2024-05-12 -

12:37

The Lions,
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1788635263545053597?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Georgia has gone through a couple of phases now, first smaller demonstrations and then larger ones, and then came the classic cash-paid miners in buses pretending to be counter-demonstrators and together with riot police tried to scare Georgians into silence. The response was that 15% of the country’s population took to the streets in Tbilisi in an absolutely massive show of force. They probably now have the numbers for a spontaneous popular revolution, you know, that thing that the large oligarch and Putin absolutely hate. It will be interesting to see if there will be any votes of no confidence in parliament regarding the government going forward. Russia has nothing to send anyway.
And Belarus is watching wide-eyed along with a number of republics within the Russian federation.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3ksbhvthwhk2a

Freely translated from Korpen Flyger – “I love the smell of burning gas cans and the sound of exploding tankers in the morning.”

We probably declared in semi-ecstasy when the refineries started burning and bleeding in January that Ukraine had a clever plan to create the first nationwide fuel shortage. Back in January the cheers were not exactly deafening but when we reached May and fuel depots for the special operation are now exploding in violent fire clouds, maybe it wasn’t such a bad guess?

It will never be nationwide but they are certainly trying to cause fuel shortages for the special operation, otherwise they wouldn’t have attacked fuel depots in areas like Luhansk.
The depots they are now knocking out are probably central ones that then supply divisions or army corps or something?

And here you have another refinery, the joy knows no bounds 💥
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3ksbuq6tsus24

And a fuel train in Rostov, good target.
https://x.com/heroiam_slava/status/1789152391876477362?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

My list unfortunately only includes refineries but now the fuel depots are probably starting to become off-limits and a burned-down tanker is written off.

I remember at the beginning of the war how we in the thread were not supposed to rejoice at Russian losses or share videos of exploding Russians, we got around it by writing “neutrally brilliant” about the Russian losses and we probably had to rename it from the “daily lottery line” to the loss list or something.
When Ukrainians in panic started calling their parliamentarians after Bucha (and maybe Irpin) they were immediately rebuffed, no one could behave like that. The lead time before the country’s leadership took in what had happened was long and then it took time before it became international explosive material.
But all those who have been sexually sadistically murdered in torture centers in eastern Ukraine since 2014 when the Russian narrative lay like a wet blanket over everything?
The West has throughout this war felt that they were a higher moral beacon in the dark and tried to act sensibly, which has led to tens of thousands of extra tortured, raped, and murdered children.
Then these discussions sometimes come up and I believe it is easy to discuss love, tolerance, compassion and all that good stuff when we sit in full safety and will never see our children tortured-raped-murdered by five laughing Kadyrovites.
To be tolerant you have to be intolerant of the intolerant, as they say?
For the Ukrainian shooter, it’s about surviving or dying and until Russia leaves Ukraine it is not morally defensible for me to have a lot of opinions about how they fight for their lives.
And then it gets double-knotted, because for us to preach tolerance Ukraine must kill hundreds of thousands of Russians for us, we find it a bit unpleasant to deal with but maybe we tolerate it.
I cheer when Ukraine strikes targets in Russia and I appreciate that they apply proportionate response, or still well below that.

And here Kraken cheers after a destroyed BMP-2 and a pile of dead Russians.
https://x.com/ayzin_illya/status/1789530608986628109?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

There is one perpetrator in this war and that is Russia, they can leave Ukraine any day. Ukraine cannot leave Ukraine and if they lay down their arms everyone knows what awaits. The torture centers are so close together that they have probably had to buy victims from each other to keep them open.

The Kharkiv offensive is uninteresting to me, we have gone through the rivers before and they are formidable natural obstacles so the goal of the operation is either diversion or to create a buffer zone that the Russians absolutely adore.
50,000 in the northern battle group that are not down in Ukraine is perfect.
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1789099111339155770?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

but David D thinks it’s a myth
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1789102985781317740?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

That Ukraine has gotten ammunition and armored vehicles to units is a turning point and now it can only get better.
Seems like 100 new Bradleys and 100 new M113s which is probably okay.
https://x.com/jeff21461/status/1788988680515850660?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

All Belarusian battalions are positioned near the Belarus border and the Khalinousky regiment openly challenges Lukashenko. On that subject, Lukashenko has been surprisingly quiet lately.

I understand why the invasion didn’t become more than disrupting the election when they concentrated up there but that means those units are not down in Ukraine.

The bridgehead over the Dnieper is held and slowly expanding.

Then Germany chips in with 3 new HIMARS platforms, remember autumn 2022 when it was first 3 and then a total of 8 that caused violent destruction to the Russian logistics?
Three makes a difference.
https://x.com/deaidua/status/1789040929564758481?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

The daily lottery line is starting to smell like front-line pre-emptive strikes and with new HIMARS one can probably extend this deeper into enemy territory.

Then we figured out that ATACMS tungsten clouds are the perfect ammunition to knock out fuel depots and it seems Ukraine has understood that so bye bye gasoline and diesel.

Between the lines I read that quite a few armored vehicles and artillery are in workshops in Ukraine or around Europe. But remember that the Russians’ vehicles and artillery were in worse condition, they are used harder and their workshops are infinitely worse – having 30% of all equipment with technical faults is not unreasonable. Ukraine at least has the whole European maintenance chain doing their utmost to get the vehicles back to the front.

Something bad is that RU now masters short reaction time between detection and hit on the target. The reconnaissance is drones but the platform can be artillery, missile or drone which is unfortunate.
https://x.com/squatsons/status/1789424071626662281?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Another discussion we often had was that when we in the thread screamed blue in the face after Archer, CV90 and all other cool stuff you kill Russians with, there was a group in the thread explaining to us that our leaders knew best, elected representatives to begin with and then supported by experts, and that they did what was right which we did not understand.
Now in hindsight one can coldly conclude that our elected officials acted completely wrong for far too long, on whatever grounds they had, which over time enormously increased the risk for the citizens (those who voted for our elected officials to work for their best) enormously. Every year the risk of global conflict increases.
It was of course an attempt to dominate us others and try to push us down a bit but have you reflected that while you blindly put your trust in those who should know their stuff without thinking for yourselves, we took a few more steps towards global conflict?
Something as simple as 7 October would not have happened if Russia had been defeated in autumn 2022 or summer 2023.
At least I am not the least bit eager to have to stand fiddling with an AK4 at some remote mobilization depot just because our leaders cannot interpret the simplest signs over two long years and I think that is worth discussing until the war is over.

If Xi was on a charm tour in Europe to sell his electric cars, Hungary was probably not the best choice. A bit strange, but I haven’t dived deep into it, and moreover over to France, which is Putin’s worst enemy right now. And then you miss Putin’s big day 🤣🤣🤣
https://x.com/pm_viktororban/status/1788654447704367370?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

RU has directly taken over the base in Niger where the US was kicked out – things are moving very fast now 😐
https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1788822944048673106?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

You remember that where I am, everyone has become pro-Russian now, it is an enormous subversive activity.
Russia is recruiting heavily from Africa now – they never intended to fight these wars themselves and if they start running out of minorities, soldiers from Africa will do just as well, they think.

From Erik14 I believe,
The Ukrainian colonel noted that he also sees Tajik, Uzbek, Turkmen, Cuban, and Somali mercenaries.
Many soldiers who have never seen combat before:
“Our intercepts show that they are using whoever they can force to fight – cooks, construction workers, mechanics, anyone. Many Russian soldiers have no choice. Most of the captured are boys from small towns and villages. They tell us that they will either be killed here or there if they escape.”

A page from colonial times where regiments were set up recruited from the local catchment area.
Russia has every intention in the world to start a whole bunch of new proxy wars, many of them in Africa.

Italy is sending a lot of equipment but still has geographical limitations on its ammunition, unfortunately.
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1787723143525871856?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1787864048014413835?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

And then the Dutch are waiting to send planes until autumn…
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1787565801387483181?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

The engine failure on the SU34 was probably the second in a short time – I suggest they have been running the engines too hard, which is perfect.
https://x.com/rahantrooper/status/1787587553060589655?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Russia can never win against the world’s best infantry, it’s that simple, and not even without ammunition did they give up.
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1787920090492477695

Budanov et al. have always surprised us, yes Sirsky is a bit unknown so far but I think he has handled the task brilliantly without ammunition since last autumn and now that is past.
That the deputy defense minister was arrested is forgotten but it is the second attempt at rotation in leadership after the Wagner coup in just over a year.

We have seen trains with heavy vehicles destined for Ukraine since January and now Ukraine has officially announced what the thread also knew since January – that they have an offensive strategic reserve of 10-11 brigades, I think we counted 11?
The first F-16 delivery is probably in June and then it will reasonably continue if ammunition now arrives as promised with liberation deeds deep inside, denying FAB bombers and front-line pre-attack that at times reaches storm strength.

I consider the liberation deeds against Russia’s refining capacity to be this war’s single most important pressure tool on RU and it is a true joy to see that it continues, and also environmentally friendly which makes me even happier 💥

12:38

The Lions,
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1788635263545053597?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Georgia has gone through a couple of phases now, first smaller demonstrations and then larger ones, and then came the classic cash-paid miners in buses playing counter-demonstrators and together with riot police tried to scare the Georgians into silence. The response was that 15% of the country’s population took to the streets in Tbilisi in an absolutely massive show of force. They probably now have the numbers for a spontaneous popular revolution, you know, that which the large oligarch and Putin absolutely hate. It will be interesting to see if there will be any votes of no confidence in parliament regarding the government going forward. Russia has nothing to send anyway.
And Belarus is watching wide-eyed along with a number of constituent republics in the Russian federation.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3ksbhvthwhk2a

Freely translated from Korpen Flyger – “I love the smell of burning gas cans and the …t of exploding tanks in the morning.”

We probably declared in half ecstasy when the refineries started burning and bleeding in January that Ukraine had a clever plan to create the first nationwide fuel shortage. Back then in January the cheers were not exactly deafening but when we reached May and fuel depots for the special operation are now exploding in violent fire clouds, maybe it wasn’t such a bad guess?

It will never be nationwide but they are certainly trying to cause fuel shortages for the special operation because otherwise they would not have attacked fuel depots in areas like Luhansk.
The depots they are now knocking out are probably central ones that then supply divisions or army corps or something?

And here you have another refinery, the joy knows no bounds 💥
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3ksbuq6tsus24

And a fuel train in Rostov, a good target.
https://x.com/heroiam_slava/status/1789152391876477362?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

My list unfortunately only includes refineries but now the fuel depots are probably starting to become protected and a burned-down tank is written off.

I remember at the beginning of the war how we in the thread were not supposed to rejoice at Russian losses or share videos of exploding Russians, we got around that by writing “neutrally brilliant” about the Russian losses and we probably had to rename it from the “daily lottery line” to the loss list or something.
When Ukrainians in panic started calling their parliamentarians after Bucha (and maybe Irpin) they were immediately rebuffed, no one could behave like that. The lead time before the country’s leadership took in what had happened was long and then it took time before it became international explosive material.
But all those who have been sexually sadistically murdered in torture centers in eastern Ukraine since 2014 when the Russian narrative lay like a wet blanket over everything?
The West has throughout this war felt that they have been a higher moral beacon in the dark and tried to act calmly, which has led to tens of thousands of extra tortured, raped, and murdered children.
Then these discussions sometimes come up and I think it is easy to discuss love, tolerance, compassion, and all that good stuff when we sit in full safety and will never see our children tortured-raped-murdered by five laughing Kadyrovites.
To be tolerant, you have to be intolerant of the intolerant, as they say?
For the Ukrainian shooters, it’s about surviving or dying and until Russia leaves Ukraine, it is not morally defensible for me to have a lot of opinions about how they fight for their lives.
And then it gets double-knotted, because for us to preach tolerance, Ukraine must kill hundreds of thousands of Russians for us, we find it a bit unpleasant to deal with but maybe we tolerate it.
I cheer when Ukraine strikes targets in Russia and I appreciate that they apply proportionate response, or still much below that.

And here Kraken cheers after a destroyed BMP-2 and a pile of dead Russians.
https://x.com/ayzin_illya/status/1789530608986628109?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

The Kharkiv offensive is uninteresting to me, we have gone through the rivers before and they are formidable natural obstacles so the goal of the operation is either a diversion or to create a buffer zone that the Russians absolutely adore.
50,000 in the northern battle group that are not down in Ukraine is perfect.
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1789099111339155770?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

but David D considers it a myth
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1789102985781317740?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

That Ukraine has received ammunition and armored vehicles at units is a turning point and now it can only get better.
Seems like 100 new Bradleys and 100 new M113s which is okay.
https://x.com/jeff21461/status/1788988680515850660?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

All Belarusian battalions are positioned near the Belarus border and the Khalinousky regiment openly challenges Lukashenko. On the subject, Lukashenko has been surprisingly quiet lately.

I understand why the invasion did not become more than a disruption of the election when they concentrated up there but that means those units are not down in Ukraine.

The bridgehead over the Dnieper is held and slowly increasing.

The daily lottery line is starting to smell like front-line counter-battery fire and with new HIMARS you can probably extend this deeper into the depth.

Then we figured out that ATACMS tungsten cloud is the perfect ammunition to take out oil depots and it seems Ukraine has understood that so bye bye gasoline and diesel.

Between the lines I read that quite a few armored vehicles and artillery are in workshops in Ukraine or around Europe. But remember that the Russians’ vehicles and artillery were in worse condition, they are used harder and their workshops are infinitely worse – that they have 30% of all equipment with technical faults is not unreasonable. Ukraine at least has the whole European maintenance chain doing their utmost to get the vehicles back to the front.

One bad thing is that RU now masters a short reaction time between detection and hit on the target. The reconnaissance is drones but the platform can be artillery, missile, or drone which is unfortunate.
https://x.com/squatsons/status/1789424071626662281?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Another discussion we often had was that when we in the thread shouted ourselves blue after Archer, CV90 and all other cool stuff you kill Russians with, there was a group in the thread explaining to us that our leaders knew best, elected representatives to begin with and then supported by experts, and that they did what was right which we did not understand.
Now in hindsight one can coldly state that our elected officials acted completely wrong for far too long, on whatever motives they had, which over time enormously increased the risk for the citizens (those who voted our elected officials to work for their best) something enormous. Every year the risk of global conflict increases.
It was of course an attempt to dominate us others and try to push us down a bit but have you reflected that while you blindly put your trust in those who should know their stuff without thinking for yourselves we took a few steps closer to global conflict?
Something as simple as 7 October would not have happened if Russia had been defeated in autumn 2022 or summer 2023.
At least I am not the least eager to have to stand fiddling with an AK4 at some remote mobilization depot just because our leaders cannot interpret the simplest signs during two long years and I think that is worth discussing until the war is over.

If Xi was on a charm tour in Europe to sell his electric cars, Hungary was probably not the best choice. A bit strange but I have not dived deep into it and then over to France which is Putin’s worst enemy right now. And then you skip Putin’s big day 🤣🤣🤣
https://x.com/pm_viktororban/status/1788654447704367370?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

RU has directly taken over the base in Niger where the USA has been kicked out – it’s going very fast now 😐
https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1788822944048673106?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

You remember that where I am everyone has become pro-Russian now, it is an enormous subversive activity.
Russia is recruiting really heavily from Africa now – they never intended to fight these wars themselves and if they start running out of minorities then soldiers from Africa will do just as well they think.

From Erik14 I believe,
The Ukrainian colonel noted that he also sees Tajik, Uzbek, Turkmen, Cuban and Somali mercenaries.
Many soldiers who have never seen combat before:
“Our intercepts show that they are using whoever they can force to fight – cooks, construction workers, mechanics, anyone. Many Russian soldiers have no choice. Most of the captured are boys from small towns and villages. They tell us that they will either be killed here or there if they escape.”

A page from colonial times where regiments were set up recruiting from the local recruitment area.
Russia has every plan in the world to start a whole bunch of new proxy wars, many in Africa.

Italy sends a lot of materiel but unfortunately still has geographical limitations on its ammunition.
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1787723143525871856?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1787864048014413835?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

And then the Dutch are waiting to send planes until autumn…
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1787565801387483181?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

The engine failure on the SU34 was probably the second in a short time – I suggest they have been running the engines too hard which is perfect.
https://x.com/rahantrooper/status/1787587553060589655?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Russia can never win against the world’s best infantry, it’s that simple and not even without ammunition did they give up.
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1787920090492477695

Budanov et.al have always surprised us, yes Sirsky is a bit unknown so far but I think he has solved the task brilliantly without ammunition since last autumn and now that is past.
That the deputy defense minister was arrested is forgotten but it is the second attempt at rotation in leadership after the Wagner coup in just over a year.

We have seen trains with armored vehicles destined for Ukraine since January and now Ukraine has officially announced what the thread has known since January – that they have an offensive strategic reserve of 10-11 brigades, I think we counted 11?
The first F-16 is probably delivered in June and then it will presumably continue if ammunition now comes as promised with deep liberation deeds, denying FAB bombers and front-line counter-battery fire that at some point reaches storm strength.

I believe that the liberation actions against Russia’s refining capacity are this war’s single most important pressure tool on RU, and it is a true joy to see it continue, and moreover environmentally friendly which makes me even happier 💥

12:39

Managed to find the forbidden word, hooray.

18:39

Vovchansk or not Vovchansk, but that the area west of Vovchansk is disputed on deepstate is strange because it is first a watercourse and then fields, and UA should have been in a forest and taken the barbarians down when they first waded across the watercourse and then ran across the fields?

On the unit maps there is no unit marked there so maybe a weak point?