13:30 – MatsExtrude
Thanks Johan!
14:27 – Johan No.1
Thank you, you read it yesterday, right?
18:54 – MatsExtrude
There was a lot going on this weekend, so I just skimmed through the posts. I’ll try to catch up tonight!
07:28 – Johan No.1
Another high-ranking officer arrested in Russia.
Considering those arrested earlier and Patrushev’s resignation, it’s starting to feel like another failed coup almost?
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1790140347584070043?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
07:39 – Johan No.1
Two more at the MoD who are rumored 😳
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1790144889294074283?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
08:08 – MatsExtrude
Interesting!
11:30 – Johan No.1
The Lions
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1786774264596631605?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And the Mech Lions
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1789648668103954602?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
High losses are all well and good but if these are the “African Corps” losses where they have recruited personnel from countries in Africa, it almost becomes a proxy war, but perhaps it is still a mix for now. Everyone talks about Russia’s endless personnel reserves, but recruitment from minority peoples in the Russian Federation, Cuba, Africa, Nepal, and India is happening on a large scale – why would the arch-Asian Russia want soldiers from Africa if they have an endless personnel reserve?
The truth is probably that they dare not mobilize from Muscovite Russia on a large scale, we already saw that back in January 2023 and it still holds in May 2024, so time has almost confirmed it.
That they have unlimited tanks is a myth, that they have unlimited soldiers also starts to look like a better joke when they are heavily recruiting in Africa. We know the artillery is declining but they have replaced it with drones and FAB bombs. The FAB bomb droppers will probably be in danger in a few weeks but the drone weapon is here to stay.
Why didn’t Budanov drone-bomb the May 9 parade in Moscow?
They have drones in abundance, the symbolic value would have been sky-high and all the leaders stood in a geographical place known in advance and Ukraine has stated that they have drones that are immune to EW weapons.
Hard to see anything else than that they refrained for some reason, whatever that may have been?
Some launch ramps for 100 small short-range suicide drones and if they don’t have autonomous ones, different indoor locations running FPV drones they release out of windows and fly straight into the parade and then exfiltrate?
Or long-range ones that start from different places in Russia with coordinates loaded for Putin’s little stool with an extra thick cushion?
It is possible to win wars in different ways – a quick decision as we saw at the start of World War II, through attrition and “resource war” – the one who can produce the most wins, or by manipulating the world, which South Africa experienced. Then you can fight with guerrillas or liberation movements but that usually requires internal divisions within the country and finally a nationwide underdog defensive war, or war, where you simply go all in with your entire population as in Vietnam.
One is sometimes tricked into thinking that all wars do not require continuous resources but they do, and almost exclusively there is a third party behind guerrillas and liberation movements.
The interesting thing about this war is that Ukraine uses all different types of warfare, an asymmetric warfare simply – a nationwide defensive war with extensive system-threatening sabotage in Russia and a “resource war” where the one who can build the most tanks wins.
They were quite close to a quick victory in 2022 if the West hadn’t half-slept and Zalizhny was stopped, so I find it hard to doubt that Ukraine will win this.
But it has taken far too long and hundreds of thousands of soldiers are mentally unrecoverable as they have simply been in combat for too long and a couple hundred thousand are probably disabled.
Sure, it is possible to rebuild infrastructure and housing but the question is always how ambitious it will be and I guess that when this is over there will still be hundreds of thousands with demolished houses and no money to rebuild them again.
In a broader perspective, a longer war is unfortunate as it constantly increases the risk of global conflict or a serious recession that makes the West pull back.
October 7 with Venezuela’s sabre-rattling, Houthi rocket attacks in the Red Sea, Iran’s piracy in the Strait of Hormuz, and the African Corps’ entry into Africa was an ambitious attempt to raise the global temperature.
Then subversive activity in Europe has increased manifold and at least I am quite sure that our time’s 1968 movement has Russian influence.
That is why it was so pleasing to see China go to the EU and then not visit Putin on his big day – signal politics as good as any.
China has also asked Iran to sit down.
And the visit to Macron was interesting because Macropoleon is Putin’s biggest enemy right now.
I usually get (mildly) accused of China being my blind spot so I won’t push this too far but there is a chance that China is seriously trying to end the war and has understood that it only works with the 1991 borders, we’ll see. That Xi goes on a reconciliation trip to the EU instead of visiting Russia is new at least.
Want to push this again from Erik14 early May, a very important puzzle piece, one of the more important – very short on missiles!!
GUR named the approximate stocks of missiles in Russia:
• 40 Zircon: production rates – up to 10 missiles/month;
• 400 Onyx/Onyx-M: production rate – up to 10 missiles/month.
• 270 Kalibr: production rate – 30-40 missiles/month.
• 45 Kh-69: production rate – 1-3 missiles/month
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3krgrsmtgnk2t
On my list I now have a total of 30 major bombings of Russian refineries, a couple are second overflights.
So around 15 oil depots should have been attacked since the turn of the year as a couple of the liberation acts against the refineries are second overflights.
https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1789582450324070727?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The following will not happen but describes Putin’s ambitions,
The “sinking bomb” had a link sometime ago that Putin is ready to “test the West” by attacking Estonia and Sweden (Gotland?).
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/putin-ready-invasion-nato-nations-test-west-polish-spy-boss/
Unclear why not Finland and everything is of course a one-sided statement from Poland but…
Russia was confident enough in the West’s passivity that they launched their three-day operation against Ukraine.
Russia was also so sure of themselves that they started the global escalation on October 7, 2023.
They are also confident in the West’s passivity towards their recolonization of Africa and their shadow fleet that traffics the Baltic Sea and violates sanctions as well as all kinds of environmental laws.
That they are trying to overthrow Moldova is a poorly kept secret and Putin has no doubts about it – he knows the West will do nothing.
Putin also feels that support for Ukraine is manageable – there was some kind of compromise where several countries promised large support and then sent very little for a long time.
What happened in agreement with Putin the first two years we may never know perhaps but that the West tried to force Zelensky into negotiations last autumn I consider a reasonable assumption.
The only one who has really seriously worried Putin is the unpredictable Macropoleon.
The other thing Putin doesn’t like is that the UK has removed its geographical restrictions but not before an SS explodes inside Russia, then they have done it, right?
The Baltic states are definitely next in line along with Moldova if Putin is not forced to back down.
I also worry that the world as a whole is beginning to feel that the West is weak, the tone from rogue states is quite high.
We all understand that the West would win a global conflict but if it is allowed to escalate, the suffering will be magnitudes worse than it is today, many more Ukrainians.
Have you realized that until 1989 we had the Soviet Union with its saber-rattling, proxy wars, direct wars, occupations, and subversive activities.
Then we had 25 calm years and after that we are actually there again with the Russian threat I grew up with and trained against during conscription.
What is the normal state – Russia today as it was for 80 years or a “democratic” Russia as it was for 15 years?
Before WW2 ended, it wasn’t much better either, so we can add 25 years to that – 95 years.
And before that was the Tsarist regime with all its wars.
The point then becomes, what makes the West believe that Russia will return to the democratic 15 years when they have behaved exactly like this since the beginning of the 1900s and even since the 1700s?
Very interesting, Siberian battalion urges Russian soldiers up in Kharkiv to desert.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3ksc4mfjsok26
I found this interesting regarding T…p and the 2016 election
https://x.com/sethabramson/status/1787543910509666332?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Ukraine now has a domestically produced missile for big bangs in the Kremlin 😀
https://x.com/arturrehi/status/1787477413795926097?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
A Russian firing position for GRK with a movable camouflaged roof – starting to look semi-professional 😐
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1787400922831659071?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w