the Khalinousky regiment has openly started threatening Lukashenko and that must be received very positively by the opposition.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kqv222s2ns2p
During 2023, Ukraine showed that in offensive operations they can use their entire palette of indirect capabilities and mechanized forces and achieve a favorable loss ratio of 1:5. We have seen countless videos where 1-2 groups retake a defensive system and a platoon of Russians is killed, wounded, or captured, with a fallen hero and a couple of wounded on their side. They have also fought at a numerical disadvantage the whole time.
The Russians, on the other hand, have been completely unable to kick out a battalion of marines from Krunky since sometime last autumn.
The answer is probably, as usual, that the elite air force is the critical line here and it will take the time it takes, but the idea that Ukraine would sit on its hands during 2024 is a pipe dream for pro-Russians. Zelensky probably knows best how difficult it has been to restart the armed forces after the 2023 offensive and the West’s betrayal during the autumn, but now they have the wind at their back again with all the support packages.
He also knows how fickle Western support is after being constantly deceived for two years, did you know that Germany has only delivered 10 billion euros of the 28 billion euros they promised?
https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1777383407380562118?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
If you, like me, have felt that the USA has been a bit stingy with support to Ukraine earlier, here is a list of what they left behind in Afghanistan – 40,000 vehicles…
https://x.com/boweschay/status/1782729926094848379?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
So if Zelensky now gets enough for further offensives, he will take that chance instead of wasting ammunition for several years until the West abandons him again.
So far, Ukraine has been street-smart and they will be so during 2024 as well.
All the puzzle pieces are almost in place and whack-a-mole is to Ukraine’s advantage.